ATFX Market Updates 2020

[Kelly Yeung]

For more analysis check out, please click the below link:

ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:

• AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA
• ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC,
• AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines,
• AT Global Markets Intl Ltd is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) in Republic of Mauritius

 

[Kelly Yeung]

ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 Mar 27

Personal opinions today:

The G20 meeting last night, all agreed to contribute a total of $500 million to save the economic capital, coupled with the federal reserve to launch an unlimited amount. Tonight, the U.S. House of Representatives would approve the $2 trillion bailouts, boost U.S. stocks rose for a third straight day. However, US data weakening, the dollar assets outflow, the US index fell, gold prices rose. Oil prices fell by an expected slowdown in demand.

Today's market focus on the U.S. February core PCE price index and the Michigan consumer confidence index final value, believe that the currency and gold prices more volatile, please pay attention.

[Important financial data and events to watch]
Note: * denotes importance

15:00 UK house price index in March *
15:45 French consumer confidence in March * *
20:30 US personal spending in February * *
20:30 US core PCE price index in February * *
22:00 US Michigan consumer confidence index final * * *
Fitch publishes U.K. sovereign credit rating * * *

EURUSD
1.1065/1.1090 resistance
1.0965/1.0940 support
The federal reserve unlimited QE, G20
jointly launched anti-epidemic funds, investors’ risk aversion improved. US jobless claims rose sharply, as investors fretted about the U.S. economy and safe-haven flows out of dollar bonds sent the dollar lower, while the Euro rose. Separately, the Bank of England remains interest rates unchanged and refrained from further easing. Technically, the Euro/dollar 4-hour chart, the trend is testing the golden ratio rebound 50% resistance level 1.1065. If EURUSD breaks the 1.1065 and 1.1090 resistance levels, the Euro/dollar will look up to the 61.8% resistance level of the golden ratio rebound at 1.1165. Please keep an eye on the U.S. core PCE price index and the final reading of the Michigan consumer sentiment index final tonight. The dollar's decline is likely to widen in anticipation of sharply weaker U.S. data, which could push the Euro up to the $1.11 level and test resistance at $1.1165.

The British pound to the dollar
1.2285/1.2305 resistance
1.2090/1.2070 support
Earlier, the Bank of England cut interest rates. The pound was supported by investors last night when the Bank of England kept interest rates on hold and stopped short of announcing any other big emergency fund or QE. Separately, the dollar fell and the pound rebounded. Technically, GBPUSD broke 1.2090 resistance, further testing the key 1.22 level. Tonight, the U.S. releases its core PCE price index and the Michigan consumer sentiment index. The dollar's fall is likely to widen in anticipation of sharply weaker U.S. data, which could lead to the pound hitting $1.2285 and $1.2305.

Australian dollar/US dollar
0.6145/0.6185 resistance
0.6025/0.5985 support
The dollar fell, indirectly bullish Australian dollar. Technically, the Australian dollar against the US dollar breaks rebound wave 50%, 0.6095 resistance, looking ahead reference resistance 0.6145 and 0.6185. Tonight, the U.S. releases its core PCE price index and the Michigan consumer sentiment index. The dollar's decline is likely to widen in anticipation of sharply weaker U.S. data, which could see the Australian dollar testing the higher resistance.

Dollar to Japanese yen
109.70/109.90 resistance
108.00/107.70 support
Risk aversion changed, the dollar fell, USDJPY fell. In early Asian trading, Dow futures and the Nikkei adjusted the gains, while USDJPY lower. Dow futures and the Nikkei fell, with the dollar testing support at 107.70. Key data from the US tonight, if Dow futures continue to fall and the dollar/yen follows the trend, the chances of the dollar/yen trading below the 107 level could increase.

US dollar/Canadian dollar
1.4175/1.4195 resistance
1.4005/1.3985 support level
Weaker U.S. data last night sent the U.S. dollar lower, allowing it to trade at $1.41 against the Canadian dollar and below $1.40. Tonight, the U.S. releases its core PCE price index and the Michigan consumer sentiment index. In anticipation of sharply weaker U.S. data, the dollar's decline is likely to widen, USDCAD would test support at $1.3985. As the downward trend in crude oil prices is likely to continue, the Canadian dollar is expected to see limited gains, more likely as oil prices fall, with the U.S. dollar trading at $1.41 to $1.42.

