Hello Mr. Morten!
I was very discouraged today because I missed the bearish move. The fact is that it was not difficult to go short. The price just revisited the 61.8 disrespected target. It was a DRPO lol Sell right in that area on M15, so in theory it should be easy.
The truth is that I cannot dream to go short on a strong up move like that but someone like you can do that. That is because you had a Bearish view all this time.
How could you predict this move? Is it just the development of the Weekly flag? I dont know if I will ever be able to spot something like that. Is it all hopeless?
Anu,
I agree but we did not really even hit "price level" to join downward move.
After we had major thrust up, about 90 pips, and after just hitting 127.2% extension with ONE BAR on the 4hr chart, MOST would suspect (at least I did) upward move would continue, AT LEAST to 161.8 area + WPP and maybe even hitting k-resistance on 4hr.
The fact that there was ONLY ONE BAR UP and hitting 127.2% extension and then we see a 140 pip down move that has even retested the lows AND went below it is very interesting in my opinion.
Maybe Sive will have different opinion but for me, it was hard to join the downward move. It was very fast and unexpected.
At first, I thought it would just be a 3/8 retracement to 1.2840 level of the thrust up but obviously that was not the case.
I do not think it would have been logical to enter short @ 1.2870 area (which was the high) because:
1) ALL intraday charts bullish
2) ONE big thrust up and we hit target of 127.2% extension for hourly AB-CD.
3) Not yet touch WPP, or even minor 5/8 resistance, or even k-resistance on h4 - all these targets were ~25 pips higher
Also, for the DRPO, for me at least,I believe it also would have been hard to enter short based solely on that pattern because first of all, it was on 15 minute chart. Second of all, target of DRPO which was 1.2830 was INSIDE the 38.2 + 61.8 support of the swing up that we had during elections last night. This led me to believe that it could just be a retracement down to 3/8 support or MAYBE even to 5/8 support and then continue to the upside and eventually hitting 161.8% extension of hourly AB-CD, WPP, and k-resistance on 4hr TF.
Hi, Sive.
Thank you for the reply
I watched action of gold and euro that day, and as you said, there is some resemblance,
but it's very difficult to track it, especially for my level of knowledge,
and it's best to leave them separate
I have one fundamental question.
How should we look at the Bank of England decisions and overall GB economic situation ?
Of course, they make decisions for GBP, but GB is member of EU too.
Do their decisions or GB economic condition also have an impact on EUR ?
I understand that Germany and France have the most influence, but I can't put GB in EU picture correctly
Thank you.
Hi Alex,DRPO: what is it, please? (stupid question?) :|
Sive or anyone.
Firstly thanks as ever for the insight, much appreciated.
Whilst I'm clear on retracement, I'd appreciate your thoughts on Fibo expansion/extension as I read conflicting guidance with patterns.
I understand Dinapoli targets as being 61.8, 100, 127.2 (unofficial) and 161.8 percent of an AB leg measured from point C.
If we take most guidance I've read on patterns (ABCD, butterflies etc)the extension or expansion is measured from point A, how do we determine which to use, the charts on here dont always make it clear.
Finally what constitutes a perfect BC retracement - some guidance say 61.8 , others say >23.6 <100, from my observation 50% seems best on Eur/Usd. and how strict should we be on matching time..I know Dinapoli doesn't really factor in time too much
Sive I am looking ahead a little to see what to expect next week. I see that at current levels, unless we see a major reversal up that the weekly is about to cross below the MACDP. What I normally do with my trading plan is close my position on Friday before that happens and then enter short near a Fibo/retest of the MACDP. I have been short since 1.3020. The other thing I noticed is that Daily should be getting close to oversold. I only have the detrended oscillator which does not show price. If we see 1.2699-1.2668 today I will close and then sell again on a retrace to challenge the MACDP on the weekly. My short term (5 days) is at least a test of 1.26
Hi BenOmI can hardly imagine that someone could follow Sive's advices and lose in the Forex market. He is very knowledgeable and extremely conservative.
Although I listen to him religiously every morning, but unfortunately, during the day the greed and stupidity put hand in hand and cause me open trades that are far away from what Sive has told me the same morning. :-((
Is there any person who follows Sive advices point by point?
If there is such a person, I would like to ask him sell me his signal.
I am sure among the thousands of traders who follow Sive, there are many like me.
If you are the one, please let me/us know. This could be a win win situation for everybody.
You could have an additional income beside your trades by sharing your signal. This will also cause you to stick even strickter to Sive's guidances.
Takers anyone? If for any legal reason this is against FPA's guidelines, we can form this community outside of FPA.
Bernard