Pre-Open US

[Zforex]

US INDICES:

Apple's stock declined by 2.9% following a Bloomberg News report indicating that China might expand its ban on the use of iPhones in state-owned entities and agencies. This led to a downturn in technology and semiconductor stocks, with Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices seeing drops of 1.7% and 2.5%, respectively. Seagate Technology experienced a significant decline of nearly 11%, while Skyworks Solutions, Qualcomm, and Qorvo saw reductions of at least 7%.
On Thursday, a series of economic data points, including lower-than-expected jobless claims, raised concerns that the Federal Reserve might reconsider its tight monetary policy stance due to the robust labor market. Weekly jobless claims stood at 216,000, below the Dow Jones estimate of 230,000, and second-quarter labor costs increased more than anticipated.
The recent rise in energy prices, coupled with a strong job market, could prompt the Federal Reserve to take further action, potentially approving more interest rate hikes, as stated by Zaccarelli.
While 93% of traders are currently pricing in a rate pause at the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the possibility of additional hikes in November has increased to approximately 43%, according to the CME Fed Watch tool.
Nasdaq is coming back to the 15,300-support level as support right now and heading towards the 16,000 mark, its previous peak. This higher level presents a formidable challenge for further advancement. Notably, media coverage appears to be providing solid support for the price, and even the bearish pattern that was emerging earlier seems to have lost its significance.

USOIL

The price increase this week was primarily fueled by Saudi Arabia's decision to prolong its production cut and Russia's extension of its export cut.
Saudi Arabia and Russia announced earlier in the week that they would maintain their production curb of 1.3 million barrels per day until the end of the year. This announcement initially led to prices reaching their highest levels in nearly a year. However, prices have since retreated due to several factors.
Factors contributing to the price retreat include concerns about Chinese demand, a strong U.S. dollar, and profit-taking by investors. Despite a report indicating robust oil demand in China, uncertainty about Chinese demand persisted. China's oil imports saw significant increases in August, but doubts remained. Additionally, the strong U.S. dollar benefited from expectations that the Federal Reserve had completed its rate hikes. Profit-taking also played a role as investors cashed in on recent price surges.
The decline in U.S. crude oil inventories over the past four weeks, with the latest estimate showing a draw of over 6 million barrels, provided support for this week's rally. Some experts pointed to these inventory draws as a sign of strong domestic demand in the largest global economy.

While there is renewed speculation about oil prices reaching triple digits and OPEC+ production cuts continue to limit downside risks, concerns about demand persist and could pose challenges in the future.
The WTI touched the higher highs at the 88 level but started forming a price action signaling a possible correction and divergence with RSI on a 4H chart. If price continues the next resistance level will be around 90.

Crypto

Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments recently published a report outlining why 2024 could be a pivotal year for Bitcoin. The report highlights three key factors driving this potential: Bitcoin's role as an inflation hedge, the upcoming Halving event in April 2024, and the impact of ETF approvals.
First, Edwards defends Bitcoin's performance as an inflation hedge, citing its impressive 1000% rise from Q1-2020 to Q1-2021 in response to the Federal Reserve's massive QE packages. He asserts that Bitcoin was a remarkable inflation hedge during this period.
Secondly, Edwards emphasizes the significance of the upcoming Bitcoin Halving in April 2024, which will reduce Bitcoin's supply growth rate to 0.8% p.a., lower than that of Gold for the first time. He dismisses the notion that the Halving is already priced in and suggests that historical data and on-chain metrics indicate its importance.
Lastly, Edwards discusses the regulatory landscape, mentioning the CFTC's classification of Bitcoin as a commodity, Blackrock's Bitcoin ETF application, and the SEC's reconsideration of the Grayscale spot ETF rejection. He draws parallels to the gold ETF approval in 2004, which triggered a significant bull run.
Technically, BTC continues hovering around solid support/resistance level around the 28000 mark. The next support is expected around the 25000 level.​

 

[Zforex]

US INDICES:

NASDAQ

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Futures Dip Amidst iPhone 15 Launch, Focus on August CPI Report and Fed Rate Expectations
S&P 500 futures declined by 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures also saw a 0.1% drop. On Tuesday, Apple's stock experienced a 1.8% decrease following the unveiling of the iPhone 15 during its "Wonderlust" launch event in Cupertino.
Now, attention on Wall Street is shifting towards the release of the August CPI report scheduled for Wednesday morning. Economists are predicting a 3.6% year-over-year increase and a 0.6% monthly uptick in inflation, according to Dow Jones. These figures represent an uptick from the previous month's readings of 3.2% and 0.2%, respectively. As for the Core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs due to their volatility, it is expected to have risen by 4.3% compared to the previous year, a slight decrease from the 4.7% annual gain observed in July. The monthly core increase is projected to be 0.2%.
Furthermore, Wall Street seems to have factored in an expectation that the Federal Reserve will likely maintain current interest rates at its upcoming meeting. As of Wednesday morning, Fed funds futures pricing data indicates a 93% probability of rates staying unchanged.
Nasdaq is currently retracing towards the 15,300-support level and aiming for the 16,000 mark, its previous peak. This higher level poses a significant challenge for further advancement. Additionally, the median line of the long bullish channel continues to support the trend.

