Discuss SuperTradeSystem.com

[Cyclon]

I think it will help if I lower my standards

I think it will help if I lower my standards​

From now on I will give my system a break and help with the trouble that a highly accurate trading system gives people. I will say that it is 99.9% and call it close enough. That should help and give anyone an idea that you can make lots of pips with it.

Oh and that CAD/CHF trade is not finished running so it has an exit strategy just the same as others. I would also like to help with that thought. Can't go into full detail but should be able to cover it with a couple pics.

Now you would not expect to find a whole lot of supertrades in that consolidation between the blue lines. ( You said, "Right" ). There would be some even though that is an M15 chart. You may have to be quick and each leg would be different and there is a 1/2 Minute limit on the fast side. Most likely you may find that you'll have a few of the faster new signal and then get a setup that branches outside there.

Let's compare another pic...

Now aside from being inverted and on on a Weekly chart the area inside the blue lines will behave similarly. It will give more time between setups on the larger scales inside of course and when they set up to leave the area is when you definitely want to be on them.

Sometimes we do not observe often enough what a humongous scale today's markets are running on. And a consolidation's job is to return to large governing scale and trends or pause so they are not left too far behind. Simple trendline support concepts.

So we have only a few longer term setups right now. We have one Daily, a couple 1/2 daily a couple H8 I think. Then we have 40 others in the queue that are mostly below H2.

You cannot force the scale - it is what it is.

Most trades from the system come through on smaller scales anyway.

Now there were too many pics so see the next post

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[Cyclon]

99.9 continued...

The following pics are just here in May on one pair...

CHF/JPY May 6, 2009 Long at 86.53

CHF/JPY May 11, 2009 Short at 89.15

CHF/JPY May 18, 2009 Long at 84.14

This is the area. It is not quite done but if you just closed it now and took May pips it's 1267 pips just on Chf/Jpy.

That area is similar to the M15 of Eur/Usd in post above as it enters a consolidation off an upleg before the area shown but only on a bit larger scale.

The first was one of the new signals and the other two pivots were right out of the ebook. The setups of either type are put on the watchlist primarily by the other members, not me. My contributions to the list are in the minority. Something to be said for worldwide cooperation.

Now on a setup that is put on the list 2 weeks before it hits the trigger and not get picked up is a real shame. There is a lot going on so I am posting this:

HELP WANTED: Pip Hounds
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That is a good job with great benefits 8- )

So come and help us out. But I do not see anything hindsighted when the rules get you to the same location as me. That would take some real convincing - rules is rules. There is a solid group of real experts and new ones coming on so you can definitely share in the work and the benefits.

We'll show ya how.



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Cheers,
Cyclon

 

[Cyclon]

This is such an excellent example

This is such an excellent example...

It also is a welcome reminder of the accuracy of the system but moreso of the precision built into the tick data.

There are always going to be some who believe that markets are random. Nothing could be further from the truth and this is NOT my "hobby".

There was mention recently of 100% vs 99.9% and bad data vs good data and rules of the system. This is all fine because these are not bad problems to have.

Here is a pic of the latest Primary Trade Signal on Usd/Chf Short @ 1.0952 6/9 Trigger 5:15 GMT+1 which shows some amazing accuracy:

This trigger was with 0 pips Drawdown - that's smack dab on the signal line. It also was only 33 pips from the trend extreme which had exhausted and shown us the "SIGNS". Now it has gone on a 300 pip tear.

Darn right that's a "Nice" welcome back.

So here we have a fine illustration of finding out what the market is telling us. It is built upon the data the market has in its pure tick data and benefits from a de-containerizing technique.

What's that?

It simply takes away the numerical relationship destroying effect of artificial containers called bars or candles. Also the practice of "picking" a favorite size container - known as choosing a Timeframe - and the errors which that causes, are also done away with by the same technique.

....

So this all ties in. On the one hand we are able to actually know by the precision and accuracy combined - just which is the best data available on Metatrader Platforms. That's right, when our continuation signals disagree with another data set and it repeatedly gives the expected continuation then we can isolate the bad feed that had shown a different signal. That was resolved last year.

