Re: Confused...
On Fri, Mar 13, 2009 at 9:29 AM, [TR=""] wrote:
Hello Tom,
I come across your website, read most part, found a forum on Forex Peace Army website, read all posts
from all 14 pages. I must say, after so much time spent, I am more confused than ever. Even after reading
the FAQ, I am still confused what this is. I have studied, just a little bit, some of the "predictive" methods
to trade the market, some were about astrology, some were about Elliot Waves, some were about Gann fan,
etc. I consider myself a pretty smart person (have a doctor's degree) and I am good at math, but I couldn't
seem to figure out those methods, and some of them actually involved A LOT of work and research (can
probably get another doctor's degree for that......) From the reactions people had on the forum, it seems
Duane is the only one that had your method figured out!!??
Please allow a few questions, and please give me the answers in the simplest way possible, such as yes
or no! LOL
1. Is your method difficult?
[NO] Is it subjective?
[NO] In other words, if I learn your system very well, and if we look at
the same chart using the same method, will we be able to come up with the exact same entry levels every time?
[YES]
2. The "tools" you talked about. Are they proprietary indicators,
[NO] or they are something that's available for
most of the trading platforms,
[YES] such as TradeStation?
3. Does this method work on ALL time frames?
[YES] What are the largest and smallest time frames you have
applied your method to? (While making thousands of pips per trade sounds really nice, it could also be
very boring if I can only make one trade per month......)
4. I understand the system works on ALL pairs. But have you tried it on other markets other than Gold?
Will it work on Oil, or emini markets?
[YES]
Well, honestly, I am in a stage of confusion, so badly I don't even know what else to ask! LOL! If I under
stand correctly, after learning this STAR system, I should be able to anticipate an entry ahead of time,
"know" where the market will reverse, and just wait for the price to get there and place my order.
[YES - ONLY IF SIGNALLED AND TRIGGERED OF COURSE]
Guess my biggest concern is whether I can really learn and understand this method, and apply it in
actual trading.
[YES] Since I am sure I am not the only smart guy on earth, if most people couldn't figure it
out, who am I to say that I will.
[MOST CAN - DON'T WORRY ABOUT IT]
Are you still running without a loss?
[YES - BUT WE DID ADD A RULE FOR LOCATION WHICH IS A NEW CRITERIA - IT IS IN THE FORUM AND YOU'LL NEED TO REGISTER - IT WORKS FINE]
Thank you very much for your time! I am very interested!!
[YOU ARE MOST WELCOME - AND THANK YOU]
Warm regards,
------
Hi ------,
Thank You for your interest. Yours is a very GOOD letter by the way. I answer your questions inline on your email directly but also add the following:
You may be only seeing the problems some people have. For instance someone just posted a review where they say it is very complex (same day they bought it 3/7). This person also wrote me about 3 hours after they downloaded it and said the same thing as in their review. They asked why I haven't provided an indicator for this. This is a manual method and it perhaps strikes some as too much work. I happen to think that not having the right system to match your market is a lot of work. Now this person also finally got registered on the forum after 10 more back and forth emails for support to do this. The entire signup process has clear instructions that they would need to register on the forum. I finally had to send annotated pictures with circles around the links.
Now someone else sent me screenshots of a perfectly correct setup 3 hours after buying it and was in 50 pips profit later that day on a 2 minute setup.
(This was not Duane)
8- )
And so the other experiences in many shades are in between. If you can explain to me why some can and some can't it would be very much appreciated.
My thread (here) on FPA attempts to get someone interested enough to look into it. I can only provide so much or only show just so much because it is able to be easily copied, being a generic technical method with standard indicators. Believe me it is simple - just not easy -
as any other manual technical method is simple - just not easy.
It uses MA crossovers - simple. It is not subjective in the least, purely mechanical - 100%. There are 5 aspects to look for so you may have a basis to do a pullback evaluation with clear rules for performing these.
All of that is done on one tool which has only MA's on it ( this one has not ever been shown - it is
THAT giveaway simple). The MA crossovers provide the settings for the 2nd and final tool.
The 2nd tool, called up according to those settings ( open a provided template containing that setting ) will tell you with 100% accuracy if you will have a continuation or a reversal. This has only MA's on it.
If a reversal, then it will have a rollover of its MA as the catch point (trigger). Now it may not trigger - but if it does you take the trade.
Some do not trigger and instead will set a new pullback point and so then after it begins to retrace (so the pullback point has been 'set' by that retracement) it is evaluated once more and a new signal is thereby generated.
I believe the thing that gets some people off track is that they think (as evidenced by the request for a one-size-fits-all indicator) that the market is a simple structure or possibly a random bunch of patterns which unpredictably repeat enough to do some operations with TA which will yield predictable results.
