Pre-Open US

[Zforex]

Stock Futures Rise, Oil Faces Resistance, Bitcoin's Low Volatility Signals Re-Accumulation

US INDICES:

The S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures both rose approximately 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively. This marks the start of the latest phase of a corporate earnings season, which has generally been viewed as surpassing expectations. According to FactSet, approximately 80% of companies within the S&P 500 that disclosed their quarterly outcomes have outperformed Wall Street's projections.
As the week progresses, investors will turn their attention to the release of July's consumer and producer price index data. These indicators are closely monitored as they provide insights into inflation trends and the overall state of the economy.
Nasdaq is forming a double top and currently testing its support level at 15250. If there's a breakout, the price may decline towards 15000, and subsequently 14000.​

USOIL:

After posting a sixth consecutive weekly gain oil reached an important resistance level challenged for the last 9 months after a boost from the supply side led by Saudi Arabia.

On the supply side, Saudi Arabia's announcement of a voluntary production cut of 10 million barrels per day to the end of September and Russia cutting oil exports by 300,000 barrels per day also helped reach the actual level. Also, the attack of a Ukrainian Naval drone on a Russian vessel spread elevated risk in the black sea especially Russian Oil exports impacting forcedly oil supplies.

Technically, WTI touched a historical level at 83 dollars and waiting for a possible reversal or a breakout. The next support will be the 80 and if a breakout happens the 83.5 will be the next resistance.

Crypto:

In recent weeks, Bitcoin's price volatility has reached historically low levels, as the BTC price has mainly traded between $29,000 and $30,000. However, beneath this calm appearance, several intriguing market dynamics are unfolding. According to Checkmate, the lead on-chain analyst at Glassnode, the realized volatility for Bitcoin has dropped to historical lows across 1-month to 1-year timeframes. This is the quietest period observed since March 2020. Historically, such low volatility aligns with the post-bear-market hangover periods, indicating a re-accumulation phase.​

Bitcoin

In addition to the low volatility, there is another significant development worth noting. Checkmate pointed out that Bitcoin's long-term holder supply has reached a new all-time high, standing at 14.59 million BTC, which represents 75% of the circulating supply. This surge in long-term holders indicates that a growing number of Bitcoin investors are confident in a future rally, resulting in a supply shortage. On the other hand, the lack of volatility is driving high-risk traders out of the market.
Technically, Bitcoin came back to its last support at the 30,000 level. A breakout of this level is necessary for any sustained short-term trend. The actual price action shows a rejection of the 30,000, and a possible comeback is more probable towards first the 28,800 support and followed by the 28,000.​

 

[Zforex]

Declines in Futures, Banking Sector Impact, Bitcoin ETF Speculation, and Oil Price Concerns

US INDICES:

S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures both experienced a 0.5% decline. Bank shares saw a widespread decrease following Moody’s credit rating downgrade for multiple banks, which included M&T Bank and Pinnacle Financial. Additionally, the Bank of NY Mellon and State Street are under review by the credit agency for potential downgrades.
Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase displayed lower premarket trading. The premarket performance of the SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) showed a 2.3% slip, while the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) dipped by 2%. In the midst of earnings season, UPS shares fell by over 5% as the delivery company reported Q2 revenue below expectations and revised its full-year revenue projection.
Nasdaq is forming a double top and currently testing its support level at 15250. If there's a breakout, the price may decline towards 15000, and subsequently 14000.​

USOIL:

Oil prices dropped over 2.7% as new data revealed China's July imports and exports fell significantly more than anticipated. This adds to concerns about the sluggish post-COVID recovery for the world's top oil importer. China's July oil imports plummeted by 18.8% from the previous month, hitting the lowest daily rate since January. Imports overall shrank by 12.4%, and exports declined by 14.5%. Despite this, some analysts expect China's fuel demand to improve from August to early October due to increased construction and manufacturing activities. Saudi Arabia and Russia's oil output cuts are also influencing the market.
From a technical perspective, WTI is undergoing corrections and has reached the resistance level within the 83 territory. Following its dip to the 80-support level, the subsequent target lies at 79, succeeded by 77.​

