Pre-Open US

[Zforex]

Nvidia Earnings, Central Bank Meeting, and Cryptocurrency Stability Amidst Volatility​

US INDICES:

The futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both increased by 0.6% and 0.8% respectively. Nvidia is set to announce its second-quarter earnings later today. According to Refinitiv's polled analysts, the company is expected to show significant year-over-year increases in both profit and revenue for the second quarter. Having risen over 200%, Nvidia is the top-performing stock in the S&P 500 for 2023, as investors show enthusiasm for its AI-related opportunities.
Investors will be examining the report for indications of whether the market can resume its upward trend for the year, or if the August downturn will persist. The S&P 500 has experienced a decline of over 4% this month. On Wednesday, shares saw an increase of over 1%.
S&P Global's flash U.S. Composite PMI index for August could offer further insights into the strength of business activity and the direction of interest rates, in anticipation of a much-anticipated speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday.
Traders are currently predicting an 86.5% likelihood that the Fed will maintain unchanged rates in September, based on CME Group's FedWatch tool. However, their expectations for rate cuts from the central bank have been reduced.
Nasdaq is bouncing after coming close to the 14500 level. The short-term selloff is still persistent. The 100MA and the Fibonacci close to 14400 are making a solid confluence point and the price may face a solid support there.
​

USOIL

Oil prices experienced a decrease of more than 1.5% due to concerns about a global decline in manufacturing. This decline occurred just before the annual central banking meeting in Jackson Hole, US. Economic challenges were evident worldwide, as indicated by various Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) surveys. Japan witnessed its factory activity shrinking for the third consecutive month, while Eurozone business activity, especially in Germany, fell short of expectations. The US PMI data was still awaited, and analysts were closely observing discussions among central bank officials at the Jackson Hole event to gain insights into potential changes in interest rates. Moreover, US crude stocks saw a reduction of approximately 2.4 million barrels. Additionally, the potential restart of a major pipeline in northern Iraq has brought up the possibility of an extra 500,000 barrels per day entering the market. It has been reported that oil exports are also resuming through the Ceyhan terminal.
The daily WTI price movement has given rise to a head and shoulders reversal pattern. Currently, there's a breakout occurring below the critical support level at 79, driving the price towards the projected target of 77.
​

Crypto

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies remained relatively stable on Wednesday, following a recent market decline that saw the largest one-day drop of the year. Analysts observe technical factors supporting a bearish trend during this period of stability.
Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin's price held above $26,000, showing stability after last week's market rout drove it from above $29,000 to around $25,500, the lowest since mid-June. This decline, the largest in 2023, ended a phase of low volatility, suggesting Bitcoin's current stagnation.
This week, Bitcoin's direction may be influenced by the stock market's response to Nvidia's earnings and updates from the Jackson Hole economic symposium. These events could impact overall risk sentiment and consequently influence cryptocurrency prices.
Technical factors unique to Bitcoin also play a role. Short-term holders face significant unrealized losses, as noted by analysts at Glassnode. Unlike long-term holders, short-term holders are sensitive to price shifts, with many buying Bitcoin above $29,000. This dynamic contributes to the current market situation.
Technically, BTC has broken the trend channel and the trend line that supported the price and also the 200MA. The next support is expected to be around 25,000. This level has functioned as a strong support and resistance level in the last four instances.

 

[Zforex]

Nvidia Surges on Earnings, Oil Prices Decline, Bitcoin Whale's Mystery Accumulation, and Real Yields' Cryptocurrency Impact ​

US INDICES:

The S&P 500 futures advanced by 0.4%, while Nasdaq 100 futures saw a 1% increase. Following Nvidia's quarterly earnings report that surpassed analyst expectations, Nvidia shares surged by 8%. The company also elevated its guidance, projecting a third-quarter revenue of $16 billion, signifying a remarkable 170% year-over-year rise. This marks Nvidia's second consecutive quarter of surpassing expectations. The initial quarter's impressive results, revealed in May, heightened interest in artificial intelligence, a major market driver in the first half of the year. This increased interest propelled the value of the chip stock to over $1 trillion. Additionally, other chipmakers, like Taiwan Semiconductor, experienced a boost due to this report. Investors are also anticipating insights from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's comments in Jackson Hole, Wyoming on Friday, which could shed light on the direction of benchmark interest rates.
The Nasdaq is bouncing after coming close to the 14500 level. The short-term selloff is still persistent. The 100MA and also the Fibonacci close to 14400 are making a solid confluence point and the price may face a solid support there.​

