ATFX Market Updates 2019

[Kelly Yeung]

Personal opinions today:

Market focus today ADP payroll change in July and the FOMC interest rate decision and policy statement. Then, the Fed chairman held a news conference. First, markets are focusing on U.S. July ADP payrolls change, which will help calculate the official nonfarm payrolls data. In addition, the results of the US job data help judge FOMC interest rate decisions and policy statements. The market is pricing in the FOMC rate could be cut by 25 basis points this time, bringing the benchmark rate down to a range of 2% to 2.25%.

With US President Trump again publicly urging the federal reserve to cut interest rates sharply, gold market speculators are watching for a possible 50 basis point cut in the FOMC rate, which hit a high of $1,433 last night. The FOMC is more likely to keep rates on hold if it decides to cut rates by 25 basis points in line with market expectations. That could give a big boost to the dollar, sending gold prices lower and hurting other major currencies against the dollar. In addition, Fed chairman Powell called a press conference to explain that monetary policy statements and future monetary policy.

[Important financial data and events]

14:00 UK Nationwide house price index for July
14:45 France CPI in July
15:55 German unemployment rate for July
17:00 The Eurozone unemployment rate, CPI for June
17:00 Eurozone GDP for the second quarter
20:15 U.S. ADP payroll change in July
20:30 Canada GDP in May
21:45 US Chicago PMI for July
22:30 EIA crude oil inventories change
The next day 02:00, FOMC interest rate decision
The next day 02:30 Fed chairman holds a press conference

Today suggestion :

EURUSD
1.1165/1.1180 resistance
1.1120/1.1105 support
Markets focused on U.S. ADP payroll in July and the FOMC's decision on interest rates, looking ahead the Eurozone unemployment rate, CPI in July and euro zone second-quarter GDP. If the Eurozone data are in line with expectations, there will be no surprise. The euro is likely to come downward to limit gains as markets focus on U.S. ADP payrolls and FOMC rate decisions in July. Technically, the euro still has an opportunity to test resistance to 1.1165 or 1.1180. Support level refer to 1.1120 and 1.1105. It is worth noting that the Swiss franc is often affected by the trend of the euro.

GBPUSD
1.2205/1.2230 resistance
1.2125/1.2105 support
The new British prime minister says the previous Brexit deal is finish and he will make and negotiate a New Deal with the European Union a deadline of late October. It is widely believed in the market that the disputes and differences between the two sides cannot reach a consensus, and the UK may leave the EU with no agreement in the end. Without good news from the UK government to lift the pound and improve the mood, the pound is heading for 1.20. Currently the first reference support bit is 1.2105, followed by 1.2065. But the FOMC's decision on interest rates and Fed chairman press conference are important to watch. If Fed shows continue to cut interest rates, which would be bearish for the dollar, bullish pound.

AUDUSD
0.6870/0.6855 support
0.6910/0.6935 resistance
China official manufacturing PMI beat expectations and Australia consumer price index rose in the second quarter as trade talks between the United States and China got a good way. Watching U.S. ADP payrolls and Fed interest rates for July is expected to bullish the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollars after U.S. job data and Fed interest rates, combined with progress in the U.S. - China trade talks.

USDJPY
108.80/109.05 resistance
108.45/108.25 support
The governor of the bank of Japan held a press conference yesterday, in which he said that if the economy contracts in the future, BoJ will help the monetary policy of quantitative easing strengthen. But at present, the bank of Japan has not indicated that it is about to expand monetary policy, the yen. Currently, the market is watching the FOMC's interest rate decision and policy statement and the fed chairman's press conference. Before the news, it is recommended to pay attention to the Nikkei and Dow, leading the dollar to rise against the yen. Technically, it is recommended to focus on 108.25 support and 109.05 resistance.

USDCAD
1.3175/1.3205 resistance
1.3125/1.3105 support
The market is waiting for a comparison of U.S. and Canada jobs data, and yesterday estimated the U.S. dollar may be trading in a narrow range against the Canadian dollar. But U.S. crude oil prices rebounded, indirectly boosting the Canadian dollar. Current technical analysis estimates that the USDCAD adjustment wave is testing 1.3125 or 1.3105 support. If crude oil prices rise further, the USDCAD is expected to break through 1.3105 support. The Canadian dollar is expected to follow oil prices ahead of the FOMC decision and policy statement and the Fed chairman's press conference.

US crude oil futures
58.60/59.15 resistance
57.15/56.30 support
The U.S. President criticized the federal reserve's monetary policy and requested cut interest rate that boost crude oil prices. In addition, the trade talks is keep going, and the market expects progress in the talks to boost oil demand, bullish oil prices. This analysis recently pointed out that U.S. crude oil futures have tested 57.15 resistance after the price consolidation and are now rising further. If the FOMC releases a rate cut of more than 25 basis points or the Fed chairman's press conference signals that the rate cut will continue, oil prices could test $59 to $60. If not, dip $57 or less.