Crypto:

Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Invest, suggests that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could potentially approve several spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) simultaneously instead of granting approval to individual firms. This viewpoint contrasts with the prevailing expectation that Wood's firm might be among the first to receive approval for a spot Bitcoin ETF. She shared her insight in an interview with Bloomberg, stating, "I think the SEC, if it's going to approve a Bitcoin ETF, will approve more than one at once."
The prospect of SEC approval for a spot Bitcoin ETF has garnered significant attention within the crypto community and regulatory circles. Many companies competing for approval have previously submitted applications, only to encounter rejections that highlight apprehensions about the industry's maturity and vulnerability to price manipulation.
The Bitcoin market has entered a notably stable phase recently, leading to decreased volatility across various metrics. Glassnode, an on-chain analytics firm, examined this low volatility period in its report "Volatility Crush." The report indicates that current volatility aligns with spot prices.
Technically, Bitcoin came back to its last support at the 30,000 level. A breakout of this level is necessary for any sustained short-term trend. The actual price action shows a rejection of the 30,000, and a possible comeback is more probable towards first the 28,800 support and followed by the 28,000.​

 

[Zforex]

CPI Data Impact on Bitcoin and Emerging Trends in Oil and Stock Futures
​

US INDICES:

S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq-100 futures both increased by 0.6% and 0.7% respectively. The latest update on the Consumer Price Index is scheduled to be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones anticipate a 0.2% growth in July's CPI compared to the previous month, with a year-over-year increase of 3.3%.
Many individuals on Wall Street are anticipating further indications of disinflation from the CPI report and the producer price index to be released on Friday. Some regional manufacturing figures have also displayed signs of easing, as pointed out by Sahak Manuelian, the head of equity trading at Wedbush Securities.
In addition to the CPI, initial jobless claims and hourly earnings for July will be published on Thursday. On another note, Disney's stock rose by 1.4% after revealing an upcoming price adjustment for ad-free Disney+ subscriptions. The media conglomerate also announced better-than-expected earnings per share for the fiscal third quarter. Conversely, Six Flags saw a decline of 3.5% following a report that was worse than expected.
As of Thursday morning, over 90% of S&P 500 companies have disclosed their earnings for the quarter. Among these, around four-fifths have surpassed Wall Street's expectations, as reported by FactSet.
Nasdaq is forming a double top and currently testing its support level at 15250. If there's a breakout, the price may decline towards 15000, and subsequently 14000.

USOIL:

Recent days have seen a boost in oil prices due to Saudi Arabia and Russia extending output cuts. This has been accompanied by concerns about supply, driven by the potential for tensions between Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea region to impact Russian oil shipments.
Attention is focused on the upcoming release of July consumer price data from the United States on Thursday. This data is expected to offer insights into the future monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve.
Adding to the price dynamics, US crude inventories saw an unexpected increase of 5.9 million barrels in the past week, surpassing the 0.6 million barrel rise projected by analysts in a Reuters poll. This information was revealed by the US Energy Information Administration's Wednesday report.
Similarly, US crude oil exports encountered a remarkable reduction of 2.9 million barrels per day during the past week, marking a record-breaking decline. Notwithstanding this decline, market sentiment foresees a future increase in crude exports, attributed to the dynamics between US crude futures and the Brent spread. This viewpoint was conveyed by Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group.
Meanwhile, recent data has indicated that the consumer sector in China entered a state of deflation, and factory gate prices continued to decline throughout July. These trends have raised concerns about fuel demand in the world's second-largest economy.
Technically, WTI made an awaited breakout beyond the 83-resistance level and now the 100MA on the weekly channel will be the next challenge.​

