AceTraderFx Jun 23: Weekly/Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/JPY

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WEEKLY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

Last Update At 23 Jun 2014 00:04GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Sideways

Daily Indicators
Neutral

21 HR EMA
102.06

55 HR EMA
102.02

Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways

Hourly Indicators
Easing fm o/bot

13 HR RSI
61

14 HR DMI
+ve

Daily Analysis
Choppy trading to continue

Resistance
102.80 - Jun 04 high
102.65 - Mon's high
102.35 - Wed's high

Support
101.61 - Last Fri's low
101.43 - May 29 low
101.19 - 80.9% r of 100.81-102.80


. USD/JPY - 102.12... The greenback spent a lackluster week gyrating inside a fairly narrow range of 101.73-102.35. Price ratcheted higher abv previous sup at 101.61 on Mon n then climbed to 102.35 b4 retreating back to 101.74 (Thur) on cross-buying of yen but dlr's broad-based strength lifted price to 102.20 Fri.

. Looking at the daily picture, although dlr's erratic fall fm Jun's high at 102.80 to 101.61 signals early 3-legged upmove fm May's 3-1/2 month bottom at 100.81 has formed a top there, as long as 101.19/21 holds, consolidation with upside bias remains, however, abv 102.80 is needed to retain bullish prospect of extending aforesaid rise fm 100.81 to next daily chart obj. at 103.02 but as broad outlook on dlr remains 'consolidative' (as evidenced by the horizontal movement in 13-day & 55-day emas), 103.50 (80.9% r of 104.13-100.81) shud cap upside n yield another retreat in Jul. In view of this analysis, buying dlr on dips or selling on upmove is the appropriate trading strategy this week.

. Today, despite Fri's rise fm 101.82 to 102.20 to 102.20 due to renewed cross-selling in yen, as long as 102.35 res holds, subsequent decline to 101.45 is still likely. Abv 102.35 res may risk stronger gain twd 102.80 b4 retreat.

 

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AceTraderFx Jun 26: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/JPY

DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

Last Update At 26 Jun 2014 00:09GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Sideways

Daily Indicators
Neutral

21 HR EMA
101.85

55 HR EMA
101.89

Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways

Hourly Indicators
Turning up

13 HR RSI
45

14 HR DMI
-ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias

Resistance
102.80 - Jun 04 high
102.65 - Jun 09 high
102.35 - Last Wed's high

Support
101.61 - Jun 12 low
101.43 - May 29 low
101.10 - May 19 low


. USD/JPY - 101.82... Dlr remained under pressure in Asia n Europe on Wed n briefly weakened to session low of 101.64 in NY morning as sharply lower final U.S. GDP triggered broad-based selling in greenback. Later, cross-selling in yen lifted the buck n price recovered to 101.87 in NY afternoon.

. Looking at the hourly & daily charts, y'day's break of 101.74 to 101.64 suggests a 'downside break' of early 2-week long broad range of 101.61-102.35 has possibly taken place n re-test of said lower level wud be forthcoming soon, below wud confirm erratic decline fm Jun's top at 102.80 (Jun 04) has resumed n further weakness to daily chart obj. at 101.43 n then 101.10 (May 29 n May 19 low respectively) shud follow. However, as the hourly oscillators' readings wud display prominent 'bullish convergences' on such move, price wud hold abv May's bottom at 100.81 (May 21) n yield rebound later.

. In view of abv analysis, selling the greenback again on recovery is still cautiously favoured but profit shud be taken on subsequent decline. On the up-side, only a daily close above 102.35 would shift risk to the upside for stronger gain to 102.65 but aforesaid res at 102.80 shud continue to hold.

 

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AceTraderFx Jul 14: Weekly Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/JPY

WEEKLY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

Last Update At 13 Jul 2014 23:45GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Sideways

Daily Indicators
Falling

21 HR EMA
101.33

55 HR EMA
101.39

Trend Hourly Chart
Down

Hourly Indicators
Turning up

13 HR RSI
56

14 HR DMI
0

Daily Analysis
Marginal fall b4 recovery

Resistance
102.80 - Jun 4 high
102.27 - Jun 18 high
101.85 - Last Wed's high (NY)

Support
101.07 - Last Thur's low
100.76 - Feb 04 low
100.22 - 2 times extn of 102.27-101.45 fm 101.85


. USD/JPY - 101.37... Despite last week's initial sideways trading, failure to re-test previous Jul's 102.27 high n decline in the Nikkei due to retreat in the Dow & S&P 500 fm their record highs triggered broad-based buying of yen, the pair fell to a 6-week trough of 101.07 on Thur b4 staging as minor recovery.

