Pre-Open US

[Zforex]

US INDICES:

S&P 500 Futures Stable as Markets Await Jerome Powell's Comments on Interest Rates

S&P 500 futures traded without significant change on Thursday morning as Wall Street kept a close eye on a crucial bond yield benchmark and awaited comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Futures linked to the broad market remained relatively stable, while Nasdaq-100 futures showed a minor increase of 0.1%.

Traders are eagerly anticipating Powell's remarks for insights into the future of interest rates. Despite some improvements in inflation indicators, the persistent rise in Treasury yields has led to questions about the central bank's potential monetary policy decisions. Additionally, Thursday is expected to bring data on weekly jobless claims and existing home sales for September.

Tesla, a major player in the electric vehicle industry, saw its stock drop by nearly 7% as the company fell short of earnings and revenue expectations in the third quarter. CEO Elon Musk also issued a warning that the company's Cybertruck might not generate significant positive cash flow more than a year after production begins.

Conversely, Netflix shares experienced a significant surge of over 13% after the streaming giant reported third-quarter earnings that exceeded estimates. The company's strong growth in ad-tier subscriptions contributed to this positive performance.

A descending triangle is forming. The resistance level of 15,300, where the median line of the long bullish channel and the downtrend line coincide played as expected a solid level of resistance and price coming back. The next support level is at 14850 and 14450.

USOIL

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Crude Oil Prices Slide as OPEC Rejects Iran's Call for Israel Oil Embargo

Crude oil prices edged lower after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries showed no signs of supporting Iran's call for an oil embargo on Israel.

Oil prices saw an increase the previous day following Iran's foreign minister's proposal for an oil embargo on Israel. Although the volumes at risk are minimal, this move heightened regional tensions and raised market concerns.

Meanwhile, the US Energy Information Administration reported a drawdown in crude inventories of 4.5 million barrels last week. Gasoline and distillate stockpiles also fell 2.4 million barrels and 3.2 million barrels, respectively. Supplies at the key Cushing hub are nearing minimum operating requirements, the bank noted.

Strong volatility continues and WTI is losing close to 1.75% today. No clear direction can be seen with an uncertain geopolitical outlook.

Crypto

False SEC Approval Report Sparks Bitcoin Surge and Raises ETF Expectations

Monday's false report of U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approval for BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF caused a 10% price spike to $30,000, settling at $28,000. This revealed concerns about market manipulation and surveillance issues. On the positive side, it indicated significant capital readiness for an ETF approval, challenging the idea that it was already priced in.

Dick Lo, TDX Strategies' CEO, noted that the event gave a preview of what might happen upon ETF approval, suggesting that the market could be underinvested and open to building positions.

Speculation mounts for SEC approval of the first U.S. spot ETF early next year after the regulator missed a deadline related to Grayscale Investments. Blockware Solutions analysts agree, stating that BTC's price will surge rapidly upon approval. In the short term, Bitcoin options pricing indicates bullish sentiment, with call options favored. Ether options show improved sentiment, though less bullish than Bitcoin.

Volatility on Bitcoin increased, and the price hit the 30000 target before coming back to the 28325 level. The 100MA on the weekly chart will be the challenge for the beginning of a solid bullish momentum.

 

[Zforex]

US INDICES:

Market Turbulence and Tech Earnings Awaited Amid Rising Treasury Yields
On Monday, stock futures declined as Treasury yields increased, and traders awaited earnings reports from major tech companies. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures both dropped by 0.8% and 0.9%, respectively.
The 10-year Treasury note yield rose approximately 9 basis points, surpassing the critical 5% threshold. Yields for the 2-year note and 30-year bond also saw increases.
This market shift coincides with traders evaluating potential future monetary policy actions by the Federal Reserve. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated last week that high inflation persists and hinted at the potential necessity of slowing economic growth to address these pressures.
Wall Street had a challenging week, with the S&P 500 recording a 2.4% decline, marking its first losing week in three, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 3.2%, its second consecutive weekly loss.
Major tech giants, including Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft, are expected to release their earnings reports, which will be closely watched by investors.
Traders are also preparing for the release of key economic data this week, including Thursday's third-quarter advance report for U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) and Friday's release of the personal consumption expenditure, an inflation measure. Investors are concerned that stronger-than-expected data could keep the possibility of another interest rate hike this year on the table.
On a daily basis, a descending triangle is taking shape. The resistance at 15,300, where the median line of the extended bullish channel aligns with the downtrend line, acted as a robust resistance point as anticipated. This has led to more pronounced losses in the short term, intensifying the selloff toward the subsequent support levels at 14,850 and 14,450.
USOIL