BTC

The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data is set to be published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on August 10. Analyzing on-chain data suggests that there's a possibility of another Bitcoin (BTC) price rally, given the positive market response to the previous month's release.
The impact of the monthly CPI data on BTC prices has strengthened due to increasing Bitcoin adoption among governments and institutional investors. For instance, following the July 12 CPI data release, Bitcoin's price surged by 4%, reaching a new peak for 2023 at $31,500. The question now is whether Bitcoin can achieve a similar feat once again.
Historical data illustrates that Bitcoin has often experienced rallies when the market anticipates a decrease in CPI or a modest increase. For instance, the CPI data from July 12 indicated a mild inflation increase of only 1% in the prior month. In response, Bitcoin's price had risen by 5% in the week leading up to the release, followed by another 4% rally afterward, resulting in a new 2023 peak.
A comparable pattern has emerged in the current week. As of August 9, BTC's price closed at $29,900, reflecting a 4% increase from August 7. On-chain data suggests that crypto traders have been preparing for another round of optimistic price movement following the August 10 CPI release.
Technically, on the daily chart, it appears that yesterday's breakout on shorter time frames might be false, given that the price action is still clinging to the resistance level of 29790. A genuine breach of the current resistance could propel the price towards 31000, while a selloff might lead BTC back to the 100-day moving average on the daily chart.
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[Zforex]

US INDICES:

S&P 500 futures experienced a slight 0.1% decline, while Nasdaq 100 futures have seen a 0.2% decrease. The release of the July reading for the producer price index is scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET. According to economists surveyed by Dow Jones, the report is expected to reveal a 0.2% increase in month-over-month figures. This report follows yesterday's analysis of July's consumer price index, which indicated a 3.2% rise in prices on an annual basis. This was slightly below the anticipated 3.3% consensus estimate. However, the core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy costs, rose by 4.7% compared to the previous year. Looking at the week's performance, the S&P 500 is set for a 0.2% decline, and the Nasdaq for a 1.2% decline. Both indices are headed for their second consecutive week of losses, marking a notable occurrence for the Nasdaq, which hasn't experienced this since the end of a four-week losing streak in December 2022.
Nasdaq continues the selloff and closes near 15,000. If this support level is broken, the subsequent target could be 14,000.​

USOIL:

Oil prices rose as OPEC and the IEA offered positive demand outlooks. The IEA cautioned about potential inventory drops in 2023, possibly driving prices higher. However, demand growth is expected to slow to 1 million bpd in 2024. OPEC forecasted a 2.25 million bpd rise in global oil demand in 2024, reflecting continued growth in China. U.S. consumer price data for July hinted at the Federal Reserve nearing the end of rate hikes. Supply-wise, output cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia supported prices, alongside concerns of Russia-Ukraine conflict disrupting oil shipments. Mixed Chinese economic data impacted sentiment, with crude imports rising but overall exports dropping.
Technically, WTI made an awaited breakout beyond the 83-resistance level and now the 100MA on the weekly channel will be the next challenge.
​

BTC:
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies saw a slight decrease in value, exhibiting a stagnant trading trend that's causing concern among investors. Even hopes surrounding a significant catalyst are diminishing. Bitcoin's price dropped by less than 1% in the last 24 hours to $29,350, remaining below the crucial $30,000 mark that had previously provided support. The CEO of Blackfridge, Mike Crosbie, noted that Bitcoin is teetering just below $30,000 and the chances of an upward break are diminishing. Cryptocurrency trading volatility is historically low, prompting analysts to speculate on whether this calm period is a temporary phase or a permanent shift. Despite optimism about regulatory approval for a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), the current trading lull suggests approval might already be factored in, potentially leading to investor disappointment.

Technically, on the daily chart, it appears that yesterday's breakout on shorter time frames might be false, given that the price action is still clinging to the resistance level of 29790. A genuine breach of the current resistance could propel the price towards 31000, while a selloff might lead BTC back to the 100-day moving average on the daily chart.​

 

[Zforex]

Indices Diverge Amidst Volatility, OPEC+ Meeting Looms, and Bitcoin's Potential Catalysts
US INDICES:

