ATFX Market Updates 2020

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ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:
  • AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA
  • ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC,
  • AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines,
  • AT Global Markets Intl Ltd is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) in Republic of Mauritius
 
ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 April 2


Personal opinions today:

The COVID 19 infections in Europe and the United States, the number has risen sharply. The United States surpassing the world becomes the top number of cases. The outbreak has unnerved the global economy, with U.S. Dow futures down over 1,000 points to as low as 20,796 last night. The decline eased before the close, but it was still down 976 points from the previous close. Stocks fell in Europe and the United States, while gold and silver price rose. The global economy, though, has been hit by the outbreak and demand for oil has slowed. Saudi oil producers are intent on increasing output and maintaining a price war, but the presidents of Russia and the United States have spoken on the phone in anticipation of the two countries working together to reduce production and stabilize prices. With the price of crude falling to the cost of Russian producers, the Russian President said he was willing to discuss cutting production with local producers. U.S. oil futures rose from below $20 to $21.5 after the confirmation but still failed to break above the previous high of $22. Believe that if more oil producers are willing to cut production, crude prices could rise.

Today's biggest focus was on U.S. job data, the US companies’ layoffs number in March and jobless claims change. If layoffs and job losses continue to rise, short-term bearish Dow futures and global stocks. Risk-off factors, gold, silver prices, and the Japanese yen, but bearish crude oil prices.

[Important financial data and events to watch]
Note: * denotes importance

14:00 Nationwide house price index in March **
14:39 Swiss CPI in March* *
17:00 Eurozone PPI in February**
19:30 US Challenger companies layoffs in March * * *
20:30 US trade account in February *
20:30 US jobless claims change* * *
22:00 US factory orders in February * *

EURUSD
1.0970/1.0985 resistance
1.0925/1.0905 support

Eurozone and Germany Manufacturing PMI fell slightly in March, bearish for the Euro. The Euro fell as low as 1.0905 to the dollar after U.S. data showed the ADP payrolls fell less than expected in March. Ahead of tonight's report on U.S. initial jobless claims, the dollar is expected to narrow gains, with the Euro on track for 50% or 61.8% of a tentative correction at 1.0970 and 1.0985 resistance levels, respectively.

The pound to the dollar
1.2440/1.2460 resistance
1.2320/1.2305 support

U.S. data showing ADP payroll fell less than expected in March bullish the dollar. In addition, Eurozone and UK data are still weak, limited the pound to the dollar gains. Technical resistance to the dollar fell to 1.2460. But fundamentals lead the trend, with advice on U.S. jobless claims. Believe before the announcement, the GBPUSD is expected to test the 1.2440 or 1.2460 resistance level.

Australian dollar/US dollar
0.6170/0.6185 resistance
0.6050/0.6035 support

The AUDUSD fell to a low of 0.6035 last night as the U.S. manufacturing PMI and ADP payroll better than expected. The Australian dollar is expected to rise against the U.S. dollar before the U.S. initial jobless claims data, but whether it can test the resistance of 0.6170 or 0.6185 depends on the U.S. data and the dollar's decline.

Dollar to Japanese yen
107.75/107.90 resistance
107.05/106.90 support

Dow futures and the Nikkei tend always to lead the dollar-yen movements and volatility. Yesterday, when Dow futures fell and the Nikkei fell together, the dollar-yen test the 107 level, falling as low as 106.90. Technically, if we calculate the USDJPY correction range of 50% in March, the first support level target is 106.40 and the next level is 105.20. If U.S. job data is weak tonight, Dow futures fall and the dollar's losses widen, the dollar-yen could test the above support level.

US dollar/Canadian dollar
1.4255/1.4275 resistance
1.4145/1.4125 support level

The crude oil prices, indirect impact on the performance of the Canadian dollar. In this case, USDCAD continued to trade between the 1.40 level and the 1.42 level. In addition, the U.S. data will also affect the U.S. dollar to the Canadian dollar. Believe the next test of support at 1.4145 or 1.4125 could come tonight ahead of the US initial jobless claims data.

