AceTraderFx Apr 11: Daily Technical Outlook on Major - USD/JPY

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DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 10 Apr 2014 23:51GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Sideways

Daily Indicators
Falling

21 HR EMA
101.59

55 HR EMA
101.88

Trend Hourly Chart
Down

Hourly Indicators
Falling

13 HR RSI
36

14 HR DMI
-ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias

Resistance
102.74 - Tue's Asian morning low
102.16 - Wed's high
101.97 - Y'day's NY morning high

Support
101.33 - Y'day's low
101.21 - Mar 14 low
100.76 - Feb 04 low


. USD/JPY - 101.38... Wed's dovish FOMC minutes had kept dlr under pressure on Thur n price retreated fm 102.14 at Asian open to 101.42 in European morning. Later, dlr recovered to 101.97 after solid U.S. jobless claims but only to fall to a fresh 3-wk low at 101.33 on risk aversion due to selloff in U.S. equities.

. As mentioned in previous update, dlr's decline fm last Fri's high at 104.13 (post-NFP peak) to as low as 101.55 on Tue n then 101.33 y'day signals 'choppy' trading below 2013 Dec's 5-year peak at 105.45 wud continue n as daily oscillators are falling, suggesting price is en route twd key sup at 100.76 (reaction low in Feb) where a break there wud indicate LT uptrend fm 2011 record bottom at 75.32 is still being retraced n further weakness to 99.60 wud be seen later this month, being a 'natural' 50% r of the intermediate MT rise fm 93.75-105.45. On the upside, only a daily close abv 103.00 wud suggest price remains confined inside recent 100.76-104.13 broad range n yields gain to 103.45/55.

. Today, as price is still trading below the 21-hr n 55-hr emas, selling dlr on recovery for further weakness to 101.00 is favoured n only a daily close abv 102.16 (Wed's high) wud indicate a temporary low is made, risk 102.50/60.

 

[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Apr 16: Daily Technical Outlook on Major – USD/JPY

DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 15 Apr 2014 23:46GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Sideways

Daily Indicators
Falling

21 HR EMA
101.80

55 HR EMA
101.77

Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways

Hourly Indicators
Rising

13 HR RSI
53

14 HR DMI
+ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation with mild upside bias

Resistance
102.39 - 38.2% r of 104.13-101.32
102.16 - Last Wed's high
102.02 - Mon's high

Support
101.32 - Last Fri's low
101.21 - Mar 14 low
100.76 - Feb 04 low


. USD/JPY - 101.88...Dlr ended little changed on Tue after a mini 'roller-coaster' session. Despite rising 1 tick abv Asian high of 101.99 to 102.00 in NY morning after release of higher-than-expected U.S. inflation data, disappointing U.S. housing report knocked price down to 101.50 b4 rebounding in NY afternoon.

. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, y'day's rebound after holding abv
last Fri's low at 101.32 suggests early fall fm 104.13 (Apr 4) has indeed formed a temporary bottom there n as hourly indicators are currently rising, suggesting choppy trading with mild upside bias still remains, abv 102.02 (Mon's high) wud add credence to this view n gain to 102.16, then 102.39, last Wed's high n the 'minimum' 38.2% r of 104.13-101.32 respectively, wud follow, however, as afore-said decline fm 104.13 signals correction fm 100.76 (Feb) has ended there, broad outlook on the dlr remains bearish n reckon 102.73/74 ('natural' 50% r) shud cap upside n bring another fall later.

. Today, trading dlr fm long side (we have entered a long position at
101.55 y'day) is favoured but profit must be taken on next upmove twd 102.39. Only a below 101.32 extends decline fm 104.13 to 101.21 n later 100.76 (Feb).