NASDAQ

The S&P 500 (SPX) concluded its second consecutive week on a downtrend, with analysts continuing to emphasize its lofty valuation and the imminent risk of a market correction. The index experienced a 0.3% decline, testing the initial support level at 4450.
The Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC), skewed towards technology stocks, witnessed a 1.9% drop, following its previous decline of 2.85% during the first week of August. The index is currently approaching a critical near-term support threshold of approximately 13000.
Traders at JPMorgan have assessed a 40% likelihood of the market undergoing a retracement before resuming its upward trajectory for the year. This probability has risen from the previous estimate of 35%.
Barclays Plc strategists noted in a recent report that systematic investors are positioned close to their maximum long positions in equities, and the phase of short-covering has run its course. This suggests a higher probability of them shifting to selling mode in the event of a volatility surge.
A key contributor to the uptick in monthly inflation was the increase in shelter costs, which rose by 0.4%, leading to a 7.7% surge compared to the previous year. Adjusted for inflation, real wages experienced a 0.3% monthly boost and a 1.1% year-on-year rise.
Looking ahead to this week's developments, notable events include the release of U.S. retail sales data for July, scheduled for Tuesday. Furthermore, the publication of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes is set for Wednesday.
Nasdaq continues the selloff and closes near 15,000. If this support level is broken, the subsequent target could be 14,800 where the median line of the long bullish trend plays as support/reistance for the last 5 times.​

USOIL:

The OPEC+ panel is set to meet virtually on Friday, with attention focused on Saudi Arabia's production plans. While no major policy changes are anticipated, Saudi Arabia might indicate whether it will extend its 1 million bpd production cut into September. Oil prices showed a slight increase.
The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) of OPEC+ meets to assess recent market developments. Saudi Arabia's potential extension of its production cut is drawing attention, as analysts predict its continuation due to stable oil prices. Riyadh aims to maintain market stability after a recent price recovery. The JMMC is unlikely to recommend altering the current production policy during this meeting.
Oil prices were slightly lower due to a risk-off sentiment after a U.S. Long-Term Ratings downgrade by Fitch. Prices quickly rebounded, trading flat. The market anticipates Saudi Arabia's decision on extending the production cut after the JMMC meeting and before the official selling prices (OSPs) announcement. OSPs are typically released around the 5th of the month preceding the loading month.
Technically, WTI made an awaited breakout beyond the 83-resistance level and now the 100MA on the weekly channel playing the role of resistance level. Also, the bullish trend line on the daily chart continues to support the actual trend.​

Crypto

Goldman Sachs economists, including Jan Hatzius and David Mericle, predict potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by June 2024, aiming to normalize rates as inflation nears the target. This adjustment reflects Goldman's view that current rates might be too restrictive amid inflation trends. However, the bank acknowledges the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's decisions, highlighting the possibility that they might maintain the status quo.
Recent data indicating a slower-than-expected rise in US inflation at 3.2%, with a 4.7% annual pace for the core consumer price index, complicates the outlook. With the Fed's benchmark rate between 5.25% to 5.5%, Goldman Sachs anticipates stabilization around 3 to 3.25%.
These projections align with market expectations, as indicated by the CME FedWatch Tool, with 68% anticipating a minimum 25 basis point rate cut by May 2024.
The potential convergence of favorable factors could positively impact the Bitcoin market. Coinciding with Bitcoin ETF filing deadlines from BlackRock, Fidelity, Investco, VanEck, and WisdomTree on March 15, 2024, Bitcoin halving is expected by the end of April (around April 26). These events, coupled with the Federal Reserve's accommodative policy, might serve as a substantial catalyst for Bitcoin's price.
Technically, on the daily chart, it appears that yesterday's breakout on shorter time frames might be false, given that the price action is still clinging to the resistance level of 29790. A genuine breach of the current resistance could propel the price towards 31000, while a selloff might lead BTC back to the 100-day moving average on the daily chart.

