ATFX Market Updates 2020

[Kelly Yeung]

ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 Mar 5

Personal opinions today:

The federal reserve has cut interest rate 0.5%, Fed fund rate hits 1.25%. Last night the Bank of Canada followed the federal reserve in cutting rates 0.5%. Markets had expected the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates only 0.25%, but they were not surprised. As many Central Banks around the world mentioned they prepare to cut interest rates, the capital funds put money into risk markets. Separately, U.S. ADP payroll and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI for February beat market expectations. Dow futures rebounded more than 1,000 points last night, covered most of the losses on this Monday. While risk aversion cooled as European and Asian stocks rebounded, while the gold price and the yen fell.

Attention today, OPEC meeting opening, investors watch crude oil price volatility. In the evening, EU chief Brexit negotiator held a press conference and Bank of England governor spoke, keeping an eye on the Euro and the British pound, and indirectly on the Swiss franc. Separately, U.S. jobless claims change and U.S. factory and durable goods orders for January. The data mentioned above, particularly U.S. data, will affect the dollar index, Dow futures and gold prices, until release U.S. non-farm payrolls data tomorrow.

[Important financial data and events]
Note: * refers to the degree of importance

16:30 OPEC meeting opening***
21:30 U.S. Jobless claims for last week ***
23:00 U.S. Factory and Durable goods orders for January **
23:00 EU Chief Brexit negotiator holds a press conference ***
The next day 01:00 Bank of England governor speaks ***
The next day 01:45 Bank of Canada economic report **

EURUSD
1.1165/1.1175 resistance
1.1100/1.1095 support
Eurozone retail sales rose in February released yesterday, in line with expectations, but PMI for services in Germany and the eurozone fell in February. On top of that, U.S. ADP payrolls beat market expectations in February and were bearish for the Euro. Euro/dollar cannot continue to rise, stop before 1.1200 resistance. Investors wait and see the U.S. economic data and the European Union's chief Brexit negotiator press conference tonight, the Euro would volatility.

Pound to dollar
1.2890/1.2900 resistance
1.2755/1.2745 support
UK fundamentals are bearish for the British pound, but the Fed sudden interest rate cut has caused the pound to rebound. For the time being, GBP/USD is limited to 1.2900 resistance. Investors wait and see the U.S. economic data and the EU Chief Brexit negotiator press conference tonight. The pound could fall if he is strongly unhappy with the British government's Brexit deal.

Australian dollar
0.6625/0.6635 resistance
0.6565/0.6555 support
The Australian dollar rebounded after a better-than-expected annualized GDP report for the fourth quarter and a federal reserve rate cut, but remained limited to 0.66 against the U.S. dollar, failing to sustain the rally after peaking around 0.6625. The Australian dollar could test support at 0.6565 or 0.6555 against the greenback if U.S. economic data is strong and over investor’s expectation tonight.

Dollar to yen
107.75/107.85 resistance
107.25/107.15 support
Dow futures rebounded from recent lows and the dollar/yen followed the pattern. But watch out for the dollar to fall against the yen if U.S. economic data is weak or Dow futures fall again. In addition, the dollar is still likely to fall against the yen during March, when capital flows back to Japan for fiscal year-end. Technically, dollar/yen would test 106.85 an important support.

USDCAD
1.3420/1.3430 resistance
1.3325/1.3310 support
The Bank of Canada cut rates last night followed the federal reserve in cutting rates by 0.5%. The Canadian dollar had previously fallen, making its first attempt at 1.3430. Gains in the U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar were limited as investors anticipated a meeting for OPEC output cut, raising the prospect of a rise in crude prices. Technically, for reference to USDCAD. Resistance at 1.3430 and below 1.3310 as support.

US crude oil futures
49.15/50.45 resistance
47.00/46.55 support
OPEC and energy ministers will meet to discuss production cuts. Oil prices are expected to rebound after the federal reserve, Australia and Canada cut interest rates. If OPEC confirms output cut more than 1 million barrels per day, bullish crude oil price.