Geopolitical Tensions and Supply Uncertainty Drive Crude Oil Price Momentum
Crude oil prices are likely to remain well-supported as tensions in the Middle East justify a certain geopolitical risk premium for the time being, especially as the oil market is significantly undersupplied as well. Any broadening of the conflict could put up to 20 million barrels per day at risk of disruption directly and through obstructed logistics.
The United States has suspended sanctions on Venezuelan oil, potentially leading to an increase in the country's oil exports to over 0.5 million barrels per day.
The International Energy Agency is scheduled to release a long-term outlook on Tuesday, and the bank will be closely monitoring the agency's projections regarding when and where global oil demand is expected to reach its peak.
Strong volatility continues while the direction is more bullish. The last resistance level at 94 could be the closest level to watch as the situation is not stable.

Crypto

Bitcoin Breaks Free with Eyes on ETF Approval
On Monday, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies surged, outperforming stocks. Bitcoin's price rose 2% in the past 24 hours, reaching over $30,450, breaking free from a months-long trading range at around $26,000. This rally, which began about ten days ago, is the most significant in four months. A consolidation above $31,000 could push prices toward $36,000.
While stocks like the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 have been under pressure due to rising government bond yields, cryptocurrencies remain resilient. Bitcoin's optimism is driven by the potential approval of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
The prospect of a spot Bitcoin ETF has been on the horizon for months, with financial giants like BlackRock filing for such funds. However, while the technical outlook remains positive, it could take months for an ETF to be approved. Additionally, ongoing stock market weakness and rising Treasury yields could potentially trigger institutional selling in the crypto market. Beyond Bitcoin, Ether, Cardano, Polygon, Dogecoin, and Shiba Inu have all experienced positive price movements.
Bitcoin is bullish and 31690 is the weekly resistance level that challenges the price for making a long run and building momentum.

 

[Zforex]

Global Markets Tumble Amid Earnings Worries and Bond Yield Surge​

The Asian market experienced a substantial sell-off, with Japan and South Korean benchmark indexes leading the region's declines. In Australia, shares closed at a level not witnessed for over a year, as investors drew insights from Wall Street's overnight performance.

In Europe, stock markets opened with a sharp decline on Thursday, with a focus on third-quarter earnings and government bond yields. Notable developments included Unilever Plc falling due to a third-quarter sales miss, WPP Plc dropping more than 5% after revising its revenue growth outlook, Mercedes-Benz Group AG declining by 6% as it projected car-making margins at the lower end of its forecast, and Standard Chartered Plc's shares falling after missing profit estimates.

On Wall Street, a series of corporate earnings reports drove stock prices lower, with notable impact from Meta Inc.'s uncertain earnings outlook and Google parent Alphabet Inc.'s underwhelming cloud-related figures.

Furthermore, the 10-year Japanese government bond yield reached a fresh 10-year high ahead of a central bank meeting next week, pushing the yen past 150 per dollar and raising the risk of intervention from authorities in Tokyo. Japan's finance minister, Shunichi Suzuki, emphasized their vigilant monitoring of currency movements.

Simultaneously, monetary policy decisions are expected from the European Central Bank, where a hold in interest rates is highly anticipated, and the central bank of Turkey, with economists polled by Reuters, expects a 500 basis point hike to 35%.

Later on Thursday, a flurry of data, including US Initial jobless claims and GDP numbers, will offer a fresh snapshot of the world's largest economy. Global increases in bond yields are also casting a shadow over the markets. Recent volatility may influence the ECB's decisions on quantitative tightening, while the gradual rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is causing concerns about the outlook for stocks.