 

[Zforex]

Negative Global Sentiment Amid China's Economic Concerns, Oil Stabilization, and Bitcoin Halving Anticipation ​

US INDICES:

Global sentiment turned negative as disappointing data emerged from China, accompanied by an unexpected interest rate reduction by the country's central bank. China's July industrial production rose by 3.7%, falling short of expectations, and retail sales also grew less than anticipated. The People's Bank of China cut rates by 15 basis points to 2.5%, but instead of alleviating investor worries, it raised concerns about a potential property crisis in China.
In the premarket, shares of major banks such as JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America declined. This followed a warning from Fitch that it might downgrade several banks, including JPMorgan Chase. Moody's had also recently downgraded the ratings of ten U.S. institutions and placed others on watch for potential downgrades.
Despite a positive Wall Street session driven by Nvidia's rally, some experts, like Alicia Levine from BNY Mellon Wealth Management, are preparing for consolidation as yields remain high, although the market might still see more gains by year-end.
Upcoming earnings releases from major retailers, including Home Depot, Target, and Walmart, are expected to garner attention. Home Depot's strong earnings report led to a slight rise in its stock before the market opened.
Looking ahead, Wall Street is focused on July retail sales data, import and export price information, and August's NAHB housing market index to gain insights into the consumer's state and economic conditions.
Nasdaq continues the selloff and closes near 15,000. If this support level is broken, the subsequent target could be 14,000.

​

USOIL:

Crude oil prices stabilized as traders evaluated the tightness of the market in comparison to China's struggling post-COVID economic recovery. Brent crude stood at $86.16 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude reached $82.42/b early Tuesday.
China released data indicating heightened pressure on the economy from various angles, leading Beijing to lower key policy rates in order to stimulate activity, as reported by Reuters on Tuesday. China's central bank unexpectedly decreased one set of key interest rates and later in the day, made additional cuts to other rates, according to the report.
Supply reductions by Saudi Arabia and Russia, members of the OPEC+ group that includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, played a role in boosting prices over the past seven weeks.
In a more positive development, refinery throughput in July saw a 17.4% increase compared to the previous year in the world's largest oil-importing country. Refiners maintained elevated output to meet the demand for domestic summer travel and to capitalize on lucrative regional profit margins by exporting fuel.
Technically, WTI is corrected and finding support around the 100MA at the 81.30 level while the next support is at 79.00.​

Crypto

Bitcoin miners are accumulating BTC as they prepare for the upcoming halving event in April 2024. This accumulation trend began after a drop in Bitcoin's price from $30,000 and is seen as a protective measure against potential resistance from buyers. The halving, which occurs every four years, cuts miners' rewards in half to slow new BTC creation and potentially increase its value. This upcoming halving will reduce rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block. Miners' improved liquidity positions, partly due to the excitement around BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs), have contributed to this accumulation. Institutional crypto investors are exercising caution due to the sluggish market and reduced trading volumes. Bitcoin funds have seen significant outflows, while institutional investors have stopped shorting BTC, opting to lock in profits.
From a technical perspective, on the daily chart, the price action remains attached to the resistance level of 29790. A genuine breach of the current resistance could propel the price towards 31000, while a selloff might lead BTC back to the 100-day moving average on the daily chart.​

 

[Zforex]

Indices Experience Losses Amid Economic Concerns, Oil Prices Steady, and Bitcoin's Taproot Upgrade Drives Innovation ​

US INDICES:

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures saw slight gains as well. These movements occurred after a negative session on Wall Street, where all three main indices closed over 1% lower on Tuesday. This resulted in the Dow breaking a three-day winning streak.
Financial stocks, including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America, experienced declines after Fitch issued a warning about potential credit rating downgrades for numerous banks. This situation adds to the challenges the sector is facing, following Moody's decision last week to downgrade ratings for 10 banks and place other institutions on a watchlist.
Regional bank shares also faced difficulties due to remarks made by Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari concerning potential capital regulation. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) concluded the session with a 3.3% decrease.
Furthermore, investor sentiment was affected by economic news from China. Retail sales and industrial production growth fell short of economists' expectations, as revealed by Tuesday's data. Additionally, the country's central bank implemented an interest rate cut.
As August is just past its midpoint, the three major indices are on track to experience a month of losses. The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 are projected to decline by 5% and 3.3% respectively, while the Dow is expected to drop by 1.7%.
Nasdaq continues the selloff and closes near 15,000. If this support level is broken, the subsequent target could be 14,000.
​