Gold
1648/1650 resistance
1630/1628 support
Gold rebounded after the federal reserve's surprise rate cut. Yesterday this analysis refers to the Fed rate cut news, gold prices have been reflected. Yesterday, the ECB did not mention any monetary policy change. U.S. job data and service sector PMI for February were positive, Dow futures also rebounded, and gold prices adjusted higher. Technically, the first significant resistance to gold is at $1,665. For now, however, we can lower the resistance level to $1,648 and $1,650, below support at $1,630 and $1,628, and wait for the U.S. non-farm payrolls data tomorrow night.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
27090/27290 resistance
26400/26210 support
Yesterday, this analysis from technical analysis estimates that Dow futures important resistance range in 26875 and 27290, the technical resistance is still in place, Dow futures test resistance is expected to decline. U.S. job data and the services PMI beat market expectations last night, but Dow futures only rose to 27,090, did not touch the 27,290 resistance. Ahead of tomorrow night's U.S. non-farm payroll data, Dow futures have a low chance to break above resistance and could test support at 26400 or 26210.

BTCUSD:
9245/ 9550 resistance
8550 / 8355 support
Unexpected market demand declined in cryptocurrencies, the bitcoin price fell sharply before. Most of the cryptocurrency’s price fell and transfer to the traditional hedge market. Technically, the important support at $8250. Now, investors foresee the G7 may cut interest rate or QE, the demand of the crypto would rebound.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

For more analysis check out, please click the below link:


ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:

• AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA;
• ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC;
• AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines;
• AT Global Markets Intl Ltd in Mauritus is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and;
• AT Capital Markets Limited is a rep office of ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited regulated by Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) and CySEC. AT Capital Markets Limited deals with Professional clients only.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

For more analysis check out, please click the below link:




ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:

• AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA;
• ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC;
• AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines;
• AT Global Markets Intl Ltd in Mauritus is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and;
• AT Capital Markets Limited is a rep office of ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited regulated by Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) and CySEC. AT Capital Markets Limited deals with Professional clients only.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 Mar 6

Personal opinions today:

The U.S. non-farm payrolls data for February release tonight focused on the number of non-farm payrolls, the unemployment rate, and average hourly wages. The prior day, the U.S. ADP payroll in February was 183,000, and the expectation is that February non-farm payrolls may be lower than that. In addition, the unemployment rate is expected to rise and average hourly wages to fall in early February. Dow index and the dollar fell last night as investors prepared for potentially weak US jobs data. Dow futures and the dollar are likely to bounce lower and crude oil prices could rise if U.S. jobs data is in line with expectations. If Dow futures rebound, gold prices and a host of currencies fell against the dollar.

[Important financial data and events to watch]
Note: * denotes importance

15:45 France January trade account *
16:30 UK Halifax house price index in February **
16:30 OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting **
21:30 U.S. trade account and unemployment rate ***
21:30 U.S. February non-farm payrolls ***
23:00 U.S. January wholesale sales **
The next day 03:00 Fed Williams attend a meeting **

(U.S. daylight time starts next Monday, U.S. market opening and data release time is one hour earlier)

EURUSD
1.1245/1.1255 resistance
1.1185/1.1075 support
The dollar fell as markets watched tonight's U.S. nonfarm payrolls data, investors were cautious and Treasury prices fell. But the ECB has yet to signal that the Euro is stronger. It's worth noting that the Euro has a chance to fall against the dollar if the dollar adjusts after tonight's U.S. nonfarm data. Next Thursday, before the ECB interest rates decision. Investors are likely to adjust their positions for an ECB rate cut or other easing measures to limit the euro's gains against the dollar and more likely to fall. It is recommended to note initial significant resistance, 1.1255.

British Pound to the dollar
1.2970/1.2980 resistance
1.2905/1.2895 support
The dollar fell, with sterling breaking through resistance at $1.2900. Separately, Britain's finance minister said there were no plans to cut interest rates. Comments from the incoming finance minister that he plans to step up measures to stimulate the economy bullish the pound. But on the other hand, trade talks between Britain and the EU continue to stall. The British prime minister says he's doing all he can to get a good deal for Britain. Tonight's U.S. job data could be a test of the British pound.