XAUUSD
1434/1438 resistance
1414/1411 support
Global Central Banks are maintaining quantitative and the fed is likely to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut today, boosting gold prices. After the fed meeting, there was no sign of further interest rate cuts ready. As well as progress in trade talks, gold also has the opportunity to test its 1411 support level. Currently ahead of results, the recommendation focuses on significant resistance of $1,434 and $1,438. If it fail, it has a chance to go down low. In addition, if the Dow rises, gold prices may also fall, please note.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
27345/27420 resistance
27090/27010 support
The Dow continued to rise after initial second-quarter GDP data beat expectations, corporate earnings beat market expectations, ADP job data rose to 150,000 in July and the federal reserve cut interest rates probably only 25 basis points. With the fed's rate cut expected to be limited, investors are focused on whether the U.S. jobs data and trade talks can make progress to restore the investment climate and lift stocks. If there are no surprises after all of today's results, keep an eye out for the Dow dip into low support at 27090 and 27010, and for resistance at 27345 and 27420.

BTCUSD:
9900 / 10250 resistance
9350 / 9100 support
US economy growth over expected. Today, the market focus on US ADP job data which is looking good number compared with last month. US Fed maybe only cut 25 basic point interest rate in this end of month, US dollar gains. Now, it is suppose bullish US dollar, bearish bitcoin. More focus on US job data and the FOMC statement. Recommend keep watching the gold price volatility how affected the bitcoin price.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

SAVE THE DATE NOW! If you are interested in participating our Seminar/ workshop (JB), Let's click the below link:https://forms.gle/uun4pUq3Xv1Qu6B29

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

Personal opinions today:

The fed cut interest rate within market expectations, the Fed fund rate falling to a range of 2 to 2.25 per cent. Fed chairman Powell said that the fed's rate cut does not represent the beginning of a cycle of rate cuts, the fed will consider the economy and inflation and economic downturn risk, and then decide whether to cut interest rates. The comments made the market judgment that the federal reserve does not need to cut interest rates in the near term, bullish dollar. But Dow fell nearly 400 points yesterday. Asian markets opened with Nikkei, China A50 and HK50 futures down. Believe European markets early, European stocks opened lower. If global stock markets fall, there is an opportunity for money to flow into the yen and gold. The federal reserve has said it will cut interest rates in the near future, with no results in China and US trade talks and crude oil futures prices likely to fall. Here are some important financial data to watch today.

Bank of England monetary policy and press conference is likely to be the biggest focus today. After the British prime minister took hard Brexit, the risk of economic risk has increased. If the Bank of England were to cut rates early or bank of England governor said at a press conference that future rate cuts would be considered, it would be a negative for pound and euro. On the contrary, if interest rates remain unchanged and forward-looking monetary policy stance remains unchanged, it is expected to bullish pound and euro.

[Important financial data and events]

09:45 China caixin manufacturing PMI for July
15:50 French manufacturing PMI for July
15:55 German manufacturing PMI for July
16:00 Eurozone manufacturing PMI for July
16:30 UK manufacturing PMI for July
19:00 Bank of England interest rate decision
19:30 Bank of England governor press conference at
19:30 U.S. challenger layoffs in July
20:30 U.S.initial jobless claims
21:45 U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI for July
22:00 U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI in July

Today suggestion:

EURUSD
1.1085/1.1100 resistance
1.1020/1.1005 support
U.S. July ADP payrolls were in line with expectations, and markets were pricing in a positive reading. FOMC interest rate forward guidance, the Fed does not plan to cut interest rate cycle. But the European central bank and the Bank of England are willing to ease monetary policy, which is bearish for the euro. Bank of England interest rate decision and bank of England governor held a press conference today. If any forward guidance is bearish on pound, the euro could be fall. Technically, the euro is testing support bits 1.1020 and 1.1005. Believe the trend of the euro indirectly affected the Swiss franc trend.

GBPUSD
1.2205/1.2230 resistance
1.2065/1.2045 support
The new British prime minister says the Brexit deal that his predecessor negotiated with the European Union is end and he is going to start all over again. Britain may face a hard Brexit. The FOMC cut interest rates by only 25 basis points, and the Fed chairman said he had no intention of starting a cycle of rate cuts. Bank of England interest rate decision today. If any forward guidance is bearish on pound, the pound could test the 1.20 level. Adjust the wave support level according to 1.2065.

AUDUSD
0.6825/0.6805 support
0.6850/0.6870 resistance
U.S. July ADP payrolls were in line with expectations and the fed's modest rate cut boosted the dollar. In addition, another key issue was the lack of progress in the trade talks, with the Australian and New Zealand dollars falling as market concerns mounted. For now, the market is watching US official non-farm payrolls data, the unemployment rate and average wages. Also, the market is waiting for the latest news on trade talks. The Australian dollar is expected to stabilize after the official U.S. nonfarm payrolls data, before the RBA meets next Tuesday. In addition, next Wednesday is the RBNZ interest rate announcement, please note.

