ATFX Market Updates 2020

[Kelly Yeung]

ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 Mar 23

Personal opinions today:

Many countries in Europe and the United States have imposed restrictions on entry and exit, and many cities have restricted their residents from leaving their homes. Central Banks around the world have responded actively to the downside risks of the economy, and repeatedly launched measures to rescue the market and stimulate the economy. European countries are seriously affected, capital flows to the US Treasury bonds and the US dollar, the dollar index rose. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has announced its bond-buying program today ahead of its scheduled meeting on Wednesday. Now investors are waiting to see if Canada follows suit.

The global recession is severe, and Morgan Stanley, a big investment firm, expects the U.S. economy to plunge 30% in the second quarter. Over the weekend, US Congress voted on a new package of economic stimulus measures, facing the failure of negotiations between the two parties. Early in the morning in Asia, the DOW futures fell, triggering another circuit breaker. Gold climbed as high as $1,507 and silver followed suit, rising as high as $12.65. The dollar fell against the yen to 110.25 from 111.20. It is believed that for the outbreak and the economy, countries will announce new plans from time to time, please pay attention to the stock, gold and currency fluctuations.

[Important financial data and events to watch]
Note: * denotes importance

15:00 German import prices in February * *
16:00 Swiss current account in Q4 * *
20:30 Canada wholesale sales in January* *
20:30 US Chicago Fed national activity index for February * *
23:00 European consumer confidence index for March * *

EURUSD
1.0765/1.0780 resistance
1.0590/1.0570 support
With the European central bank's $750 billion bond-buying programs, investors see it as helpless for the European economy. Europe's outbreak and economic outlook are uncertain, European capital outflows into dollar assets, bearish euro. After breaking through 1.0855 support, the euro continued to lose momentum. Investors are on the lookout for the next level of support, 1.0570, and are more likely to test the 2017 low of 1.0500. Technically, it is recommended to refer to the euro/dollar 4-hour chart, keeping an eye on the 10 and 20 moving average trends and referring to resistance levels.

The pound to the dollar
1.1675/1.1695 resistance
1.1485/1.1465 support
The current outbreak, the British finance minister launched the rescue measures, still failed to rescue the British economy. British Prime Minister said a wider policy of separation could be considered, limiting the scope of residents' travel and contact with each other. Markets expect the Bank of England to roll out other fed measures at any time. Believe that the GBP/USD is likely to try lower levels, the initial target of 1.1485 or 1.1465 support. The first short-term resistance level for sterling against the dollar is 1.1695.

Australian dollar/US dollar
0.5855/0.5885 resistance
0.5535/0.5515 support
New cases of pneumonia rose in Australia as the Reserve Bank of Australia stepped up its program to buy government bonds, freeing up a $50 billion in liquidity, but stopped short of announcing other stimulus measures. Believe that the RBA release of funds, there are still follow-up measures to be launched, will continue to be bearish Australian dollar. Technically, the Australian dollar has seen 0.5515 support against the US dollar, the short - term outlook on the important resistance to 0.5885. Suggest that important resistance failed to break, the Australian dollar continued to test low against the US dollar.

Dollar to Japanese yen
111.15/111.25 resistance
109.45/109.35 support
Global central bank monetary and fiscal policy measures, investors believe that the Bank of Japan will follow. In Asian trading today, the USDJPY as tried last week 111.35 resistance failed. With global stocks falling, the dollar is expected to have another chance to test Friday's low of 109.35 yen.

US dollar/Canadian dollar
1.4545/1.4565 resistance
1.4360/1.4340 support level
The Canadian dollar rose after crude oil prices rebounded after a slump. Believe that the USDCAD continues to be dominated by oil prices. Technically, the U.S. dollar is trading at $1.43 to $1.45 against the Canadian dollar.