This does not mean the data is perfect or not manipulated at all from the actual true and pure feed that would exist if not tampered with ( and only proveable by the repetitious accuracy observed ).

But this is a fantastic data feed. We hope it stays this way for a while and then gets better. Some other feeds have daily bars that are unrecognizable to this set.

So we have two advantages working. We have great data (not perfect but great).

AND...

We have the ability to catch a beautiful signal on 1 pip accuracy at a low risk entry.

To do this we have mechanical rules which are also precise and at times you need to open your data window because the signal line needs to roll over and make at least a 1 pip turn.

This works but as you may imagine that if this is this sensitive and accurate then the data plays an important role. I have seen that if you adjust it to be more 'loose' and only take signals at 2 pips turn you may lose out on some good trades. Also on rare occasions if you take a signal with 1 pip turn you could be seeing a false reading.

Just as with identifying the best data available you need a very cohesive and accurate system if you are going to be able to say a signal was false rather than just a factor of the accuracy of said system.

When you work with the numerical relationships and you see it working constantly you trust what you are working with. It's that basic. You can fret about the data which you cannot control or just take normal precautions and go about taking incredible signals and work off the other 99.9% which work.

The forex trading community is dealing with a quandry about unregulated brokers whose terms stipulate that they can just show you any representation of the market they choose and not even always the same for each customer.

The forex trading community is dealing with a terrible failure rate by using techniques which are still based on Thousand Year Old technical analysis methods as though something will change if they do not change the method.

So all in all I'll take the "problems" I've got.

You're invited to share the problems if you want. There is a group of nutcases at Supertradersclub that think there is more than randomness and chaos in the market.

Cheers,
nutcase1

 

[Cyclon]

Update

Update

The recent Supertradersclub watch list tally has a pip count of more than 26,000 pips.

Honestly though I need for more people to take advantage of this because the more people that participate then the load can be lightened and spread around - and - so can the pips!

We monitor around 30 instruments on 15 speed settings on a 24 hr basis.

Nice thing is that even though you monitor a few you share them all!


This was sent to my email last night:

Andre writes,

"I would like to thank you for making your system available and at a more than reasonable price. I think your system's very good if not the best system out there."

Cheers,
Cyclon

Edit: Forgot my give credit where credit is due. I would like to thank Gert for doing those analysis tallies in a nice format.

 

[Cyclon]

Do you know when to get IN?

Do you know when to get IN?​

Someone said this is THE SYSTEM. I agree. It is.

But not because of what it does or how it does it.

It's just that THIS is what the market is doing.

So while all the dust flies about I post another pic
which is a result of the work of the Supertraders
using the live collaborative watchlist:

The mechanical steps to reach that signal trigger
has an entry timestamp when it was put on the list.

6/11/2009 10:39:39

It has a trigger price and bar entry:

160.12 6/30Trig 8:00


But all we do is watch that retracement from 6/23
and get a signal generated by the market.

It might say no-trade. It said go short and do it here!

Somewher in the ensuing 1300 pips you might
make some money.

Here is a quote from one of the Supertraders on
the chat tonight:

"23:11 Touizi: I am fulltime trader thanks to STAR"

He knows when AND where to get IN!

( get the system! )

Cheers,
Cyclon

 

[Cyclon]

What speed should I use?

What speed should I use?​

A while ago I wrote something in which I pointed out the first question you will always hear from a newbie.

"What Timeframe should I use?"

You should give them credit for spotting the unanswered question in most educational materials for trading, no matter what the market.

No one will give a straight answer because it gets way too complicated. The real truth of the matter is that there is no clear answer because the question is wrong.

Most will already know the following basics, that timeframes are methods of grouping data into containers for display. These bars or candles have their features of open, high, low and closing values. Those are then used for basing indicator settings.

OK so how does that relate to the 'question' being wrong?


Very simple... the candle is a man-made vessel for displaying arbitrary amounts of data. This actually has nothing to do with markets. The market does NOT recognize a 15 minute bar, or ANY other size. There is NO rule, NO system, NO common denominator for the relationship of the close of one bar to the low of another (or any other combo), no matter what the size of container. Nothing that will hold up anyways, even though you may occasionally be able to get 'things that "work"'.

