AceTraderFx Apr 28, 2014: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD

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AceTraderFx Aug 27: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

27 Aug 2014 08:43GMT

GBP/USD - ..... Despite a marginal breach of yesterday's low at 1.6539 to 1.6537 at Asian open, lack of follow-through selling triggered short-covering and the British pound rose to 1.6575 in early European morning. However, renewed selling emerged there and pressured the pair lower to 1.6554. Further choppy trading is likely to be seen ahead of NY open due partly to the absence of eco. data releases from UK.

Offers have now been raised to 1.6590/00 and more above at 1.6610/15 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 1.6520/30.

This morning trading cable was tricky on Tue as despite an initial rebound from 1.6566 to 1.6595 in Asia, renewed broad-based strength in greenback capped intra-day gain and the pound later fell in tandem with euro to 1.6540 near NY close.
Price briefly weakened to 1.6537 shortly after Asian open on renewed decline in eur/usd, however, bids above Monday's fresh 4-1/2 month low at 1.6535 lifted price.

Bids are noted at 1.6540-35 with stop below 1.6530 but demand fm real money accounts are touted near 1.6500/05. On the upside, offers are located at 1.6560/70 and more at 1.6590/00 with stop reported abv 1.6620, therefore, selling cable on intra-day recovery is the way to go. No U.K. data are due out today, so the pound shud track intra-day move in eur/usd.

 

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AceTraderFx Aug 29: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views GBP/USD

29 Aug 2014
GBP/USD - .... 2 pieces of news to suggest selling eur/gbp cross is the way to go after yesterday's downbeat EZ economic sentiment. Earlier on Fri, data from research firm GfK showed consumer confidence edged up in the U.K. in Aug, driven by the fast improvement of the economy during the last year.

GfK's consumer confidence index increased to +1 in August from -2 in previous month. GfK said the improvement in consumer confidence largely reflects a reassessment of the recent past by households, although people are also increasingly optimistic about the future. However, Nick Moon, MD of social research at GfK said 'There is no guarantee how long this stable position will last - a rush of good or bad economic news could set off a marked rise or fall - but things could stay like this for a while,.'

The survey also registered an increase in the consumers' will to both save and make major purchases, such as furniture or electrical goods. These results are consistent with the recent CBI Distributive Trades Survey, which showed a great majority of businesses reporting higher sales volumes, with furniture retailers ranking on top.

Reuters reported, 'Of the 142 firms surveyed in the CBI's distributive trades survey, a balance of +25% of retailers expected their overall business situation to improve over the next three months, which was the highest since May 2002.' 'The CBI added that 51% said sales in August were up on a year ago, while 14% said they were down. That gave a balance of +37%, up on July's +21% n matching Feb's 21-month high.'

Cable swung wildly in volatile session on Thursday. Although the pound rose in tandem with euro n briefly climbed above Wednesday's high at 1.6606 to 1.6615 in Europe, renewed tensions in Ukraine triggered broad-based buying in dlr and cable briefly fell to 1.6567. Later, price rebounded to 1.6599 on cross-buying of sterling vs eur & yen and then chopped inside 1.6567-1.6599 in NY session.

The failure to close above 1.6600 level after a second day testing Thursday suggests consolidation with downside bias remains and selling cable on recovery for marginal weakness below Mon's 4-1/2 is is recommended. Offers from various accounts are noted up from 1.6590 to 1.6610 and more at 1.6630-40 with stops emerging above 1.6650. On the downside, bids are placed at 1.6550-40 and then 1.6525/20 with demand from real money accounts located around 1.6500.

On the data front, U.K. will release the nationwide house prices in August at 06:00GMT. Market forecasts the reading to be unchanged at 0.1% in monthly basis but slightly lower to 10.1% from a year earlier.

 

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AceTraderFx Sept 18: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

18 Sep 2014
GBP/USD - .... Cable jumps ahead of European open.
Despite trading sideways in Asia following Wed's sharp retreat from a fresh 1-week high of 1.6358 to 1.6247 (AUS), traders noted a wave of broad-based buying by European early birds near 1.6260/65, price rallied to intra-day high of 1.6325.

As cable's intra-day up move was not news-driven and Scottish polling station are to open at 06:00GMT for voters to cast their votes (until 21:00GMT), choppy range trading is likely to continue.
Some offers are tipped at 1.6325/35 and more above with stops touted above 1.6360. Some bids are noted at 1.6270-60 and more below with stops below 1.6240.

