AceTraderFx Apr 28, 2014: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD

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AceTraderFx Nov 12: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)
12 Nov 2014 08:25GMT

GBP/USD - ....... Cable rebounded in tandem with euro after early retreat to 1.5904/05 in Asia and price rose to 1.5940 in early Europe before easing.
Investors remain on the sideline ahead of the release of a slew of jobs reports from UK and important UK inflation report at 09:30GMT and 10:30GMT respectively.
Stops located just above yesterday's high of 1.5945 are now in focus but more selling interest from various accounts is seen in the region of 1.5970-90.
On the downside, bids are placed at 1.5915/10 and then 1.5900 with stops emerging below 1.5880.

This morning the British pound tracked intra-day movements in the euro closely again on Tuesday.
Despite intra-day's rally from Asian low at 1.5835 to as high as 1.5945 in thin NY afternoon, price retreated to 1.5915 in Australian morning n then 1.5905 after Asian open on renewed broad-based strength in greenback n profit-taking ahead of the release of UK jobs reports and BoE's quarterly inflation report in European morning.

Looks like choppy consolidation below yesterday's high of 1.5945 would be seen in Asia as investors remain cautious ahead of the BoE's inflation report after The Sun Times report earlier the BoE is expected to make a downward revision to its growth forecasts n signal that interest rates will rise later than expected (as mentioned in our yesterday's MMN).
Before the inflation report, UK will release average earnings, jobless claims change n ILO unemployment rate, economists estimate the data will show signs of improvement in the UK's job market.

 

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AceTraderFx Nov 13: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
13 Nov 2014 08:03GMT

GBP/USD - ...... Cable remains under pressure in European morning after yesterday's dovish BoE inflation report and hovers just above Aust.'s fresh 14-month low at 1.5760.

Fresh offers are noted at 1.5775/80 and around 1.5790 with stops emerging above 1.5800, however, more selling interest from various accounts is placed in the region of 1.5820-40.
On the downside, bids from profit-taking are touted at 1.5750-40 and around 1.5720 with buying interest from real accounts located further out at 1.5700.

This morning Cable tumbled on Wednesday after the BoE downgraded U.K. inflation forecasts significantly in its quarterly Inflation Report n dampened market's hopes of rate hike in early 2015.
BoE said in the report that inflation rate in U.K. may fall below 1.0% at sometime within the next 6-months and growth prospects are also somewhat lower to 2.9% in 2015. The British pound fell sharply after the report, dropping fm intra-day high of 1.5940 to 1.5776 in NY afternoon n then further to a fresh 14-month trough at 1.5760 in Australia earlier this morning before stabilising.
Earlier, as cable remained under pressure with no U.K. eco. release are due, selling the pound on recovery is the way to go. buying interest from real accounts located at 1.5700.

 

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AceTraderFx Dec 3: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

03 Dec 2014
GBP/USD - ...... Cable pares intra-day losses in Europe n rebounded briefly after stronger-than-expected U.K. services PMI. November reading came in at 58.6, much higher than market estimate of 56.5, previous month's reading was 56.2.

The pound hit a low of 1.5619 before the data and briefly bounced to 1.5671 after the release, however, price quickly eased back to 1.5650 as offers at 1.5670/80 have capped intra-day rebound, suggesting range trading above 1.5619 would be seen ahead of the delivery of the annual Autumn Statement by FnMin George Osborne at 12:30GMT.

In the meantime, offers are tipped at 1.5670/80 n more above with stops above 1.5700.
Bids are noted at 1.5620-00 area with stops building below last week's fresh 14-month low at 1.5585.

More on the upbeat U.K. services PMI, Britain's services sector expanded faster than expected last month, a survey showed on Wednesday, suggesting the economy may be slowing less than previously thought following a year of robust growth.

The closely watched Markit/CIPS services purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 58.6 in Nov after falling sharply to 56.2 in October, beating all forecasts in a Reuters poll, amid reports of firm demand and increased new business.

The rise in the index was the biggest in over a year, and it has exceeded the 50 level that represents growth for nearly 2 years. A corresponding manufacturing survey on Monday also showed a rebound, though Tuesday's construction PMI was weaker. Markit said that taken together, the surveys suggested Britain's economy will grow by 0.6% in the final 3 months of 2014, up fm a previous estimate of 0.5%.

The data is likely to be welcomed by FinMin George Osborne, who gives a half-yearly update on official growth and borrowing forecasts later on Wed, his penultimate such statement before May's national election. The BoE forecasts Britain's economy will grow by 3.5% this year, faster than any other big advanced economy, before growth slows to 2.9% next year.

 

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wrong thread

 

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AceTraderFx Dec 8: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
08 Dec 2014

GBP/USD - ..... Although the pound continued Friday's descent and dropped marginally below NY low of 1.5568 to a fresh 14-month low of 1.5562 due to renewed weakness in the Brent crude oil (price fell below Friday's $69.07 low to 68.12) in Australia, lack of follow-through selling and intra-day recovery in the usd/usd in Asia prompted minor short covering in cable also.