USOIL

Oil prices declined this week. Factors such as concerns about China's economic growth rate and the possibility of a US interest rate increase are pressuring oil prices. Additionally, the potential for increased production from Iran and Venezuela is contributing to negative market sentiment.
WTI and Brent benchmarks fell for the fourth consecutive day. These drops were driven by worries over China's economic recovery and the ongoing Jackson Hole Fed meeting, where insights into prolonged higher interest rates might emerge. Despite a substantial US crude draw reported on Wednesday, market attention remains fixed on these concerns.
Persistent apprehensions about the economy and increased supply risks from Iran and Venezuela, not bound by OPEC+ cuts, outweighed the notable 6.1 million barrel crude draw for the week ending August 18.
The daily WTI price movement has given rise to a head and shoulders reversal pattern. Currently, there's a breakout occurring below the critical support level at 79, driving the price towards the projected target of 77.​

Crypto

An unidentified Bitcoin holder has gathered 118,300 BTC worth $3.13 billion within around three months, sparking curiosity about their identity. Data from Bitinfocharts reveals that the address "bc1q….59v2" began its Bitcoin accumulation on May 8, 2022, starting with an initial purchase of 0.25 BTC. This marked the beginning of an increasingly rapid accumulation trend, continuing until its most recent transaction on June 28. This entity now ranks as the third-largest whale, trailing behind crypto exchanges Bitfinex (holding 178,010 BTC) and Binance (with 248,597 BTC).
The interaction between Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, and real yields is drawing attention as traditional finance grapples with changing implications for real yields. Shifts in real yields, which consider inflation-adjusted US treasury yields, have an impact on risk assets like Bitcoin. A rise in real yields typically leads to a decrease in Bitcoin's value, as investors turn to safer assets. Factors like inflation and nominal rates influence real yields. The actions of the Federal Reserve and upcoming speeches, such as Jerome Powell's address at Jackson Hole, have the potential to affect real yields and subsequently influence cryptocurrencies. Investors should exercise caution due to the possibility of market volatility arising from such events.
Technically, BTC has broken the trend channel and the trend line that supported the price and also the 200MA. The next support is expected to be around 25,000. This level has functioned as a strong support and resistance level in the last four instances.​

 

[Zforex]

Stocks Respond to Powell's Statements, Robinhood's Significant Bitcoin Holdings, and Oil Price Trends with Economic Factors​

US INDICES:

S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq-100 futures were active. 3M shares surged over 5% after a Bloomberg News report revealed the company's readiness to settle lawsuits regarding defective earplugs. Stocks experienced gains in the last session following fresh statements from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Speaking at the annual central bank conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Powell acknowledged ongoing economic growth and robust consumer spending. However, he emphasized the central bank's cautious approach to further rate hikes. Traders on Monday morning were factoring in an approximate 20% likelihood of a rate increase during the upcoming September Fed meeting, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The final week of August began with major indices poised to close the month with losses. Since the beginning of the month, the Dow and S&P dropped by 3.4% and 4%, respectively, while the Nasdaq experienced a decline of around 5.3%.
The Nasdaq is exhibiting weakness at its current high levels. The value of 14650 serves as a neckline for a head and shoulders pattern that is forming, indicating an anticipated potential reversal. The median line of the actual bullish channel is working as a support level too.
​

USOIL

China's move to boost its struggling economy had a limited impact on oil prices, which remained largely steady. Concerns about the pace of economic growth and potential US interest rate hikes that could weaken demand persisted. To stimulate struggling markets, China halved the stamp duty on stock trading. Attention also turned to Tropical Storm Idalia, which posed a potential threat to oil and gas production in the US Gulf.
Tropical Storm Idalia was strengthening as it approached Cuba, potentially causing power outages, which could lend short-term support to oil prices despite the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve on rate hikes.
Oil prices, supported by decreasing oil inventories and production cuts from the OPEC+ alliance, remained above $80 per barrel. Saudi Arabia was anticipated to extend its voluntary 1 million barrels per day oil output reduction into October, aiming to provide continued market support.
The WTI price touched the support level near 77.50 and is now rebounding. The level at 81, where the 100MA has acted as a resistance for the past 2 instances on the 4-hour chart, might continue to do so. If there's a breakout above that level, the next target could be 82.50.