US crude oil futures
21.90/22.20 resistance
19.95/19.65 support

As the global economy slows, demand for crude oil is slowing. Saudi oil producers continued to sell crude at reduced prices and announced an increase in output. It is believed that US crude oil prices will continue to be limited to a significant $25 resistance range. The global outbreak has not seen improvement, It would continue to bearish crude oil prices. Technically, watch out for wave resistance at $21.90 and $22.20, respectively. Initial key support at $19.95 and $19.65.

Gold
1610/1613 resistance
1575/1573 support

It is estimated that if investors expect weak data in Europe and the United States and economic slowdown, watch for gold and silver prices could rise. Technically, the gold price has rebounded sharply after hitting $1,567 then hit the first level of resistance at $1,600. Most of the trade positions seem to trade between $1570 to $1600. If break the resistance, it could see the first significant resistance at $1,613.

Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
21300/21485 resistance
20755/20435 support

Dow futures continued to fall as investors downplayed the outlook for the economy and corporate earnings amid a pandemic spreads in the US. Believe if Dow futures short-term rebound, strength, and expansion are limited. Note tonight's U.S. data on the number of jobless claims. If the data beats expectations, Dow futures could extend the rally. If the adjusted wave is used to estimate, the support level is 20755 and 20435 respectively.

BTCUSD:
6800/ 7000 resistance
5700 / 5550 support

The federal reserve launches No limited QE program. Technically, the bitcoin price would rebound. The bitcoin price is looking for $6800 or $7000 resistance. If the price breaks $7000, the bitcoin price would test $10,000.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
 
For more analysis check out, please click the below link:
IFrame


ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:
  • AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA
  • ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC,
  • AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines,
  • AT Global Markets Intl Ltd is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) in Republic of Mauritius
 
LeapRate Exclusive… ATFX has been quite busy since the beginning of 2020, introducing new CFD products to its offer, as well as trading services in MetaTrader 5 platform. The company has also launched some of the latest technologies out there, such as biometric facial recognition for trading account opening and e-sign.

Jeffrey Siu, ATFX Group COO and Wei Qiang Zhang, ATFX (UK) Managing Director join LeapRate today to discuss key demands from traders, regulation and new rules, retail, 2020 expectations and more.



LR: Compared to 2018, how successful was 2019 for ATFX – what has changed, what would you like to leave behind?

Jeffrey:
I’d honestly say that 2019 was extremely successful for ATFX compared to 2018. We launched lots of new products and services for our clients; participated in the major events around Europe and developed a professional education service to our clients.

One of the major highlights for the year was the launch of ATFX Connect, our bespoke institutional service, which so far, has been very well-received. We’re continuing with this approach into 2020 with a focus on products that set us apart from our competitors. We’ve listened to our clients and will be releasing more products and services this year.

LR: What were the key demands from traders in 2019?

Wei:
We uncovered two main sets of demands from the traders on our platform last year. The first is that both retail and professional traders want the best services available and it’s our job to deliver products and services that surpass their expectations. The second was from professional traders looking for institutional services, which helped us identify significant demand from brokers, hedge funds, and other proprietary traders.

ATFX launched several educational services that cover an array of topics for our clients. The Forex Education Centre continues to grow as our team of experts create lots of videos and eBooks to help our clients’ learning.

We also launched ATFX Connect, a bespoke service for professional traders, and we’re pleased to say it’s been widely well-received.

On top of that, we’ve opened offices in various countries, employing local people. This is important because they understand their respective markets and can easily connect with our clients in those areas.

LR: How could ATFX (Retail) and ATFX Connect (Institutional) influence the market in 2020?

Wei:
Both ATFX and ATFX Connect will continue to transform the forex trading industry by providing technology-led, innovative tools to our clients. We plan to launch several new products and education services that address gaps in the market. The Forex industry is hugely competitive and we plan to distinguish ourselves by speaking directly to clients and offering tailor-made solutions. We intend to continue in our upward trajectory this year by delivering to both institutional and retail traders.