​

USOIL:

Oil prices showed little change on August 16 as investors balanced worries about China's struggling economy with expectations of reduced supply in the US. Brent crude futures slipped 7 cents to $84.82 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped 8 cents to $81.91 a barrel. Both benchmarks had fallen over 1% in the previous session, reaching their lowest points since August 8.
China's economy is causing concern due to disappointing retail sales, industrial output, and investment figures. This has raised worries about a prolonged growth slowdown. The country's central bank made a minor interest rate cut in response, but analysts consider it insufficient to have a meaningful impact. The OPEC+ group and the International Energy Agency are looking to China to boost crude demand for the remainder of 2023, but skepticism about this is growing.
US crude stocks decreased by approximately 6.2 million barrels the previous week, a larger reduction than the 2.3 million expected by Reuters-polled analysts. US government inventory data is scheduled for later on the same day. The oil market's fourth-quarter outlook depends on China's macroeconomic situation, with Saudi Arabia and Russia's supply cuts having boosted oil prices recently.
From a technical standpoint, WTI is corrected, and the next support levels are the area between 80 and 79.​

Crypto

The Bitcoin Taproot upgrade, activated in November 2021, is a significant advancement enhancing network privacy, efficiency, and smart contract capabilities. It combines multiple conditions into transactions for increased privacy and efficiency. Its key features include Schnorr Signatures, Tapscript, and Taproot itself, which collectively improve transaction validation speed, block space efficiency, and data storage. The upgrade's potential benefits encompass enhanced privacy, lower transaction fees, innovative smart contracts, and improved network security. This milestone empowers developers to create decentralized finance solutions and accelerates transactions, fostering efficiency and reduced costs. Overall, the Taproot upgrade represents a crucial step in Bitcoin's development, offering innovative features and paving the way for a new era in cryptocurrency.
Technically, on the daily chart, price action is still clinging to the resistance level of 29790. A genuine breach of the current resistance could propel the price towards 31000, while a selloff might lead BTC back to the 100-day moving average on the daily chart.
​

 

[Zforex]

Indices Experience Losses Amid Economic Concerns, Oil Prices Steady, and Bitcoin's Taproot Upgrade Drives Innovation ​

US INDICES:

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures saw slight gains as well. These movements occurred after a negative session on Wall Street, where all three main indices closed over 1% lower on Tuesday. This resulted in the Dow breaking a three-day winning streak.
Financial stocks, including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America, experienced declines after Fitch issued a warning about potential credit rating downgrades for numerous banks. This situation adds to the challenges the sector is facing, following Moody's decision last week to downgrade ratings for 10 banks and place other institutions on a watchlist.
Regional bank shares also faced difficulties due to remarks made by Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari concerning potential capital regulation. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) concluded the session with a 3.3% decrease.
Furthermore, investor sentiment was affected by economic news from China. Retail sales and industrial production growth fell short of economists' expectations, as revealed by Tuesday's data. Additionally, the country's central bank implemented an interest rate cut.
As August is just past its midpoint, the three major indices are on track to experience a month of losses. The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 are projected to decline by 5% and 3.3% respectively, while the Dow is expected to drop by 1.7%.
Nasdaq continues the selloff and closes near 15,000. If this support level is broken, the subsequent target could be 14,000.

USOIL:

Oil prices showed little change on August 16 as investors balanced worries about China's struggling economy with expectations of reduced supply in the US. Brent crude futures slipped 7 cents to $84.82 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped 8 cents to $81.91 a barrel. Both benchmarks had fallen over 1% in the previous session, reaching their lowest points since August 8.
China's economy is causing concern due to disappointing retail sales, industrial output, and investment figures. This has raised worries about a prolonged growth slowdown. The country's central bank made a minor interest rate cut in response, but analysts consider it insufficient to have a meaningful impact. The OPEC+ group and the International Energy Agency are looking to China to boost crude demand for the remainder of 2023, but skepticism about this is growing.
US crude stocks decreased by approximately 6.2 million barrels the previous week, a larger reduction than the 2.3 million expected by Reuters-polled analysts. US government inventory data is scheduled for later on the same day. The oil market's fourth-quarter outlook depends on China's macroeconomic situation, with Saudi Arabia and Russia's supply cuts having boosted oil prices recently.
From a technical standpoint, WTI is corrected, and the next support levels are the area between 80 and 79.
​