US crude oil futures
24.95/25.25 resistance
22.55/22.30 support
No news from OPEC. The next OPEC and oil group meeting is expected to take place as soon as in May. We believe there is buying support in the short term for U.S. crude between $23 and $22, after which we could see resistance above $25.95 or $26.25 and above $28 or $29 above $26.25. If U.S. data is weak tonight, the oil will test key support at $22.

Gold
1639/1642 resistance
1600/1597 support
The G20 meeting last night agreed to provide a total of $500 million to rescue the economy, and the federal reserve introduced unlimited funds, the U.S. jobless claims rose sharply, prompting gold prices to rise. But global stock markets rebounded on central bank rescue measures, limiting gold's gains. Gold and Silver prices are now expected to downward. Preliminary estimates the gold price to test at $1,596. Silver was capped at $14.65 resistance and looked down on support at $13.98.

Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
22375/22665 resistance
21950/21625 support
Global central bank rescue measures and broad monetary policy, Dow futures last night tested 22665 resistance. But investors worried that the coronavirus outbreak was not abating in the United States and Europe, and Dow futures had limited gains. If U.S. consumer data is weak tonight, Dow futures could test the 21000 levels. Add to that the possibility of weekend unwinding on Friday and Dow futures have a chance to fall.

BTCUSD:
6800/ 7000 resistance
5850 / 5700 support
The federal reserve launches No limited QE program. Technically, the bitcoin price would rebound. The bitcoin price is looking for $6800 or $7000 resistance. Then, if it breaks $7000, the bitcoin price would test $10,000.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

For more analysis check out, please click the below link:

ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:

• AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA
• ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC,
• AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines,
• AT Global Markets Intl Ltd is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) in Republic of Mauritius

 

[Kelly Yeung]

For more analysis check out, please click the below link:

ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:

• AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA
• ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC,
• AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines,
• AT Global Markets Intl Ltd is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) in Republic of Mauritius

 

[Kelly Yeung]

The stock markets have been suggesting it for a while, and that is probably why they ignored the latest PMI figures from the US and Euro area. A two trillion USD fiscal stimulus is also helping the mood amongst investors.

On March 24, we received a comprehensive update on the economic situation via the US and Euro area PMIs, and the situation is not good. The Euro area PMI composite dropped to 31.4 from 51.6, and lower than the 38.8 projected, while the US Markit PMI composite declined to 40 from 49.6. However, both the manufacturing sectors in the US and Europe performed better than expected. In the US, the drop was minimal, and we saw a decline to 49.2 from 50.7.

The most significant losses occurred in the service sectors, given the shutdown of bars, restaurants, hotels, flights, gyms, and more. The drops in the PMIs are also suggesting that job losses are increasing very fast in the US, with losses at 2009 levels, according to Markit, the producer of the report. For this week’s initial jobless figures, economists anticipate that one million people applied for unemployment benefits.

Markit is also reporting that the drop in the PMI suggests that the US is contracting by 5% annualized. In Europe, the PMI indicates that the economy will contract by 2% in the first quarter.

Despite the weak figures, the Dow Jones and DAX index was up by 13.88%, and 20% from their yearly lows at the time of writing. One explanation is that the stock markets have already dropped aggressively and effectively pricing in the weak figures. Also, central banks and governments worldwide have been supporting the economy, and people in these difficult times.

What’s next?
As lockdowns have been extended in Europe, likely, the next PMI reading will also be bad. However, the stock markets are forward-looking, and I suspect that they will be more interested to see what will happen with the development of Covid-19, and how the Chinese economy is doing, for clues to what may happen in Europe and USA, following the lockdown.

The next China PMI from Markit will be published on April 1, and it will probably be too early to see any improvements, however, if we see a bounce in the index, then this could spur stock markets higher.

China had a total of 81,218 coronavirus cases, but the latest update shows that they only have 4287 active cases, a significant improvement. Also, median intercity travel in the 50 biggest cities was down by 18% from the pre-lunar New Year, showing that there is a way out of this crisis.

In Italy, the situation has also improved, with the daily percentage growth rate dropped to single figures in the last two days. As factories are now closed in Italy, and they extended the lockdown with a few more weeks, we could see people returning to work soon, as they have in China. The big issue for traders is if the lockdown will have secondary effects as weak firms go bust on the lockdown, and how long the lockdown in the US and Europe will persist.


