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Want to see how much you might make or lose with a tested product? Try this new toy.

Discussion in 'Performance Testing of EAs, Signals, Managed Forex' started by AsstModerator, Nov 18, 2010.

  1. AsstModerator

    AsstModerator FPA Forums and Reviews Admin

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    Just to make life easier for those who want to calculate hypothetical gains and losses from EAs, signals services, and managed accounts services that are tested at the FPA, I've got something new for you.

    The programmers have written a simulator. It takes the current average weekly return of all tested products. You can then select your initial deposit and how long to run the product. The simulator will then tell you how much equity you will have, assuming the product continues to perform the same way the whole time.

    As always, past results never guarantee future results. Even if a product works well for a year doesn't mean it can't lose tomorrow. A product with a year of continuous profitability probably is more likely to continue making that a product with only 1 week of profitable results, but that is not a guarantee. I have seen products that did well for 6 months or a year lose all the money in a short time. If you run the product side by side with FPA forward tests, your results will vary based on broker selection, demo vs. live accounts, internet connection speed, and other factors.

    The simulator only shows what would happen if you run the product under identical conditions and the product performance doesn't change. It shows hypothetical future profits and losses. Simulator results can be thrown off if there are multiple deposits or withdrawals from the test account.

    That's enough disclaimer for now, so I'll tell you how to find it.

    On the Test Labs Page, look to the right and you'll see a lot of options for each test. Select Simulator and you'll get the simulator for that test.

    There's also a way to load it from each Performance Test Page. Just to the upper-right of the test statement, click the Simulator radio button.

    Either way, when you are done with the simulator, you can close it and view the statement.

    You can view the Tokyo Express simulator results here. I chose this one because it's making profit in a demo after a year of testing. The profit is only 0.77% per week. That seems small until you see that it comes to about 50% per year.

    The simulator defaults to the amount of the initial deposit in the test account. This EA test started with $100,000 of demo money, so the simulator starts with $100,000. I don't have $100,000 to risk, so I'm going to use the slide to set my simulator to $10,000. The simulator now shows that if I trade for 180 days and everything else keeps doing what it's been doing, the hypothetical account equity would be $12,180. I just made a hypothetical profit of $2180. If I extend this to 1 year, the hypothetical profit goes to $4918.

    This Tokyo Express test is on a demo account. Let's look at a live account test.

    Click here to see the Adroit EA simulated results. These are based on a test that's been running in a live account for 9.9 weeks as a write this.

    Setting up my same $10,000 hypothetical investment and letting it run for 180 days, I could hope for $21,980 in my account. If I let i run for a year, I could hypothetically have $49,379. Can it really do this? I'm not sure. It's only been tested for about 10 weeks, so I want to see more information.

    The simulator can also show simulated loss of equity. Click here to see Forex Live Calls simulated results based on a real account that lost real money.

    This one takes my hypothetical $10,000 and leaves me with only $2167 after a year. It could be worse than that. Close the simulator popup and check the equity graph on the test statement. This live test was making a profit and then suddenly lost all the profit and much of the initial investment very quickly.


    Please play with the simulator and post any comments in this thread. It's a new toy, so it may have some bugs.
     
  2. Pharaoh

    Pharaoh Colonel

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    Intriguing. Just remember not to plan your life around hypothetical money. :D
     
  3. FXDM

    FXDM Banned

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    Wait...!...!...!...

    Is EA can makes money? :rolleyes:

    If "YES" Why a BIG bank(s) don't have EA? :confused:

    ;)...
     
  4. Player

    Player Private

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    They don't need to! BIG BANKS have millions of customers able to be fleeced every day for guaranteed profit. Why would they want the inconvenience of occasionally reprogramming an EA? With customers they can change the rules at a whim......! Ain't that the truth?
     
  5. Pharaoh

    Pharaoh Colonel

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    Big banks may or may not use automatic trading software. Big banks do have their own signals providers and account managers. Big banks are bright enough to instantly quit using any of these that exceed predetermined drawdown limits.

    Some EAs can make money for at least a little while. The question remains, can an EA be designed to be adaptable enough (or can the settings or software be upgraded quickly enough) for it to sustain profit in live accounts for the long haul? I'm hoping that the FPA begins moving more EAs that show good potential over to live accounts.

    Hmmmnnn. . . If I get a hypothetical mortgage, can I pay for it with hypothetical money?
     
  6. FXDM

    FXDM Banned

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    This is the challenge for FPA.;)

    If EA can trade profit, there is no bank bankruptcy:)
     
  7. digital_soul

    digital_soul Private, 1st Class

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    ahahaahahhahaahhahah

    thanks FPA, really.

    But, omg, what a useless tool.

    No#1 problem that ALL EA's (and many signal providers) face is .... consistency.

    Nothing I have ever seen or will ever see will give a consistent amount of income. Even if you have years of data you'll find that over time markets change and EAs and even some signal providers can't keep up.
     

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