US crude oil futures
25.95/26.25 resistance
20.55/20.30 support
The start of quantitative easing by the federal reserve and a second effort by the U.S. government to stimulate the economy could help stabilize oil prices. But after Congress failed to pass a stimulus bill over the weekend, it is believed that oil prices could fall to $20 before buying is supported. U.S. crude futures could see the resistance of 25.95 or 26.25 if congress finally votes to pass the bill.

Gold
1507/1510 resistance
1474/1471 support
The United States announced emergency measures to increase the size of the repurchase of Treasury bonds and rescue funds. The federal reserve started quantitative easing and cut interest rates, investors estimated more bullish gold prices. Current estimates, global monetary policy is still to increase the intensity of easing measures, gold prices are expected to continue to rise. Technically, at the $1,450 level, there has been a lot of buying support and it is worth buying gold at the relevant level. Technically, short-term volatility can refer to $1474 or $1471 support and $1507 or $1510 resistance. Note that the recent volatility of gold prices, pay attention to money management.

Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
18905/19395 resistance
17730/17555 support
The outbreak affected investor confidence and corporate profits, but the fed's launch of quantitative easing failed to save the economy. But dow futures continued to fall after congress failed to pass a stimulus bill over the weekend. Keeping an eye out for signs of an easing of the pneumonia epidemic in Europe and the United States, and whether the U.S. Congress continues to vote on another stimulus bill, is key. If passed, it could provide a short-term boost to the stock market.

BTCUSD:
6550/ 6800 resistance
5650 / 5500 support
The federal reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 100 basis points and start a worth $700bn in the QE program. Technically, the bitcoin price would rebound. The bitcoin price is looking for $6550 or $6800 resistance.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 Mar 24

Personal opinions today:

Financial institutions assess that the global economy continues to slow down and that the global recession could worsen if the coronavirus outbreak continues. According to the financial institution's assessment, the US economy could fall by as much as 50% from its peak, unemployment could rise sharply, employment could fall by 30% and emerging markets in Europe and Asia are more likely to be severely affected.

In this regard, the US Congress continues to negotiate on the second round of the stimulus package, the current negotiations are indicated to narrow the gap. If passed, the bill could unlock about $1 trillion in government funding for economic stimulus measures. The failure to pass the funding bill led to further declines in Dow futures, which fell as much as 900 points last night. The dollar fell as safe-haven funds fled U.S. assets and European currencies received buying support. Some safe-haven assets flowed into commodity markets, with crude oil futures, spot gold, and silver all recording historic one-day rallies.

[Important financial data and events to watch]
Note: * denotes importance

G7 ministers video conference * * *
13:00 Japan leading index final value *
16:20 ECB President Christine Lagarde Speech ***
16:30 German manufacturing and services PMI * * *
17:00 Eurozone manufacturing and services PMI **
17:30 UK manufacturing and services PMI ***
17:30 Bank of England monetary policy decision * * *
19:00 UK CBI industrial order *
21:45 US Markit manufacturing and services PMI * * *
22:00 US new home sales * *
22:00 US Richmond Fed manufacturing index * *
The next day 04:30 US API crude stocks change * * *

EURUSD
1.0830/1.0840 resistance
1.0755/1.0735 support
Investors' confidence in U.S. dollar assets fell and money flowed into European currencies after the second stimulus package in congress failure. Technically, EURUSD’s 4-hourly chart, watch the 10 and 20 moving average trend breakout, testing the 1.0828 resistance. At 23.6% rebounded from lower, the resistance level is 1.0840. If 1.0840 resistance fails to break, watch for the support below the 10 and 20 moving averages, at 1.0755 and 1.0735 respectively. Fundamentals, watch for comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde and the outcome of the U.S. Congress on funding for a second stimulus package.

British pound to the dollar
1.1785/1.1805 resistance
1.1485/1.1465 support
The current coronavirus outbreak, the British finance minister launched the rescue measures, still failed to rescue the British economy. Prime minister said he might consider a broader quarantine policy that would limit the number of homes and contacts between residents. The Bank of England set interest rates on Thursday and is more likely to bring forward other measures to emulate the fed's massive market rescue. The pound yesterday fell short of a preliminary target of $1.1485 or $1.1465. The dollar fell as the U.S. Congress failed to pass a second stimulus package, pushing the short-term resistance level to 1.1695. If the dollar continues to fall, the pound could test resistance to $1.1785 or $1.1805.