. Let's look at the bigger picture 1st, although dlr's break of Jun's 101.24
low confirms erratic fall fm Jun's peak at 102.80 has resumed n further weakness is likely after consolidation, as stated in the previous updates, we are still holding on to our broad consolidative outlook that dlr shud continue to trade inside the 6-month long broad range of 105.45-100.76, current bullish convergences on the hourly oscillators shud keep price well abv the key sup area at 100.76/81 n yield a 'much-needed' rebound later this this week. On the upside, a daily close abv 101.85 wud be the 1st signal low has been formed, then further gain twd 102.27 wud follow. A breach of 2014 trough at 100.76 wud extend MT fall fm 105.45 to 100.00, then later twd 99.60 (50% r of 93.75-105.45).

. Today, we're trading dlr on both sides of the market n will sell on intra
-day recovery or buy on next decline twd 100.76.

 

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AceTraderFx Jul 18: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/JPY

DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 18 Jul 2014 00:14GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Sideways

Daily Indicators
Falling

21 HR EMA
101.35

55 HR EMA
101.48

Trend Hourly Chart
Down

Hourly Indicators
Rising fm o/s

13 HR RSI
44

14 HR DMI
-ve

Daily Analysis
Possible resumption of recent fall

Resistance
102.27 - Jun 18 high
101.79 - Wed's high
101.44 - Wed's low

Support
101.07 - Last Thur's low
100.76 - 2014 low (Feb 04)
100.00 - Psychological


. USD/JPY - 101.21... Despite extending early upmove fm last Thur's 6-week low of 101.07 to 101.79 on Wed, dlr came under pressure at Asian open due to broad-based buying of yen. News of downing of a Malaysian aircraft in Ukriane knocked the greenback to 101.17 in NY afternoon, the to 101.09 in Australia.

. On the daily picture, as dlr has fallen again after staging a strg rebound fm last Thur's 6-week low of 101.07 to 101.79 on Wed, subsequent cross-inspired weakness suggests re-test of 101.07 wud be forthcoming soon, a break there wud pressure dlr twd 2014 trough at 100.76 (Feb low), a daily close below there wud signal a 'downside break' of the near 7-month long broad sideways trading has taken place, then further weakness to 100.00 n 99.60 (50% r of 93.75-105.45) wud follow later this month. Failure to penetrate 100.76 n subsequent rise abv 101.79 wud retain previous broad consolidative view, dlr will later ratchet higher twd 102.27 later next week.

. Today, as yen remains firm across the board due to safe-haven demand, selling dlr on intra-day recovery for 100.80 is cautiously favoured n only abv 101.79 aborts bearishness, risks subsequent headway twd 102.00/05.

 

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AceTraderFx Jul 23: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/JPY

DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 23 Jul 2014 02:09GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Sideways

Daily Indicators
Falling

21 HR EMA
101.47

55 HR EMA
101.44

Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways

Hourly Indicators
Turning down

13 HR RSI
54

14 HR DMI
+ve

Daily Analysis
Marginal rise b4 one more fall

Resistance
102.27 - July 03 high
101.79 - Last Wed's high
101.60 - Y'day's high

Support
101.20 - Mon's low
101.07 - Jul 10 low
100.76 - 2014 low (Feb 04)


. USD/JPY - 101.48... Dlr ratcheted higher on Tue as the rise in global stocks boosted risk sentiment. The pair climbed to 101.60 in NY morning after the release of U.S. CPI data n then retreated briefly to 101.34 but buying interest quickly emerged n lifted price to 101.57 b4 trading sideways.

. Looking at the hourly and daily charts, y'day's gain to 101.60 suggests the choppy consolidation abv Jul's 6-trough of 101.07 wud continue n although another rise twd 101.79 res cannot be ruled out, as long as this month's high at 102.27 holds, downside bias remains for recent decline fm Jun's peak at 102.80 to resume for a re-test of previous good sup area at 101.07/09, a break there wud pressure dlr twd 2014 bottom at 100.76 (Feb low) where a daily close below there wud confirm a 'downside break' of the near 7-month long broad sideways trading has finally taken place, then further losses to 100.00 n 99.60 (50% r of 93.75-105.45) wud follow later this month.