Earlier comments by Treasury Secretary Jack Lew who said the United States will closely follow the Scottish independence vote on Thursday because it has potentially big economic consequences.
Lew told students on Wed "we think a strong, united UK is important as the UK has been one of our best and most reliable partners for a very long time."
He added "it's an internal debate within the UK right now but obviously there are potentially significant economic ramifications." He said "we're all watching with great interest what happens tomorrow."

 

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AceTraderFx Sept 30: Intra-Day News & Views GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

30 Sep 2014

GBP/USD - ...... U.K. Sept Nationwide house prices +9.4% y/y n -0.2% m/m. U.K.'s Nationwide says 'Q3 London house prices +21% y/y vs Q2 25.8%, 31% above 2007; U.K. house prices may soften in Q4, but outlook uncertain.''

Cable shrugged off the release of weaker-than-expected house price data and climbed above Asian high of 1.6268 to 1.6271 shortly after European open.
Fresh bids are noted at 1.6240-30 and more at 1.6220/15, then 1.6210 with mixture of bids and stops emerging below 1.6200.
On the upside, offers are placed at 1.6275/80 and 1.6290/95 with stops placed just above 1.6300.

Earlier cable swung wildly on Monday as despite a brief fall to 1.6210 in tandem with euro at NZ open, price ratcheted higher in Asia and Europe on broad-based weakness in greenback.
Later, the British pound climbed to a session high of 1.6275 in NY morning before retreating to 1.6245 and then 1.6225 shortly after Asian open on Tuesday.

Range trading above yesterday's low at 1.6210 is expected until European open as investors are reluctant to add bets ahead of the release of U.K. current account and the confirmation of Q2 GDP reading at 08:30GMT.
Bids are noted at 1.6220/15 n then 1.6210 with mixture of bids and stops located around 1.6200. On the upside, offers are placed at 1.6250-60 and then 1.6275/80 with stops placed just above 1.6300.

Market expects the U.K. Q2 final continues to post strong readings with a growth of 0.8% Q/Q and 3.2% Y/Y.
Meanwhile, economists estimate U.K. Q2 current account deficit to narrow to 17.00 bln pounds from 18.5 bln pounds in Q1 (in the other way to show increasing demand for pounds from foreigners).

 

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AceTraderFx Oct 2: Intra-Day News & Views (GBP/USD) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

02 Oct 2014

GBP/USD - ...... Cable swung wildly in Wednesday's session as despite falling to a fresh 2-week low of 1.6161 after release of downbeat U.K. mfg PMI in European morning, short-covering together with broad-based selling in greenback after downbeat U.S. data lifted price to 1.6252 in NY before retreating to 1.6173 on renewed cross-selling in sterling.
Later, price edged higher after NY closing and recovered to 1.6199 in Aust. and 1.6206 in Asian morning.

The overnight rebound after holding above yesterday's low of 1.6161 suggests range trading is likely until European open, however, investors should pay attention to the release of U.K. Markit construction PMI at 08:30GMT.
In addition, investors should also closely watch the intra-day move of eur/gbp cross as yesterday's recovery after failing to penetrate Tuesday's 2-year low at 0.8766 may triggered broad-based short covering and pressure price here later in the day.

Bids are noted at 1.6185/80 and around 1.6170 with mixture of bids and stops at 1.6150/45 and further out at 1.6130.
On the upside, offers are placed at 1.6220-30 and then 1.6240/45 with stops emerging just above 1.6260.

Data to be released on Thursday:

China market holiday, Australia new home sales, exports, imports, trade balance, UK construction PMI, EU producer prices, ECB rate decision, U.S. jobless claims, ISM New-York index, durable goods and factory orders.

 

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AceTraderFx Oct 6: Intra-Day News & Views(GBP/USD) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

06 Oct 2014 01:01GMT

GBP/USD - ..... Cable came under renewed selling pressure at NZ open today on bearish comments by U.K. Business Secretary Vince Cable.

Bloomberg reported Vince Cable said U.K.'s economic growth is being hampered by stalled exports, partly as a result of the high value of sterling.

"Arguably, the pound is overvalued by 10 to 15% on a trade-weighted basis," Cable told a side meeting yesterday at his Liberal Democrat party's annual conference in Glasgow, Scotland. "This feeds back into monetary policy. It is a significant problem that we can't directly address."