USOIL

Tight Crude Supply Helps Oil Prices Climb, With Brent Eyeing $100 Per Barrel
Oil prices reached a 10-month high due to expectations of ongoing tight crude supply. Saudi Arabia and Russia decided to extend their crude oil production cuts by 1.3 million barrels per day until the end of the year, creating a substantial market deficit in the fourth quarter, as reported by the International Energy Agency (IEA). Bank of America analysts suggest that these supply cuts could push Brent futures above $100 per barrel before the year's end.
The spread between front-month Brent futures contracts and those for delivery six months later widened to $4.68 per barrel, indicating a tighter supply in the market.
Concerns lingered regarding the European and US economies, with investors closely watching the release of US consumer price index data for potential insights into future interest rate adjustments. There were expectations of an interest rate increase by the European Central Bank at its upcoming meeting.
The IEA adjusted its fourth-quarter demand growth forecast downward by 600,000 barrels per day, roughly matching the additional voluntary cut made by Saudi Arabia. On the other hand, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) maintained its optimistic outlook for global oil demand growth in 2023 and 2024.
In Libya, four oil ports that were temporarily closed due to severe storms reopened on Wednesday.
WTI confirmed its continuation pattern and going toward the 90 target. Price is going toward the upper parallel of the long down channel at the 91 level followed by the 94 important level.

BTC

FTX's Last-Minute Changes to Asset Sales
FTX, the cryptocurrency exchange currently facing bankruptcy, has made last-minute changes to its proposal for selling its Bitcoin and crypto holdings in response to concerns from the US Trustee, a branch of the Department of Justice. The original plan aimed to liquidate $3.4 billion in crypto assets, causing worries about its impact on the market.
In the initial proposal, FTX had suggested appointing Galaxy Digital as the investment manager to oversee asset sales, with a weekly cap of $100 million per token, potentially increasing to $200 million for individual tokens.
The revised proposal no longer requires advance public notice of transactions due to their potential to affect market prices. Instead, FTX will keep the US Trustee and creditor committees informed. FTX's holdings as of August 31 include Solana (SOL) at $1.16 billion, Bitcoin (BTC) at $560 million, Ethereum (ETH) at $192 million, and several other assets.
Notably, a significant portion of FTX's SOL tokens is locked until 2025-2028, preventing a sudden massive dump of SOL tokens.
FTX's last-minute changes aim to minimize market disruptions but raise transparency questions. The final decision by Judge John Dorsey in the Delaware courtroom and market reactions will be closely watched. US CPI today may have an impact on risk sentiment and on risky assets which may affect the crypto market too.
BTC has recently shown a double top pattern on the weekly chart, and it is currently awaiting the breach of the 25,000-support level, which could trigger a new downward trend and change in BTC's direction. Furthermore, both the 100-day moving average (100MA) and the 200-day moving average (200MA) are approaching a crossover on both daily and weekly charts, suggesting a convergence toward a potential bearish price movement.

 

[Zforex]

US INDICES:

Markets Await Key Economic Data and Arm's NYSE Debut
Stock futures rose on Thursday morning as traders geared up for the release of the August Producer Price Index, which gauges wholesale inflation.
S&P 500 futures increased by 0.39%, and Nasdaq 100 futures also saw a 0.39% uptick.
Arm, the British chip design company established in 1990, is set to commence trading on the New York Stock Exchange today, marking its first appearance since being taken private by SoftBank in 2016. On Thursday, SoftBank's shares dipped slightly following Arm's initial public offering pricing at $51 per share.
Traders were closely watching the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, showed a 0.3% increase from the previous month and a 4.3% rise from the same period a year ago, in line with economists' expectations.
Headline inflation also grew by 0.6% on a monthly basis and 3.7% from the prior year, meeting economists' predictions.
The August CPI data is not anticipated to alter the Federal Reserve's stance, with a 97% probability of unchanged interest rates next week, according to CME FedWatch Tool data.
Another key inflation indicator to be released on Thursday is the August producer price index, which economists expect to have increased by 0.4%, following July's surprising 0.3% rise in wholesale prices. Additionally, retail sales and jobless claims data are scheduled to be released before the market opens.
Nasdaq is currently retracing towards the 15,300-support level and aiming for the 16,000 mark, its previous peak. This higher level poses a significant challenge for further advancement. Additionally, the median line of the long bullish channel continues to support the trend.

