AceTraderFx Apr 28, 2014: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD

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AceTraderFx Feb 10: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
10 Feb 2015 09:00GMT

GBP/USD - ..... Reuters news reported Britain should hold a referendum on its membership of the EU as soon as possible to reduce the damaging impact of uncertainty, the head of business group British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) said on Tuesday.
PM David Cameron has promised to renegotiate U.K.'s ties with the euro zone ahead of a referendum in 2017 if he is re-elected in May, but has said he would like to hold the membership vote sooner if possible.

The opposition Labour party, which is neck-and-neck with Cameron's Conservatives in many polls ahead of May's national election, only plans to hold a referendum if there is a significant transfer of powers from London to Brussels.
"Our members say that they actually want a referendum. There is obviously a debate around a referendum at the moment ... that is creating uncertainty, so if we are going to have a referendum we ought to do it quickly," John Longworth, Director General of the BCC told BBC radio. Longworth said if Labour was elected it would come under "huge pressure" to hold a referendum n that would create yet more uneasiness.
"We have to come to a conclusion on these things and move on ... Uncertainty is bad for business," he said.

In a speech to the BCC annual conference later, Longworth will say his members support staying in a reformed EU but warn of a situation where all decisions are made by, and for, the euro zone.
"Without true reform, business support for the European project is far fm guaranteed.

Earlier UK FinMin George Osborne says 'danger of a miscalculation leading to very bad outcome between Greece n Eurozone is increasing.'

This morning Cable moves narrowly in quiet Asian trading after finding minor sup at 1.5200 just ahead of NY open Monday. Altough price staged a rebound in tandem with eur/usd, offers at 1.5245 capped intra-day bounce and price later traded inside a 1.5209-42 range for rest of NY session.

Yesterday's weakness in sterling vs eur & yen in NY suggests intra-day downside bias remains for decline from Friday's 1-month high at 1.5353 to resume once present sideways move is over, so selling cable on recovery is favoured.
At 09:30GMT, U.K. will release Dec industrial & manufacturing production.

 

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AceTraderFx Feb 13: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
13 Feb 2015 06:29GMT

GBP/USD - ...... Breaking news, Bank of England's Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe says allegations around HSBC raise serious issues around HSBC's conduct;
-allegations around HSBC are certainly something which could be of relevance to us.
He says impact of oil prices should come out of UK inflation within a year or so - BBC radio.
-UK growth is robust, seeing signs UK has turned corner on productivity;
-euro area in stronger position now to deal with a Greek exit from eurozone, but would be big event;
-at the moment we are not seeing the conditions where we would reduce interest rates, do more QE.

This morning Cable trades steadily in subdued Asian morning after yesterday's spectacular rally from 1.5209 in Europe to session high of 1.5415 (NY) after the BoE upgraded U.K. growth outlook n raised inflation expectation in its quarterly Inflation Report.
Sterling's intra-day rally in hectic European trading triggered a series of buy stops above 1.5300, then 1.5360 and later above 1.5400.

Expect sideways move below Thursday's 5-week high at 1.5415 to continue ahead of European open n with no U.K. data are due out, cable is likely to take cue from intra-day swings in the eur/usd.

 

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AceTraderFx Mar 4: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
04 Mar 2015 07:44GMT

GBP/USD - ..... Cable rebounds right at European open as a wave of broad-based buying in sterling lifted the pound. Although price briefly fell below yesterday's 1.5344 low to 1.5340, buying interest above last week's bottom at 1.5333 quickly pushed price higher.
Traders cited short-covering ahead of release of the very important U.K. February services PMI was the main factor behind the intra-day bounce.
As mentioned in previous update, street forecast is looking for a mildly upbeat reading of 57.5 vs previous fig. at 57.2, a stronger number should trigger further buying spree in the sterling.

For now, bids are noted at 1.5350-40 with fairly large stops below 1.5330 whilst offers are tipped at 1.5380/90 with stops above 1.5400.

Earlier the pound moves narrowly in subdued Asian trading on Wednesday following yesterday's roller-coaster move. Despite staging a recovery to 1.5398 at Euroepan open, traders gave cable a bashing n knocked price to session lows of 1.5344 at NY open but only to bounce back to 1.5393 due to dlr's renewed weakness, however, price pared intra-day gain and fell back to 1.5357 in Australia before stabilising.