Those which think it is a simple structure are half right - it is a structure. Those which think randomly repeating patterns are able to be operated on with TA yielding predictable results are half right - they can use TA on the repeating patterns.
There is a primary and universal obstacle to getting the complete understanding of what the market truly is. That obstacle is the practice of boxing up tick data into arbitrary size containers in order to apply some TA technique or indicator. This destroys the numerical precision of the underlying data. The different way we use these same charts undoes that problem.
The underlying data is not random and the closest TA system is Elliott Wave however that has some errors which have a profound impact on the true count. Also it is far more tedious, done right, than my method. I mean FAR more!
We just find a setup with most of the traits, log it, add the remaining ones to it as they develop, and then take a reading.
In the chat someone who is inexperienced as yet will ask about a setup. They will tell us the pair, the beginning point which we label the Main Pivot and the timeframe on which they are observing this. In less than 1 minute the answers come back from other members filling in the status. Some may make an error and it gets spotted that quickly as well and these are just traders who learned to apply the technique. They are correct and precise about their assessments. This could not be happening if this was subjective.
For example from a little while ago on the chat from one of the members:
10:53 Bogie: CAD/JPY M5 > 3/12/2009 9:45:00 w/p/b
That means the M5 chart using tool #1 from the Low Main Pivot 3/12 @ 9:45GMT+1 has a basis for a pullback evaluation once the pullback reaches the set criteria for a challenge sufficient that it will be evaluated as a possible reversal - an ACTUAL reversal - or a continuation.
It took me longer to type that than it does for me to go and look at it myself. We know the exact tool and the exact status from his post.
Now does this sound boring to you? I didn't think so - it's juicy - I can see you swallowing a bit of saliva now!
This is from the chat from a little earlier this morning:
08:32 Joel C.: now that you have this system, other systems that I thought were awesome seem useless
08:33 Gert: yes u right hehe
08:33 Gert: i am so glad i did find this system out of thousands of others
08:33 Joel C.: I gave up a great system that consistently provided me 400 pips for this system
08:33 Joel C.: 400 pips monthly on average
08:34 Gert: it is exactly what i like it tells u where to place your stop and where to enter
08:34 Joel C.: yeah
08:34 Gert: and if the setup is not good dont trade
08:34 Gert: and it teaches u to be patient
For both of these traders the understanding came a little bit hard, but is there anything worthwhile that you have come to which came easily?
Both are very methodical thinkers and that is better in the long run but sometimes for that type of thinker it comes the hardest. This is because it is a completely unique system and not arbitrary so just calling up any timeframe with your favorite indicator is not how it is done. That yields the 95% failure combined with other errors like misunderstanding the size and formations of your market.
The same one who asked why don't I make an indicator and said it is complex also said this to me in their email about 3 hours after they set it up:
"I would really like to use your system as we have always lost a lot of potential profits based on exiting too early or not finding the optimal entry point. Do you have a tutorial that would make it a bit easier for us to follow? We really like the 30 minute chart and we really like the AUD pairs as there is a lot of volatility in them."
Then they went on and posted their review and I asked them to follow the notes to register on the forum.
This shows the approach to the market and sometimes to my system. Let's take our methods which we are having difficulty applying to the market and tack something else on which will hopefully improve it. That is NOT illogical. But it just will not improve and that is due to the fact that for over 1000 years we've been using arbitrary containers for the data and it just ruins the observation of what really is going on.
We do not push ANYTHING on the market. We let the market give us the readings. The system tools extract these - let's just say - "Fibonaccily" from the data.
I used to have a banner ad which said "My System is Perfect - but I am NOT". Well I don't use that in ads anymore (I still display it on one of my own pages). But the reason is that now I say it is
100% Accurate.
That change is due to the realization of the simple fact that my system is NOT perfect. If it were perfect then it would have a one size fits all indicator and spit out money like an ATM with no effort - EVERY DAY. And more importantly it would be easy, understood by anyone of any language within seconds after opening the box.
But you do not get that claim from me anymore and you will need to apply a new technique.
Now you also ask about other instruments. I have not developed this yet for stocks - they are not a leveraged instrument and so the settings used for this will not work for them. It will work for ALL leveraged instruments in exactly the same way and the tools have already been translated by customers to other platforms - it was developed on another platform. None of that is needed to be learned but leveraged and non-leveraged instruments operate on a different frequency (leveraged have the oscilloscope knob way over to the right - hence the speed and volatility). Yes, E-minis, Yes, Oil, Corn, whatever commodity.
And you asked for yes or no answers but as you can see I am incapable of that and that is my imperfection and maybe why the system is not perfect.
I want people to know why it is different. I look forward to working with you on this, ------.
ATB
Tom
Cheers,
Cyclon