Price showed muted reaction to release of the BoE 2014 Q4 Quarterly Bulletin earlier (available on ww.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/quarterlybulletin/2014/qb14q4.pdf ).

Looks like the intra-day low print wud stay until European open and as no U.K. economic data are due out today, cable is likely to move in tandem with intra-day swings in eur/usd.
Offers are noted at 1.5600/05 and more at 1.5620/25 with stops above 1.5650.
Some bids are reported at 1.5665-60 with some stops below 1.5550, suggesting selling the pound on intra-day recovery is the way to go.

A piece of weekend's Reuters news report worth noting, the British public have scaled back their expectations that the BoE will raise interest rates over the next 12 months to the lowest in a year, a survey by the central bank showed on Friday.

The change in public expectations mirrors a shift in sentiment among professional economists as the outlook for growth in Britain's main euro zone export market has darkened n inflation looks set to fall further below target. The proportion of Britons expecting rates to increase in the next year sank to 37% in Nov, its lowest since Nov 2013, fm a 3-year high of 49% in Aug.

Economists polled by Reuters last week forecast interest rates would rise fm their record low 0.5% between Jul n Sep next year, n in recent days financial markets have priced a move even later.

In early Nov, BoE Governor Mark Carney did not dispute financial market estimates of a rate rise around Oct, n said consumer price inflation was likely to dip below 1% in the coming months due to a sharp fall in oil prices.

British consumer price inflation in Oct rose to 1.3% after touching a 5-year low of 1.2% in Sep. The longer-running retail price index, which is used to determine price rises in many British contracts, held at 2.3%.

A similar survey by polling company YouGov for U.S. bank Citi showed last week that Britons' inflation expectations for the year to come had fallen to a 5-year low of 1.8% in Nov.The BoE survey, which is conducted by GfK n covers nearly 2,000 people, showed that inflation expectations for 2 years ahead sank to 2.5% fm 2.8%, n that people expected inflation of around 3.0% in 5 years' time.

 

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AceTraderFx Dec 18: Intra-Day News and Views (GBP/USD) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

18 Dec 2014 02:40GMT
GBP/USD - ...... Cable is nursing yesterdays sharp losses in quiet Asian trading on Thursday after o/n sell off below December's 1.5541 low to a fresh 14-1/2 month trough of 1.5530 after Fed Chair Yellen's hawkish remarks at the post-FOMC press conference.
Despite tripping stops in a rather illiquid late NY session, short covering quickly lifted the pound once the sell stops were done.
Price briefly bounced to 1.5603 n then moved narrowly in Australia. Asian traders are happy to stay on the sideline until European open.

Looks like Wednesday's low print would continue to hold until release of key U.K. retail sales data at 09:30GMT. Street forecasts are looking for a weakish Novmeber number with M/M to be 0.3% vs previous reading of +0.8% whilst Y/Y figure is expected to be 4.4% vs previous reading of 4.3%.
If both readings come in weaker than forecast, one can expect another round of pound bashing.
Until then, offers are noted at 1.5600/10 and more above with stops reported above 1.5630.
Initial bids are noted at 1.5505-00 with some stops below there.

Thursday will see the release of New Zealand's GDP, Australia's RBA Bulletin, China's House Prices, Switzerland's Trade, Germany's IFO Business Climates, IFO Current Conditions, IFO Expectations, U.K.'s Retail sales, U.S. Markit Service PMI, Jobless Claims and Philly Fed Business and Leading index change. Japan's BoJ will begin its 2-day meeting.

 

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AceTraderFx Jan 9: Intra-Day News and Views (GBP/USD) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
09 Jan 2015 02:32GMT

GBP/USD - ..... Despite initial retreat from NY high of 1.5118 to 1.5078 in Australia, cable rebounded to 1.5104 on dovish remarks by Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota, its was a surprise dlr fell broadly on his comments since he is not a voting member of the 2015 FOMC and has announced plans to resign by early next year.
As yesterday's short-covering strong rebound from a 17-month bottom made in Europe at 1.5034 signals a temp. low is in place, range trading is expected in Asia.
Offers are tipped at 1.5100/10 with stops touted above 1.5130.
Initial bids are noted at 1.5080-70 and more below with stops reported below 1.5030.


Friday will see the release of Australia retail sales, Japan leading indicator, Swiss unemployment rate, China CPI, PPI, Germany imports, exports, industrial output, trade balance, France exports, imports, industrial output, trade balance, Italy ISTAT Public Deficit/GDP, UK industrial output, manufacturing output, trade balance, NIESR GDP estimate, Canada building permits, unemployment rate, U.S. average earnings, non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, wholesale inventories and wholesale sales.

 

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AceTraderFx Jan 13: Intra-Day News and Views (GBP/USD) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
13 Jan 2015 01:29GMT

GBP/USD - ...... Cable shrugged off early release of weak U.K. retails sales and rebounded in tandem with euro due to intra-day renewed weakness in the greenback in Asia.

Reuters reported U.K. retail spending growth slowed in December after consumers splashed out on November's "Black Friday" bargains and prices continued to fall broadly, industry data showed on Tuesday.