Australian dollar/US dollar
0.5965/0.5985 resistance
0.5735/0.5715 support
The United States Congress failed to pass the second round of economic stimulus funding, the dollar fell, indirectly more Australian dollar. Technically, the Australian dollar has seen 0.5515 support against the US dollar, on the test of 0.5885 important resistance success. Another important resistance level of 0.5965 or 0.5985 is recommended. Investors must take note that any rebound in the dollar should congress succeed in funding a second stimulus package will cause the Australian and New Zealand dollars to fall.

Dollar to Japanese yen
111.15/111.25 resistance
109.70/109.60 support
Before the Asian session, the dollar had tried to 111.35 yen resistance again failed. With global stocks falling, the dollar is expected to have another chance to test Friday's low of 109.35 yen. At present, the dollar-yen with the global stock market volatility and lead the direction. Technically, you can refer to the above resistance and support. Investors must take note that the dollar is poised to bounce back as congress approves funding for a second stimulus package, with the greenback trading above 111.35 yen.

US dollar/Canadian dollar
1.4545/1.4565 resistance
1.4360/1.4340 support level
The Canadian dollar rose after crude oil prices rebounded after a slump. Believe that the short-term USDCAD trend continues to be dominated by oil prices. Technically, it keeps traded between $1.43 and $1.45.

US crude oil futures
25.95/26.25 resistance
22.55/22.30 support
Global central banks cut interest rates to stimulate the economy, the federal reserve and the launch of quantitative easing by a number of countries are expected to help stabilize oil prices, while the U.S. government is pushing for a second stimulus to boost the economy. But the failure of Congress to pass a stimulus bill over the weekend sent oil prices down to $20. Finally, also get buyback from support. U.S. crude oil futures could see the resistance of $25.95 or $26.25 and more likely $28 or $29 if congress finally votes to pass the bill.

Gold
1585/1590 resistance
1525/1520 support
The United States announced emergency measures to increase the size of the repurchase of Treasury bonds and rescue funds. The federal reserve started quantitative easing and cut interest rates, recently this analysis estimates bullish gold prices. Silver prices followed suit. Current estimates, global monetary policy is still to increase the intensity of easing measures, gold prices are expected to continue to rise. Technically, gold has rebounded sharply from the $1,450 level and is now trading at $1,590. Early estimates put the price at $1,520 if it does not break through $1,595. If Congress approves funding for a second stimulus package, gold could try $1,475.

Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
19395/19555 resistance
18440/18190 support
Dow futures hit new lows last night as the coronavirus outbreak and the second rescue fund bill negotiations failure. Investor confidence lost and corporate earnings fell, the fed's launch of quantitative easing failed to save the economy. Dow futures continued to weaken after congress failed to pass an appropriations bill to stimulate the economy. Watch closely for signs of an easing of the coronavirus in Europe and the United States, as well as whether the U.S. Congress continues to vote again on the stimulus bill and succeeds in passing it. If passed, it could boost stocks in the short term.

BTCUSD:
6800/ 7000 resistance
5850 / 5700 support
The federal reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 100 basis points and start a worth $700bn in the QE program. Technically, the bitcoin price would rebound. The bitcoin price is looking for $6550 success, next looking at $6800 or $7000 resistance.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

US manufacturing PMI may fall, but do the markets really care?



Next Friday, March 24, the prelim reading of US Manufacturing PMI will be released for March, as a continuation of the shocking state in the global economy, it is expected that we will witness further decline in the index reading. But to be more realistic, in the current circumstances, who cares?