LR: How important is education and where does it stand in your company?

Jeffrey:
ATFX believes that education is the single most important tool to transform someone into a successful trader. Education allows traders to understand the inherent risk present in the financial markets and how to manage their risk exposure by making informed decisions.

We want to make sure our clients are equipped with the right knowledge to trade and is why we’ve developed our education centre. We also partner with high-end service providers including Trading Central who give our clients the best research available. Our plan is to keep investing in education for our traders, and to further expand the reach and depth of our in-person training seminars and workshops.

LR: What has changed for the retail trading industry in 2019, and what do you expect in 2020?

Jeffrey:
A major challenge we saw in 2019 was that this was the first full year in which ESMA’s new leverage rules were in effect. Together with rule changes of other regulators, the industry is no less busy adapting to extra scrutiny from authorities this year.

Also, we’ve noticed that the retail trading industry has shifted towards more personalised services. They’re demanding more from brokers, they want the ‘full package’. Innovative technology products that were once reserved for institutional traders, like machine learning trading strategies that use sentiment analysis are now in the product line.

We noticed that brokers who only allow deposits via card payments are facing difficulties due to the tightening up of Visa and Mastercard Scheme policies. ATFX has integrated our payment services with multiple payment providers (especially non-card payments) to serve our clients better. Our clients in different regions can now deposit and withdraw their funds via local payment services available in their countries. We will continue to introduce more trading products and services in line with client needs.

Going forward in 2020, we continue to see radical changes like ones mentioned above. We’ve adapted to this shift by increasing the number of deposit options available and offering customer service in multiple languages. We’ve launched several next-generation technologies as part of our services offering such as biometric verification and e-sign. Additional plans include the introduction of more products and services based on changes we’re noticing and you’ll be hearing about them soon.

LR: What upcoming trends do you see emerging and making an impact on the industry in the next few years?

Jeffrey:
A major trend that is emerging in the industry is the fact that a lot of our business is coming from emerging and developing markets. With the exception of the US, many other developed markets are saturated with brokers, especially in Europe. Emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are underserved and this presents a great opportunity for us. Brokers should venture into these markets and create products tailored to meet the needs of traders in these regions. ATFX already has operations in some emerging markets and plans to open offices in many more later this year.

Brokers will also have to create innovative products and services to appeal to traders. Having that cutting edge will really pay dividends when it comes to standing out and attracting more clients. The retail brokerage industry is changing, the introduction of leverage caps by regulators are steps to protect retail traders. Lower liquidity in the markets has seen many brokers report lower revenues and profits. This has created yet more competition for new clients in order to boost revenues.

LR: How will Brexit affect the retail trading industry?

Wei:
We don’t expect Brexit to have a major impact on the retail trading market but it will clearly impact both currencies, the EUR and GBP. If anything, volatility will attract new investors to the markets and could help grow the market. We expect both the EU and UK to be well prepared for Brexit in terms of structure as large clearing houses have set up cross-border arrangements. Therefore, we expect the clearing of derivatives to continue as usual given regulators have been working on arrangements since 2017.

LR: What is the biggest opportunity you see for SMEs in 2020 and what is one tip that you have for businesses to pursue it?

Jeffrey:
SMEs should factor in foreign exchange risk when forecasting especially given the global nature of business. Considerations should be made about how you pay suppliers in different countries or receive payments in another currency. Partnering with brokers like ATFX Connect who offer bespoke FX services to SMEs will ensure they always get the best rate. These partnerships will protect them from spikes in currency markets because they can hedge their risk through us.

LR: What role will exchanges play in the evolution of the FX market?

Jeffrey:
FX and CFD brokers offer over-the-counter trading products to their customers. This is the nature of the industry and we continue to see it this way in the near future.

Of course there are overlaps of product features. Robinhood or the trading service of Revolut is making stock trading much easier for retail investors; leveraged ETFs, exchange traded warrants issued over stock indices and commodities offer very similar trading features to CFD trading.