USDJPY
109.25/109.40 resistance
108.75/108.55 support
After the federal reserve FOMC announced the rate cut, the fed policy statement and chairman of the press conference said that the need for future rate cuts was not considered, boosting the dollar to 109 yen exchange rate. But watching the nikkei and dow fall could push the dollar lower against the yen. Technically, it is recommended to focus on 109.25 or 109.40 resistance. Looking down first target 108.75 or 108.55 support. Of course, the dollar's losses against the yen are likely to be limited in anticipation of strong us data ahead of tomorrow's non-farm payrolls data.

USDCAD
1.3220/1.3245 resistance
1.3175/1.3150 support
U.S. ADP payroll match expectations, while Canada's data was weak. The Fed chairman said no plans to begin a rate cut cycle. U.S. crude oil prices fell, indirectly affecting the Canadian dollar. The current analysis estimates that the USDCAD adjustment wave is testing 1.3125 or 1.3105 support. Finally, all these negative factors, the USDCAD tested 1.32 levels. Currently estimated USDCAD is being adjusted, with first targets 1.3175 and 1.3150 supported.

US oil crude futures
58.00/58.60 resistance
57.15/56.30 support
The 12th China and US trade negotiations has ended with no results. The fed chairman said there were no long-term plans to cut rates. These factors affect the demand for crude oil, indirect negative crude oil prices. Oil prices could hit $59 to $60 if the FOMC releases a rate cut of more than 25 basis points, no more intended to cut further. So far the Fed has cut rates by only a quarter of a percentage point, and the statement said it did not keep cutting rates, estimating that oil prices could fall below $57 or below.

XAUUSD
1417/1420 resistance
1405/1402 support
Gold prices fell after the fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, pushing the price below1411 support. The Fed is not considering further rate cuts, limiting gold's rise. However, the dow fell, may be bullish gold, please note. If gold price remains supported at 1405 or 1402 and keeps above that level in the short term, it could test the resistance target of 1417 or 1420.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
27080/27220 resistance
26850/26750 support
The Dow has risen even as U.S. ADP employment rose to 150,000 in July and the federal reserve cut interest rates. But the fed disappointed markets by saying future rate cuts would be limited. In addition, If U.S. jobless claims and the July ISM manufacturing PMI are weak today, watch out the Dow fall.

BTCUSD:
10150 / 10400 resistance
9500 / 9350 support
US ADP job data reached the market expectation. FOMC only cut 25 basic point interest rate, Fed said no intention to further cut interest rate. Bullish US dollar, bearish bitcoin. Now forecast the bitcoin resistance at 10150 and 10400. Lower support may watching 9350.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

SAVE THE DATE NOW! If you are interested in participating our Seminar/ workshop (JB), Let's click the below link:https://forms.gle/uun4pUq3Xv1Qu6B29

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

For more analysis check out, please click the below link:


Market Analysis by ATFX Global Chief Market Strategist - Alejandro Zambrano

ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:

• AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA;
• ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC;
• AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines;
• AT Global Markets Intl Ltd in Mauritus is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and;
• AT Capital Markets Limited is a rep office of ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited regulated by Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) and CySEC. AT Capital Markets Limited deals with Professional clients only.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

Personal opinions today:

Before the market waits for the US official non-farm payrolls data, US President Trump announced in the media at about that he will impose 10% tariffs on the remaining 300 billion us dollars of Chinese imports, which will take effect on September 1. , 25% or more depending on progress. Dow down 600 points, gold at $1,449 and the dollar at 107 against the yen. The China renminbi fell, hitting 6.97 against the dollar, near its high of a year ago. Australia and New Zealand, which have close trading partners of China, Australian and New Zealand dollars also fell. European currencies benefited from the escalating trade war between China and the United States, with the Euro and pound supported. But U.K. faced with the risk of a hard brexit by the end of October, the euro is stronger. We believe that the global stock market is facing downside risks as the trade war between China and the United States escalates. At the same time, European market investors are likely to put their money into the gold, probably bullish gold.

The important today are the official U.S. nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for July. With ADP payrolls rising to 150, 000 in July, the market is looking conservatively for 160,000 to 180, 000 for the non-farm payrolls. If it can break through this figure, believe bullish dollar. But the more important figure, the July average earnings, is worth watching. If average wages rise or fall only slightly, the dollar is immediately bearish.

On the whole, if the US job data is strong, it will not remove the pressure to escalate the trade war between China and the US. Investors are also likely to focus on U.S. factory orders for June and the final reading of the Michigan consumer confidence index for July after U.S. jobs data are released tonight. Current estimates of the dollar trend is not optimistic, may favor European currencies. If the Dow falls further, gold price and the yen will rise.

[Important financial data and events]

14:30 Swiss monthly CPI for July
17:00 Eurozone PPI and retail sales rates for June
20:30 U.S. non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate for July
20:30 U.S. trade account for June
22:00 US factory orders monthly rate in June
22:00 US Michigan consumer confidence index for July

Today suggestion:

EURUSD
1.1125/1.1150 resistance
1.1060/1.1035 support
In Europe, June PPI and retail sales and July CPI in Switzerland were among the markets to watch. The eurozone manufacturing PMI edged up yesterday, suppose June PPI and retail sales improved, bullish the euro. The euro is likely to be volatile ahead of U.S. nonfarm payrolls for July. If U.S. nonfarm payrolls are only in line with expectations and average wages not rise, that could be bullish for the euro. Technically, the euro is influenced by important U.S. data, with reference to support levels 1.1060 and 1.1035, while resistance levels are expected to rise to 1.1125 and 1.1150. Believe that the trend of the euro indirectly affect the Swiss franc trend, is worth paying attention to.