His comments echo those of BoE Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent, who said in an interview in July that it's "quite possible" the pound is 10% overvalued n its strength may have a long-lasting impact on inflation. The IMF said the same month in its External Stability Report that the pound was overvalued by 10% to 15%.

Sterling is nursing loss in subdued Asian trading after opening lower in NZ on w/end bearish comments by U.K. Bus. Secretary Vince Cable. Short-term specs sold cable at Mon open on stop hunting, price briefly fell below Fri's 1.5953 low to a near 1-year trough of 1.5943 (Reuters), however, lack of follow-through selling later lifted the pound at Asian open.

Although range trading is in store in quiet Asian morning, Fri's sell off below Sept's 1.6052 low suggests signals recent decline has once again, so selling cable on recovery is the way to go. Order board is pretty empty, some offers are noted at 1.5980/890 n more abv with stops touted abv 1.6050. Some bids are noted at 1.5945-35. The only data due out at London open is Halifax house price at 07:00GMT.

Data to be released next week:

China market holiday, Germany industrial orders, UK Halifax house prices, EU sentix index and Canada Ivey PMI on Monday.

New Zealand business confidence, Japan BoJ rate decision, leading indicators, Australia RBA rate decision, Germany industrial output, Swiss CPI, retail sales, UK industrial output, manufacturing output, Canada building permits and U.S. redbook retail sales on Tuesday.

UK BRC shop price index, Japan current account, China HSBC services PMI, Swiss unemployment, Canada housing starts and U.S. FOMC minutes on Wednesday.

Japan machinery orders, Australia employment, unemployment, consumer confidence, Germany imports, exports, trade balance, France imports, exports, trade balance, UK BoE rate decision, U.S. jobless claims, wholesale sales, wholesale inventories and Canada new housing price index on Thursday.

Japan BoJ minutes, consumer confidence, France industrial output, Italy industrial output, UK trade balance, Canada employment, unemployment, U.S. export price index and import price index on Friday.

 

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AceTraderFx Oct 14: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

14 Oct 2014 08:30GMT

GBP/USD - ...... Cable falls to session low of 1.5979 immediately after release of U.K. inflation data. September annual CPI came in at 1.2% vs street forecast of 1.4% whilst month/month CPI came in at 0% vs forecast of 0.2%.

Sterling was already down vs euro & yen in European morning and the lower-than-expected inflation has deferred market speculation of a hike in the U.K. base rate by the BoE anytime soon in 2015.
Looks like sterling would remain under pressure in Europe n last Monday's 11-trough at 1.5943 is now in focus.
Offers are noted at 1.6000/10 and more above, some bids are reported at 1.5960/50 with stops building below 1.5940.
Therefore, selling cable is the way to go today !!

 

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AceTraderFx Oct 24: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

24 Oct 2014 05:00GMT

GBP/USD - ...... Cable fell yesterday to a near 1-week low after U.K. retail sales showed continued slowdown consumer spending & industrial orders, damping expectation on timing of the BoE's rate hike in 2015.

Britain's brisk economic recovery is showing more signs of cooling after shoppers bought less, exporters took a hit fm Europe's slump and banks approved the fewest mortgages in more than a year.
Data released on Thursday underscored why the BoE is signalling that it is in no rush to raise interest rates, even as U.K.'s economic growth continues to outpace that of most other industrialised nations.

Earlier, BoE deputy governor Ben Broadbent had said that any future rise in interest rates was likely to be gradual, and that underlying interest rates - which dictate investment returns n BoE policy - would stay low for some time.
In a third set of figures, factory export orders in the 3 months to Oct fell to their lowest level since the start of last year as Europe's slowdown took its toll on British manufacturers.

Today's prelim. Q3 GDP data are expected to show growth cooled in the 3 months to Sep to a quarterly 0.7% fm 0.9% in the Apr-Jun period. A further slowdown is possible in the final 3 months of the year.
The recovery in Britain's economy has pushed the unemployment rate down to 6%. But pay is still lagging behind inflation, a reflection in part of how many people have found work in low-paying industries.

A survey published on Thursday showed the biggest fall in 4 years in one measure of consumer confidence as many of those workers feared they could lose their jobs as the economy cools off.