Crypto

The trading platform Robinhood (HOOD) now holds more than $3 billion worth of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) in a single wallet, revealed data from Arkham Intelligence. This accumulation, spanning several months, makes it the third-largest Bitcoin holder globally, trailing behind Binance and Bitfinex. The wallet's owners have prompted speculation, including theories about BlackRock's involvement or Gemini moving user holdings. While Robinhood hasn't commented publicly, it transferred 118,300 Bitcoins to this wallet over three months, managed by Jump Trading. Despite low crypto trading volumes, this sizable Bitcoin exposure showcases Robinhood's stake in the market.
Arkham Intelligence data shows Robinhood's (HOOD) single wallet holds over $3B in Bitcoin (BTCUSD), making it the world's third-largest holder after Binance and Bitfinex. The wallet's owners, potentially BlackRock or Gemini, remain speculative. Robinhood transferred 118,300 Bitcoin over 3 months to this wallet managed by Jump Trading, highlighting its market stake.
Technically, BTC is finding support at the $26,000 level while awaiting further direction. The next support is anticipated around $25,000. This level has served as a robust support and resistance point in the past four instances.

 

[Zforex]

Mixed Gains as Stocks Seek Reprieve, Oil Prices React to Supply Concerns, and Bitcoin Holders Defy Slowdown ​

US INDICES:

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.6% and 0.8%, respectively.
The Dow finished more than 200 points higher, which equates to a gain of about 0.6%. 3M helped the blue-chip average in the session, rallying more than 5% a day after Bloomberg News cited sources saying the conglomerate was ready to settle lawsuits that alleged some of its earplugs were faulty.
But Monday’s leg up can be characterized as a respite from what’s shaping up to be a tough month for stocks. With just three sessions left in August’s trading month, the Dow is on pace to finish 2.8% lower. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are poised for losses of 3.4% and 4.5%, respectively.
The Nasdaq is exhibiting weakness at its current high levels. The value of 14650 serves as a neckline for a head and shoulders pattern that is forming, indicating an anticipated potential reversal. The median line of the actual bullish channel is working as a support level as well.​

USOIL

Oil prices edged up due to concerns about supply disruption from an approaching hurricane in the US Gulf Coast, countering worries of a potential US interest rate hike affecting demand.
Tropical Storm Idalia, moving towards Florida, could impact crude production in the region. A recent fire at a Marathon Petroleum refinery and threats of labor action at Chevron's LNG facilities in Australia also contributed to supply concerns. However, demand worries persist in the US and China due to economic uncertainties and potential interest rate changes. The economic data later in the week could further influence oil prices.
The WTI is rebounding from the support level at 77.5 and resuming its bullish direction after the recent correction. The 84-resistance level will be the next significant hurdle to monitor, potentially impacting the current trend. Before that, the 82.00 mark will serve as a temporary level of interest.​

Crypto

Despite experiencing a recent billion-dollar shakeout, long-term holders of Bitcoin persistently accumulate tokens, indicating that traders maintain a positive long-term perspective regardless of the current market slowdown. These committed holders are also retaining their spot positions, abstaining from active trading, or utilizing their Bitcoin as collateral, as per analysts at Bitfinex, a cryptocurrency exchange.
Data provided by Bitfinex reveals that Bitcoin's long-term holders are consistently accumulating, with an unprecedented 40% remaining unmoved for over three years. This marks an all-time high for this particular metric. However, while individuals with extended holding periods of three years or more continue to amass Bitcoin, the one-year inactive supply metric portrays a more pessimistic sentiment.
Furthermore, data suggests that traders of crypto futures and options are preparing for a bearish market in the upcoming months, with Bitcoin's anticipated prices potentially dropping to as low as $22,000. This projection represents a decline of over 15% from its current levels.
Technically, BTC is finding support at the $26,000 level while awaiting further direction. The next support is anticipated around $25,000. This level has served as a strong support and resistance point in the past four instances.