GBPUSD
1.2145/1.2170 resistance
1.2085/1.2065 support
The British prime minister has decided to renegotiate with the European Union. Markets expect the talks to last only three months. In the short term, however, it is worth watching for U.S. nonfarm payrolls and average wage growth in July. If the results are only as expected, the pound will have a chance to rise. In addition, the trade war between China and the United States is heating up, and the dollar is also expected to be fall, which may give the British pound a chance to rebound. Technically, pound adjusts the wave support level to reference 1.2065 and the reference resistance level to reference 1.2170, with the possibility of testing the 1.22 level.

AUDUSD
0.6830/0.6850 resistance
0.6785/0.6765 support
The Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar fell yesterday as worries mounted over the lack of progress in China and US trade talks. US President Trump announced in the media that he will impose 10% tariffs on the remaining 300 billion USD of Chinese imports, hurting the Australian and New Zealand economies and exports. The Australian and New Zealand dollars fell again. The market, though, is watching US non-farm payrolls data, the unemployment rate and average wages. Without a big jump in the US data, the dollar is expected to fall. After all the data in the United States today, it is worth watching the RBA interest rate meeting next Tuesday and the RBNZ rate meeting next Wednesday, watching the trade war between China and the United States heat up, the central bank may cut interest rates, limit the Australian and New Zealand dollars, and may continue to fall.

USDJPY
107.50/107.70 resistance
106.75/106.55 support
Before the market waits for the US non-farm payrolls data, US President Trump announced in the media that he will impose 10% tariffs on the remaining 300 billion dollars of Chinese imports. The Nikkei stock index and the Dow plunged and risk aversion on, while the dollar fell against the yen. If the China-US trade war heats up and keep going on, USDJPY may test supported by 106.75 or 106.55, and is more likely to be supported by 106.05. If good news issues or the Dow rebounds, look first for 107.50 and 107.70 resistance.

USDCAD
1.3245/1.3265 resistance
1.3195/1.3175 support
After the 12th China and US trade negotiations, US President Trump announced in the media that he would impose 10% tariffs on the remaining 300 billion us dollars of Chinese imports on September 1, and may impose 25% or more tariffs as the case may be. If the trade war between China and the United States is not resolved, it will be difficult to lift the price of U.S. crude oil. The drop in crude oil prices indirectly affected the Canadian dollar decline. Technically, the USDCAD is trading at 1.32. Current for the USDCAD are adjusted ahead of the U.S. employment results, with first targets 1.3195 and 1.3175 supported. If crude oil prices fall, the U.S. dollar could see resistance of 1.3265 against the Canadian dollar.

US crude oil futures
55.70/56.30 resistance
53.30/52.20 support
The 12th trade talks has ended with no progress. The fed's chairman said there were no plans to cut interest rates in the long run, which indirectly the oil prices losses. Suddenly, US President Trump announced in the media that on September 1, he would impose 10% tariffs on the remaining $300 billion of Chinese imports, and may impose 25% or more tariffs as the case may be. Crude oil futures tumbled, dipping to $55 support after falling as low as $53.63. Crude oil futures could fall further after the Michigan consumer confidence index if fell unexpectedly in July. On the other hand, crude oil prices are stable, expected to test 55.70 or 56.30 resistance.

XAUUSD
1437/1445 resistance
1428/1420 support
US President Trump has announced in the media that he will impose tariffs of 10% on the remaining 300 billion US dollars of Chinese imports on September 1, and may impose tariffs of 25% or more as the case may be. The Dow fell as much as 600 points as panic. Gold rallied as gold gained. Gold is currently holding at $1,437 to support at $1,428, pending U.S. job data today, U.S. factory orders for June and U.S. Michigan consumer sentiment for July. If U.S. economic data falls a lot, gold could hit $1,445 and $1,449. On the contrary, the price of gold is expected to drop to $1,420 or below. It's about economic data and the sentiment, where investors can look to the Dow sentiment and catch up the gold prices moving in the opposite direction.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
26755/26860 resistance
26335/26230 support
As the trade war between China and the us heats up, US President Trump, ignoring the market panic, announced in the media on September 1 that he would impose 10% tariffs on the remaining 300 billion US dollars of Chinese imports, and may impose 25% or more tariffs as the case may be. The fear grew, and the Dow fell again. Currently, if there is no significant growth data support or good news to ease the atmosphere, the Dow is likely to dip 26335, the overall adjustment wave calculation, the next level may be 26030.