Range trading above said yesterday's 1.5344 low is envisaged until the release of the last but most important U.K. February services PMI (the index showed the dominant services sector which accounts for 75% of activity in the UK economy).
Street forecast is looking for 57.5 vs previous reading of 57.2, a stronger-than-expected number wud spark off brad-based short-covering in the pound.

 

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AceTraderFx Mar 5: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
05 Mar 2015 09:04GMT

GBP/USD - ...... Cable finally gains a bit of temporary respite in hectic European trading after weakening to a near 3-week low of 1.5225 ahead of European open.
Although st specs sold cable in Australia and knocked price from 1.5269, price remained under pressure in Asia and easily penetrated yesterday's 1.5250 low, price later fell to 1.5225 after tripping some stops below 1.5225.

Looks like European traders are reluctant to test cable's downside as MPC meets and even though the BoE policy announcement will be a non-event.
In the meantime, range trading above 1.5225 is expected with initial bids noted at 1.5235-25 with some stops (not large) below 1.5220.
Offers are tipped at 1.5265/75 and more above with stops above 1.5300.

British PM David Cameron on Thursday ruled out taking on opposition Labour party leader Ed Miliband in a head-to-head televised debate ahead of the May 7 national election.
While the Conservatives and Labour are neck and neck in the polls, Miliband has the most to gain from a head-to-head debate as his personal ratings are far lower than Cameron's.
A letter from Cameron's office said he would only take part in one debate and that it must include leaders from minor political parties, rejecting broadcasters' proposals to hold several debates, including a one-on-one debate with Miliband.

"There should be one 90 minute debate between seven party leaders," the letter said. It proposed including the anti-European Union party UKIP, Scottish n Welsh nationalists, the Green party and the junior coalition partner Liberal Democrats.

 

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AceTraderFx Mar 25: Intra-Day News and Views (GBP/USD) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
25 Mar 2015 02:07GMT

GBP/USD - ..... Despite extending sell off in o/n NY session to 1.4831 just ahead of Asian open, cable rebounded on short covering, some traders cited a hawkish news report on Reuters as the reason.

It is reported that interest rates in Britain are likely to rise despite inflation falling to zero, BoE Deputy Governor Minouche Shafik told Kent Business in comments reported on Wednesday.

The policymaker said the main reason behind lower inflation was a rapid decrease in oil prices and the negative effect of an appreciating British pound on UK firms' profits.

Shafik told Kent Business that if you take out those temporary external factors, the underlying core inflation is not that low.
She continues to say the central expectation of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee is that the next move will be up, the publication reported.
However, Shafik said the central bank will keep its options open, including a possible rate cut in the future, it said.

Last week, BoE Chief Economist Andy Haldane said the central bank should consider cutting interest rates if inflation threatens to fall further below target than forecast, distancing him from other BoE officials.

Inflation in Britain fell to zero last month, official figures showed on Tuesday, as lower prices for food and computer goods left consumer prices unchanged from a year earlier for the first time on record.
A representative for the BoE could not immediately be reached for comment.

Wednesday will see the release of New Zealand's exports, imports and trade balance, Germany's Ifo business climate, U.S. durable goods and SNB quarterly bulletin.

 

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AceTraderFx Mar 30: Intra-Day News and Views (GBP/USD) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
30 Mar 2015 00:07GMT

GBP/USD - .... Cable briefly rebounded to intra-day high of 1.4901 ahead of Asian open on Monday on news of ruling Conservative party has a 4- point lead ahead of the Labour party.

Reuters reported earlier British PM David Cameron's Conservatives have taken a 4 point lead over the opposition Labour Party on the eve of the start of official campaigning for a May 7 national election, a poll showed late on Sunday.

The poll, by ComRes for ITV News and the Daily Mail newspaper, gave the Conservatives their largest lead in the polling series since September 2010.

It put them on 36%, up 1 point from last week, Labour on 32%, down 3 points, the Liberal Democrats on 9%, UKIP on 12%, n the Greens on 5%.

Underlining how volatile the election is, an earlier poll on Sunday showed Labour Party has taken a 4 point lead over Cameron's Conservatives after the first TV encounter of the campaign.

This week will see the release of New Zealand Westpac consumer survey, German Buba monthly report, U.S. existing home sales and eurozone consumer confidence flash on Monday.

Australian CB leading index, China HSBC manufacturing PMI, German and eurozone Markit manufacturing and services PMI, U.K. CPI, PPI and RPI, U.K. DCLG house price, U.S. core CPI, Redbook, Markit manufacturing PMI and new home sales on Tuesday.