 

[Zforex]

Slight Dips in S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Futures, Mixed Economic Signals, and Crypto Rally

US INDICES:

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures experienced slight declines of 0.2% and 0.3% respectively.
Tuesday's gains occurred despite data indicating a potential slowdown in the economy. The Conference Board's consumer sentiment index for Tuesday registered at 106.1, falling below the consensus estimate of 116 given by economists polled by Dow Jones. Furthermore, data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics demonstrated a decrease in open job listings during July.
At the same time, the yield on the 2-year Treasury dropped on Tuesday. This decline hints at the possibility of an economic slowdown, which could raise investor optimism regarding the Federal Reserve potentially adopting a more relaxed policy approach.
Despite the gains, the three major indexes are still set to record losses for August, with only two trading days remaining. The Nasdaq Composite is expected to finish August with a 2.8% decline, while the Dow and S&P 500 are both projected to experience drops of roughly 2%.
Investors will be closely monitoring ADP's jobs data on Wednesday, which marks the beginning of a series of labor statistics releases scheduled for this week. Following this, jobless claims figures will be released on Thursday, followed by data on nonfarm payrolls, wages, and the unemployment rate on Friday.
Additionally, investors will be keeping a close watch on GDP and pending home sales data, both of which are expected to be released on Wednesday morning.
The Nasdaq is coming back higher touching the 15370-resistance level. The 14650 still serves as a neckline for a head and shoulders pattern, indicating an anticipated potential reversal. The median line of the actual bullish channel is working as a support level too.

USOIL

Oil prices have climbed due to a decrease in US crude stockpiles and concerns arising from a Gulf hurricane. According to sources citing figures from the American Petroleum Institute, US crude stocks saw a larger-than-anticipated drop of 11.5 million barrels in the week ending on August 25.
Investors are also closely monitoring Hurricane Idalia, which is advancing over the Gulf of Mexico to the east of key US oil and natural gas production sites. This specific region contributes to approximately 15% of US oil output and roughly 5% of natural gas production, as reported by the Energy Information Administration
In the upcoming week ending on September 1, US oil refiners are projected to experience a decline of 119,000 barrels per day in refining capacity compared to the previous week. This forecast comes from research firm IIR Energy.
Furthermore, industry experts anticipate that Saudi Arabia, the world's leading oil exporter, will prolong its voluntary production cut into October, thereby maintaining a tight oil supply.
In parallel news, the military takeover in Gabon on Wednesday could potentially disrupt the country's crude supplies and further constrict the market. According to Kpler ship-tracking data, Gabon typically exported an average of 160,000 barrels per day to Asia from May to July.
The WTI continued the bullish movement toward the next resistance level target at 84.00. Before that, the 82.00 mark will serve as a temporary level of interest.

Crypto

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies continued to experience gains following a significant rally on Tuesday, prompted by a favorable court ruling in favor of cryptocurrencies. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin's price surged by 5.5%, breaking through the $27,400 mark. On Tuesday, there was a brief surge above $28,000, attributed to Grayscale, a crypto asset manager, winning a significant appeal against the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
A federal court determined that the SEC's denial of Grayscale's efforts to convert its Bitcoin trust into an exchange-traded fund (ETF) lacked a consistent rationale. This ruling essentially paves the way for the eventual approval of an ETF linked to Bitcoin. The endorsement of a Bitcoin ETF is considered a pivotal factor that could initiate a fresh surge of interest from both retail and institutional investors in the realm of cryptocurrencies. The anticipation surrounding a Bitcoin ETF has been growing since June, driven by well-established financial entities such as BlackRock and Invesco submitting their own ETF applications. While formal approval has not yet materialized, the likelihood of its occurrence has never been higher.
Bitcoin had been trading around $26,000 for nearly two weeks after a decline from the psychologically significant $30,000 threshold. Despite these movements, the primary digital asset remains below crucial technical levels.