This morning, although cable recovered in tandem with euro in Euroepan trading on Thursday and rose to 1.6052 in NY morning after early intra-day sell off to 1.5995 after downbeat U.K. retail sales reports, price retreated to 1.6021 near NY close and then moved narrowly in Asia.
Looks like range trading above yesterday's low at 1.5995 would continue in Asia as traders are keeping their powder dry ahead of the release of important U.K. preliminary estimate for Q3 GDP at 08:30GMT.
According to consensus forecast, UK GDP growth in third quarter is expected to have slowed down to an annual rate of 0.7% fm 0.9% in previous quarter due to the significant deceleration in the euro zone, which had been driven down by the geopolitical crisis in Ukraine.
Therefore, despite Thur's rebound fm 1.5995, selling cable on recovery is still the favorable strategy.

 

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AceTraderFx Nov 3: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

03 Nov 2014

GBP/USD - ..... Despite cable's fall to a fresh 2-week low at 1.5926 in Asia, price recovered in tandem with euro and then climbed back to 1.5983 in European morning.

Offers are touted at 1.6000-10 and around 1.6030 with mixture of offers and stops emerging just above Friday's high of 1.6038.
On the downside, bids are placed at 1.5940-30 and then 1.5915/10 with demand from real money accounts is placed around 1.5900.
Investors are now awaiting the release of U.K. Markit/CIPS mfg PMI.


This morning Cable fell in tandem with euro shortly after Asian open as dlr continued to strengthen against other ccys after Friday's BoJ's surprise easing. The pound briefly tanked below Fri's 2-week low of 1.5942 to 1.5928 b4 short-covering lifted price to 1.5971 n then 1.5975.

The intra-day rebound fm 1.5928 suggests a temporary low has been made n therefore, buying cable on dips for st trade was recommended, however, position traders can looked to sell cable on intra-day rise as dlr's recent broad-based firmness led by usd/jpy suggests a test of Oct's 11-month trough at 1.5875 wud be seen later this week. Offers was noted at 1.6000-10 n then 1.6025/30 with mixture of offers n stops emerging just abv Fri's high of 1.6038.
On the downside, demand from real money accounts was placed around 1.5900 with buying interest from various accounts located further out at 1.5850-40.

On the data front, investors shud pay attention to the U.K. Markit/CIPS mfg PMI at 09:30GMT. The PMI has been losing ground in the 2nd half of 2014, n slipped to 51.6 points last month. Market forecasts the reading to weaken further to 51.2 in Oct.

 

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AceTraderFx Nov 5: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

05 Nov 2014

GBP/USD -...... Cable moved in a choppy fashion below Monday's high of 1.6027 on Tuesday. Although price found renewed buying at 1.5965 at Asian open n ratcheted higher in Europe, selling interest at 1.6015/20 checked intra-day gain at 1.6016 at NY open and cable later tanked to 1.5982 in NY afternoon due to cross-selling vs euro before staging another bounce to 1.6012 in Asia on Wednesday.

Although the early release of weak U.K. shop price index suggests range trading with mild downside bias wud be seen in Asia n selling cable on recovery is recommended, as investors are awaiting the release of U.K. service PMI in European morning (09:30GMT) for further indication of how the U.K.'s main economic sector is performing when Christmas is approaching, sharp fall is unlikely ahead of European open.
Economists are expecting the reading to soften to 58.5 in Oct compare to 58.7 in September.

At present, offers are noted at 1.6010-20 n then 1.6030/35 with stops emerging above 1.6050, whilst bids are placed at 1.5985/80 and around 1.5965 with stops placed just below 1.5950.

News in early Wednesday, British shops matched a record decline in the price cuts in October and food prices looked at risk of falling into deflation, a survey fm the British Retail Consortium showed on Wednesday.

BRC said October retail prices were 1.9 percent lower than a year ago, matching July's record decline and weaker than a 1.8 percent fall in September.
Prices for food products edged up just 0.1 percent, the smallest rise since the survey began almost eight years ago, compared with a 0.3 percent increase in September.
There was deep and widespread discounting across grocery stores.

Britain's big supermarkets have fought an escalating price war, spurred by discounters like Aldi and Lidl which have taken a growing market share from traditional rival grocers.

Overall, consumer price inflation ran at 1.2 percent in September, well below the Bank of England's 2 percent target.
Wages are growing even more slowly - something the BoE has cited as a reason to keep interest rates on hold.