As a Forex and CFD broker, we are also closely following evolving financial innovations like “smart contracts”, which will blur the boundary between OTC and exchange trading. We’re confident that we’ll continue to provide new products that our clients love. Our client first approach helps us identify exactly what they want in a product or service.

LR: Any marketing strategy tips for 2020?

Jeffrey:
Well, I can’t reveal exactly what ATFX is planning, but I believe the adage “customer is king,” is the best marketing advice for any business in 2020. With all the technological changes in the last decade and the wealth of information available, businesses that want to win in long-term competition have to be focused on their clients. The retail trading industry is shifting and understanding our own customers will continue to give us a significant advantage.
 
On the first Friday of the month, the US Non-farm payrolls tend to get all the focus, and few traders focus on the Canadian labour market report that is usually released on the same day, and at the same time.

The reason why I prefer the Canadian labor market figures is because traders tend to act more rational on the figure release by selling the Canadian dollar on a bad report and buy it on a good outcome. The US NFP, on the other hand, tends to trade irrationally with big swings to the upside and the downside in the first hours of the report, making it easy to lose money.

The next Canadian labor market report will, however, not publish this Friday. Instead, it is due to be published on Thursday, April 9, at 13:30, as Friday is a bank holiday in Canada.



Market Expectations
The current estimates are for the Canadian unemployment to remain unchanged at 5.6%. The unemployment rate has been around the same level since September, and I think it is unlikely that the figure will remain around the same level because of the Coronavirus crisis. On the coronavirus front, the spread of cases in Canada increased by about 20.5% per day from March 21 to March 31 for a total of 8161 cases on March 31. The growth rate is similar to what we have seen in the rest of the world.

No critical data covering the recent coronavirus spread period has been published, except for the Canada Markit Manufacturing PMI that dropped to 46 from 51.8 prior, and lower than the 53.3 anticipated. The PMI is a leading economic indicator, and it suggests that the Canadian economy has slowed down sharply.

We also know that the Canadian central bank reduced interest rates from 1.75% in January to 0.25% on March 27, so the Canadian unemployment rate is bound to rise. Also, the Canadian dollar has been under massive pressure due to the ever-declining crude oil prices, and when writing this on April 1, crude oil prices were trading at $20.28 and bearish below the $22.05 level.

If the expectations are for an unchanged unemployment rate remain as we head into Thursday next week, then I think it is likely that we will see a massive move on the Canadian dollar.


Analysis was written by Alejandro Zambrano, ATFX Global Chief Market Strategist.

Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : The Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.
 
ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 April 3


Personal opinions today:

US initial jobless claims rose to 6.64 million last week from 3.3 million in the previous week. After the data, the Dow futures had jumped, because investors had already priced in before the announcement. However, in the face of the outbreak in the United States, business activity is facing a slowdown, the number of jobs and layoffs rose. The U.S. nonfarm payroll and the unemployment rate are likely to be over market expectations tonight, and it will be limited Dow futures gains. If Dow futures and the dollar fall, expect gold and silver prices to rise, the Japanese yen to become a safe haven and the USDJPY fall again.

Crude oil demand slowdown in the face of the global economic crisis. The United States and Russia Presidents agreed to cut output and were in talks with Saudi Arabia's oil group to cut output and keep prices stable. Crude Oil’s future for May delivery in the United States rose to a 20-day moving average of $27 after the news was confirmed, followed by profit unwinding before the European market close, as crude oil prices fell.

Today focus on the final reading of Europe's services PMI for March and Eurozone retail sales for February. Investors have expected which is weak data, with short Euro’s positions dominating the market. Investors also priced in weak U.S. jobs data tonight, which was bearish on Dow futures and global stocks in the short term, and bearish on the dollar. If the dollar fell, would be bullish on gold, silver price and the yen in the face of rising risk aversion, but bearish on crude oil.