. Today, as long as 101.79 holds, selling dlr on recovery in anticipation of one more fall is still favoured n below 101.20 wud yield weakness to 101.07/09, then 100.95/00 but prev. strg sup at 100.76/81 shud hold.

 

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AceTraderFx Aug 4: Weekly Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on JPY/USD

WEEKLY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

Last Update At 03 Aug 2014 23:13GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Sideways

Daily Indicators
Rising

21 HR EMA
102.66

55 HR EMA
102.66

Trend Hourly Chart
Up

Hourly Indicators
Rising fm o/s

13 HR RSI
37

14 HR DMI
-ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation with mild upside bias

Resistance
103.50 - 80.9% r of 104.13-100.81
103.15 - Wed's high
102.84 - 61.8% r of 130.15-102.34

Support
102.34 - Last Fri's low
102.16 - Last Tue's high
101.72 Jul 25 low


. USD/JPY - 102.55... The greenback continued its recent winning streak n climbed to a 3-1/2 month peak of 103.15 on Wed after U.S. GDP surprised to the upside n increased to 4% in Q2 n then eased after mildly dovish FOMC statements. Dlr later fell sharply to 102.34 on Fri after U.S. jobs report missed estimate.

. Looking at the bigger picture, although dlr's rally abv Jun's high at 102.80 to 103.15 last Wed confirms MT 3-legged rise fm 100.81 (May's bottom) has resumed n further headway to measured objective at 103.50/53 is envisaged after consolidation (being 80.9% r of 104.13-100.81 n equality proj. of 100.81-102.80 measured fm 101.07 respectively), however, as price is expected to 'gyrate' inside the well trodden 7-month long range of 100.76-105.45, reckon 104.13 res shud cap upside n yield a much-needed retreat later. Looking ahead, only a move abv 104.13 needed to confirm the correction fm this year's high at 105.45 (Jan 02) has indeed ended at 100.76 n bring re-test of this res lvl in Aug/Sep.

. Today, as 102.34 has contained dlr's weakness, consolidation with upside bias is seen but abv 103.15 needed to extend marginal gain, bearish divergences on hourly indicators wud cap price below 103.50. Below 102.16 risks 101.72/70.

 

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AceTraderFx Aug 7: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/JPY

DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

Last Update At 06 Aug 2014 23:50GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Sideways

Daily Indicators
Turning down

21 HR EMA
102.27

55 HR EMA
102.47

Trend Hourly Chart
Down

Hourly Indicators
Rising fm o/s

13 HR RSI
30

14 HR DMI
-ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 one more fall

Resistance
103.15 - Wed's high
102.93 - Tue's high
102.34 - Last Fri's low

Support
101.78 - Y'day's low
101.32 - Jul 23 low
101.07 - Jul 10 low



. USD/JPY - 102.10 ... The greenback ratcheted lower on Wed n penetrated Tue's low of 102.48 n then last Fri's low at 102.34 in Europe on renewed risk aversion due to rising tensions in Ukraine together with the selloff in European equities. Price later tumbled to 101.78 in New York session b4 recovering.

. Looking at the hourly & daily charts, y'day's sell off below 102.34 (the reaction low after last Fri's U.S. jobs report) to 101.79 confirms the early 3-legged upmove fm May's low at 100.81 has indeed formed a 3-1/2 month peak at 103.15 last Wed n as current price is trading below both 21-hr n 55-hr emas, suggesting choppy consolidation with downside bias remains for a stronger retracement of aforesaid erratic rise n below 101.70/72 (being 61.8% r of 100.81 -103.15 n chart sup respectively) wud bring further weakness to 101.50 (70.7% r) n possibly twds 101.26/32 (80.9% r n chart level), however, key daily chart sup area at 101.07/09 (Jul 10 n Jul 17 lows respectively) wud hold fm here.

. In view of abv analysis, selling dlr on recovery in anticipation of further weakness is favoured, however, profit shud be taken on next fall. On the upside, only a beach of 102.64 (y'day's high) wud confirm low is made, 102.93.