US Q3 GDP Report Awaited as USD Seeks Direction

United States' Gross Domestic Product is forecast to grow at an annual rate of 4.2% in Q3. The pair is in a bearish corrective phase ahead of the release. After data released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the market sentiment will determine USD direction.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report for the third quarter, to be released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on October 26th, is expected to show an expansion of the US economy at an annualized rate of 4.2% after the 2.1% expansion recorded in the second quarter's GDP report.

The US Dollar (USD) has been easing against its major rivals after reaching fresh year tops in early October on the back of speculation the Federal Reserve (Fed) will refrain from hiking rates any further. Policymakers, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell included, had suggested that high government bond yields are tightening monetary conditions enough to prevent them from acting. Even further, Powell noted that a recession is no longer a base case scenario for the central bank when he announced the September monetary policy decision. However, financial markets remain concerned about economic progress, and the recent war between Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas has revived concerns about global growth.

EUR/USD is selling for the third day coming back toward the 10500-support level and continuing the price range started this month. Data this week and especially for today will dictate a possible comeback or a breakout.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.0930	1.0800	1.0700	1.0630	1.0500	1.0400

Sterling Heads Towards Seven-Month Low with Ongoing Geopolitical Tensions

The Pound Sterling is declining toward a seven-month low as Israel-Palestine tensions dampen the market mood. Labor demand in the UK has started facing the repercussions of poor business activity. A steady interest rate decision is anticipated from the BoE to avoid a recession.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) continues to face intense selling pressure as dismal market sentiment due to escalating tensions in the Middle East combines with a poor economic outlook for the United Kingdom. The GBP/USD pair continues its losing streak for the third trading session in a row as labor market conditions and business activity in the UK region are deteriorating due to a decline in new business orders.

A string of weak economic indicators from the UK economy have dented expectations of more interest rate hikes from the Bank of England (BoE). The central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 5.25% to avoid further economic casualties. The BoE is widely anticipated to keep interest rates unchanged as a further increase in borrowing costs could push the economy into a recession.

GBPUSD is approaching the critical support level at 1.2070, while it awaits today's developments for further guidance. The pair is bearish and more selloffs can come with the actual strength of the dollar and the weakness of the pound.

Resistance 3​	Resistance 2​	Resistance 1​	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.2450​	1.2300​	1.2200​	1.2000	1.1900	1.1800

Japanese Yen Gains Momentum, Testing 150.00 Against the US Dollar

10-year Japanese government bond yield reached a fresh 10-year high ahead of a central bank meeting next week, pushing the yen past 150 per dollar and raising the risk of intervention from authorities in Tokyo.

The USD/JPY pair fell sharply from 150.70 to 149.90 during the early European session on Thursday. The Japanese Yen soars against the US Dollar (USD) amid the suspect FX intervention by the Japanese authorities. At the press time, the USD/JPY pair is gaining 0.15% on the day to trade at 150.43.

On Thursday, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said that the currency intervention is not a contradiction of the policy of shifting money away from savings towards investment. However, investors brace for a possible move if the yen breaches the 150.00 threshold against the USD.

The USDJPY is trying to break 150.00 while the volatility is high at this level between a dollar that is strong and a BoJ that is ready for intervention to help the yen.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
152.70	151.50	150.00	148.00	146.50	146.00

Gold Price Resilient Following Geopolitical Concerns

Gold price attracts some buyers for the second straight day amid geopolitical concerns. Bulls seem rather unaffected by rising US Treasury bond yields and a stronger US Dollar. Investors look to the Advance US Q3 GDP growth figures for some meaningful impetus.

Gold price gains some positive traction for the second successive day on Thursday and maintained its bid tone near the weekly top during the early part of the European session. The precious metal remains well within the striking distance of its highest level since May 16 touched last Friday and continues to attract some haven flows in the wake of the risk of a potential escalation in the Israel-Hamas war. This, to a larger extent, offset a further rise in the US Treasury bond yields, bolstered by hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, which pushes the US Dollar to a three-week high and tends to undermine the non-yielding yellow metal.

Moving ahead, investors now look forward to important macro releases from the United States for cues on the Fed's future rate-hike path, which will play a key role in determining the near-term trajectory of the gold price. The US economic calendar for Thursday prominently features the release of the Advance Q3 GDP figures, complemented by data on Durable Goods Orders, the customary Weekly Initial Jobless Claims report, and subsequent Pending Home Sales statistics. This, along with Fed Governor Christopher Waller's scheduled speech and the US bond yields, might influence the USD price dynamics and allow traders to grab short-term opportunities around the XAU/USD.