[Important financial data and events to watch]
Note: * denotes importance

09:45 China's Caixin services PMI **
15:50 French services PMI final * *
15:55 German services PMI final * *
16:00 Eurozone services PMI final **
16:30 UK services PMI **
17:00 Eurozone retail sales ***
20:30 US unemployment rate * * *
20:30 US non-farm payrolls * * *
21:45 US Markit final services PMI * *
22:00 US ISM non-manufacturing PMI * * *

EURUSD
1.0875/1.0890 resistance
1.0820/1.0805 support

Economic data in Europe in March will be affected by the pandemic, with weak economic performance. Europe's final services PMI for March and Eurozone retail sales for February. The Euro fell as investors prepared ahead of the weak data. The Euro is expected to rise against the dollar after European data and the release of U.S. non-farm job data tonight. Technical analysis, 1.0820 or 1.0805 support, 20-hour average line resistance and rebound wave 23.6% resistance to 1.0875 and 1.0890.

GBPUSD
1.2440/1.2460 resistance
1.2320/1.2305 support

Eurozone and UK data were weak, with pound limited to a range of $1.2440 to $1.2460 resistance. Technically, GBPUSD resistance was reduced to 1.2460, from the fundamentals of the dominant trend, advised to watch tonight's US non-farm payroll results. If the U.S. jobs data is weaker than expected, the pound could see resistance at $1.2440 or $1.2460. The pound is expected to test support against the dollar ahead of Eurozone and UK data in the afternoon.

Australian dollar/US dollar
0.6090/0.6105 resistance
0.6030/0.6015 support

Investors are anticipating a rise in U.S. non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate in March tonight. They expect the Australian dollar to still be up against the U.S. dollar ahead of the U.S. data. In addition, the RBA will have an interest rate decision meeting next Tuesday, and investors may avoid buying the Australian dollar ahead of its policy meeting. Believe that the Australian and New Zealand dollars to maintain the range.

Dollar to Japanese yen
108.25/108.40 resistance
107.35/107.15 support

Dow futures and the Nikkei tend to lead dollar-yen movements and volatility. Investors can look to Dow futures and the Nikkei to catch the dollar's rise against the yen. Technically, the first support target is 106.40 if the dollar/yen correction in March is calculated at 50%. If U.S. data is very weak, U.S. jobs data will fall much more than expected tonight, dow futures and the dollar will extend their losses, and the dollar could test the aforementioned 106.40 support level against the yen. But for now, watch for 107.35 and 107.15 support.

US dollar/Canadian dollar
1.4255/1.4275 resistance
1.4065/1.4050 support level

Crude oil prices rose and fell, indirectly affecting the performance of the Canadian dollar. In this case, USDCAD continued to trade ranging between the 1.40 level and the 1.42 level. In addition, the U.S. data will also affect the U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar. Believe the USDCAD could test the 1.40 level ahead of the US non-farm payroll for March due tonight. But a subsequent drop in oil prices could send the U.S. dollar higher against the Canadian dollar.

US oil futures
24.95/25.35 resistance
21.05/20.65 support

As the global economy slows, demand for crude oil is slowing. The presidents of Russia and the United States have held talks on stabilizing oil prices, stressing the need to keep prices above $20. Believe that US oil future prices continue to maintain an important support level of $20. In the afternoon, the market continued to watch for oil group news, lifting U.S. oil futures, with an initial target of $26 - $27.

Gold
1620/1623 resistance
1583/1580 support

Gold and silver prices rose in recent days, as expected by this analysis, on expectations of weak data in Europe and the United States, as countries continued to expand in volume. Technically, gold has rebounded sharply after hitting $1,567, with large institutional investors buying gold at $1,580 and below, looking for the first level of resistance at $1,600 and above the first significant resistance at $1,613. The rally slowed after last night's high of $1,617. As has been the case in the past, speculators used expectations of U.S. jobs data to push up the gold and silver prices. Gold and silver prices are believed to have formally slowed in the wake of tonight's US non-farm payroll or US non-manufacturing PMI, with the recent rally likely to reverse.

Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
21485/21610 resistance
20755/20645 support

U.S. non-farm payrolls and non-manufacturing PMI in March release tonight are worth noting as expectations for the data are weak and Dow futures are expected to test lows first. If the golden rate estimation, the support is at 20755 and reference last week lowest 20645.

BTCUSD:
7000/ 7230 resistance
5650 / 5500 support

The federal reserve launches No limited QE program. Technically, the bitcoin price would rebound. The bitcoin price is looking for $7000 resistance. If it breaks $7000, the bitcoin price would test $7230 or approach to $10,000.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
 
For more analysis check out, please click the below link:
IFrame


ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:
  • AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA
  • ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC,
  • AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines,
  • AT Global Markets Intl Ltd is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) in Republic of Mauritius
 
ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 April 6


Personal opinions today:

US non-farm payrolls fell sharply in March, shedding 700,000 people and pushing the unemployment rate to 4.4%. The jobless claims jumped to a record high in the last two weeks, with the market already digesting the non-farm payrolls and not surprised investors. The U.S. dollar index rose to 100.84 after the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI beat market expectations in March, adding to investors' confidence in dollar assets. European and commodity currencies are downward. Later, Dow futures took advantage of U.S. data to beat expectations and the U.S. President's meeting with Russia and OPEC to discuss cutting output. Crude oil prices rose, driving U.S. Dow futures higher. Dow futures rose further after the Asian session opened, sending Asian stocks higher and limiting gold's gains today.

[Important financial data and events to watch]
Note: * denotes importance

14:00 German manufacturing orders in February *
15:00 German construction PMI in March* * *
16:30 Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index for April **
16:30 UK construction PMI in March* * *
22:00 US CB employment trends index for March * *

EURUSD
1.0860/1.0885 resistance
1.0770/1.0755 support

Eurozone economic data for March are expected to be weak due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. Eurozone and German data released today are expected to be weak and bearish for the Euro. On the 4 - hour chart technical analysis, the Euro extended its decline against the dollar, currently below 1.0830. If not recovered, it will look down 1.0770 and next-level support 1.0715. If break 1.0830, look up at 1.0860 or 1.0885 resistance.

The pound to the dollar
1.2290/1.2305 resistance
1.2195/1.2180 support

Eurozone and UK data were weak and the pound fell against the dollar. Technically, the resistance of pound to the dollar fell to 1.2305, believing that fundamentals are the dominant trend in the pound, any weak data in the European region, if disappointed market expectations, the pound may be looking at 1.2195 or 1.2180 support. Reference resistance levels 1.2290 and 1.2305.

Australian dollar/US dollar
0.6050/0.6065 resistance
0.5985/0.5975 support

Australia inflation rose on a monthly basis in March, while the Australian dollar rose early in Asia and indirectly boosted the New Zealand dollar. But the Australian dollar was limited ahead of tomorrow's RBA meeting. Believe before the policy, the Australian and New Zealand dollars remain in a tight range, waiting for the outcome of the policy and monetary policy.

Dollar to Japanese yen
109.10/109.25 resistance
108.35/108.15 support

Dow futures and the Nikkei tend to lead dollar-yen movements and volatility. Investors can look to Dow futures and the Nikkei to catch the dollar's rise against the yen. Technically, keep an eye on USDJPY with the 109.10 and 109.25 resistance levels. Dow futures and the Nikkei fell, looking down on the first support levels of 108.35 and 108.15.

US dollar/Canadian dollar
1.4275/1.4290 resistance
1.4165/1.4150 support level

The price of crude oil fluctuates recently, affect the Canadian dollar trend indirectly. Technically, the U.S. dollar is trading between $1.40 and $1.43 against the Canadian dollar. Markets focused on the United States, Russia, and OPEC negotiations. The meeting has been postponed to Thursday because of continuing differences in positions. With crude oil prices expected to adjust lower in the short term, the USDCAD could test resistance at $1.4275 or $1.4290.