Analysis by Alejandro Zambrano, ATFX Global Chief Market Strategist


Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : The Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 Mar 30

Personal opinions today:

The U.S. House of Representatives passed more than $2 trillion emergency fund bill, and the US President signed the bill into law, which had boosted global stocks. But U.S. economic and job data were weak, and investment confidence in dollar assets fell. The dollar index fell, while European currencies, commodity currencies and gold prices rose. The Michigan consumer sentiment index fell in March amid expectations of a slowdown in crude oil demand and a drop in U.S. futures prices. U.S. crude oil futures, which had dipped as low as $21.65, continued to trade below the 20-hour moving average.

In Europe today, the market is focusing on the UK consumer credit in February, the Eurozone industrial and economic sentiment index in March and the Eurozone consumer confidence index in March, and the German consumer price index in March. In addition, this week's U.S. data forecast is weak, especially the ADP and non-farm payroll. Investors are still likely to see declines in the dollar index and U.S. stocks ahead of Wednesday's ADP jobs data release. European currencies, commodity currencies, and gold and silver prices have a chance to rise. Instead, crude oil still has a chance to fall, testing a key $20 support level.

[Important financial data and events to watch]
Note: * denotes importance

15:00 Swiss KOF economic leading indicator *
16:30 UK February consumer credit * *
17:00 Eurozone industrial and economic sentiment index ***
17:00 Eurozone consumer confidence index final in March ***
20:00 German CPI in March * * *
22:00 US February existing home sales index * *
22:30 US Dallas fed's index of business activity **
Next day 05:00 New Zealand financial statement * *
Next day 06:30 RBA deputy governor a speech * *

EURUSD
1.1165/1.1180 resistance
1.1065/1.1045 support
Last week, the US jobless claims rose sharply, amid expectations that a weak report on the U.S. ADP and non-farm payroll would bearish US consumer spending. Safe-haven flows out of the dollar and dollar-country bonds sent the dollar down and the Euro up against the dollar. Separately, the Bank of England remains interest rates and refrained from further easing, the British pound rebounded. The Euro rose in line with the British pound. But by the end of the week, some investors had liquidated their positions, and the Euro’s gains had narrowed. Technically, in the Euro/dollar 4-hour chart, the trend is testing rebound 50% resistance level 1.1065, which is now one of the support levels. On the upside, Euro/dollar resistance was at 1.1165 and 1.1180

The British pound to the dollar
1.2485/1.2515 resistance
1.2335/1.2305 support
Last week, many factors boosted the pound sharply. Ahead of this week's US jobs data, believe the dollar fell, bullish British pounds. Technically, the pound continued to maintain a 4 - hour moving average. If the British pound/USD remains above support at $1.2305, it would believe that the pound would test the resistance at $1.2515 at 61.8% rebound. If it breaks through the resistance level, it could test the next level to 1.2730.

Australian dollar/US dollar
0.6210/0.6230 resistance
0.6115/0.6095 support
US dollar fell, bullish the Australian dollar. Technically, the Australian dollar against the US dollar breaks 50% rebound at 0.6095 resistance level, has been on the test next resistance at 0.6185. With weak U.S. economic and job data expected this week, the dollar's decline is likely to widen, the AUDUSD would test the resistance at 0.6230.

Dollar to Japanese yen
108.00/108.30 resistance
106.75/106.45 support
Dow futures and the Nikkei fell, while the dollar followed the yen lower. The US jobless claims rose sharply, the Michigan consumer confidence index fell in March, investors estimated weak U.S. economic and job data, dollar assets and the dollar fell, and the dollar broke through support against the yen at 107.70. Believe, if Dow futures continue to fall, the dollar/yen below the test 106 level. Technically, the adjusted wave 50% which is 106.40 and the next support level is 105.20.

US dollar/Canadian dollar
1.4175/1.4195 resistance
1.4005/1.3985 support level
Last week, the U.S. dollar fell on weak data from the United States, with USDCAD successfully testing the $1.40 mark, which had seen $1.3925 lowest. With weak U.S. jobs data expected this week, the dollar's decline is likely to widen and the USDCAD could test further support at 1.39 level again. It is worth noting, however, that the downward trend in crude oil prices is likely to continue, with the Canadian dollar expected to see limited gains and more likely to fall with oil prices, with the U.S. dollar still having an opportunity to test the $1.41 level against the Canadian dollar.