USOIL

Crude Oil Surges Past $93 as Supply Concerns Trump Economic Worries
Brent crude oil prices surged above $93 per barrel, marking their highest level in 10 months, as concerns over tightening supply for the remainder of 2023 outweighed worries about slowing economic growth and increasing US oil inventories. The International Energy Agency (IEA) highlighted a market deficit in the fourth quarter due to extended production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia. Although a bearish U.S. inventory report caused a brief dip in prices, market sentiment remained bullish.
Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM noted that the market's resilience in the face of bearish inventory data demonstrates the prevailing sentiment. The tight oil balance is expected to be the primary driver of oil prices for the rest of 2023.
Gains on Oil followed a previous decline in prices triggered by a U.S. supply report indicating an increase in crude and refined product stocks.
Supply concerns continue to support oil prices as producers remain committed to limited production. OPEC recently updated its demand forecasts and predicted a supply deficit for 2023 if production cuts are maintained.
Meanwhile, investor attention remains on the European Central Bank's (ECB) upcoming interest rate decision. While expectations initially leaned toward a pause in rate hikes, a Reuters report suggested the ECB might raise its inflation forecast for the next year to more than 3%, making a case for higher interest rates.
WTI confirmed its continuation pattern and touched the 90 target. Prices are going toward the upper parallel of the long down channel at the 91-level, followed by the significant 94 level.

Crypto

BTC
Franklin Templeton Joins Bitcoin ETF Race, but Caution Prevails in Crypto Markets
Franklin Templeton, a major financial institution, has entered the Bitcoin ETF race, submitting a filing with the SEC on September 12th for a Coinbase-custodied ETF called the Franklin Bitcoin ETF.
This announcement initially boosted Bitcoin's price from $25K, leading to increased social interest in Franklin. However, it's important to note that the initial excitement has faded, and experts caution against overreactions, comparing it to past ETF filings. Despite the temporary buzz, the traditional financial sector appears to be gradually embracing the idea of a Bitcoin ETF for the US market.
BTC has recently shown a double top pattern on the weekly chart, and it is currently awaiting the breach of the 25,000-support level, which could trigger a new downward trend and change in BTC's direction. Furthermore, both the 100-day moving average (100MA) and the 200-day moving average (200MA) are approaching a crossover on both daily and weekly charts, suggesting a convergence toward a potential bearish price movement.

 

[Zforex]

US INDICES:

Strong Dow Jones Rally Fueled by Wall Street IPO Optimism
The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw its strongest rally in over a month, thanks to positive developments in the Wall Street IPO market and favorable economic data. The S&P 500 climbed 0.84% to reach 4,505.10, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.81%, reaching 13,926.05.
Arm's shares experienced a remarkable surge of 24.7% on its first day of trading, following its IPO priced at $51 a share, which closed at $63.59 a share. This IPO has sparked hope for a revitalization of the IPO market.
August's producer price index indicated that core PPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.2%, aligning with economists' expectations. However, the headline number rose by 0.7%, surpassing the anticipated 0.4% increase.
In addition, August's retail sales exceeded expectations, with a 0.6% increase compared to the expected 0.1% rise, and excluding autos, retail sales also rose by 0.6%, surpassing the forecasted 0.4% increase.
Nasdaq is challenging the 15600-level aiming for the 16,000 mark, its previous peak. This higher level poses a significant challenge for further advancement. The risk in the market today will help the Nasdaq make new highs, especially with the ARM performance.

USOIL

Oil Prices Rise for Third Week on Production Cuts
Oil prices were set for a third consecutive weekly increase due to a combination of factors. Saudi Arabia, with support from Russia, extended its production cuts, leading to a decrease in global oil inventories. This move pushed both Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude benchmarks to their highest levels since November. Additionally, positive signs from the Chinese economy, the world's largest oil importer, boosted optimism for oil demand growth. China's industrial output and retail sales showed better-than-expected growth in August. Oil refinery processing also increased significantly from the previous year.
Furthermore, the outlook for borrowing costs is improving. While US headline inflation rose in August, the core figure moderated, potentially hinting at a pause in interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. However, the possibility of a final increase in November remains open. The European Central Bank recently implemented its tenth consecutive increase but suggested that it might stop there.
Wall Street is increasingly favoring oil trading as confidence in the OPEC+ decision to tighten oil output remains strong. Analysts believe that the oil market will remain tight in the fourth quarter of the year.
WTI touched its 91-confluence point target. Technically, this level is important for a correction, and we are currently witnessing a slight pullback in prices. This correction may take the price back towards the 88-support level. If a breakout occurs above the current resistance level, the next target will be 93.80.