 

[Zforex]

Fed Rate Hike Speculation with Economic Indicators and Crypto Trends​

US INDICES:

Slight gains were observed in S&P 500 futures, with Dow Jones Industrial Average futures showing a 0.3% increase equivalent to 98 points. Meanwhile, Nasdaq-100 futures were also in focus. Investors processed less-than-anticipated payroll data and a forecast for annual gross domestic product growth. Despite this, the outlook hinted that the Federal Reserve might soon conclude its rate hikes, providing a boost to the stock market. Traders were also anticipating July's personal consumption expenditures data, a crucial inflation indicator for the Fed. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones predicted a 4.2% year-over-year increase last month, slightly higher than the previous month's 4.1% rise. Additionally, Thursday morning would bring the release of weekly jobless claims data. The S&P 500 was on track for its weakest month since February, while the Nasdaq 100 looked set to experience its most substantial drop this year.
Over the past two days, the Nasdaq has displayed signs of strength by surpassing the 15,300-resistance level and heading towards the 16,000 mark, its previous peak. This higher level presents a formidable challenge for further advancement. Notably, media coverage appears to be providing solid support for the price, and even the bearish pattern that was emerging earlier seems to have lost its significance.​

USOIL

Oil prices climbed as US crude inventories saw a substantial decrease and OPEC+ implemented production cuts.
US government data revealed a larger-than-anticipated drop of 10.6 million barrels in crude inventories due to heightened exports and refinery operations. The extension of Saudi Arabia's 1 million bpd oil production cut into October is expected, supplementing OPEC and Russia's cuts as part of OPEC+.
However, concerns arose over China's manufacturing activity decline in August, as the official factory survey displayed contraction, raising alarms about the global economy's second-largest player. The purchasing managers' index (PMI) inched up to 49.7 from July's 49.3, yet it remained below the 50-point threshold indicating expansion.
Investor attention also turned to US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data for inflation metrics, scheduled for release and deemed important by the Federal Reserve. The US government revised the last quarter's gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 2.1%, down from the previous 2.4%, while private payroll growth in August displayed a significant slowdown.
The WTI maintains its bullish trajectory, steadily progressing towards the 84-resistance level. The long-term trend remains robust and bullish, suggesting the potential for further advancement given the current fundamentals.​

Crypto

The quantity of Bitcoin held in centralized exchange wallets has reached its lowest point in over five years, per a recent CoinDesk report. Data from CryptoQuant, an on-chain analytics service, indicates a 4% decrease in exchange reserves this month, settling at 2 million BTC, approximately $54.5 billion. This marks the lowest level since January 2018.
This decline is influenced by a mix of positive and negative market factors. On the positive side, services like Copper's Clearloop are gaining popularity. Clearloop enables trades without moving assets to centralized exchanges. Matrixport partnered with Copper to enhance its prime brokerage services, allowing off-exchange settlements. Clearloop securely connects multiple exchanges, enabling Matrixport's institutional clients to trade within Copper's infrastructure and reduce risks.
Conversely, the downfall of FTX, once the world's third-largest exchange, has led to reduced trust in centralized platforms. Thielen attributes the decreased exchange balances to this loss of confidence, highlighting the importance of self-custody. A recent PricewaterhouseCoopers report reveals that only 9% of industry participants store coins exclusively on exchanges, opting for various custody options to minimize risk.
Technically, BTC retraced towards the last solid support/resistance level around the 28000 mark, displaying a rejection at this level before descending. The next support is expected around the 25000 level.

 

[Zforex]

Labor Day Holiday Pause, Nasdaq's Climb, Oil Prices, and SEC's Bitcoin ETF Ruling​

US INDICES:

US markets will be shut on Monday for the Labor Day holiday, but futures advanced after the S&P 500 Index posted its best week since June.
Market sentiment got a boost from Friday’s US jobs report that showed a steadily cooling labor market, offering the Federal Reserve room to pause rate increases this month. Markets built on those gains after news of a weekend surge in home sales in two of China’s biggest cities, an early sign that government efforts to cushion a record housing slowdown are helping.
Nasdaq continues displaying signs of strength by surpassing the 15,300-resistance level and heading towards the 16,000 mark, its previous peak. This higher level presents a formidable challenge for further advancement.​

