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Sir Pipsalot's Market Outlook 12-2-2010

Discussion in 'Commercial Trade Journals' started by Sir Pipsalot, Dec 2, 2010.

  1. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey folks,

    I've been caught up the last couple of days tending to my sick baby daughter, but I've continued to track this move on the EUR/USD and believe it may be setting up for a good "sell on rally" type opportunity here in this retracement phase. For those who missed the short trade I entered around 1.3750 last Sunday/Monday, it looks like the next key area to sell EUR/USD is the 1.3280 to 1.3380 range, but possibly as high as 1.3470. This bounce is very likely to be a retracement, not a reversal, so a rally retracing somewhere between 38 to 50% of the sell off from Nov 22nd is the likely target; however, sometimes the EUR/USD finds a way to manage 61.8%.

    It's a good time to take some profits on shorts (if you haven't already... now around 1.3100) and consider reentering at a higher price. Or if you're not in, consider initial entry as described. Either way, I'd look to sell initially around 1.3280, adding more around 1.3375 and use a SL somewhere a bit above 1.3470. You could try small limit order scalps at those levels with 20-40 pip TP/SL, or use those spots as entry to build or add to a position trade as I am... or consider each a separate swing trade... it's really up to you based on your style of trading.

    As always though, it's possible I'm right about the continued downtrend, but wrong about the subpattern, so I continue to hold the planned portion of my position trade short from 1.3750 looking for another 600 pips or so from here. My medium to long term bearish outlook remains undeterred thusfar and in fact, strengthened by the price action over the last week and a half.

    To Our Success!
    Sir Pipsalot
     
  2. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Looks like we worked well into my sell region ("1.3280 to 1.3380 range, but possibly as high as 1.3470") here on Friday and Sunday/Monday topping out around 1.3430 late Friday. It's now showing signs of reversal and is a clear long term sell here in the low to mid 1.3300's as I highlighted last week.
     

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