Crypto

BTC Surges, Altcoins Rise on Positive China Data, SOL Faces Liquidation Risk
As Bitcoin (BTC) surges above $26,600, alternative cryptocurrencies like Solana's SOL face potential liquidation of leveraged positions. Positive data on China's economy has boosted confidence, driving the prices of altcoins such as XRP, Ether (ETH), SOL, Tron's TRX, and Dogecoin (DOGE) higher. However, SOL saw an 8% drop on Monday due to concerns about FTX's Solana holdings being sold off in a court filing, making bearish altcoin traders vulnerable to liquidation.
Funding rates in perpetual futures contracts have been consistently negative, indicating bearish sentiment. Meanwhile, open interest in SOL's futures has increased by over 16%, reaching a one-month high at $338 million, according to Coinglass data. These factors suggest growing bearish bets on SOL.
BTC has recently shown a double top pattern on the weekly chart, The trend continues to be bearish supported by the 25000 level but the correction toward the 26000 area was a normal correction. Furthermore, both the 100-day moving average (100MA) and the 200-day moving average (200MA) are approaching a crossover on both daily and weekly charts, suggesting a convergence toward a potential bearish price movement.

 

[Zforex]

US INDICES:

US Stock Futures Dip Ahead of Federal Reserve Meeting
On Monday morning, US stock futures experienced a slight dip as investors turned their attention to the upcoming Federal Reserve policy decision. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures saw minor declines of around 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively. Last week, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended in negative territory, marking their second consecutive week of losses.
Investors have high expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at their current levels during this week's policy meeting. Traders are eager to gain a better understanding of the central bank's position on inflation going forward.
Recent inflation data largely aligned with economists' predictions. Although the producer price index exceeded expectations, the Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, matched the anticipated figure. Furthermore, the core consumer price index for August showed a slightly higher increase than expected, rising by 0.3% month-over-month compared to the estimated 0.2%.
Nasdaq is forming a price concentration on the daily chart, indicating weakness in the price. The next key level to watch is the median line, followed by the 100MA.

USOIL

Crude Oil Prices Surge on Supply Deficit Concerns and Geopolitical Factors
US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose by 72 cents to $91.49 as of September 18, driven by concerns of a widening supply deficit in the fourth quarter due to extended supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia. These prices mark the highest levels since November and are on pace for the largest quarterly gains since the first quarter of 2022, influenced by geopolitical factors.
Citi recently predicted that Brent prices could exceed $100 per barrel within the year. Saudi Arabia and Russia jointly extended supply cuts of 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) until the year-end.
The sustainability of these supply cuts into the following year remains uncertain, as higher prices could incentivize increased US shale oil production. Meanwhile, concerns persist regarding oil demand, particularly in China, a major driver of global demand. China's post-pandemic economic recovery has been sluggish, although its oil imports have remained robust. The uncertain pace of economic progress poses a significant demand-side risk.
Despite concerns about reduced demand from Europe and China due to economic slowdowns, the oil market has experienced a relentless price rally, reflecting the tightness in supply. Central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, will be closely watched for their interest rate decisions. There is growing consensus that peak interest rates may be approaching, as inflationary pressures have been effectively managed. However, the timing of central banks' rate cuts remains uncertain, with potential implications for economic growth and oil demand.
WTI is breaking the 91 level and touching the 92 going toward the 93-resistance level. The trend continues bullish the 94-93 area will be the next challenge for the price as it also represents the 50% Fibonacci level.

Crypto

Bitcoin Surges Despite 'Death Cross' as Fed Rate Expectations Drive Market
BTC has surged by 8% since the appearance of the "death cross" on its daily chart on September 11. This uptick is attributed to traders' expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain steady interest rates for the remainder of the year. Bitcoin reached $27,220, its highest point since August 31, fueled by the belief that the death cross signal, which occurs when the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day moving average, is not a reliable indicator on its own.
Market sentiment is influenced by Fed funds futures, which suggest a 99% likelihood that the central bank will leave interest rates unchanged this week, along with a 69% chance of no action in November and a 58% probability of the same in December. The Fed has already raised rates by 525 basis points since March 2022 to combat inflation, which played a role in the previous year's crypto crash.
Analysts anticipate that the Fed will maintain its current interest rate forecast, but some do not expect the final projected rate hike to materialize. The recent bitcoin rally may be linked to the perception that the Fed's tightening cycle is concluding, as the cryptocurrency is highly sensitive to changes in interest rate expectations due to its liquidity-driven nature.
BTC has recently shown a double top pattern on the weekly chart, The trend continues to be bearish supported by the 25000 nut a correction toward the 26000 area was a normal correction. The BTC needs to break the 28000 resistance area to form a new hope of possible bullish direction toward the 31000 area.