US crude oil futures
27.85/28.05 resistance
25.05/24.85 support

Last week, the presidents of Russia and the United States discussed stabilizing oil prices. In addition, over the weekend, the two countries were discussing an agreement with OPEC to cut oil output and cut prices. Oil prices had rebounded sharply on the news, with U.S. crude oil futures trading as high as $29 above the $27 initial target of this analysis. But now that OPEC has postponed its meeting, US crude oil futures are likely to fall ahead of any good news. Conservative estimates put the price down to $25 or $24.

Spot gold
1620/1623 resistance
1608/1605 support

Speculators took advantage of weak U.S. jobs data to push up gold and silver prices. He believes the rally in gold and silver prices could slow or reverse, thanks to steady U.S. manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI. Technically pay attention to 1620 and 1623 resistance. If Dow futures continue to rise, spot gold could test $1,600. Initial target, 1608 or 1605 support.

Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
21950/22140 resistance
21295/21075 support

U.S. nonfarm payroll in March fell, bearish Dow futures. But manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI beat expectations in March, and Dow futures rebounded from their lows. If the adjusted wave estimation is used, the support is at 21295 and the resistance is at 21950 or 22140.

BTCUSD:
7000/ 7230 resistance
6050 / 5800 support

The federal reserve launches No limited QE program. Technically, the bitcoin price would rebound. The bitcoin price is looking for $7000 resistance. If it breaks $7000, the bitcoin price would test $7230 or approach to $10,000.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
 
ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 April 7


Personal opinions today:

OPEC and other oil producers discuss further cutting production and stabilizing prices as part of an expiring agreement. After last week's discussion, the next meeting was postponed to Thursday. Last night, some producers were willing to accept a collective agreement to cut output, but the Russian government accepted only the original plan. Separately, Saudi Arabia's oil producers are taking a tough line to force the United States into a membership agreement to cut output. Oil producers in Saudi Arabia delayed the release of crude prices of May until after Thursday's meeting, limited the crude oil future price at $28.

Crude oil futures prices rose amid talk that OPEC and other oil producers could eventually reach an agreement to cut output, helping to stave off the risk of oil companies defaulting or going bankrupt and bullish global stocks. Yesterday, the Dow futures index closed up 1627 points. But some of the money has flowed into the gold market because of U.S. fiscal and Treasury risks. Separately, gold and silver prices rose to near three-week highs ahead of the RBA’s decision on interest rates and an emergency meeting of Eurozone finance ministers. Gold rose above $1,644.6 to a high of nearly $1,674 and silver as high as $15.53.

Market forecasts for German industrial output for February, France trade figures for March and UK Halifax house price index for March were weaker than the previous month. The Euro was limited to gains of 1.0830 last night. In addition, the British prime minister infected with COVID - 19 appeared to be in critical condition, bearish pound, GBPUSD fells 100 points, as low as 1.2170. The above factors were bearish for the European currency yesterday. If the number of new confirmed cases of COVID 19 in Europe and the United States drops, it is believed that the European currency is expected to stabilize or rebound today.

[Important financial data and events to watch]
Note: * denotes importance

Eurozone finance ministers to hold an emergency meeting
Eurogroup video conference to be held * *
12:30 RBA releases monetary decision * * *
14:00 German industrial output in February * *
14:45 France trade account in March * *
15:30 UK Halifax house price index in March * *
1730 RBA President speech * * *
22:00 Canada Ivey PMI in March * *
22:00 US JOLTS job openings in February * *
24:00 EIA releases monthly short-term energy outlook * *

EURUSD
1.0860/1.0885 resistance
1.0770/1.0755 support

Eurozone economic data for March are expected to be weak due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. Eurozone and German data released today, investors expect weak, bearish Euro. On using of 4 - hour chart with technical analysis, the Euro extended its decline against the dollar, currently below 1.0830. If it fails to recover, it will remain at 1.0770 or 1.0715. If break 1.0830, look up at 1.0860 or 1.0885 resistance.

