Weekly FX forecast from NordFX

[Julia NordFX]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 26-30 January 2015 ​

Generalizing in a table the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be expected:
- before returning to its main trend and continuing towards 1.1100, EUR/USD may go up to the level of 1.1380-1.1460;
- GBP/USD, also under bearish pressure overall, may at first rise to 1.5065 and then continue its fall to 1.4900;
- USD/JPY is expected to mirror the movements of its counterparts – after a fall it will rebound from 113.50 and rush up to its nearest target of 119.00;
- after surviving the recent shock, USD/CHF can be expected to continue its sideways trend with a rise to 0.8910-0.9000 and then a decrease to 0.8350.

As for the last week’s forecast:
- ECB President Mario Draghi met our expectations and helped our forecast for EUR/USD to fulfil to the tee. After his speech, the Euro swiftly broke through 1.1400 and, as was predicted, finished the week near 1.1200;
- following the Euro, GBP/USD succumbed to Mr. Draghi’s charms which resulted in the level of 1.5020, predicted to be the lower boundary, reversing direction and becoming the upper boundary of the corridor;
- the forecast for USD/JPY was confirmed 100% – the pair was in a sideways trend, then reached the predicted mark of 118.75 and returned to 117.70, the level of the beginning of the week;
- it turns out that no prediction can also be a prediction, which was backed up by the USD/CHF pair. Along with the analysts, we refused to make any suggestions regarding its fluctuations last week. Apparently, in sync with our doubts, the pair decided not to leave the rigid boundaries of its sideways trend throughout the whole week.

Roman Butko, NordFX

 

[Julia NordFX]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 2-6 February 2015

Generalizing in a table the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be expected:
- EUR/USD will continue its downward tendency to the 1.1100 mark, although the opinions of analysts were divided almost equally: a third predict growth for the pair, a third – its fall and a third – a sideways trend;
- the situation with GBP/USD is similar while bearish tendencies look more convincing in this case;
- there is no consensus about the USD/JPY pair this week either among analysts or among indicators, something that happens very rarely. Here the choice is between a sideways movement and the pair’s long-time tendency towards the range of 119.00-121.00, which it is very likely to reach after all;
- both analysts and indicators predict USD/CHF to return to the level of last autumn, with strong volatility too, intraday fluctuations reaching 150 and even 200 points.

As for the last week’s forecast:
- we predicted EUR/USD to fall to 1.1100 and possibly go up to 1.1380-1.1460. It did happen, just in the reverse order – first the pair slipped down to the 1.1094 mark, rebounded to 1.1420, then calmed down and entered a sideways trend with the upper boundary of 1.1380;
- as predicted for the start of the week, GBP/USD rebounded upwards and way more than expected. As a result, another attempt by the pair to fall to the low of 1.4900 failed and the pair was thrown off to the level of the beginning of the week – 1.4986;
- as anticipated, the USD/JPY pair tried to reach its nearest target of 119.00 but weakened at the level of 118.66, took a break and entered a sideways trend;
- USD/CHF was set on partially winning back its Black Thursday losses – it rushed upwards and quickly achieved the predicted level of 0.9000, stayed there for three days and then dashed even higher, soaring up by almost 300 points and reaching the 0.9285 mark by Friday.

Roman Butko, NordFX

 

[Julia NordFX]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 16-20 February 2015

Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies plus forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, I’d like to point out that green and black colours prevail in the table this week. This means that all the pairs are expected to be in a sideways trend with an aspiration to move upwards:
- EUR/USD is very likely to carry on with its drive to reach the 1.1550 mark. Nevertheless, there’s a chance that in the first couple of days the pair will go down to 1.1340, bounce off it and then move upwards;
- the GBP/USD pair can be expected to fall to the level of 1.5300-1.5340 and then rebound to 1.5550;
- the USD/JPY pair’s strong support is 118.40. After bouncing off it, the pair may charge up to around 121.00. However, this may not happen immediately but only in the last ten days of February;
- the forecast for USD/CHF remains as before – a further sideways trend with prevailing bullish tendencies, the nearest target being 0.9400. Bear mind though that in the medium term the pair may break through support at the level of 0.9200 and sharply go down to around 0.9000 where it was at the end of January.

Last week’s forecast was confirmed almost 100%:
- it was predicted that EUR/USD would be in a sideways trend with fluctuations around 1.1325, followed by a rise and a move towards 1.1550. The pair did just that – it finished the sideways trend on Friday and shot upwards. However, the level that the pair reached turned out to be a bit more modest – 1.1443;
- a similar scenario was suggested for the GBP/USD pair. The forecast was fully confirmed, and by the end of the week, the pair reached the target at the level of 1.5400;
- the USD/JPY pair also fully complied with our predictions. It got to 120.00 by the middle of the week and rolled down by 200 points;
- no surprises with the USD/CHF pair either – as predicted, it was in a sideways trend all week long, with prevailing bullish tendencies under whose influence the pair regained 100 points.

Roman Butko, NordFX