Gold has breached the $1,980 level, advancing towards the $2,000 mark and potentially targeting $2,020. This surge is partly attributed to the prevailing risk-off sentiment in the markets, which is bolstering gold's strong bullish momentum.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
2021​	2000​	1980​	1947​	1930​	1912​

Oil Prices Fall on Increased US Crude Stockpiles and Dollar Index Boost

Investors monitor developments in the Israel-Hamas conflict. Oil prices fell on Thursday after a rise in U.S. crude stockpiles and a climb in the dollar index, giving up some ground gained a day earlier when prices jumped on Middle East tensions. The benchmark oil contracts had settled nearly 2% higher on Wednesday but fell back after the Wall Street Journal reported that Israel has agreed to delay an expected invasion of Gaza for now. Investors were also digesting a rise in U.S. crude inventories, indicative of weak demand. U.S. crude inventories climbed by 1.4 million barrels in the latest week to 421.1 million barrels, according to the Energy Information Administration, exceeding the 240,000-barrel gain expected. Crude runs in the U.S. fell by 207,000 barrels per day, while refinery utilization rates also edged lower by 0.5 percentage points to 85.6% of total capacity, EIA data showed. Macroeconomic concerns continued to weigh on the outlook for oil demand, as eurozone business activity data took a surprise downturn this month. The dollar index was also up slightly on Thursday, which helped pressure oil prices. A stronger dollar dampens oil demand as it makes the commodity more expensive for those holding other currencies.

WTI rebounded from the 82-support level and stands now at the first resistance level at 85.4. The price of oil continues its volatility without a clear direction for this month.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
98​	94​	90​	84​	82​	78​

 

[Zforex]

US INDICES:

Amazon's Strong Earnings Propel Tech Stocks
U.S. stock futures are set to rebound on Friday, following significant losses this week. Amazon's impressive quarterly results have given a boost to tech-related shares, with Nasdaq 100 futures rising by 0.9% and S&P 500 futures advancing by 0.5%. Amazon exceeded expectations, surging nearly 6% after reporting strong revenue and earnings for the third quarter. Other tech giants like Alphabet and Microsoft also saw gains in premarket trading. Additionally, Intel's stock rose due to better-than-expected earnings and a positive revenue outlook.
Thursday was a challenging day for Wall Street, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite experiencing losses of over 1%, setting the stage for significant weekly declines. Investors are now closely watching for the release of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data for September, a key inflation measure favored by the Federal Reserve, which could be a potential market mover on Friday.
The price is continuing to decline, with more selloffs, and breaking the descending triangle pattern indicates further selloffs, with the next target being 14000.

Crypto

Santiment Analysis Suggests Delay in Cryptocurrency Market Correction
In a recent post, blockchain intelligence platform Santiment shared that a correction in the cryptocurrency market may not happen soon. This is due to the recent market upturn, with Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies experiencing a significant increase in their values. According to Santiment, Bitcoin still has a considerable number of active addresses, and there is a healthy level of previously dormant tokens now being moved. This behavior has historically been linked to positivity in the market.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin currently finds crucial support at the $34,000 level. Despite recently reaching a peak of $35,280, the cryptocurrency's value has gradually receded over the past 48 hours. This puts Bitcoin at risk of potentially dropping to the $31,400 support level in the coming days. This bearish thesis may be confirmed if Bitcoin's price breaks below the $34K mark in the next 24-48 hours, which could result in a short-term drop to as low as $28,760 if sellers continue to exert pressure. Adding to this bearish sentiment is the formation of a bearish ascending triangle on Bitcoin's daily chart, which suggests that a pullback may be imminent.
On the other hand, Bitcoin is entering buying territory and building momentum. Bullish traders awaited the breakout of the first resistance level, which is at 35000 followed by the second one at 42500.