BTCUSD:
10850 / 11200 resistance
10200 / 10000 support
As the trade war between China and the us heats up, US President Trump, ignoring the market panic, announced in the media on September 1 that he would impose 10% tariffs on the remaining 300 billion US dollars of Chinese imports, and may impose 25% or more tariffs as the case may be. The fear grew, and the Dow fell again. Currently, if there is no significant growth data support or good news to ease the atmosphere, the Dow is likely to deeply fall. Bearish US dollar, bullish bitcoin. Keep watching non-farm payroll and US President Trump’s messages, aware these situations affected the crypto market.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

SAVE THE DATE NOW! If you are interested in participating our Seminar/ workshop (JB), Let's click the below link:https://forms.gle/uun4pUq3Xv1Qu6B29

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

For more analysis check out, please click the below link:


Market Analysis by ATFX Global Chief Market Strategist - Alejandro Zambrano

ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:

• AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA;
• ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC;
• AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines;
• AT Global Markets Intl Ltd in Mauritus is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and;
• AT Capital Markets Limited is a rep office of ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited regulated by Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) and CySEC. AT Capital Markets Limited deals with Professional clients only.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

Personal opinions today:

Earlier, US President Donald Trump announced that an additional 10% tariff is to be paid on the remaining $300 billion worth of Chinese imports from September 1, and it is even likely to be raised to 25%. US Non-farm payrolls were only in line with expectations but lower than last month. This time, the US President is extending the requisitioned tariffs to cover most consumer goods and electronics goods that the United States imports from China. It is difficult for the US to maintain low inflation and high growth in the future. After the trade war escalated again, the market looked forward to global economic recovery expectations. U.S. jobs are being lost and the trade war is escalating. Another slowdown in the U.S. economy could weaken the dollar and U.S. corporate earnings, triggering a new financial crisis that could shake the greenback.

After China July Caixin service sector PMI announce today, the focus of the afternoon will be on the European and U.S. service sector PMI and the U.S. non-manufacturing PMI for July. The U.S. July ISM non-manufacturing PMI can influence the dollar, while gold and crude oil prices could be affected. Watch the RBA meeting tomorrow and the RBNZ meeting the day after.

[important financial data and events]

09:45 China Caixin service sector PMI, July
13:45 Swiss Consumer confidence index, July
14:30 Swiss Retail sales in June
15:50 French Service sector PMI, July
15:55 German Service PMI, July
16:00 Eurozone services PMI, July
16:30 Eurozone Sentix sentiment index for August
16:30 UK Services PMI, July
21:45 U.S. Markit Service PMI, July
22:00 U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI July

Today suggestion:

EURUSD
1.1145/1.1165 resistance
1.1105/1.1085 support
European markets today focused on the final July PMI readings for France, Germany and the Eurozone, as well as Swiss consumer confidence for July and actual retail sales for June. While these data are not the market's primary concern, they can still affect the euro. Technically, after the big U.S. data, the downside risk for the euro was tempered by reference to support at 1.1105 and 1.1085, with resistance at 1.1145 and 1.1165. Believe that the trend of the euro indirectly affect the Swiss franc trend, is worth paying attention to.

GBPUSD
1.2195/1.2225 resistance
1.2125/1.2105 support
Britain faces the risk of a hard Brexit at the end of October, less than three months away, despite the negative impact on the pound. Us non-farm payrolls data for July were only in line with expectations. As this analysis showed last week, the dollar ended strong, the pound has the opportunity to rise. In addition, the trade war between China and the United States is heating up. The United States is taking the initiative to requisitioning imported goods. It is estimated that the dollar is going weakening, and the pound may rebound under the circumstance. Technically, after the adjustment of the pound to 1.2065, the trend reverses, the rebound wave can refer to the resistance level 1.2170, if continue to test the 1.22 level, the key resistance level can refer to 1.2245.

AUDUSD
0.6805/0.6820 resistance
0.6745/0.6725 support
Since US President Donald Trump announced impose 10% tariffs on the remaining 300 billion US dollars of Chinese imports, China and US trade wars has been heating up, hurting China and affecting the economies and exports of Australia and New Zealand. The Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar have fallen respectively. The Australian dollar fell on fears of another rate cut after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut interest rates tomorrow. On Wednesday, Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) meets to watch the trade war between the United States and China heat up and the central bank may cut interest rates, which could continue to hurt the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

USDJPY
106.50/106.70 resistance
105.65/105.45 support
US President Donald Trump has announced a 10% tariff on the remaining 300 billion US dollars of Chinese imports. U.S. job data for July was lower than the previous month, suggesting the economy may have contracted. The Nikkei and Dow fell and risk aversion rose, while the dollar fell against the yen. Technically, support for the original first target of 106.75 or 106.55 has been breached, possibly looking down at 105 level. If good news eases or the Dow rebounds, look first for 106.50 and 106.70 resistance.

USDCAD
1.3245/1.3265 resistance
1.3195/1.3175 support
As the trade war between China and the us escalates, US President Donald trump has announced that he will impose 10% tariffs on the remaining 300 billion us dollars of Chinese imports starting from September 1, and may impose 25% or more tariffs as the case may be. If the trade war between China and the United States is not resolved, it will be difficult to lift the price of U.S. crude oil. The drop in crude oil prices indirectly affected the Canada dollar decline. Technically, the U.S. dollar will continue to test 1.32 against the Canadian dollar. It is estimated that the USDCAD is adjusted after the results of the US job data, and the first targets 1.3195 and 1.3175 are supported. If crude oil prices fall, the U.S. dollar could see resistance of 1.3265 against the Canadian dollar.