Crypto

The Bitcoin Taproot upgrade, activated in November 2021, is a significant advancement enhancing network privacy, efficiency, and smart contract capabilities. It combines multiple conditions into transactions for increased privacy and efficiency. Its key features include Schnorr Signatures, Tapscript, and Taproot itself, which collectively improve transaction validation speed, block space efficiency, and data storage. The upgrade's potential benefits encompass enhanced privacy, lower transaction fees, innovative smart contracts, and improved network security. This milestone empowers developers to create decentralized finance solutions and accelerates transactions, fostering efficiency and reduced costs. Overall, the Taproot upgrade represents a crucial step in Bitcoin's development, offering innovative features and paving the way for a new era in cryptocurrency.
Technically, on the daily chart, price action is still clinging to the resistance level of 29790. A genuine breach of the current resistance could propel the price towards 31000, while a selloff might lead BTC back to the 100-day moving average on the daily chart.
​

 

[Zforex]

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures Rise, Oil Prices Edge Up with Economic Concerns, Bitcoin Faces Challenges

US INDICES:

Futures linked to the S&P 500 experienced a 0.5% gain, while Nasdaq-100 futures rose by 0.6%. Contracts tied to the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 saw increases, aiming to recover from three weeks of decline. Ahead of regular trading, Palo Alto Networks Inc. surged as its cybersecurity company's billings projection surpassed expectations.
Investors are rebounding from a week of losses as the market navigates a subdued summer period. The Nasdaq Composite concluded the week with a roughly 2.6% decrease, marking its third consecutive weekly decline since December. Meanwhile, the Dow also experienced a 2.2% decline for the week, its most significant decrease since March. The S&P 500 fell by 2.1%, recording its third successive week of losses, a scenario last observed in February.
Investors considered the implications of escalating bond yields and vulnerabilities in China, which exerted a dampening influence on markets in a period typically characterized by subdued activity.
Nasdaq is experiencing a selloff towards the next target at the median line of the current bullish channel at the 14750 level. If the selling pressure persists, the next support level would be around 14260.​

USOIL:

Oil prices inched up on Monday due to reduced exports from Saudi Arabia and Russia, along with elevated heating oil prices, which overshadowed concerns about global demand growth amid high-interest rates. The September WTI contract is set to expire on Tuesday, while the more active October contract saw an increase of 78 cents, reaching $81.44 per barrel. After a 7-week winning streak, both front-month benchmark prices experienced a 2% weekly loss last week, driven by worries that China's sluggish economic growth could negatively impact oil demand and uncertainties surrounding the potential continuation of the U.S. interest rate hike cycle. Despite China's economic challenges, the country is utilizing its record inventories built up earlier this year, as refiners reduce purchases following supply reductions by OPEC and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+. These supply cuts pushed global prices above $80 a barrel. Nevertheless, Saudi Arabia's July shipments to China decreased by 31% compared to June, while Russia, thanks to its discounted crude, remained China's primary supplier, as indicated by Chinese customs data.
WTI price action found support and is currently undergoing a correction from the expected level of 78.7. The next level to watch for will be the challenge of the previous high at 85.