The focus of the markets and investors around the world is now mainly on every news related mainly to Covid-19 virus. Tell me about the number of newly discovered cases, tell me about prevalence rates and outbreak areas, but do not talk to me about economic indicators now. naturally the markets will return to these traditional indicators later when the storm subsides.

The month of March recorded the largest acceleration in the outbreak of COVID-19 across the United States until now, to the extent that the US administration declared New York State a disaster area, in addition to the increasing cases in each state. And we are witnessing every day new developments in the situation constantly regarding government procedures and policies that clearly indicate to what extent that the performance of companies in such times is unstable.

In addition to the consumer confidence survey data, the release of the "Initial" PMI for March is expected to indicate the performance of the industrial sector and will provide insight into the extent and depth of the turmoil.

If we look at the services sector, which already showed signs of turmoil in February after the decrease in demand for services related to tourism in particular. Closures across Europe that have spilled over into the United States and the travel ban may exacerbate difficult demand conditions across both the manufacturing and services sectors in March, with many closing their doors and asking employees to work from home wherever possible.

Accordingly, it is expected that the index reading will witness a decline, but according to the depth and severity of these declines, the reaction of the markets will differ.

Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : The Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

US manufacturing PMI may fall, but do the markets really care?

Next Friday, March 24, the prelim reading of US Manufacturing PMI will be released for March, as a continuation of the shocking state in the global economy, it is expected that we will witness further decline in the index reading. But to be more realistic, in the current circumstances, who cares?

The focus of the markets and investors around the world is now mainly on every news related mainly to Covid-19 virus. Tell me about the number of newly discovered cases, tell me about prevalence rates and outbreak areas, but do not talk to me about economic indicators now. naturally the markets will return to these traditional indicators later when the storm subsides.

The month of March recorded the largest acceleration in the outbreak of COVID-19 across the United States until now, to the extent that the US administration declared New York State a disaster area, in addition to the increasing cases in each state. And we are witnessing every day new developments in the situation constantly regarding government procedures and policies that clearly indicate to what extent that the performance of companies in such times is unstable.

In addition to the consumer confidence survey data, the release of the "Initial" PMI for March is expected to indicate the performance of the industrial sector and will provide insight into the extent and depth of the turmoil.

If we look at the services sector, which already showed signs of turmoil in February after the decrease in demand for services related to tourism in particular. Closures across Europe that have spilled over into the United States and the travel ban may exacerbate difficult demand conditions across both the manufacturing and services sectors in March, with many closing their doors and asking employees to work from home wherever possible.

Accordingly, it is expected that the index reading will witness a decline, but according to the depth and severity of these declines, the reaction of the markets will differ.

Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : The Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

For more analysis check out, please click the below link:

ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:

• AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA
• ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC,
• AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines,
• AT Global Markets Intl Ltd is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) in Republic of Mauritius

 

[Kelly Yeung]

ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 Mar 25

Personal opinions today:

The federal reserve to launch an unlimited quantitative easing (QE) monetary policy. Dow futures rallied more than 2,000 points last night, their biggest one-day gain in 87 years. In response to the news, some safe-haven funds fled U.S. dollar assets, the dollar fell, European currencies received buying support. Under the unlimited QE, commodity prices rallied sharply. Crude oil futures bounced $5 off their lows, while spot gold and silver rallied sharply. Spot gold had risen to $1,638 and futures as high as $1,663. Spot silver rose as high as $14.72, up 26% from Wednesday's low of $11.63. Now, the Fed monetary easing, other countries are expected to follow suit, with the Bank of England meeting tomorrow night and the Swiss national bank's quarterly report and the Bank of Canada holding a two-day financial service meeting from tonight. The British pound, the Swiss franc, and the Canadian dollar may face downward pressure as investors watch central bank policy adjust accordingly, the euro may fall.

Gold and silver prices rose, though, in anticipation of a massive monetary easing by the Fed. But the rally in gold and silver prices is expected to stall as investors consider selling gold and silver for higher-yielding, lower-value quality stocks. As a result, the federal reserve is more likely to introduce an unlimited amount of money if congress passes the bailout fund. When equity markets rebound, gold and silver prices are likely to fall. However, under the global easing policy, crude oil prices are expected to try again $28-29 dollars.

