ATFX Market Updates 2020

ATFX Launches Q2 2020 Report

ATFX has released its quarterly global market outlook for Q2 2020. The broker’s in-house experts share their views regarding factors that could influence the markets in the coming quarter. The analysts featured in the report gave their predictions on major currency pairs, commodities, equities and cryptocurrency for Q2.

Alejandro Zambrano, ATFX’s Global Chief Market Strategist, covers the major currency pairs including EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, and GBP/USD. He explains what he thinks will happen to each of the currency pairs, looking at the most likely scenarios.

Alejandro explains two scenarios, one - “If the borders close, the Eurozone could slump into a recession.” And two - “However, the euro could rally if the coronavirus pandemic is contained early in the quarter.”

As for the USD/JPY outlook, he notes that “The economic situation in Japan tends to have a low impact on the currency until the Bank of Japan decides to embark on large QE and rate cut programs … the currency tends therefore to follow the mood of global risk appetite.”

Cameron Bowen, a senior content manager at ATFX UK discusses the outlook of global equities based on existing factors and the most likely outcomes.

A major factor that is likely to influence the performance of global stock indices is the coronavirus pandemic that has led to the worst ever quarterly performance for stocks in Q1. How governments handle the pandemic going forward will determine how stocks perform in Q2.

Cameron also observes that “The short term future of this market will ultimately come down to how the spread of the coronavirus is handled … I expect to see continued volatility in the coming weeks but I think we will see it soften.”

He also covers cryptocurrencies and how their recent performance negates the concept of cryptos being a safe haven or an uncorrelated asset class.

Martin Lam, ATFX’s Chief Analyst for the Asia Pacific region covers commodities including gold and oil and their likely performance in Q2. He states that gold is likely to rally during the quarter if the COVID-19 pandemic continues to ravage countries and the death toll keeps rising.

Another sell-off in the equity markets could trigger a major rally in gold past its recent high of $1,702 that it reached in March. However, action in the gold markets could be subdued if the equity markets rally and the global economy recovers. Further central bank easing could also trigger a rally by gold.

Mr Lam also covers the crude oil market where he expects oil prices to rise on higher demand and potential supply cuts in Q2. Oil prices are usually strong in Q2 and this seasonal strength could also boost the commodity. The crude oil outlook will also be affected by the coronavirus pandemic.

ATFX continues to provide regular updates to traders on how the predictions made in the Q2 report are unfolding in the markets during these challenging times.



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ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:
  • AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA);
  • ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC);
  • AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines;
  • AT Global Markets Intl Ltd in Mauritius is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC)
 
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Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
 
For most investors and traders, retail sales report significantly affect their investment strategies. As the figures reflect the retail consumption appetite - how much consumers are spending and the retailers they are spending with - therefore the overall wellness of the US economy, as the personal consumption represent two-thirds of the US GDP.

Obviously, it is already clear that the sudden stopover most economic activities would create a nose-dive in stock market therefor consumer confidence will follow.

For now, any data would suggest an inevitable recession, the question is how the consumption appetite would be affected during and post-COVID-19?

March would only mark the beginning of a recessionary fall in retail sales, but the decline is expected to deepen in April.

With retail sales and jobless claims coming out this week in the US, all we can do is try to gauge the amount of harm the COVID-19 pandemic is causing nearly 16.5 million Americans already filing for jobless claims in the past three weeks – and an expected 5 million initial claims to follow for the upcoming week, the appetite for consumption will definitely go drastically down.

Already by the second week of March, U.S. retail traffic was down more than 30% year over year, according to data from Cowen.

The average market consensus showing a drop of 8% from the previous data, and a fall of 5% in retail sales excluding autos; a catastrophic number compared to the decline by 0.5% witnessed in February when we started to feel the COVID-19 spread impact.

It is also crucial to mention that in January, a revised data showed an upward trend in retails sales of 0.6% (but it was still a weak uptrend, indicating that consumption appetite was also shaky prior to the coronavirus outbreak).

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With data reports coming out dramatically worse than forecasts. the most likely the retail sales data will show us another misguiding sign from the actual figures comparing to the expected one. would be the possibility of an irregular gain in March report, caused by lockdowns and quarantines all over the country forcing households to stock up on supplies more than their actual need but at the end, this increasing if happen will be in one or two sectors of the retail sales in the opposite side the logic expectations that we will witness a huge decline in the retail sales numbers in many sectors, for example, motor vehicles & parts, furniture, electronics & appliances, building materials, clothing, restaurants & bars.

Over the next quarter and the whole year, these difficult challenges would direct the consumption behavior, and even if we manage to survive the recession a whole new approach of consumption might present itself in the new world of post novel coronavirus.



Analysis was written by Ramy Abouzaid, ATFX (AE) Head of Market Research.

Legal:
ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : The Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.
 
For more analysis check out, please click the below link:
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ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:
  • AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA
  • ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC,
  • AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines,
  • AT Global Markets Intl Ltd is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) in Republic of Mauritius
 
For more analysis check out, please click the below link:
IFrame



ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:
  • AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA
  • ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC,
  • AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines,
  • AT Global Markets Intl Ltd is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) in Republic of Mauritius
 
For more analysis check out, please click the below link:


ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:
  • AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA
  • ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC,
  • AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines,
  • AT Global Markets Intl Ltd is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) in Republic of Mauritius
 
For more analysis check out, please click the below link:



ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:
  • AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA
  • ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC,
  • AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines,
  • AT Global Markets Intl Ltd is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) in Republic of Mauritius
 
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Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT GLOBAL MARKETS LLC (ATGM, registration number 333 LLC 2020). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : First Floor, First St. Vincent Bank Ltd, James Street, Kingstown, St.Vincent and the Grenadines.
 
For more analysis check out, please click the below link:



ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:
  • AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA
  • ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC,
  • AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines,
  • AT Global Markets Intl Ltd is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) in Republic of Mauritius
 
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