The pound to the dollar
1.2305/1.2320 resistance
1.2195/1.2180 support

Weak data in the Eurozone and the United Kingdom, the lack of significant signs of a decline in the outbreak in Europe, a bearish for pound. Combined with the British prime minister's infection with COVID - 19, the situation is in critical condition, further unnerved investors, the pound has fallen against the dollar. Technically, GBPUSD references resistance to 1.2305 and 1.2320 range. Believe in the fundamentals of the dominant, pound trend still continue to look down, 1.2195 or 1.2180 as reference support.

Australian dollar/US dollar
0.6125/0.6140 resistance
0.6075/0.6060 support

Australian inflation rose on a monthly basis in March, while the Australian dollar rose early in Asia and indirectly bullish the New Zealand dollar. The RBA raised interest rates today as investors saw little impact on the economy and labor market from the outbreak in Australia, with March job data still flat. Trust the RBA to keep monetary policy unchanged, New Zealand will not change monetary policy, to boost the Australian and New Zealand dollars. However, investors remained on the sidelines of the RBA’s monetary policy outlook after the policy meeting, and investors should watch for changes in the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

Dollar to Japanese yen
109.20/109.35 resistance
108.70/108.55 support

Dow futures and the Nikkei index rose, leading the dollar higher against the yen. Investors should continue to look to Dow futures and the Nikkei to catch the dollar rising and falling against the yen. Technically, keep an eye on USDJPY, 109.35 as reference resistance. If Dow futures and Nikkei fall, look for firstly support levels of 108.70 and 108.55. If big movement in Dow futures and the Nikkei, the references resistance and support levels would breakthrough.

US dollar/Canadian dollar
1.4175/1.4190 resistance
1.4065/1.4050 support level

Crude oil futures price fluctuations, indirect impact on the Canadian dollar. Technically, the USDCAD traded between the 1.40 and 1.43 levels. Any good news from OPEC would push the Canadian dollar higher. But Saudi Arabia's producers remain divided over U.S. participation in the deal and the meeting has been postponed until Thursday. In the short term crude oil future prices may adjust to declining, the USDCAD has an opportunity to test the 1.41 or 1.42 level.

US crude oil futures
28.55/28.85 resistance
25.40/25.10 support

The OPEC is discussing production cuts and price agreements with other oil producers has sparked a sharp rally in crude oil future prices, with U.S. crude oil futures trading above $29. But now that OPEC is postponing the meeting, it is believed that U.S. crude futures prices could adjust without any good news. Conservative estimates suggest US crude oil futures price could fall to $25 or $24.

Spot gold
1674/1676 resistance
1645/1642 support

Speculators took advantage of weak U.S. jobs data to push up gold and silver prices. Separately, gold and silver prices were pushed higher ahead of the RBA’s decision on interest rates and an emergency meeting of Eurozone finance ministers. If gold fails to break through $1676 resistance, the rally could slow. Keep an eye on the silver price trend, it would continue to follow the gold price.

Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
23140/23490 resistance
22245/21800 support

U.S. manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI beat expectations in March, and Dow futures rebounded. On top of that, Dow futures rallied more than 1,000 points as investors saw a slight easing of the U.S. pneumonia outbreak and hopes for an agreement at a meeting of oil-exporting countries. In the afternoon, investors think there is no light at the end of the tunnel on the pneumonia outbreak, the U.S. Easter holiday approaching, investors may make adjustments to stock trading arrangements. If the adjusted wave estimation is used, the important support is at 21800 and the important resistance is at 23490.

BTCUSD:
7560/ 7800 resistance
6850 / 6700 support

As mentioned here before, the federal reserve launches No limited QE program. Technically, the bitcoin price would rebound. The bitcoin price is looking for $7000 resistance. If break $7000, the bitcoin price would test $7230 or approach to $10,000. Earlier today, the bitcoin broke $7230. The next target would be $7800 resistance, then the further target at $10,000.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
 
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