USOIL

Oil prices held steady on Monday as major producers are expected to maintain tight supplies. Brent crude futures for November edged up 5 cents to $88.60 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) October futures rose 2 cents to $85.57 a barrel.
These prices followed last week's highest levels in over six months, driven by the anticipation of supply cuts from Russia and Saudi Arabia. However, the continuous rise in U.S. oil production may limit significant price gains. Saudi Arabia is likely to extend its voluntary 1-million-barrel-per-day cut into October, and Russia has already announced export cuts. Vitol CEO Russell Hardy expects some easing in the global crude market in the next few weeks due to refinery maintenance, but supplies of sour crude will remain tight due to OPEC+ cuts.
Meanwhile, in the U.S., job growth increased in August, but the unemployment rate rose to 3.8%, suggesting the Federal Reserve may not raise interest rates this month. In China, unexpected manufacturing growth in August and economic support measures brought positivity to the market.
The WTI broke the 84.5 level and is now at the 86 level, making a new high and getting out of its 10-month range. The next big target will be around the 90 levels.​

Crypto

JP Morgan analysts, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, predict that the recent federal court ruling criticizing the SEC's handling of Grayscale's Bitcoin ETF proposal may lead the SEC to reconsider its stance on various spot Bitcoin ETF applications, including those from firms like BlackRock and Fidelity. The court's decision highlighted the lack of clear reasoning for treating futures-based and spot-based Bitcoin ETFs differently. The SEC has postponed its decisions on these applications until mid-October, potentially leading to increased competition among ETF providers. Despite this, JP Morgan believes that spot Bitcoin ETFs may not significantly impact the cryptocurrency and financial industries, citing similar outcomes in Canada and Europe. JP Morgan consistently supports cryptocurrencies and emphasizes the need for clear regulations in the crypto space, especially in light of recent SEC lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase. Their report underscores the importance of establishing a comprehensive regulatory framework involving the SEC and CFTC.
Technically, BTC retraced towards the last solid support/resistance level around the 26000 mark, displaying a rejection at this level before descending. The next support is expected around the 25000 level.

 

[Zforex]

The Impact of Economic Slowdown and SEC's Bitcoin ETF Decisions

US INDICES

Last week, traders assessed new indications of an economic slowdown and decreasing inflationary pressures. The most recent US Nonfarm Payrolls report revealed that the unemployment rate had risen to 3.8% in August, marking its highest level in over a year. This was contrary to the 3.5% rate anticipated by economists surveyed by Dow Jones. Additionally, average hourly earnings increased by 4.3% year-over-year, falling short of the 4.4% increase predicted by Dow Jones' polled economists.
Investors may also be bracing themselves for a challenging month in the stock market. Historically, September has been the weakest month for equities, and investors will be closely examining economic reports, including fresh inflation data, in preparation for the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting. The central bank's policymakers are scheduled to convene for a two-day meeting commencing on September 19, with the interest rate decision set to be announced on September 20.
Nasdaq continues displaying signs of strength by surpassing the 15,300-resistance level and heading towards the 16,000 mark, its previous peak. This higher level presents a formidable challenge for further advancement.

USOIL

Oil prices declined on Tuesday due to concerns about the global economy, especially China's slow post-pandemic recovery, although hopes of OPEC+ producers extending supply cuts limited the losses. Surveys indicated that global business activity slowed down last month as services firms struggled due to weak demand caused by rising prices and borrowing costs, leading consumers to reduce spending. China's services activity also expanded at its slowest pace in eight months in August. The strong US dollar made oil more expensive for other currency holders. The euro zone's services industry contracted, and the UK saw a significant business slowdown. The market also awaited US economic data for insights into the Federal Reserve's interest rate strategy. Saudi Arabia and Russia were expected to continue voluntary oil cuts in the coming months to stabilize the market.
The WTI broke the 84.5 level and is now at the 86 level, making a new high getting out of its 10-month range. The next big target will be around the 90 levels.
​