 

[Zforex]

US INDICES:

Stock Futures Hold Steady Ahead of Federal Reserve's September Meeting
Stock futures traded relatively unchanged on Tuesday as Wall Street prepared for the commencement of the Federal Reserve's two-day September policy meeting. S&P 500 futures also remained stable, while Nasdaq 100 futures experienced a slight 0.1% decline.
It is not anticipated that the Fed will raise interest rates this week, as traders are currently pricing in a 99% probability of the central bank abstaining from a rate hike, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool, which tracks pricing in Fed funds futures. As of early Tuesday, traders are assigning only a 29% likelihood of a rate hike in November.
On Monday, six out of the 11 major S&P sectors ended the session positively, with energy leading the way with a 0.7% gain, while consumer discretionary was the poorest-performing sector, posting a decline of approximately 1%.
In terms of technical analysis, the Nasdaq is showing a concentration of price on the daily chart and has retraced towards the 15225-support level, suggesting vulnerability in the price leading up to the Federal Reserve meeting tomorrow. The next significant level to monitor is the median line, followed by the 100-day moving average (100MA).

USOIL

Oil Prices Rise on Supply Concerns Despite Weaker US Shale Output
Oil prices climbed for a fourth consecutive day on concerns of a supply deficit. Weak U.S. shale output, coupled with extended production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia, drove prices higher.
In September 2023, U.S. shale oil production is set to drop for the third consecutive month, reaching 9.39 million bpd, down from 9.433 million bpd in August and a record 9.476 million bpd in July, per the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The Permian Basin leads the decline, with a projected 26,000 bpd reduction, followed by the Eagle Ford Basin, expected to drop by 17,000 bpd. This marks the largest monthly decline since December last year. Despite this, the EIA maintains its forecast of record U.S. oil production for 2023, at 12.76 million bpd, with an increase to 13.09 million bpd in 2024. Rising oil prices persist despite improved drilling efficiency.
Analysts cited concerns over supply constraints and technical factors as supporting oil prices. However, they cautioned that the market's ascent into overbought territory could leave it vulnerable to a correction.
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser revised the company's long-term demand outlook, projecting global demand to reach 110 million barrels per day by 2030, down from a previous estimate of 125 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, defended OPEC+ supply cuts, emphasizing the need for light-handed regulation to curb volatility and expressing uncertainty about Chinese demand, European growth, and central bank actions to address inflation.
WTI is continuing up touching the 92.6 level. The trend is bullish and the 94-93 area will be the next challenge for the price as it also represents the 50% Fibonacci level.

Crypto

Crypto Prices Rally Ahead of Federal Reserve's Rate Decision, Bitcoin Shows Resilience
Cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, experienced a rise in prices on Tuesday as traders displayed bullish sentiment in anticipation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision scheduled for Wednesday. Bitcoin's price saw a 1% increase in the past 24 hours, reaching approximately $27,100. However, it retreated from its peak above $27,400, the highest level this month. Bitcoin has been hovering around the $26,000 mark for over a month, characterized by minimal volatility and trading activity as investor interest waned.
Similar to traditional stock markets like the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500, the crypto market is poised to react to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. While the central bank is expected to keep borrowing costs steady, investors are closely watching for signals regarding future rate hikes in November or the maintenance of current rates. Historically, higher interest rates have weighed on both Bitcoin and stocks, as investors tend to favor risk-free assets during such periods.
Before the Fed's decision, traders have become notably bullish, particularly in Bitcoin perpetual futures, the most liquid market in the cryptocurrency world. Open interest on Binance, the largest crypto exchange, increased by 3% in the past 24 hours to exceed $3.2 billion, with a prevailing bullish sentiment, according to Coinglass data. Analyst Yuya Hasegawa from Bitbank noted that some crypto market participants might be getting ahead of themselves in anticipation of the Fed meeting, where rate hikes are not expected. This surge in Bitcoin's price may slow down as no significant economic data releases are expected until after the conclusion of the Fed meeting later this month.
BTC has recently shown a double top pattern on the weekly chart, The trend continues being bearish supported by the 25000 while 27400 is the resistance area. The BTC needs to break the 28000-resistance area to make a new possible bullish movement toward the 31000 area.