US crude oil futures
23.10/23.55 resistance
20.80/20.20 support
As global crude oil demand slows, Saudi oil producers are in no mood to off the price cuts, and the price of crude continues to limit $25 resistance. U.S. crude futures are currently estimated to be between $22 and $20 with buying support. But crude oil prices are likely to fall further this week on expectations of weak U.S. PMI and job data. Long position investors are advised to stay on the sidelines, waiting for the release of data this week, test the lower crude oil prices.

Gold
1639/1642 resistance
1608/1605 support
The federal reserve introduced unlimited funds and the jobless claims rose sharply. The coronavirus outbreak in the United States, more than in Europe and Asia. For some time to come, U.S. PMI, job data and other consumption data are expected to be weak, and the federal reserve has added other measures, which will affect the opportunity for the dollar to fall and may stimulate the gold price to rise. At present, it is recommended to watch the price of gold and silver adjust down together. Early estimates suggest gold prices tried to adjust earlier this week, testing support around $1,600. Silver also moved in sync with gold, watch out for a correction to 38.2% support at $13.56.

Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
21625/21950 resistance
20755/20435 support
Despite most of the central bank bailouts and monetary easing around the world, the outbreak is on the rise in the United States. Dow futures fell as investors continued to bet against the outlook for the economy and corporate earnings. Investors continue to worry that the coronavirus outbreak has not abated in the United States and Europe, believing that Dow futures have limited recovery. Plus, expectations for weak U.S. jobs data this week, note that Dow futures continue to test lows. If the adjusted wave estimation is used, 20755 and 20435 are the initial technical support levels.

BTCUSD:
6800/ 7000 resistance
5700 / 5550 support
The federal reserve launches No limited QE program. Technically, the bitcoin price would rebound. The bitcoin price is looking for $6800 or $7000 resistance. If break $7000, the bitcoin price would test $10,000.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 Mar 31

Personal opinions today:

Japan's retail sales rose at an annual rate in February and the unemployment rate was flat. China's official manufacturing PMI over expect, reached 52 in March, higher than previous readings. Dow futures and Asian stocks rose. Stocks rose at the start of trading in Asia as risk aversion cooled, the dollar rose against the yen and gold and silver prices fell. Before the Chinese data, the Australian and New Zealand dollars had fallen, then rebounded. Separately, gold and silver were supported at $1,610 and $13.9 respectively. Last night, U.S. crude oil futures fell as low as $19.25 then rebounded. US Oil prices held up as China's official manufacturing sector PMI rose in March. For now, investors are watching the U.S. Chicago PMI for March and U.S. API crude inventories.

During the European session today, the focus will be on the German unemployment rate and Eurozone CPI data for March. The consensus forecast for a decline in European data on expectations that the data would be affected by the outbreak limited gains in European currencies, which are more likely to be bearish ahead of the release. But the market is more expecting a weak U.S. ADP payrolls data tomorrow, and investors are still likely to bet against the dollar index and U.S. stocks ahead of ADP and non-farm payroll. European currencies, commodity currencies, and gold and silver prices will have a chance to rise. Crude oil price still has a chance to fall, testing key support levels of $19 to $18.

[Important financial data and events to watch]
Note: * denotes importance

14:00 UK Q4 GDP final* *
4:00 UK Q4 current account *
14:30 Swiss retail sales in February * *
14:45 France March CPI monthly rate * *
15:55 German unemployment rate * * *
17:00 Eurozone March CPI***
20:30 Canada January GDP * * *
21:45 US Chicago PMI in March ***
22:00 US CB consumer confidence index for March *
Next day 04:30 US API crude stocks change * * *

EURUSD
1.1060/1.1080 resistance
1.0965/1.0945 support
Investors believe the coronavirus spread across Europe. The Euro fell against the dollar in 4 hours on expectations of a decline in European data today. Now, 1.0965 is one of the important support levels, the reference 10 moving average resistance is 1.1060. With the release of the U.S. jobs report for March starting tomorrow, the bearish dollar is expected to help the bullish euro/dollar view, believing that resistance at 1.1060 has a chance to break back above the 1.11 level.

The British pound to the dollar
1.2395/1.2415 resistance
1.2285/1.2265 support
Investors believe the economic data drop in Europe today, the euro and pound also fell against the dollar. In the 4-hour chart, breaking above the 10 moving average. Pound dollar below test 20 moving average support level 1.2285. After today's European session, investors are expected to look ahead to tomorrow's U.S. jobs report.