Australian dollar
0.6625/0.6635 resistance
0.6565/0.6555 support
Australia Q4 GDP beat market expectations at an annualized rate and the U.S. federal reserve cut interest rates sharply. The Australian dollar rebounded against the U.S. dollar but remained technically limited at 0.66 and around 0.6635. The Australian dollar is likely to fall against the greenback after the dollar's fall eased tonight after U.S. payrolls for February. The AUDUSD could test support at 0.6565 or 0.6555 against the U.S. dollar if U.S. job data remains strong tonight.

Dollar to Japanese yen
106.75/106.85 resistance
105.75/105.65 support
The dollar's fall against the yen widened in March as investors grew more concerned about the prospect of weak U.S. jobs data for February, and as Japan's fiscal year saw funds flow back into the country and back into the yen with safe-haven fund flows into the yen as well. Technically, USDJPY at 106.85 is an important support level, the trend can test 105.65, more likely to test last year's low of 104.65. If U.S. job data remains strong tonight and Dow futures rebound, the dollar could try another 106.85 yen resistance.

US dollar/Canadian dollar
1.3425/1.3435 resistance
1.3325/1.3310 support
The Bank of Canada followed the federal reserve in cutting interest rates by half a basis point and the U.S. dollar was flat against the Canadian dollar, with resistance to the greenback pedaling near 1.3430. Separately, investors were expecting OPEC and energy ministers to meet to discuss an agreement to cut production. Russia has tentatively agreed to OPEC’s intention to cut output, and whether a decision will be made over the weekend, investors are expecting crude prices to rise, with an indirect bullish for the Canadian dollar. Technically, the reference USDCAD resistance level 1.3430, looking down 1.3310 support.

US crude oil futures
49.15/50.45 resistance
45.55/45.25 support
OPEC and energy ministers meeting to discuss cutting production in the hope that an agreement will be reached. In addition, after the federal reserve, the Central Banks of Australia and Canada cut interest rates, other Central Banks are believed to follow suit and oil prices are expected to rebound. If U.S. job data, nonfarm payrolls, and the unemployment rate are in the range expected by investors tonight, they could be the first to lift oil prices. To calculate the cyclical technical rebound, if 50% is $49.15, if 62% is $50.45, if 73.6% is nearly $51.75.

Gold
1678/1680 resistance
1638/1636 support
U.S. Job data for February is likely to be weak, Dow futures fell, and gold price continued its rally. Technically, gold price breaks the first level of significant resistance at $1,665, which is testing resistance at $1,680. Watch out for the most critical technical resistance at $1,690. If U.S. non-farm payrolls data are not as weak as expected tonight, risk aversion could cool and gold price has a chance to fall. If below $1,665, it will be looking for $1638 or $1636 support.

Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
26515/26700 resistance
25715/25540 support
Investors are worried about the spread of a coronavirus, affecting the economy and corporate earnings. Meanwhile, Dow futures adjusted again last night as investors fretted about weak U.S. jobs data for February tonight. Dow futures fell early as markets watched the results of U.S. non-farm payrolls data. Dow futures could rebound immediately if non-farm payrolls come close to expectations of 150,000. If the number falls below 100,000, Dow futures could test 25,715 or 25,540 before rebounding. Initial resistance level recommendations, 26515 and 26700.

BTCUSD:
9245/ 9550 resistance
8550 / 8355 support
Before U.S. none-farm payroll, the Dow future and dollars fell. The demand for cryptocurrencies increased, the bitcoin price rebounded. The trend keeps upward or downward, it would look the U.S. job data.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 Mar 9

Personal opinions today:

U.S. non-farm payrolls, the unemployment rate, and average wages in February, all beat market expectations. The dollar index and Dow futures had rebounded. But affected by the global new pneumonia, investor confidence is still not optimistic, limiting the rise of the dollar index and Dow futures. Asian trading opened today, the dollar index and Dow futures and Asian stocks fell sharply. Gold, silver price and the Japanese yen, opened higher in Asia session. In crude oil price fell 30%, it was because the OPEC fails to cut in output with energy ministers with Russia. The price of crude oil fell as low as $30 a barrel. The panic drop in crude oil prices may be short term. The sentiment is also expected to improve, with global equity confidence expected to rise and the dollar index and Dow futures rebounding.