US crude oil futures
55.70/56.30 resistance
53.65/52.85 support
US imposing 10 % tariffs on the remaining US$300bn of Chinese imports from September 1. A slowdown in oil demand could begin at any time, with crude oil futures trading at $55 or below a further $53.65. Crude oil prices are now stable after key U.S. data and are expected to test resistance of 55.70 or 56.30. But expectations of slower demand for crude oil could limit the price rise.

XAUUSD
1452/1456 resistance
1436/1433 support
US President Donald trump has announced that impose 10% tariffs on the remaining 300 billion US dollars of Chinese imports on September 1. The Dow fell, the Nikkei fell and gold rallied. Technically, gold could see resistance at $1,452 and $1,456 if the lack of positive news boosts stocks and eases risk aversion. Investors can look to the Dow and the Nikkei to gauge sentiment and the price of gold.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
26515/26770 resistance
26335/26230 support
As the trade war between China and the United States heats up, the US President has announced the imposition of 10% tariffs on the remaining $300 billion of Chinese imports from September 1, with the possibility of 25% or more as the case may be. If there is no significant growth data or good news to support, the Dow is likely to dip 26230, the next level may be 26030. The Dow could fall further if the President doesn't resolve the impasse.

BTCUSD:
11850 / 12300 resistance
10850 / 10600 support
As the trade war between China and US heats up, US President Trump announced that impose 10% tariffs on the remaining 300 billion US dollars of Chinese imports, and may impose 25% or more tariffs. Dow is keeping fall and bearish US dollar, bullish bitcoin.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

SAVE THE DATE NOW! If you are interested in participating our Seminar/ workshop (JB), Let's click the below link:https://forms.gle/uun4pUq3Xv1Qu6B29

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

Personal opinions today:

The escalating trade war between the United States and China, raising concerns. European currencies the euro and the Swiss franc followed the yen and gold as safe havens in a trade battle between the United States and China. Last night, before the US market closed, the Dow and the US dollar were further after the US government declared China a currency manipulator. The yen and gold first broke through recent highs, while the Euro and Swiss franc rebounded. If there is no good news in the short term, the U.S. government continues to threaten China with unreasonable, global stock markets continue to fall, and the prices of the above-mentioned safe-haven assets will probably rise further. The dollar index is now at 97 and could fall further if Washington fails to resolve the situation. As the dollar continues to fall, crypto currencies could also be pushed higher.

The reserve bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to cut interest rates this afternoon as worried trade war between China and the United States could weigh on growth prospects. The Australian and New Zealand dollars have fallen recently, and if the RBA cuts rates, the RBNZ could follow tomorrow, with the Australian and New Zealand dollars likely to fall further. Conversely, if the RBA holds rates unchanged today and the RBNZ does the same tomorrow, it is likely to boost the respective currencies. In addition, it is noteworthy that the information office of the state council of China held a press conference today. If it involves the recent heated up trade war between China and the United States, it is worth paying attention to how the country should respond or fight back. It also looks at how it affects Asian stock futures and U.S. Dow futures, currency and gold prices.

[Important financial data and events]

12:30 The Reserve bank of Australia interest rates decision
16:00 China the state council Press conference
24:00 EIA releases its monthly short-term energy outlook
24:00 Fed bullard speaks
Next day at 04:30 US API crude oil stock change

Today suggestion :

EURUSD
1.1265/1.1285 resistance
1.1195/1.1175 support
Europe has yet to see a significant recovery, but the Euro and Swiss franc have strengthened. The biggest reason is that the recent US President threats against China have forced the trade war to heat up, with European currencies becoming another safe haven. This recent analysis suggests that china-us trade talks cannot continue and are seriously damaging to the us economy. The downside risk to the euro has been mitigated by key U.S. data, with resistance levels expected to rise to 1.1145 and 1.1165. Believe the trend of the euro indirectly affected the Swiss franc trend. If China's state council information office holds a press conference today, it will escalate the trade war between China and the United States. European currencies are expected to move higher, with the euro target at 1.1285 or higher.

GBPUSD
1.2195/1.2225 resistance
1.2125/1.2105 support
Britain faces the risk of a hard Brexit at the end of October, despite the negative impact on the pound. However, as the trade war between China and the us heats up, the US government has taken the initiative to damage the strength of the dollar, and the British pound may take the opportunity to rebound. Technically, the adjustment to 1.2065 after the end of the trend reversal, the rebound wave can refer to the resistance level 1.2170. If the trade war between China and US risk aversion again, pound could continue to test around 1.22, with key resistance levels at 1.2245.