Australian dollar/US dollar
0.6185/0.6200 resistance
0.6095/0.6075 support
The Australian dollar was trading at $0.6072 today ahead of the release of China's official manufacturing PMI for March. As the data beat market expectations led the Australian dollar to recoup losses against the US dollar expectations. It is believed that investors are expecting weak U.S. economic and employment data this week, and the U.S. dollar may extend its decline, which could see the Australian dollar test a rally against the U.S. dollar. In the short-term, the AUDUSD movement is likely to be limited to 0.6200 resistance.

Dollar to Japanese yen
108.75/108.90 resistance
107.80/107.65 support
Dow futures and the Nikkei led the dollar to remain unchanged against the yen. Believe that if Dow futures and the Nikkei are likely to fall, the dollar/yen could test the 107 level. Technically, 50% of the adjusted wave is 106.40, and the lower support level is 105.20. Significant resistance is at 109.22.

US dollar/Canadian dollar
1.4255/1.4275 resistance
1.4145/1.4125 support level
Crude oil prices continue to decline trend, bearish Canadian dollar. The U.S. dollar rose to 1.41 against the Canadian dollar as crude oil prices fell. If crude continues to fall, short-term support for the U.S. dollar/Canadian dollar could be at $1.4145 or $1.4125.

US crude oil futures
24.10/24.30 resistance
19.55/19.35 support
As global oil demand slows, Saudi oil producers are in no intention to call off the price cuts, and the price of crude continues to limit $25 resistance. Weak expectations for U.S. PMI and ADP private payrolls data, which are expected tomorrow, suggest that continued efforts to limit the rise in crude oil prices could also test another $19 low. Long-term investors are advised to stay on the sidelines as they test low crude prices ahead of this week's European and U.S. data releases.

Gold
1630/1633 resistance
1608/1605 support
The federal reserve introduced unlimited funds and US jobless claims rose sharply. The coronavirus outbreak is expected to be more severe in the United States than in Europe and Asia. Tomorrow's weak U.S. PMI and ADP private payrolls data for March, as well as expectations for further consumption data, could push the dollar lower and the gold price would higher. For now, watch for gold and silver prices to adjust together. Preliminary estimates put the gold price at $1,610 or below. Silver tends to move in step with gold, keeping an eye out for support at $1,608 and $13.56.

Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
22550/22665 resistance
21610/21295 support
Dow futures fell as investors continued to bet against the outlook for the economy and corporate earnings. Investors continue to worry about the spread of the coronavirus in Europe and the United States, believing Dow futures have limited strength to rebound. In addition, the U.S. manufacturing PMI and ADP payroll are expected to be weak tomorrow, noting that Dow futures may fall. If the adjusted wave estimation, 20755 and 20435 are the first support levels. Short term support levels 21610 and 21295.

BTCUSD:
6800/ 7000 resistance
5700 / 5550 support
The federal reserve launches No limited QE program. Technically, the bitcoin price would rebound. The bitcoin price is looking for $6800 or $7000 resistance. If it breaks $7000, the bitcoin price would test $10,000.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

For more analysis check out, please click the below link:



ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:

• AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA
• ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC,
• AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines,
• AT Global Markets Intl Ltd is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) in Republic of Mauritius

 

[Kelly Yeung]

ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 April 1

Personal opinions today:

Last night, the Chicago PMI and the consumer confidence index fell, adding to expectations of a weak US ADP payroll and the US Markit and ISM Manufacturing PMI final . Dow futures, the dollar index, and crude oil prices fell. Today, the market will be watching U.S. ADP payrolls for March as a guide to nonfarm payroll expectations and an assessment of the U.S. unemployment rate, which would affect the dollar, Dow futures, and crude oil prices over the next two days.

In Europe today, the focus will be on German retail sales in February, the German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for March and the Eurozone unemployment rate for February. The consensus data forecast was lower on expectations that Europe would be affected by the coronavirus outbreak, and it is believed that limiting the rise of European currencies is likely to be bearish ahead of the release of European data. Separately, when U.S. markets open, keep an eye on U.S. ADP payrolls and the Manufacturing PMI for March. Depending on the extent of the weak data, the direct negative dollar index and the U.S. Dow futures range. Keep in mind that if the U.S. data is weak, European currencies, commodity currencies, and gold and silver prices will have a chance to ride the wave. U.S. futures and delivery prices are likely to fall, and U.S. crude oil futures could test significant support levels of $19 to $18.