[Important financial data and events to watch]
Note: * denotes importance

17:00 Germany IFO business climate index in march * * *
17:00 Swiss ZEW investor confidence index in march * *
17:30 UK CPI & RPI in February * * *
19:00 UK CBI retail sales spread in March *
20:30 US durable goods orders in February* * *
21:00 US FHFA house price index in January* * *
22:00 SNB quarterly report * *
22:30 EIA crude oil inventory change **
Bank of Canada financial services meeting ***

EURUSD
1.0850/1.0880 resistance
1.0735/1.0705 support
Investors' confidence in dollar assets fell and some flowed into European currencies after talks broke down in congress over funding for a second stimulus package. Technically, the Euro/dollar’s 4-hour chart calculates a 23.6% rebound in the golden ratio, after breaking through resistance at 1.0840. The euro rose as high as 1.0888 against the dollar after ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks. But now that Europe is on edge and the economic slowdown is intensifying, watch out for the Euro’s fall. It is recommended to bet against the Euro before breaking resistance at 1.09. Breakthrough resistance and look at the 1.11 level.

British pound to the dollar
1.1785/1.1805 resistance
1.1685/1.1665 support
The current outbreak, the British finance minister launched the rescue measures, still failed to rescue the British economy. British Prime Minister said he might consider a broader quarantine policy. Technically, the GBP/USD had a 1.1805 resistance. If the fundamentals are the bearish pound, technical moves beyond the 1.1665 support level, next to 1.15 or 1.14 level.

Australian dollar/US dollar
0.5985/0.6005 resistance
0.5835/0.5815 support
The United States Congress failed to pass the second round of economic stimulus funding, the dollar fell, indirectly more Australian dollar. Technically, the Australian dollar broke through the $0.5885 important resistance. Another important resistance level of 0.5985 was recommended yesterday. If the AUDUSD breaks the 0.6005 resistance, it could be test 0.6070. On the other hand, investors must take note that if the U.S. congress succeeds in appropriating a second stimulus package, any rebound in the U.S. dollar will cause the Australian and New Zealand dollars to fall.

Dollar to Japanese yen
111.35/111.55 resistance
110.35/110.15 support
The dollar/yen fluctuates with the global stock market and leads the trend direction. Technically, you can also track the performance of the USDJPY against the global stock market. Investors must take note that the dollar is poised for a bounce as congress approves funding for a second stimulus package, with the greenback trading above 111.35 or 111.55 yen. Support bit can refer to the recent 110.35 to 110.15 support bit range.

US dollar/Canadian dollar
1.4545/1.4565 resistance
1.4360/1.4340 support level
The Canadian dollar rose after crude oil prices rebounded after a slump. Believe that the USDCAD trend continues to be dominated by crude oil prices. Technically, the USDCAD traded between $1.43 and $1.45.

US crude oil futures
25.95/26.25 resistance
23.55/23.30 support
Global central banks cut interest rates to stimulate the economy, the federal reserve and other countries jointly launched quantitative easing, which is expected to help stabilize oil prices, while the U.S. government may push second stimulus measures, crude oil can receive buying support. Short-term U.S. crude oil futures are expected to be supported at $23, with resistance at $25.95 or $26.25 and more likely at $28 or $29.

Gold
1638/1642 resistance
1585/1581 support
The United States announced emergency measures to increase the size of the repurchase of Treasury bonds and rescue funds. The fed started volume easing and rate cuts, recently estimated in this analysis, these factors are bullish gold prices. Silver, which tends to follow gold, has risen in recent days. Global monetary policy is still expected to be more accommodative, and gold prices are expected to come under pressure until they reach $1,650. Please pay attention to the gold price and silver price correction together, technically target for the gold price to be $1585 or $1581 support.

Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
21390/21630 resistance
20110/19915 support
Dow futures hit new lows last night as the outbreak hit investor confidence and corporate earnings. But the fed's plan to launch unlimited quantitative easing to rescue the economy also boosted equity markets. If the U.S. Congress passes an appropriations bill to stimulate the economy, it could continue to boost the stock market in the short term, with resistance at 21,630 just referencing the first major resistance level for now.

BTCUSD:
6800/ 7000 resistance
5850 / 5700 support
The federal reserve launches No limited QE program. Technically, the bitcoin price would rebound. The bitcoin price is looking for $6800 or $7000 resistance. Then, if it breaks $7000, the bitcoin price would test $10,000.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

For more analysis check out, please click the below link:

ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:

• AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA
• ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC,
• AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines,
• AT Global Markets Intl Ltd is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) in Republic of Mauritius

 

[Kelly Yeung]

For more analysis check out, please click the below link:

ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:

• AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA
• ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC,
• AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines,
• AT Global Markets Intl Ltd is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) in Republic of Mauritius

 

[Kelly Yeung]

ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 Mar 26

Personal opinions today:

The U.S. Congress is awaiting a final vote on the second round of stimulus talks. Investors believe a deal could be reached soon, and about $2 trillion in stimulus spending is about to kick in. Dow futures continued to rise last night, peaking at more than 1,000 points. Just before the closing bell, Dow futures pared gains, falling from a high of 22018 to close at 21,151. Due to the outbreak in Europe and the United States, a number of restrictions on residents stay at home. Europe and the United States’ economic slowdown is looking serious. Markets are forecasting a jump up in jobless claims. Investors were cautious, with safe-haven flows continuing to flow out of dollar assets and buying European currencies. In addition, some haven assets into the commodity market. Last night, crude oil futures prices, spot gold and silver prices recorded slight gains, but the high met the unwinding, prices fell a bit.

Gold and silver prices rose from yesterday's estimates, but gains will be held back by expectations of massive monetary easing by the U.S. government, as investors consider selling gold and silver at high prices and investing in quality stocks with higher risk returns. So yesterday, after congress passed the bailout fund, Dow futures rebounded and gold and silver prices began to retreat from their highs. Crude oil futures held above the $22 support level, repeatedly testing $25.68.

Today's European markets will focus on Germany's Gfk consumer confidence index, the UK's retail sales, and the ECB economic bulletin. Around the opening of the US market, the Bank of England released the interest rate decision and minutes of the meeting, the US jobless claims and the US real GDP final in Q4. In the market, the Bank of England interest rate decision and meeting minutes and the United States initial jobless claims, It could make the currency market and gold prices more volatile, investors should pay attention.

[Important financial data and events to watch]
Note: * denotes importance

15:00 Germany Gfk consumer confidence index * *
15:00 UK retail sales * *
17:00 ECB economic bulletin * * *
17:00 Switzerland KOF economic outlook *
17:30 UK retail sales * * *
20:00 Bank of England interest rate decision and minutes * * *
20:30 US jobless claims * * *
20:30 US real GDP final in Q4 * * *
20:30 US real personal-consumption expenditure* *
20:30 US core PCE price index final in Q4* *
21:30 Fed official Bullard speech * *

EURUSD
1.0960/1.0980 resistance
1.0835/1.0815 support
Investors' confidence fell in dollar assets and capital flowed into European currencies. In early Asian trading yesterday, the Euro/dollar broke 1.0888 resistance, up to 1.0932. Technically, the Euro/dollar 4-hour chart calculates resistance at 1.0960 as a 38.2% rebound in the golden ratio and it could test last week's high of 1.0980. The Euro was expected to limit gains to 1.0935 ahead of Germany Gfk consumer confidence index and the ECB economic bulletin. It is more likely to test lower before the Bank of England releases its interest rate decision and minutes.