Crypto

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies saw a decline on Tuesday, remaining at lower levels. Analysts are closely observing technical weaknesses, hinting at potential further drops.
Bitcoin's price decreased by 1% in the last 24 hours, landing at $25,750, distancing itself from the $26,000 mark that offered stability for the past month. While Bitcoin did experience temporary gains, like the recent spike to $28,000 after a pro-crypto court ruling, prices have struggled to maintain higher levels.
Macroeconomic factors, similar to how the stock market reacts to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500, are expected to keep influencing cryptocurrencies due to their sensitivity to interest rate changes, impacting risk-sensitive assets.
However, the focus of digital asset traders remains on the upcoming decisions from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications. These ETFs, if approved, could significantly affect crypto prices. While the SEC postponed decisions on several applications until October, crypto enthusiasts remain optimistic that approval is imminent. There's an ongoing debate among analysts about the extent to which this decision is already factored into current prices.
Technically, BTC retraced towards the last solid support/resistance level around the 26000 mark, displaying a rejection at this level before descending. The next support is expected around the 25000 level.​

 

[Zforex]

Dow's 200-Point Decline, Oil Price Volatility, and Bitcoin's Divergence

US INDICES:

The Dow closed nearly 200 points lower on Tuesday, representing a decline of approximately 0.6%. In the same session, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also saw decreases of 0.4% and nearly 0.1%, respectively. Before the market opening, Roku shares surged by over 10% following the announcement of several cost-cutting measures, including layoffs.
One of the contributing factors to this downward trend was the rise in oil prices, reaching their highest level since November. This increase was driven by the decision of Saudi Arabia and Russia to extend their voluntary supply cuts. On Wednesday, West Texas Intermediate futures experienced a 0.7% decline, trading at $86.07.
Investors are eagerly awaiting economic data scheduled for release on Wednesday morning, specifically focusing on the US trade deficit and the services industry. Additionally, in the afternoon, a new beige book summarizing economic activity will be published.
Furthermore, notable stocks such as GameStop, American Eagle Outfitters, and ChargePoint are set to announce their earnings after the closing bell.
Nasdaq continues displaying signs of strength by surpassing the 15,300-resistance level and heading towards the 16,000 mark, its previous peak. This higher level presents a formidable challenge for further advancement.

USOIL

Oil prices fell on Wednesday due to a stronger dollar and investors' lack of concern about supply cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia. The dollar's strength, near a six-month high, made oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, impacting demand.
The market's uncertainty stemmed from a joint announcement by Saudi Arabia and Russia, extending their voluntary oil cuts until year-end. They plan to review these cuts monthly, allowing for flexibility. The market sensed the possibility of tapering due to factors like anti-inflation efforts and the impact on Saudi oil revenues.
Near-term supply concerns pushed front-month Brent futures to nine-month highs, trading at $4.13 a barrel above prices in six months. U.S. WTI futures showed a similar trend, with the spread between front-month and six-month contracts widening to as much as $4.88 a barrel, also near nine-month highs.
Analysts cautioned that price increases might face obstacles as U.S. refineries enter their maintenance period in September-October, potentially causing a dip in demand. Moreover, higher supply from Iran, Venezuela, and Libya could further impact prices.
The WTI broke the 84.5 level and is now at the 86 level marking a new high and getting out of its 10-month range. The next big target will be around the 90 levels.

Crypto

The Bitcoin market is currently experiencing a significant divergence between long-term holders (LTHs) and short-term holders (STHs), which has reached record levels. LTHs are investors who have held their coins for over 155 days and are often characterized by their unwavering commitment to not sell during volatile times, earning them the nickname "diamond hands." On the other hand, STHs are those who recently acquired their coins and are more likely to sell in response to fear, uncertainty, or profit opportunities.
Recent on-chain data reveals an intriguing trend: LTH supply has been steadily increasing in recent years, while STH supply has been decreasing. This suggests that the overall supply of Bitcoin is becoming less active, with LTHs holding a growing share of the total supply.
Currently, the gap between these two groups is the widest it has ever been. LTH supply is nearing 15 million BTC, while STH supply has fallen below 2.5 million BTC, the lowest since Bitcoin's early days in 2011. This decline in STH supply coincided with a recent sharp drop in Bitcoin's price from above $29,000 to below $26,000. However, LTHs seem unaffected by this volatility, as their supply continues to grow while STHs decrease.
Although the strength of the LTH group may not have an immediate impact on the market, over longer periods, the increasing accumulation of supply in the wallets of HODLers (LTHs) could have a bullish effect due to supply and demand dynamics.
Technically, BTC retraced towards the last solid support/resistance level around the 26000 mark, displaying a rejection at this level before descending. The next support is expected around the 25000 level.