 

[Zforex]

US INDICES:

Amazon's Strong Earnings Propel Tech Stocks
U.S. stock futures are set to rebound on Friday, following significant losses this week. Amazon's impressive quarterly results have given a boost to tech-related shares, with Nasdaq 100 futures rising by 0.9% and S&P 500 futures advancing by 0.5%. Amazon exceeded expectations, surging nearly 6% after reporting strong revenue and earnings for the third quarter. Other tech giants like Alphabet and Microsoft also saw gains in premarket trading. Additionally, Intel's stock rose due to better-than-expected earnings and a positive revenue outlook.
Thursday was a challenging day for Wall Street, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite experiencing losses of over 1%, setting the stage for significant weekly declines. Investors are now closely watching for the release of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data for September, a key inflation measure favored by the Federal Reserve, which could be a potential market mover on Friday.
The price is continuing to decline, with more selloffs, and breaking the descending triangle pattern indicates further selloffs, with the next target being 14000.

Crypto

Santiment Analysis Suggests Delay in Cryptocurrency Market Correction
In a recent post, blockchain intelligence platform Santiment shared that a correction in the cryptocurrency market may not happen soon. This is due to the recent market upturn, with Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies experiencing a significant increase in their values. According to Santiment, Bitcoin still has a considerable number of active addresses, and there is a healthy level of previously dormant tokens now being moved. This behavior has historically been linked to positivity in the market.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin currently finds crucial support at the $34,000 level. Despite recently reaching a peak of $35,280, the cryptocurrency's value has gradually receded over the past 48 hours. This puts Bitcoin at risk of potentially dropping to the $31,400 support level in the coming days. This bearish thesis may be confirmed if Bitcoin's price breaks below the $34K mark in the next 24-48 hours, which could result in a short-term drop to as low as $28,760 if sellers continue to exert pressure. Adding to this bearish sentiment is the formation of a bearish ascending triangle on Bitcoin's daily chart, which suggests that a pullback may be imminent.
On the other hand, Bitcoin is entering buying territory and building momentum. Bullish traders awaited the breakout of the first resistance level, which is at 35000 followed by the second one at 42500.

 

[Zforex]

US INDICES:

U.S. Stock Futures Rise Ahead of Key Week with Fed Rate Decision
U.S. stock futures rose on Monday as traders braced for a big week filled with a Federal Reserve rate decision, jobs report and Apple’s earnings report.
Wednesday's decision is due from the Federal Reserve, which is widely expected to keep its key interest rate at the same level. With rising interest rates the main reason for the stock market correction, investors are hoping the Fed will signal that it may be done raising rates. Traders believe that the Fed will not raise rates again until at least 2023.
The S&P 500 entered correction territory last week, falling by 2.5% and marking a 10.6% decline from its 2023 high. It is currently down by 4% for October, heading for its third consecutive negative month, the first such streak since 2020 when the pandemic hit. The Nasdaq Composite has fallen by over 12% from its 2023 peak and is firmly in correction territory.
The technology sector had mixed performance, with several mega-cap companies reporting earnings with varying results, negatively affecting the US stock market, especially the Nasdaq. The focus will now shift to Apple's earnings, which are significant for the week.
The price continues to fall, with further sell-offs, and the break of the descending triangle pattern indicates further sell-offs, with the next target at 14000.




Crypto

Crypto Market Shows Strength as Bitcoin Nears May 2022 Highs
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies experienced an upward surge on Monday, reaching the upper end of a range formed during a two-week rally. The Bitcoin price rose 1% in the last 24 hours to $34,600, approaching the previous week's high of over $35,000. This high marked the highest point for Bitcoin since the significant downturn in May 2022.
Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin has rallied by approximately 30%, fueled by the optimistic expectation that regulators will approve the first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). This optimism has triggered renewed investor interest in digital assets.
Cryptocurrency enthusiasts are focused on the possibility of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) granting approval for a spot Bitcoin ETF. However, the cryptocurrency market could be influenced by a busy week in financial markets. U.S. equities are expected to react to the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision on Wednesday and various economic data, including the U.S. jobs report scheduled for Friday. Investors are continuously adjusting their expectations regarding interest rates, which can also impact cryptocurrencies. If the Federal Reserve's decisions or economic data significantly affect the stock market, Bitcoin may also respond accordingly.
Apart from Bitcoin, Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency, saw a 2% increase, reaching $1,820. Smaller tokens or altcoins also experienced gains, with Cardano rising by 2% and Polygon surging by 3%. Memecoins, on the other hand, had a relatively stable performance, with Dogecoin and Shiba Inu trading at similar levels. On the other hand, Bitcoin is entering buying territory and building momentum. Bullish traders are awaiting the breakout of the first resistance level, which is at 35000, followed by the second one at 42500.