The pound to the dollar
1.1925/1.1960 resistance
1.1785/1.1735 support
The Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates this evening. The prime minister and the chancellor of the exchequer have said they will bring forward a massive rescue package, which is a bearish for pound. Technically, the GBP/USD has tried 1.1960 resistance. However, from the fundamentals of bearish on pound, the technical trend may reverse, if below the 1.1735 support level, may try the 1.16 level.

Australian dollar/US dollar
0.5985/0.6005 resistance
0.5835/0.5815 support
The United States Congress failed to pass the second round of economic stimulus funding, the dollar fell, indirectly bullish on Australian dollar. Technically, the AUDUSD had traded as high as 0.6075 against the U.S. dollar, above its peak a week ago. In the short term today, AUDUSD is estimated to be subject to 0.6005 resistance, looking down on 0.5815 support. In the evening, the U.S. reported jobless claims and the final reading on real GDP in Q4. If the data is very weak, the US dollar will fall, the Australian and New Zealand dollars are expected to rise, test upper resistance.

Dollar to Japanese yen
111.35/111.55 resistance
110.35/110.15 support
USDJPY fluctuates with the global stock market and leads the trend direction. Technically, you can also track the performance of the USDJPY against the global stock market. Dow futures rallied sharply after congress approved funding for a second stimulus package, with the dollar trading at 111.55 yen. Dow futures and Nikkei fell, with the dollar testing support in the 110.35 to 110.15 range against the Japanese yen. Key data out of us tonight, if Dow futures fall, dollar/yen to follow the trend, the dollar/yen is expected to test the 109 level.

US dollar/Canadian dollar
1.4355/1.4395 resistance
1.4185/1.4165 support level
The Canadian dollar rose in line with oil prices as crude prices rebounded after a slump. Believe that the short-term USDCAD trend continues to be dominated by oil prices. Technically, crude oil prices are still estimated to have failed to break above $26, with the dollar halting its decline against the Canadian dollar at $1.41. In addition, important data from the United States tonight, if the weak data causes the dollar to fall, the U.S. dollar can try the 1.41 level against the Canadian dollar, while the U.S. dollar can try the 1.43 to 1.44 level against the Canadian dollar.

US crude oil futures
25.95/26.25 resistance
23.55/23.30 support
OPEC and other oil production group countries, there is no other important news to announce in the short term. The next OPEC and oil-producing countries’ meeting could be as soon as in May. We believe there is buying support in the short term for U.S. crude between $23 and $22, after which we could see resistance above $25.95 or $26.25 and above $28 or $29 above $26.25. Key US data tonight, it could lead to a bottom of $23.30 or a key support level of $22 if the data is weak.

Gold
1620/1624 resistance
1585/1581 support
The United States announced emergency measures to increase the size of the repurchase of Treasury bonds and rescue funds. The federal reserve started to liberalize and cut interest rates. This recent analysis estimates that these factors used to favor gold and silver prices. Now that the latest estimates of the global central bank monetary policy to increase the intensity of the easing measures are nearly completed, gold prices are expected to downward. Please note that the gold prices and silver prices together with the adjustment down. Preliminary estimates of gold prices adjusted to $1585 or $1581 support. Silver is estimated to be limited to 10-hour average resistance at $14.35, with initial support at $13.98 and $13.78.

Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
21945/22135 resistance
20285/20110 support
In Europe and the United States, where the coronavirus outbreak has dented investor confidence and corporate earnings, Dow futures rallied yesterday on the back of the U.S. Congress 'passage of an appropriations bill to stimulate the economy, testing 22,000 resistance after breaching 21630. The current estimate is that the outbreak has not abated, the Dow futures rebound is limited, more likely to test the 20,000 level.

BTCUSD:
6800/ 7000 resistance
5850 / 5700 support
The federal reserve launches No limited QE program. Technically, the bitcoin price would rebound. The bitcoin price is looking for $6800 or $7000 resistance. Then, if it breaks $7000, the bitcoin price would test $10,000.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices

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