 

[Zforex]

Dow's 200-Point Decline, Oil Price Volatility, and Bitcoin's Divergence

US INDICES:

The Dow closed nearly 200 points lower on Tuesday, representing a decline of approximately 0.6%. In the same session, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also saw decreases of 0.4% and nearly 0.1%, respectively. Before the market opening, Roku shares surged by over 10% following the announcement of several cost-cutting measures, including layoffs.
One of the contributing factors to this downward trend was the rise in oil prices, reaching their highest level since November. This increase was driven by the decision of Saudi Arabia and Russia to extend their voluntary supply cuts. On Wednesday, West Texas Intermediate futures experienced a 0.7% decline, trading at $86.07.
Investors are eagerly awaiting economic data scheduled for release on Wednesday morning, specifically focusing on the US trade deficit and the services industry. Additionally, in the afternoon, a new beige book summarizing economic activity will be published.
Furthermore, notable stocks such as GameStop, American Eagle Outfitters, and ChargePoint are set to announce their earnings after the closing bell.
Nasdaq continues displaying signs of strength by surpassing the 15,300-resistance level and heading towards the 16,000 mark, its previous peak. This higher level presents a formidable challenge for further advancement.​

USOIL

Oil prices fell on Wednesday due to a stronger dollar and investors' lack of concern about supply cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia. The dollar's strength, near a six-month high, made oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, impacting demand.
The market's uncertainty stemmed from a joint announcement by Saudi Arabia and Russia, extending their voluntary oil cuts until year-end. They plan to review these cuts monthly, allowing for flexibility. The market sensed the possibility of tapering due to factors like anti-inflation efforts and the impact on Saudi oil revenues.
Near-term supply concerns pushed front-month Brent futures to nine-month highs, trading at $4.13 a barrel above prices in six months. U.S. WTI futures showed a similar trend, with the spread between front-month and six-month contracts widening to as much as $4.88 a barrel, also near nine-month highs.
Analysts cautioned that price increases might face obstacles as U.S. refineries enter their maintenance period in September-October, potentially causing a dip in demand. Moreover, higher supply from Iran, Venezuela, and Libya could further impact prices.
The WTI broke the 84.5 level and is now at the 86 level marking a new high and getting out of its 10-month range. The next big target will be around the 90 levels.

Crypto

The Bitcoin market is currently experiencing a significant divergence between long-term holders (LTHs) and short-term holders (STHs), which has reached record levels. LTHs are investors who have held their coins for over 155 days and are often characterized by their unwavering commitment to not sell during volatile times, earning them the nickname "diamond hands." On the other hand, STHs are those who recently acquired their coins and are more likely to sell in response to fear, uncertainty, or profit opportunities.
Recent on-chain data reveals an intriguing trend: LTH supply has been steadily increasing in recent years, while STH supply has been decreasing. This suggests that the overall supply of Bitcoin is becoming less active, with LTHs holding a growing share of the total supply.
Currently, the gap between these two groups is the widest it has ever been. LTH supply is nearing 15 million BTC, while STH supply has fallen below 2.5 million BTC, the lowest since Bitcoin's early days in 2011. This decline in STH supply coincided with a recent sharp drop in Bitcoin's price from above $29,000 to below $26,000. However, LTHs seem unaffected by this volatility, as their supply continues to grow while STHs decrease.
Although the strength of the LTH group may not have an immediate impact on the market, over longer periods, the increasing accumulation of supply in the wallets of HODLers (LTHs) could have a bullish effect due to supply and demand dynamics.
Technically, BTC retraced towards the last solid support/resistance level around the 26000 mark, displaying a rejection at this level before descending. The next support is expected around the 25000 level.