 

[Zforex]

US INDICES:

Stock Futures Look to Sustain Momentum as October Ends with Negative Month

Stock futures saw gains on the last day of the month as Wall Street aimed to sustain momentum from the prior session. S&P 500 futures were up by 0.2%, while Nasdaq 100 futures increased by 0.1%. However, major indices are set to close the month in the negative, with the Dow and S&P 500 down 1.7% and 2.8% for October, marking their third consecutive month of losses. The Nasdaq has also declined by over 3% this month, heading for its third consecutive month of negative performance. Wall Street is closely watching the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision, expected to keep rates steady, as indicated by Fed funds futures. Additionally, investors await the October employment report, hoping for insights into potential labor market slowdowns, set to be released on Friday.

The price experienced a correction yesterday, but it was relatively minor within the prevailing bearish trend. The price remains in close proximity to a strong support level at 14,000, where the 200-day moving average (200MA) also provides important support.

Crypto

Cryptocurrencies Stabilize with Growing Optimism for Ether

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies remained relatively stable on Tuesday, holding on to recent gains while analysts expressed growing optimism about Ether, the second-largest digital asset.

Bitcoin's price saw a minor dip of less than 1% over the past 24 hours, settling at $34,425. In the last two weeks, Bitcoin surged by 30%, briefly crossing $35,000, marking its highest level since May 2022, when the crypto market experienced a harsh bear market. This rally brought back Bitcoin's characteristic price volatility after months of historically low trading volumes.

The recent surge in Bitcoin is primarily attributed to hopes of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) soon approving the first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). This ETF would hold actual Bitcoin instead of futures tracking the cryptocurrency. It's seen as a significant catalyst for attracting both retail and institutional investors, driving Bitcoin's outperformance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500.

The Bitcoin rally has also improved the overall crypto market, reviving the momentum of Ether, the Ethereum blockchain token. While Ether saw a 1% decline on Tuesday, trading at $1,800, it has risen 17% since mid-October, reaching its highest level since August. Analysts note that the technical market backdrop for Ether is improving.

Bitcoin momentum is strong and any breakout beyond the 35000 resistance level will take the price toward the next target of 40000.

 

[Zforex]

US INDICES:

US Stock Futures Dip as Investors Await Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision
US stock futures edged lower on Wednesday, with investors bracing for the Federal Reserve's upcoming decision on interest rates, capping off a difficult month. Both S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures saw declines of around 0.4%. The focus is on the Fed, where there's a strong consensus—over 99% probability per the CME FedWatch Tool—that rates will hold steady. Despite November's reputation for market strength, investor caution prevails due to a surge in October's benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield to over 5%, raising concerns over the potential drag of persistently high interest rates.
The price continued its second-day correction yesterday, where the next resistance is at 14550. Today will be a volatile day and support will be at 14000.

Crypto

Bitcoin Holds Steady at $34,450 Ahead of Federal Reserve Rate Decision
Bitcoin ticked higher on Wednesday, holding at $34,450 as markets eye the Federal Reserve's rate decision, a potential macroeconomic influence on crypto. The cryptocurrency has maintained these levels for a week, rallying 30% since mid-October and reviving interest in a previously quiet market. Enthusiasm for possible SEC approval of Bitcoin ETFs has fueled this uptick, suggesting a decoupling from stock market trends and a stronger correlation with gold, especially amidst geopolitical uncertainties. Today's Fed announcement could test Bitcoin's current macroeconomic resilience, as the Dow and S&P 500 may react to the interest rate verdict, a scenario that historically would see Bitcoin follow suit. With the Fed expected to maintain rates, the decision could clarify the future of borrowing costs, impacting risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin momentum is strong and any breakout beyond the 35000-resistance level will take the price toward the next target of 40000.