Crypto
Bitcoin experienced a decline, while other cryptocurrencies showed mixed performance on Monday following a significant sell-off towards the end of the previous week. This sell-off caused digital assets to breach crucial technical levels, potentially leading to further drops.
In the last 24 hours, the price of Bitcoin decreased by just under 1%, reaching $26,050. This stabilization occurred around the $26,000 mark after the preceding week's plummet, which had driven the primary cryptocurrency from approximately $29,000 to around $25,500.
While the market retains a position above the local lows witnessed in June, optimism prevails for the continuation of an upward trend. Nonetheless, concerns arise due to July's highs being lower than those observed in April.
The sell-off that impacted Bitcoin marked a substantial change in the cryptocurrency markets, which had been relatively stagnant until the previous week. Despite a period of subdued activity in the stock market, characterized by volatility in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500, Bitcoin experienced a sudden decline last week, surprising the markets and prompting traders to search for explanations.
Technically, BTC has broken the trend channel and the trend line that supported the price and also the 200MA. The next support is expected to be around 25,000. This level has functioned as a strong support and resistance level in the last four instances.

 

[Zforex]

Nasdaq Rebounds with Rising Yields, Bitcoin's Volatility, and the Enigmatic Rise of a Bitcoin Wallet

US INDICES:

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures both added 0.3% and 0.4%.
The Nasdaq Composite posted its biggest advance of the month during Monday’s main trading session, rising 1.6%. The S&P 500 added close to 0.7%. The two benchmarks snapped a four-day slide, and the Nasdaq notched its biggest one-day advance since August.
Notably, the broad market index and the tech-heavy Nasdaq were able to post gains even as the yield on the 10-year Treasury reached its highest level since November 2007, gaining about 9 basis points to trade at 4.34%. Tech shares historically struggle in a high-rate environment, making the tandem rise with yields on Monday more striking for Wall Street.
On the economic data front, Wall Street will be looking toward the Philadelphia Fed’s nonmanufacturing survey, as well as the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing survey results. Existing home sales data for July is also scheduled for release Tuesday morning.
Traders are also anticipating Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole on Friday for more insight into the Central Bank’s inflation outlook.
Nasdaq is bouncing after coming close to the 14500 level. The short-term selloff is still persistent. The 100MA and also the Fibonacci close to 14400 are making a solid confluence point and the price may face a solid support there.

WTI

China's recent surge in crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia is driven by heightened purchases from key Asian buyers. Despite August's increased arrivals, this rise isn't expected to have an immediate significant impact. Major importers like China, Japan, India, and Taiwan are projected to collectively raise Saudi crude imports by 1.2 million barrels per day, hitting historic highs. China's shift towards Saudi crude is due to constrained Russian Urals crude supply and pricing. Although August saw a rise in Saudi oil imports, experts predict Chinese purchases to stay modest in Q3 (July-September). Saudi Arabia still trails behind Russia, its OPEC+ partner, in delivering crude oil to China. July saw Russia surpass Saudi Arabia as China's top crude oil supplier, despite higher prices and narrower discounts. Russian imports in July were up 13% from 2022, while Saudi imports declined by 14% YoY and 31% from June 2023. Analysts anticipate Chinese demand for Saudi oil to recover in the long term.
The WTI price action on a daily basis appears to be forming a head and shoulders reversal pattern. The current support level is at 79, and a breakout below this level could potentially lead the price toward the next target of 77.​

BTC

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies stabilized on Tuesday following a recent selloff that interrupted a period of low volatility. Yet, crypto traders remain cautious about potential future turbulence.
Bitcoin's price stayed around $26,050 in the past 24 hours after plummeting to about $25,500 recently. This revisited a low point seen after last week's selloff, marking the lowest since mid-June. Analysts fear further declines, especially as Bitcoin trades below key technical levels, including the 200-day moving average.
In just three months, an anonymous Bitcoin wallet surged to become the world's third-largest holder, amassing a remarkable 118,000 BTC, worth about $3.08 billion at the current $26,100 price. This rapid accumulation sparked debates over its mysterious owner.
Experts suggest different possibilities. While some think it might be a cryptocurrency exchange performing a large transfer, others imaginatively link it to BlackRock, a major asset management firm. However, the BlackRock theory lacks solid evidence and has led to comical posts featuring actual black rocks.
Technically, BTC has broken the trend channel and the trend line that supported the price and also the 200MA. The next support is expected to be around 25,000. This level has functioned as a strong support and resistance level in the last four instances.​