 

[Zforex]

US INDICES:

Stock Futures Extend Declines as Investors Grapple with Fed's Rate Outlook
Stock futures declined on Thursday, intensifying losses for the week. This occurred as investors adjusted to the Federal Reserve's intention to maintain interest rates at elevated levels for a longer duration than previously anticipated.
On Wednesday, the three major stock indices concluded the trading session at their lowest points. This came after the Federal Reserve announced its decision to keep interest rates unchanged while predicting another rate hike before the year's end. Furthermore, the central bank indicated a reduction in the number of rate cuts expected next year. Essentially, this signals a need to maintain higher interest rates for an extended period due to the continued resilience of the economy and the necessity for a sustainable slowdown in inflation.
This week, the technology sector bore the brunt of the losses, as investors reconsidered their positions in growth-oriented stocks given the prospect of persistently high interest rates. Companies like Tesla, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, and Nvidia saw declines in premarket trading on Thursday.
Additionally, Klaviyo, a marketing automation firm that made its public market debut on Wednesday, experienced a nearly 2% decrease in premarket trading on Thursday. This added to a series of promising initial public offerings (IPOs) that witnessed declines during the course of this week.
Yesterday, Nasdaq declined, breaking its potential support level and heading toward the 100MA at 14750.
USOIL

Oil Prices Slide with Fed's Rate Hike Expectations and Stronger Dollar
Oil prices declined on Thursday, following the steepest drop in a month during the previous session. This drop was attributed to rising expectations of US interest rate hikes, which outweighed the impact of reductions in US crude inventories.
The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in its recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, coupled with hints of a year-end rate hike, added pressure to oil prices. This stance, which could dampen economic growth and fuel demand, also pushed the U.S. dollar to its highest level since early March, increasing the cost of commodities like oil for buyers using other currencies.
Despite data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicating a decrease in crude inventories in line with expectations, the oil market remained relatively unmoved. Analysts noted that the stock draw was driven primarily by robust oil exports, while gasoline and diesel inventories decreased due to autumn maintenance by refiners. However, concerns about tight global supply and ongoing production cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies helped limit the decline in prices.
WTI continued the correction going toward the 88.00 support level. A breakout will take prices toward the 85 area.

Crypto

Cryptocurrencies Slip as Fed Decision Drives Risk-Off Sentiment
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies faced a decline on Thursday as risk-sensitive assets weakened following the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy decision. Cryptocurrencies now appear poised to revert to a pattern of range-bound trading that has defined recent months.
Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin's price has dipped by 2%, settling around $26,728. This drop came after it peaked near $27,300 on Wednesday. The Federal Reserve chose to maintain interest rates but hinted at potential future increases. As a result, the largest digital asset finds itself back in the $26,000 zone, characterizing a month-long period of stagnant activity marked by low volatility and trading volumes in the crypto markets.
Cryptocurrencies, like the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500, reacted to the Fed's move, though the response was relatively subdued as the decision to pause rate hikes was largely anticipated. The future path of interest rates will continue to impact Bitcoin, with higher returns on risk-free assets potentially reducing the appeal of riskier crypto investments. The Fed's next monetary policy decision is not expected until November.
Bitcoin (BTC) remains entrenched in a bearish trend, with the 25000 level serving as support and the current resistance standing at 27200, marked by the third level of the downtrend line. In a broader, long-term perspective, BTC appears to be confined within a price range.

 

[Zforex]

US INDICES:

Stock Futures Rebound Following Fed Rate Signals
S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures both experienced gains of 0.2% and 0.4% respectively. These upward movements followed a three-day decline in all three stock indices. Investors were reacting to signals from the Federal Reserve indicating its intention to maintain higher interest rates, potentially exerting pressure on risk assets such as stocks.
This week, the S&P 500 and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite have declined by 2.7% and 3.5% respectively, marking their worst weekly performance since March and marking their third consecutive week of losses. Additionally, concerns arose among investors regarding a potential government shutdown, which could negatively impact consumer confidence and further slow down the economy. House Republican leaders initiated a recess on Thursday.
The Nasdaq continues its selloff and is approaching the support level at 14,630, while also approaching the neckline of a bearish pattern. A breach of this pattern would likely lead the price down towards the 14,400-14,260 area, where the 61.8% Fibonacci level represents the next substantial support.