AUDUSD
0.6805/0.6825 resistance
0.6745/0.6725 support
Risk aversion on trade between China and the United States, the Australian and New Zealand dollars falling respectively. The Australian dollar still has a chance to fall as the RBA meeting today and markets worry about another rate cut. Tomorrow, RBNZ interest rate decision. Keep an eye on RBA decision for reference. If the RBA says it may cut interest rates, it could also hurt the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

USDJPY
106.50/106.70 resistance
105.65/105.45 support
Yesterday, the U.S. government announced that China is a currency manipulator, and it is expected that the September trade talks between China and the United States may not be held, damaging the investment market and sentiment. The Dow and Nikkei fell and risk aversion, while the dollar fell against the yen. Technically, the dollar has dipped to 105.50 yen. For now, look for 106.50 and 106.70 resistance. The market watched as China's state council information office held a news conference, and if the Chinese counterattacked and the Dow and Nikkei suffered, the dollar could dip 105 levels against the yen.

USDCAD
1.3225/1.3245 resistance
1.3175/1.3155 support
As the trade war between China and the US risk aversion, US President Donald Trump has announced that he will impose 10% tariffs on the remaining 300 billion us dollars of Chinese imports starting from September 1, and may impose 25% or more. If the short-term trade war between China and the United States is not resolved, it will be difficult to lift the price of U.S. crude oil. The drop in crude oil prices indirectly affected the Canadian dollar decline. Technically, the U.S. dollar will continue to test 1.32 against the Canadian dollar. It is estimated that the USDCAD is adjusted, and the first targets 1.3175 and 1.3155 are supported. If crude oil prices fall, the USDCAD could see resistance of 1.3245.

US crude oil futures
55.50/56.00 resistance
53.85/53.35 support
Trade between China and the US has risk aversions, with the US imposing 10 % tariffs on the remaining $300bn of Chinese imports from September 1. A slowdown in oil demand could begin at any time, with crude oil futures trading at or below $55, a technical dip of $53.65. It is recommended to pay close attention to the amount of API crude oil inventories change tomorrow.

XAUUSD
1472/1476 resistance
1456/1453 support
US President Donald Trump has announced in the media that he will impose 10 % tariffs on the remaining 300 billion dollars of Chinese imports on September 1. Last night the US government added China to its list of currency manipulators. The Dow, the Nikkei fell and gold price was bullish as markets predicted to stop in U.S. - China trade talks. Technically, gold could hit another $1,472 and $1,476 resistance conservatively if the lack of positive news boosts equities and risk off. Investors can look to the Dow and the Nikkei fall and the gold price rise.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
25515/25670 resistance
25035/24730 support
As the trade war between China and the United States heats up, the US President has announced the imposition of 10% tariffs on the remaining $300 billion of Chinese imports from September 1, with the possibility of 25% or more as the case may be. The Dow fell again as panic mounted after the U.S. government declared China a currency manipulator. The Dow could dip further to 25,035 or 24,730 if there is no significant growth data to back it up or good news to ease the mood. It could fall further if the US President does not resolve the impasse.

BTCUSD:
11850 / 12300 resistance
10850 / 10600 support
As the trade war between China and US heats up, US President Trump announced that impose 10% tariffs on the remaining 300 billion US dollars of Chinese imports, and may impose 25% or more tariffs. The main reason that Dow and other major stocks fell, bearish US dollar, bullish bitcoin. If the sentiment continues, bullish bitcoin and other crypto currencies may following.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

SAVE THE DATE NOW! If you are interested in participating our Seminar/ workshop (JB), Let's click the below link:https://forms.gle/uun4pUq3Xv1Qu6B29

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

For more analysis check out, please click the below link:


Market Analysis by ATFX Global Chief Market Strategist - Alejandro Zambrano

ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:

• AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA;
• ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC;
• AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines;
• AT Global Markets Intl Ltd in Mauritus is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and;
• AT Capital Markets Limited is a rep office of ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited regulated by Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) and CySEC. AT Capital Markets Limited deals with Professional clients only.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Aug 7

Personal opinions today:

China and the United States are deadlocked, worries are rising and global stock markets are in a perilous situation. The European currency, the euro, and the Swiss franc are another safe haven after the Japanese yen and gold. European currencies did well and the pound held steady against the dollar. At the moment, the main concern is that trade talks between China and the United States will not be scheduled for September, as investors assess further economic slowdown in Asia and the United States, and safe-haven fund flows to European markets, euro bonds and other safe-haven assets. If there is no good news in the short term, the U.S. President and administration continue to use unjustified threats against China, which is expected to depress global stock markets and boost safe-haven asset prices. If China reports today that its foreign exchange reserves fell in July, especially in the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds, the dollar index could break 97. A fall in the dollar could push up the price of gold, a safe-haven asset. In contrast, industrial precious metals and crude oil prices will fall.

Today in Europe and the US, there are no markets to look forward to. All eyes are on the Dow and the US government's comments. It is believed that no good news announcement will only affect the sentiment of stock market investment, the dollar index and dollar assets fell, safe haven flows into gold, the yen and European currencies. Industrial precious metals and crude oil prices fell.