New Zealand trade balance, Swiss UBS consumer indicator, German Ifo business climate, U.S. durable goods and SNB quarterly bulletin on Wednesday.

German GfK consumer sentiment, U.K. retail sales and CBI distributive trades, U.S. jobless claims and Markit services PMI on Thursday.

Japan's household spending, CPI, unemployment rate and retail sales, U.K. Nationwide house price, Germany import price index, U.S. non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, U.S. final GDP and University of Michigan consumer sentiment index on Friday.

 

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AceTraderFx Mar 31: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
31 Mar 2015 02:03GMT

GBP/USD - ..... Cable showed muted reaction to release of upbeat U.K. consumer confidence (Gfk Mar index rose to a 12-year high) in Australia and the pound briefly slipped fm 1.4817 to 1.4787 in tandem with intra-day weakness in the euro in Asian morning.

Despite Monday's strg rebound from a 1-week low of 1.4752 to 1.4843 in volatile NY session, anticipated weakness in the euro is likely to pressure the pound ahead of release of U.K. Q4 GDP & trade data.

Offers are noted at 1.4820/30 with stop above 1.4845, more stops are touted above 1.4870.
Minor bids are noted at 1.4780-60 with stops reported below 1.4750.

 

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AceTraderFx Apr1: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major EUR/USD

Update Time: 01 Apr 2015 01:18 GMT

Euro's sell off from last Thursday's high of 1.1052 to as low as 1.0713 yesterday due to worries over Greece debts signals price would continue to gyrate inside early established broad range of 1.1062-1.0613.

Despite subsequent intra-day rebound, reckon 1.0800/10 would limit upside and yield another decline later.
Below 1.0713 would extend weakness to 1.0695 but near term loss of momentum should keep price above support at 1.0656 today and bring strong rebound later.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0845 would confirm a low is made and bring gain towards 1.0900 instead.

 

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AceTraderFx Apr 8: Intra-Day News and Views (GBP/USD) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
08 Apr 2015 01:48GMT

GBP/USD - ..... Cable showed muted reaction to release of downbeat U.K. data in Australia. Reuters reported Prices in British shops fell last month at the fastest rate since records began more than 8 years ago, pulled down by a sharp decline in food prices, the British Retail Consortium said on Wed.

The BRC said retail prices in March were 2.1% lower than a year earlier, marking the largest decline in shop prices since the series started in December 2006. Prices had fallen 1.7% in Feb.
Food prices declined 0.9%, the steepest drop on record, compared with a 0.4% fall the previous month.

The BRC said this boded well for the economy, with strong consumer confidence n falling prices likely to tempt Britons into spending on the high street. Consumer price inflation fell to zero in Feburary for the first time on record. Economists think it may have fallen below zero in March.

Yesterday although the British pound traded with a firm bias in Asia and gained to session high at 1.4920 at European open, price tumbled in tandem with euro to session low at 1.4830 in European morning. However, price pared its losses n rebounded to 1.4912 in NY morning before retreating again in NY afternoon to 1.4840.

Data to be released on Wednesday:

Japan current account, BoJ rate decision, BoJ policy statement, France exports, imports, trade balance, Swiss CPI, EU retail sales and U.S. FOMC minutes.

 

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AceTraderFx Apr 9: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
09 Apr 2015 08:20GMT

GBP/USD - ...... Cable tumbled in European morning due to active cross-selling in sterling n price easily penetrated Tuesday's low at 1.4803 to 1.4769 after triggering stops which were located below 1.4800.

Although intra-day weakness suggests consolidation with downside bias would be seen in European morning, sharp move from here is not unlikely as short-covering should emerge ahead of BoE monetary policy decision at 11:00GMT (although market expect it will be non-event).

Offers from various accounts are noted at 1.4800-10, 1.4825/30 and then 1.4840-50 with stops emerging above 1.4870, whilst bids are placed at 1.4750-40 and then 1.4730-20 with stops located just below 1.4700.

The British house price growth rebounded in monthly terms during March but slowed further on an annual basis, according to a survey from mortgage lender Halifax on Thursday.
Halifax said house prices rose 0.4% in Mar from Feb, compared with a forecast for a rise of 0.2% in a Reuters poll. Prices had declined by 0.4% in Feb, a sharper fall than first estimated.
Prices in the 3 months to March were 8.1% higher than they were a year earlier, compared with an increase of 8.3% in the 3 months to Feb n below a peak of more than 10% in mid-2014.