 

[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Aug 12: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/JPY

DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 11 Aug 2014 23:48GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Sideways

Daily Indicators
Turning down

21 HR EMA
102.15

55 HR EMA
102.12

Trend Hourly Chart
Near term up

Hourly Indicators
Rising

13 HR RSI
62

14 HR DMI
+ve

Daily Analysis
Marginal rise b4 retreat

Resistance
102.93 - Last Tue's high
102.46 - Last Thur's high
102.34 - Aug 01 low

Support
101.78 Last Wed's low
101.51 - Last Fri's low
101.32 - Jul 23 low


. USD/JPY - 102.23 ... Despite dlr's gap-up opening to 102.22 in New Zealand on Monday following last Fri's rally fm a 2-week low of 101.51, the pair then traded narrowly below there in Asia n retreated briefly to 102.02 in European morning b4 edging high in New York, price climbed to 102.26 in Australia.

. Looking at the bigger picture, despite the 3-legged rise fm May's 100.81 trough to 103.15 twd end of July, subsequent cross-inspired selloff to 101.51 signals aforesaid upmove has indeed made a top there. As mentioned in previous updates, dlr's MT choppy sideways move inside the established broad 105.45-100.76 range is expected to continue n the decline fm 103.15 adds credence to this view n as long as 102.46 res (last Thur's high) holds, consolidation with initial downside bias wud be seen n below 101.51 wud bring another drop twd 101.26 (being 80.9% r of 100.81-103.15), however, only a firm breach of 100.76/81 sup area wud bring stronger correction of the LT uptrend fm 79.75-105.45 (however, this is not an anticipated scenario).

. Today, in view of abv analysis, selling dlr on intra-day rise in anticipation of a subsequent fall is favoured. Abv 102.46 wud defer n risk 102.93 res.

 

[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Aug 25: Daily Outlook on Major USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK USD/JPY - 104.11

Update Time: 25 Aug 2014 07:58 GMT

The greenback's rise above April's peak at 104.13 last Friday and then to a fresh multi-month peak at 104.19 in New Zealand today signals an upside break of the 7-1/2 month broad sideways move from 105.45 9Jan) has taken place and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain 104.77, however, near term loss of momentum should cap price below said res today and yield minor correction later.

On the downside, only below 103.50 would indicate a temporary top has been formed instead and shift risk to the downside for a retracement to 103.15.

 

[acetraderfx]

AceTraderFx Aug 28: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/JPY

DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 27 Aug 2014 23:56GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Up

Daily Indicators
Overbought

21 HR EMA
103.92

55 HR EMA
103.94

Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways

Hourly Indicators
Neutral

13 HR RSI
46

14 HR DMI
-ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation n4 marginal rise

Resistance
104.88 - 1.618 times ext. of 101.07-103.15 fm 101.51
104.49 - Mon's NZ high (Reuters)
104.17 - Tue's NY high

Support
103.75 - Mon's low
103.50 - Last Fri's low
103.15 - Jul's high (30)


. USD/JPY - 103.90... The greenback remained under pressure y'day after
meeting renewed selling just below Tue's 104.17 high at Tokyo open, price then
ratcheted lower to 103.79 in NY morning n rebounding to 104.00.

. Dlr's sideways move after rising to a 7-month peak of 104.49 Mon suggests
further choppy trading below this res wud continue, however, as long as near
term pivotal sup at 103.50 (last Fri's low) holds, recent erratic upmove fm
this year's low at 100.76 (Feb) shud resume after consolidation n abv 104.17 wud
add credence to this view n yield re-test of aforesaid top, abv wud encourage
for further gain twd 104.88 (1.618 times extension of 101.07-103.15 fm 101.51)
later. Looking ahead, as early breach of Apr's 104.13 high signals an 'upside
break' of the 7-month long broad sideways consolidation fm Jan's 5-year peak at
105.45 has taken place, price is en route to re-test said 2014 high at 105.45,
abv there wud encourage for gain twd the minimum triangle breakout obj. at
107.31 in late Sep. On the downside, below 103.50 risks retrace. to 103.15.

. Today, we're holding a long position in anticipation of marginal gain abv
104.49 but 'bearish divergences' on hourly oscillators wud cap price at 104.88.