USOIL

Oil Prices Face Weekly Decline with Fed's Prolonged Rate Signals
Oil prices faced a potential weekly loss due to the Federal Reserve's indication of prolonged high-interest rates. After three weeks of gains totaling 10%, profit-taking, and economic concerns dampened the rally. Russia's decision to limit fuel exports contributed to upward pressure on oil prices, and market fundamentals remained positive.
Both WTI and Brent benchmarks were set for a minor weekly decline following three weeks of strong gains, reaching their highest levels since November 2022. The rally, initially fueled by tightening crude and fuel markets and reduced U.S. inventories, was halted by the Fed's message of prolonged higher interest rates.
While the Fed kept rates unchanged at its September meeting, it signaled the possibility of another rate hike later in the year due to persistent inflation. This "higher for longer" message from the Fed weighed on risk assets, including crude oil.
Economic concerns in Europe, particularly fears of a recession in the Eurozone, could further pressure oil prices, according to market analyst Tina Teng. Additionally, profit-taking after the recent rally contributed to the decline in oil prices this week.
WTI is going back to the green side after finding support at 88.5. WTI's next level will be the 92.5 resistance point.

Crypto

Bitcoin Faces Challenges due to Rising Interest Rates
In a volatile economic climate with surging interest rates, Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market face growing challenges. The recent 16-year high in the 10-year US Treasury yield signals a significant shift in finance.
The Federal Reserve's recent signals are notable, with the 10-year Treasury Yield hitting 4.49%, the highest since October 2007, and the Real 10-Year Yield at 2.11%, the highest since March 2009.
This environment poses substantial challenges for Bitcoin and crypto, as rising yields often deter speculative investments in favor of more stable assets. The "higher for longer" approach and the Fed's balance sheet reduction also affect crypto liquidity.
Moreover, concerns about a potential recession and the uncertainty of crypto trading during such periods add to the market's challenges.
BTC continues to be in a downtrend, with the resistance level at 27,500 representing the third level of the downtrend line. The next support is at 25,000, and if it gets broken, it could open the door for further sell-offs.

 

[Zforex]

US INDICES:

Nike's Strong Earnings Propel Futures Higher, Wall Street Faces Monthly and Quarterly Losses
Nasdaq 100 futures rose by 0.6%, while S&P 500 futures saw a 0.4% increase. In premarket trading, Nike shares surged by over 7% following the company's impressive fiscal first-quarter earnings report, which exceeded analyst forecasts.
Wall Street is coming off a winning session, as the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield backed off from a fresh 15-year high. Those gains, however, did little to mitigate equities’ sharp losses for the month and the quarter.
The S&P 500 is set to finish the month down 4.6% and the quarter lower by 3.4%. The Nasdaq Composite is off nearly 6% in September, and down 4.3% for the quarter. This month will be the worst in 2023 for both indexes. The Dow is on track for a 3% decline this month and a 2.2% fall for the quarter.
Investors are now turning their attention to the latest personal consumption expenditures price index reading due Friday. The PCE reading is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric. Economists expect that the core PCE advanced 3.9% year over year in August and gained 0.2% on a monthly basis, according to Dow Jones.
On the weekly Nasdaq chart, a double top pattern has been confirmed, with the neckline located in the 14,250-14,500 area. A breakout above these levels could lead the price toward the 200-day moving average on the daily chart and the lower boundary of the current long-term bullish channel.



USOIL

Oil Prices Expected to Rise on Saudi and Russian Supply Cuts
Saudi and Russian supply cuts will likely push oil prices higher in the next three months, but the journey to $100 per barrel may be brief due to lingering economic risks, according to a Reuters survey of 42 economists and analysts. US crude is forecasted to average $79.64 per barrel in 2023 and $82.99 per barrel in 2024.
Analysts believe that Saudi Arabia and Russia will continue to influence oil prices as they extend supply cuts into 2024 to avoid price drops while managing higher government expenses. The poll indicates that oil prices will likely remain above $80 per barrel into the next year, with Brent expected to average $89.85 in the last quarter of 2023.
However, the much-discussed $100 per barrel price level appears unsustainable due to artificial supply shortages and economic fragility. Some analysts anticipate that increased production from US shale, as well as rising output from Iran and Venezuela, may offset OPEC+ supply cuts to some extent.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a market deficit through 2023, with oil demand expected to rise by 1 million barrels per day in 2024. Still, if output cuts are not maintained at the beginning of the next year, the market balance could shift to a surplus.
Higher global rates could potentially lead to a global economic recession in 2024, affecting oil demand, along with concerns about the Chinese economy.
WTI reached a new high at the $95 level and found resistance at 50%. A potential breakout is still possible as the price didn't show any signs or patterns of a probable correction. If this happens, reaching the $100 level will be achievable.