The British Retail Consortium (BRC) said year-on-year retail spending was 1.0% higher this December than a year ago, the weakest December growth since 2008 and a sharp contrast with November's 2.2% jump.

Falling prices also weighed on spending. Shop prices were down by an average of 1.7% in December compared with 2013, the BRC said last week. Broader official data due for release at 09:30GMT is forecast to show consumer price inflation at a 12-year low of 0.7%.

Taking lower prices into account, retail sales volumes rose an annual 2.6%, the same as in Dec 2013. Retail spending on the BRC's like-for-like measure -- which excludes new stores n more closely reflects how stores report sales to shareholders -- were 0.4% down on the year.

Yesterday although the British pound fell from an intra-day high at 1.5195 to session low at 1.5099 in European morning on dlr's broad-based strength, cable pared its losses n rebounded strongly in tandem with euro to 1.5174 in NY morning. However, price met renewed selling there n retreated to 1.5136, weighed down by cross-selling of sterling vs euro.


Tuesday will see the release of Japan's Current Account and Economic Watchers Poll, China's Trade Balance, Exports and Imports, Italy's Industrial Output, U.K.'s BRC Retail sales, CPI, PPI, RPI, U.S. Rebook and Federal Budget on Tuesday.

 

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AceTraderFx Jan 21: Intra-Day News and Views (GBP/USD) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
21 Jan 2015 03:30GMT

GBP/USD - ..... The pound pares yesterday's spectacular rally from Asian 1-week low of 1.5058 to as high as 1.5200 in NY morning. Some touted this move on possible M&A deal whilst some tied this to active buying of sterling vs yen & eur.
However, renewed weakness in eur/usd in NY session later triggered broad-based long liquidation in sterling and cable retreated to 1.5136 in Asia, suggesting choppy trading below said yesterday's high would continue today.

Range trading this morning was expected ahead of release of MPC's Jan minutes n U.K. jobs data at 09:30GMT.
Offers then were tipped at 1.5160/70 and more with stops above 1.5200. Initial bids are noted at 1.5140-30 and more at 1.5110-00.

With U.K. general election looming in May, Blooming reported lose-lose for business as U.K. election defies prediction.

Businesses faced with a general election in the U.K. are finding that the only thing certain about the vote is its unpredictability. 3-1/2 months before the ballot, polls agree that neither PM David Cameron's Conservatives nor the Labour opposition are likely to win a majority. And the odds have already shortened on a rerun having to be held this year.

That makes companies' forward planning increasingly difficult even as the U.K. economy gathers strength, inflation drops n interest rates look like staying at a record low. 16 of 36 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News identified political uncertainty as the biggest threat to Britain?s recovery, making it the second biggest risk after weak demand fm the euro area, which was cited by 18.

Both parties' electoral agendas are also cause for concern. The U.K. Independence Party's growing popularity has forced Cameron to harden his stance on Europe and to pledge a referendum on EU membership by 2017 if he is re-elected, pitting him -- unusually for a Tory leader -- against the majority of British businesses. Meanwhile, Labour leader Ed Miliband's pledges to freeze energy prices and raise taxes have been greeted with unease.

The EY ITEM Club also cited possible shocks from the U.K. election as a risk that "should not be neglected" in its winter forecast, published this week.

Still, with polls consistently putting Labour n the Conservatives neck and neck, questions such as the likelihood of a referendum may not be resolved on May 7. A survey by YouGov Plc carried out on Jan. 18 n Jan. 19 found the Tories n Labour tied at 32 % of the vote -- not enough for either party to get a majority in Parliament. The poll of 1,747 people also put UKIP support at 15 %, with the Liberal Democrats at 8 % n the Greens at 7 %.

Wednesday will see the release of New Zealand's CPI, Australia's Westpac Consumer Confidence, Japan's BoJ rate decision, Monetary Policy Statement, Leading Economic Index, BoE MPC vote outcome, U.K.'s Average Earnings, ILO unemployment rate, Claimant Count Unemployment Change, Canada's Wholesale Trade, BoC's rate decision, U.S. Housing Starts, Redbook and Building Permits.

 

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AceTraderFx Feb 2: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
02 Feb 2015 09:36GMT

GBP/USD - ...... Although the British pound opened slightly higher in NZ adn rose to session high at 1.5100, price pared its gains and continued to retreat throughout Asia.
Price briefly dropped to session low at 1.5030 in European morning, however, renewed buying there after the release of better-than-expected UK manufacturing PMI lifted the pair and cabled rebounded strongly to 1.5088.

UK manufacturing PMI came in at 53.0, higher than forecast of 52.7.

Bids are now seen at 1.5050/60 adn more below at 1.5030/40 with stops building up abv there whilst initial offers are noted at 1.5100/10, suggesting buying on dips is still favored.

This morning Cable opened higher in tandem with eur/usd in NZ and briefly touched intra-day high of 1.5100 (Reuters) after tripping light stops above Friday's 1.5090 high but soon retreated and later eased to 1.5070 in Asia.

Range trading below said Monday's high was expected until European open and as Friday's strong rebound from 1.4989 (NY) suggests further volatile consolidation above Jan's 17-month low at 1.4952 would continue, sideways move was expected.