So while collecting our data into bars is a convenience and even a necessity, it leaves out an obvious feature of markets.

This feature and also the fibonacci relationships inherent in all tick data have been lost in the translation of what the market "says". So what is this "feature", so obvious, yet which we've been unable to see?

Very simple... SPEED CHANGES.

This stares us in the face every time we look at a chart and yet there is no mention of it. A momentum indicator or any other similar device, or a system which incorporates one into a 'method' will still suffer from the weakness of not taking the speed changes into account first, and instead, relying on the blind arbitrary candle to render the reading.


Allow me to demonstrate how simple and obvious this is.

The following chart has a 100 period Simple Moving Average on it, a fairly slow setting, especially in volatile forex.

The area in the tan elipse has the MA wobbling through it, getting turned easily. The area in the gray is quite obviously running at a different SPEED! It's faster. What accounts for the speed change, what speed IS it, and where or when or how is it determined?

In other words, "What SPEED should I use"?


The market set the speed for the faster area inside the tan area. This was the setup for a 5000 pip run (it all couldn't fit in that pic and show what I needed to demonstrate and the 100 SMA had nothing to do with the trade).


However the measurement of speed produces great results. This actually gets done to prepare for exhaustion analysis, then pullback analysis, then again after the trade is put on to check for slowing or growth which indicates a continuing run. Even the terminology gets to be a problem since the feature so obviously present has no language because it previously had no recognition. Language aside, however there are mechanical steps to locate the "tells".

Resulting signals come out of them such as this:

Not the red check but the trigger on that purple indicator.


Now I can imagine that when someone sees the pictures I have which show these indicators catching the supertrend's reversal on the retracement, they may think that this is ONE standard indicator like they are used to using.


It is not. Each one is different and the market has told us which one to use. It has also told us on which timeframe to use it.

The combination of settings and timeframe is "SPEED" of analysis.


So therefore the appearance may be that these are just some cherrypicked location where the indicator has coincidentally wrapped around favorably and the picture is snapped. But the reality is that these are cherry picked by the market. The settings are handed to us.



What is the first question you hear from a newbie?

"What Timeframe should I use?"

Answer: If that is all you do is choose timeframe, it won't matter. The results will be statistically similar to the results of traders as a group in any market. It isn't pretty.

Cheers,
Cyclon

 

[Rat]

Fraud !

This is NOT system. This is FRAUD!

Rat

 

[Cyclon]

Be ready

Last Summer I mentioned that the Big Guns were gonna reload to Fire big rounds. Then some of the largest moves ever happened. Well I am going to give a little bit more warning this time as I say the same thing now. Be ready.The Good Rats - Rat City in Blue

 

[Cyclon]

Long Term, Quick-n-Dirty or Both

Watchlist Trade Setup Distribution Information​

I thought I would post some distribution information collected from the Watchlist's setup entry form.
It's pretty self-explanatory except the time period over which it has accumulated so far.
That is from late January to late August 2009.

Timeframes Distribution:

There have been 950 setup entries in the last 7 months.


This morning's pips came from the CABLE:

That's the way ya do it.

Cheers,
Cyclon

 

[Cyclon]

A Nice Software is being given FREE Today

A Nice Software is being given FREE Today ​

There is a very handy tool that I have used and it is being given away.​

It is Magnifying Glass Pro 1.8 which can be used to zoom in on your trading station (or any other item on your screens).​

The thing which is extra nice about this is that you can set the program to activate in different modes for different programs.​

The site giving this program away is here:
http:// www. giveawayoftheday . com​

There is a time limit (the program will change to something else at midnight PST [ GMT - 8 ] ) so I added the spaces to that link so that the moderation delay will not cause someone to miss this chance for the freebie.​

Cheers,
Cyclon​

Edit: I used the Magnifier to zoom in on our chat session from this afternoon and also to 'snap' it to the clipboard. The Gentleman in the chat is using some "Other" kind of magnifier for his account. 8- )​