Crypto

Bitcoin's Price Takes Unusual Plunge on Binance Cryptocurrency Exchange
In the latest Bitcoin news, the price of the leading cryptocurrency, based on market capitalization, has seen some gains on shorter timeframes. However, traders on the Binance cryptocurrency exchange were taken aback when the BTC price unexpectedly plunged.
According to the cryptocurrency report by Colin Wu, Bitcoin's price plummeted on the trading platform, dropping to as low as $2,700 from its current levels. This crash, unlike previous occurrences, occurred at different times.
The incident was documented at 16:17 UTC+8 on the exchange's perpetual futures platform, one of its most popular trading instruments. Changpeng "CZ" Zhao, the CEO of the exchange, responded to the incident.
In a prior tweet, CZ explained that the problem stemmed from an issue with the trading pair's display, and the User Interface remained unaffected, as did the APIs connected to the platform.
Fortunately, this incident did not trigger any stop losses or margin calls for BTC/USDT futures positions, providing relief for traders on the platform.
BTC initially reached the 27,000 level but retraced its price after a month, fluctuating between the 27,000 mark and finding support at the 25,000 level.

 

[Zforex]

US INDICES:

S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 Futures Dip as Government Shutdown Averted, but Concerns Linger
S&P 500 futures experienced a 0.2% decline, while Nasdaq-100 futures saw a 0.1% drop. The Senate successfully passed a continuing resolution just hours before the midnight deadline on Saturday. President Joe Biden promptly signed the bill into law, ensuring the government remains operational for an additional 45 days. This extended period allows lawmakers the opportunity to finalize funding legislation. However, concerns linger among investors as there are unresolved disagreements regarding overall government spending, border issues, and the situation in Ukraine, potentially leading to another shutdown battle in the future.
September marked a challenging month for both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, with the S&P 500 index ending the month down by 4.9% and the quarter 3.7% lower. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite, which is technology-heavy, experienced a 5.8% drop in the month and a 4.1% decline in the quarter. Investors will closely monitor economic data scheduled for release on Monday, including purchasing and construction spending reports. Later in the week, attention will shift to a series of reports that provide insights into the state of the labor market, culminating in Friday's highly anticipated monthly payroll data.
On the weekly Nasdaq chart, a double top pattern has been confirmed, with the neckline located in the 14,250-14,500 area. A breakout above these levels could lead the price toward the 200-day moving average on the daily chart and the lower boundary of the current long-term bullish channel.

USOIL

Oil Prices Surge on the Back of a Tight Supply Outlook and Aversion of Government Shutdown
Oil prices rose $1 on Monday, rebounding from losses at the end of the previous week. This increase was driven by renewed investor focus on a tight global supply outlook. Additionally, the avoidance of a U.S. government shutdown contributed to improved risk appetite in the market.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia (OPEC+), are not expected to make changes to their current oil output policy at an upcoming meeting. This decision was indicated by four OPEC+ sources.
OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais expressed confidence in oil demand, characterizing it as resilient this year. However, a Reuters survey revealed that OPEC oil output increased for the second consecutive month in September, primarily due to rises in production in Nigeria and Iran, despite Saudi Arabia's cuts.
Turkey also announced plans to restart operations on a pipeline from Iraq, which had been suspended for around six months, adding more crude supply to the market.
Furthermore, there is speculation that Saudi Arabia may ease its additional voluntary supply cut of 1 million barrels per day, citing concerns over Chinese demand. However, positive Chinese factory activity data provided some confidence, indicating a potential stabilization of the Chinese economy.
Despite the positive news from China, European manufacturing data showed that the Eurozone, Germany, and Britain remained in a downturn in September, which could impact oil demand.
WTI reached a new high at the $95 level and found resistance at the 50% level. A potential breakout is still likely as the price didn't show any signs or patterns of a possible correction. If this happens, reaching the $100 dollar level will be achievable.

Crypto

Bitcoin Surges Beyond $28,400, Setting the Stage for an Optimistic 'Uptober'
Bitcoin surged past $28,400 for the first time since mid-August, sparking optimism among investors for "Uptober." Wallet data reveals that BTC wallets holding 10-10K BTC have accumulated 415,000 BTC (approximately $1.17 billion) since September 1st without trading or using their coins as collateral. This accumulation, occurring during a period of sluggish price movement, suggests the possibility of Bitcoin reaching a $30,000 market value.
Historically, October has been a favorable month for Bitcoin's price performance, and this trend seems to be continuing with Bitcoin's recent jump above $28,400, resulting in nearly 10% weekly gains and the liquidation of over $97 million in BTC shorts over the past 24 hours. Experts anticipate the rally to persist throughout October, citing significant buying flows and speculation surrounding the approval of BlackRock Inc.'s Bitcoin ETF proposals by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Bitcoin may face resistance at the $30,000 level as it continues its upward trajectory.