[Important financial data and events to watch]
Note: * denotes importance

09:45 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI in March **
14:00 Germany retail sales in February* *
15:30 Swiss PMI in March * *
15:50 French Manufacturing PMI for March* *
15:55 German Manufacturing PMI final in March * * *
16:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI final in March ***
16:30 UK Manufacturing PMI for March ***
17:00 Eurozone unemployment rate in February **
20:15 US ADP payroll * * *
21:45 US Markit manufacturing PMI final * * *
22:00 US ISM manufacturing PMI * * *
22:30 US EIA crude oil inventory change * *

EURUSD
1.1055/1.1070 resistance
1.0950/1.0925 support
Investors are betting that European economic data in March will be hit by a pandemic, with weak economic and data. Weak European data is expected to weigh on the Euro today. The Euro was seen in the 4-hour chart, with important support at 1.0950 and 1.0925, and resistance at 1.1055 and 1.1070. If EURUSD breaks through resistance, it could extend its gains against the dollar, test the 1.11 level.

The pound to dollar
1.2460/1.2485 resistance
1.2285/1.2265 support
Eurozone and UK data were expected to weaken, with pound would test $1.2285 or $1.2265 support. Investors are expected to wait for U.S. ADP payrolls after European markets today. Believe in the bearish dollar, would see the pound upward. Technically, the resistance range of 1.2460 or 1.2485 is expected to be tested.

Australian dollar/US dollar
0.6185/0.6200 resistance
0.6095/0.6075 support
Today, China Caixin manufacturing PMI for march rose in line with yesterday's official manufacturing PMI, while the Australian dollar remained at 0.61 against the U.S. dollar, more bullish. It is believed that investors expect the weak PMI and job data released in the United States tonight, which could benefit from the US dollar's decline and the Australian dollar's upward tentative rebound.

Dollar to yen
108.05/108.25 resistance
107.25/107.05 support
Dow futures and the Nikkei often lead the dollar against the yen. Yesterday, the analysis said the dollar could test the 107 level against the yen if Dow futures and the Nikkei fall. Early in Asia, the dollar was trading at 107.25 yen. If Dow futures and Nikkei continue to fall, technically, the dollar/yen correction 50% in March, with the first support level at 106.40 and the next level at 105.20. The first significant resistance level is now estimated at 108.25.

US dollar/Canadian dollar
1.4255/1.4275 resistance
1.4045/1.4025 support level
Crude oil prices continue to decline trend, bearish Canadian dollar. The U.S. dollar fell and the Canadian dollar gained on expectations of weak U.S. economic data. The U.S. dollar could rise to $1.42 against the Canadian dollar if crude oil prices fall sharply.

US crude oil futures
21.90/22.20 resistance
19.95/19.65 support
As global crude oil demand slowed, Saudi producers continued to discount and announced an increase of 400,000 barrels a day to 1m b/d from 600,000 b/d. Believe that U.S. crude oil prices continue to limit the $25 key resistance range. Combined with investors' expectations of weak U.S. manufacturing PMI and ADP private payroll data in March, crude oil prices were bearish. Technically, watch out for wave resistance at $21.90 and $22.20, respectively. First key support at $19.65.

Gold
1610/1613 resistance
1570/1567 support
Recent this analysis points to, gold price and silver price adjust together. Preliminary estimates of gold prices tested $1610 support level also breached. Silver fell in step with gold, but less than gold. Now, if investors expect weak Manufacturing PMI data in Europe and the U.S. today, watch for a possible rebound in gold and silver prices. Technically, gold prices rebounded sharply after hitting $1,567, with investors expected to place bids below $1,580. Investors can use this as a reference price and strategy to look for the first significant resistance level at $1,613.

Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
21950/22135 resistance
21295/21075 support
Dow futures fell as investors downplayed the outlook for the economy and corporate earnings amid a pandemic in the United States, believing the rebound in Dow futures would be limited. As expected yesterday, U.S. manufacturing PMI, ADP private market job data are expected to be weak, Dow futures fell. If the adjusted wave estimation is used, the short-term support is at 21295 and 21075. The next level targets are 20,755 and 20,435, respectively.

BTCUSD:
6800/ 7000 resistance
5700 / 5550 support
The federal reserve launches No limited QE program. Technically, the bitcoin price would rebound. The bitcoin price is looking for $6800 or $7000 resistance. If the bitcoin price breaks $7000, it would test $10,000.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices

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