 

[Zforex]

US INDICES:

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures Rise After a Strong Week

U.S. equity futures were slightly higher on Monday after the major averages capped their best week of the year. S&P 500 futures ticked higher by 0.2% along with Nasdaq-100 futures. The S&P advanced 5.85% in that time, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 6.6%. It was the best week since November 2022 for both indexes.

In October, job creation in the U.S. slowed down, aligning with long-standing expectations of a deceleration and potentially easing pressure on the Federal Reserve's battle against inflation. The release of a subdued monthly jobs report pushed bond yields lower, providing a lift to the equity market.

The week ahead will be light on economic data and company earnings, seasonal tailwinds could help further the recovery in stocks. November historically stands as the best-performing month for the S&P 500.

More information about how policymakers see the trajectory of inflation may come later in the week, with speeches due from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey.

The price has initiated a reversal movement and is currently testing a resistance area above the 15,000 level. A breakout above this level would signal the emergence of a new bullish trend and a potential buying opportunity.

Crypto

Bitcoin and Ethereum Maintain Momentum Despite ETF Speculations

Despite expectations of a crypto market slowdown following fading Spot Bitcoin ETF rumors, a notable crypto analyst suggests that Bitcoin and Ethereum could maintain their upward trajectory. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez revealed that the crypto market has seen approximately $10.97 billion in positive capital inflows, the highest this year, indicating strong investor bullishness.

Martinez also highlighted the creation of over 700,000 new BTC addresses on November 4, signaling potential new capital entering the market. The reasons for these inflows remain uncertain, with speculation ranging from institutional anticipation of SEC approval for Spot Bitcoin ETFs to the upcoming Bitcoin Halving event in April 2024.

Additionally, overseas regulators, such as Hong Kong's Securities and Financial Commission (SFC), are considering crypto ETFs, while the US SEC remains cautious. This divergence highlights varying regulatory approaches globally and underscores the growing interest in cryptocurrencies beyond the United States.

Bitcoin is testing breaking the 35000-resistance level. Any breakout will take the price directly to the next target at the 46700 level.

 

[Zforex]

US INDICES:

US Stock Futures Hold Steady as S&P 500 and Nasdaq Enjoy Winning Streaks
On Wednesday, the futures for the U.S. stock market remained relatively unchanged. This comes after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices achieved their longest winning streaks in about two years. The S&P 500 recorded a 0.3% gain, resulting in seven consecutive positive trading sessions, while the Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.9%, marking its eighth consecutive day of gains. Both indices have not seen such a consistent positive trend since November 2021.
These gains are attributed to about 80% of S&P 500 companies beating earnings estimates this season. Traders are keeping a close eye on global central bankers' response to the drop in government bond yields, which could hinder efforts to control inflation.
If the Fed decides to execute a monetary policy pivot, allowing the economy to avoid a recession, global equities might be poised for a rally.
The Nasdaq has ventured into a bullish territory by surpassing the 15,000 resistance level. Its next milestone is to overcome the previous high of 16,000.


Crypto

Cochran Suggests Correlation Between Bitcoin Price and US Treasury Auctions
Cryptocurrency expert Adam Cochran, founder of Cinneamhain Ventures, recently shared intriguing insights on the connection between Bitcoin price movements and US Treasury auctions via X (formerly Twitter). Cochran noted a pattern where Bitcoin's price surges after successful US Treasury auctions, suggesting a correlation between the two.
His theory centers on real interest rates, which adjust interest rates for inflation. Cochran posits that when US Treasury auctions perform well, indicating lower yields and real rates, Bitcoin's price rises. This trend, according to Cochran, indicates a belief that significant funds will flow into Bitcoin as a hedge against real interest rates.
This observation gains significance as discussions about Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) intensify. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has engaged with applicants like BlackRock and Fidelity, enhancing the correlation. Cochran also highlights Bitcoin's ability to draw momentum away from other market sectors during upswings.
While back-testing data is limited due to the recent emergence of this trend, Cochran's insights offer a compelling narrative linking traditional finance with Bitcoin, offering valuable insights for investors as the conversation around Bitcoin ETFs gains momentum.
Today, comments from Powell could influence market sentiment and directly impact risk within the crypto market. Bitcoin is currently testing the 35,000-resistance level, and a breakout would propel the price directly toward the next target at the 46,700 area.