[Important financial data and events]

10:00 RBNZ interest rate decision
14:00 German industrial output in June
14:45 French trade account for June
15:30 U.K. Halifax house price index in July
16:00 China foreign exchange reserves in July
21:30 Fed Evans moderates the press breakfast
22:30 U.S. EIA crude oil inventories

Today suggestion:

EURUSD
1.1255/1.1270 resistance
1.1185/1.1170 support
Europe's economy has yet to see a significant recovery, and recently the U.S. President and administration have often used to threaten China, forcing the trade war between China and the United States to heat up, capital inflows to European currencies. While there is no economic reason for European currencies to rise, safe-haven inflows can keep them from falling. Believe the trend of the euro indirectly affected the Swiss franc trend. At present, the trade war between China and the United States has not improved, Euro is expected to rise to 1.1285 or higher.

GBPUSD
1.2210/1.2245 resistance
1.2155/1.2120 support
Although Britain faces the risk of a hard Brexit at the end of October, it is bearish for the pound. But as the trade war between China and the United States heats up, undermining the strength of the dollar, pound could rebound. Yesterday, British pound was once attracted by safe-haven money inflows, and the pound was quoted at 1.22 against the U.S. dollar, in line with the expectation of this analysis yesterday. Technically, currently, the trade war between China and the United States has not improved, and it is not supported by good data from the United States. The Dow has fallen, European currencies are likely to see a high line, British pound may again test around the 1.22 level, and key resistance levels can be seen at 1.2245. Of course, when investing in the pound, you also need to take into account the news of Brexit negotiations between the EU and the British government, and judge the trend of good news and bad news, bullish or bearish the pound.

AUDUSD
0.6805/0.6825 resistance
0.6765/0.6750 support
Rising trade between China and the United States hurt China's economy and hurt the economies and exports of Australia and New Zealand, with the Australian and New Zealand dollars falling respectively. But the New Zealand dollar fell today as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates by 50 basis points in response to a weak global economy. In addition, the trade war between China and the United States is heating up further, and the decline of the RMB may affect the decline of the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar. Attention please!

USDJPY
106.50/106.70 resistance
105.95/105.75 support
The Dow, the Nikkei and the USDJPY were roughly in line, as risk aversion increased and stocks fell, while the dollar fell against the yen. Technically, pay attention to 106.50 and 106.70 resistance. The market is waiting to see if the trade war between China and the United States can cool down. If relations between the two sides improve, the Dow and Nikkei could rebound and the dollar could test resistance of 106.50 and 106.70 against the yen. If not, go down to 105.

USDCAD
1.3285/1.3315 resistance
1.3245/1.3215 support
The trade war between China and the United States has escalated, and crude oil inventories have surged. If the short-term trade war between China and the United States is not resolved, it will be difficult to lift the price of U.S. crude oil. The drop in crude oil prices indirectly affected the Canadian dollar's decline. Technically, the USDCAD will probably test 1.33 and likely approach 1.34.

US oil crude futures
55.50/56.00 resistance
53.85/53.35 support
China and the United States trade upgrade, crude oil inventories rose sharply. The slowdown in crude oil demand began as early as last week when the U.S. and China failed to negotiate. If crude futures break $53.20, it could technically hit $52.65 and $51.85. Pay close attention to the trade war between China and the United States, and judge the trend based on good and bad news, bullish or bearish the crude oil price .

XAUUSD
1492/1496 resistance
1482/1478 support
US President Donald Trump has announced in the media that he will impose 10 percent tariffs on the remaining 300 billion dollars of Chinese imports. The U.S. government lists China as a currency manipulator. U.S. - China trade talks stalled, Dow, Nikkei fell, gold bullish. Technically, gold could hit another $1,500 barrier if the lack of positive news to boosts market sentiment and eases risk aversion. Investors can look to the Dow and the Nikkei to gauge sentiment and the price of gold.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
26025/26300 resistance
25675/25370 support
As the trade war between China and the United States heats up and the U.S. government declares China a currency manipulator, the investment panic is growing. Yesterday, the Dow fell to a low of 25,035. Spurred by the news, China has no intention of enforcing a strike, boosting the dow by 26, 000. The Dow could fall further if the US President does not resolve the impasse and continue to spoil the talks. Target expected 25370 and 25035 support.

BTCUSD:
11850 / 12300 resistance
10850 / 10600 support
As the trade war between China and US heats up, Dow and other major stocks fell, hedge fund inflows to other capital market, bearish US dollar and bullish bitcoin. If the sentiment continues, bullish bitcoin and other crypto currencies may following. Recommend check out the trends of gold price and compares the bitcoin price.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

SAVE THE DATE NOW! If you are interested in participating our Seminar/ workshop (JB), Let's click the below link:https://forms.gle/uun4pUq3Xv1Qu6B29

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

For more analysis check out, please click the below link:


Market Analysis by ATFX Global Chief Market Strategist - Alejandro Zambrano

ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:

• AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA;
• ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC;
• AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines;
• AT Global Markets Intl Ltd in Mauritus is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and;
• AT Capital Markets Limited is a rep office of ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited regulated by Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) and CySEC. AT Capital Markets Limited deals with Professional clients only.