[Important financial data and events to watch]
Note: * denotes importance

US daylight saving time begins * * *
Energy ministers and executives from key oil-producing countries meet * * *
07:50 Japan Q4 real GDP revised * *
07:50 Japan January Trade account * *
14:45 Swiss unemployment rate in February * *
15:00 German industrial output in January *
15:00 German Trade account in January * * *
17:00 IEA releases monthly oil market report * * *
17:30 Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index for March **
20:15 Canada Housing starts in February * *
22:00 U.S. CB employment trends index for February *

EURUSD
1.1485/1.1500 resistance
1.1285/1.1265 support
The European central bank set interest rates on Thursday. Investors see an opportunity for the euro to rise against the dollar as the ECB may follow international central Banks in cutting interest rates, possibly in line with the ECB and more likely with other easing measures. It is recommended to note initial significant resistance. If the dollar rebounds, the euro could test the 1.12 or 1.11 level against the dollar. Currently, the initial support bit is 1.1285 or 1.1265.

The pound to the dollar
1.3115/1.3130 resistance
1.3000/1.2985 support
The dollar fell, with pounds trading above $1.30. Earlier, the British finance minister said there were no plans to cut interest rates and plans to increase measures to stimulate the British economy, comments that many pounds. However, the UK and the EU trade negotiations continue to deadlock, although the two sides said that the negotiations are expected to be completed by the end of the year, but have to prevent, during the negotiations at any time serious differences, resulting in a fall in the pound. For now, it is recommended to note the initial significant resistance.

Australian dollar
0.6625/0.6655 resistance
0.6465/0.6450 support
Last week, the federal reserve cut interest rates sharply, pushing the AUD higher, but still technically limited to the 0.66 level, which had peaked at 0.6656. Short term technical trend, the Australian dollar fell to us dollar 20 hours average line, the trend may be lower, next test the level of 0.64.

Dollar to yen
104.45/104.60 resistance
101.60/101.45 support
This morning's release of Japan Q4 GDP and January trade account was a bearish for the Japanese stock market, as companies poured money into the yen. In addition, the spread of new pneumonia, the U.S. 10 - and 30-year Treasury yields fell, the dollar weakened, the dollar fell against the yen. Technically, the dollar broke through last year's low of 104.65 against the yen. Without an improvement in the spread of the disease, global stock markets will lack the strength to rally. The dollar may test the 2016 low of 101 against the yen. It is recommended to keep a close eye on movements in global stock markets, especially Dow futures, to track the dollar-yen trend.

Us dollar/Canadian dollar
1.3735/1.3750 resistance
1.3575/1.3510 support
The failure of a meeting between OPEC and energy ministers to discuss a deal to cut output sent crude prices down 30%, hurting the Canadian dollar. Technically, the reference USDCAD may test resistance level 1.3750. Only with oil prices recovering in the US trading session, the U.S. dollar is expected to fall against the Canadian dollar to test below the 1.35 level.

US crude oil futures
32.15/32.45 resistance
28.55/28.00 support
Crude Oil prices fell after a meeting of OPEC and energy ministers failed to discuss cutting output. Energy ministers and business executives from major oil-producing countries are meeting today in a deal that could boost crude prices. In the short term, U.S. crude oil futures could hit an all-time low of $25.96 if the crude oil price falls to $28 support.

Gold
1715/1720 resistance
1685/1680 support
Stock markets around the world have fallen amid global fears about the spread of the disease. The outbreak hit the U.S. economy hard, risk aversion in the market, gold prices continued to rise. Gold rose to $1,700. If global equity markets continue to fall over the next two days, gold could go up to $1,720 and up to $1,740. Believe, the stock market to stabilize, break 1680 support, the first phase of support $1650 - $1645.

Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
25230/25500 resistance
24615/24270 support
Investors are worried about the spread of a new pandemic, affecting the economy and corporate profits. Separately, the failure of talks between OPEC and Russia's energy minister intensified fears in investment markets and Dow futures crossed 25,540 support levels. Now, wait and see the 2019 low of 24615, if the breakthrough, the next 24270 support or possibly until 2018 low.

BTCUSD:
8445/ 8550 resistance
7850 / 7655 support
Investors are worried about the spread of a new pandemic, affecting the economy. Cryptocurrencies investors drawback fund, the bitcoin price fell sharply.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

For more analysis check out, please click the below link:

ATFX is a co-brand shared by a number of different entities globally including:

• AT Global Markets (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom regulated by FCA;
• ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by CySEC;
• AT Global Markets Limited registered in the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines;
• AT Global Markets Intl Ltd in Mauritus is licensed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and;
• AT Capital Markets Limited is a rep office of ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited regulated by Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) and CySEC. AT Capital Markets Limited deals with Professional clients only.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

ATFX-A Global Leader in Online Trading
ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 Mar 10

Personal opinions today:

In the first quarter of 2020, the first black swan event occurred due to the sharp drop in US Treasury yields and the price of crude oil, and the global financial market fluctuated.

Dow futures and global stock markets fell as a new bout of pneumonia weighed on confidence in the economic outlook. Investors and financials expect the federal reserve to meet next week and possibly cut the federal interest rate further. Futures rates suggest the rate cut could be increased from 0.75% to 1%. Traders estimate the chance of a 1% rate cut at 70. US Treasury yields continued to fall but rose slightly before the start of trading in Asia today as equity markets steadied following the US President's tax cut comments. The dollar index and Dow futures began to narrow losses in Asian trading, believing investors were buying the dollar and Dow component at bargain prices. Rising stocks weigh on gold prices.

[Important financial data and events to watch]
Note: * importance

Daylight saving time begun in the United States
09:30 China February CPI annual rate * * *
15:45 French industrial output in January * *
18:00 U.S. February NFIB small business confidence index * *
18:00 Eurozone Q4 GDP revised ***
24:00 EIA releases monthly short-term energy outlook * *
The next day 04:30 U.S. API crude stocks change * * *

EURUSD
1.1445/1.1455 resistance
1.1350/1.1340 support
In Europe today, Eurozone Q4 GDP revised, which may have implications for this week's European Central Bank interest rate decision. In addition, the dollar index is stable, and there are signs of a rebound, believe that the Euro reverse upward. A preliminary estimate, the first support at 1.1340. If the EURUSD moves from a recent low of 1.1095 to 1.1495, adjusted 50%, the target is 1.1295. As we can see from the hour charts, the 10 - and 20-hour moving averages have shown signs of a decline. Investors should keep an eye out!

The pound to the dollar
1.3095/1.3115 resistance
1.3000/1.2985 support
British and European Brexit trade talks continue to be deadlocked. The two sides say they hope to complete the negotiations by the end of the year. Currently, it is recommended to note the initial significant resistance. If the pound follows the euro decline, the pound-dollar reverse 50%, the target is 1.2985. As we can see from the hour charts, the 10 - and 20-hour moving averages have shown signs of a decline. Investors should keep an eye out!

Australian dollar to dollar
0.6590/0.6600 resistance
0.6535/0.6525 support
After the black swan event in the market yesterday, the Australian dollar had fallen sharply against the US dollar, as low as 0.6300. Short term technical action, the AUDUSD to limit 0.66 resistance range, preliminary estimates approaching 0.6535 or 0.6525 support. The decline continued, we can look down to the important support 0.6455.

Dollar to Japanese yen
104.45/104.60 resistance
102.90/102.80 support
Yesterday, the black swan effect even accelerated the speed of Japanese corporate capital flow back to Japan, the dollar to the yen fell sharply, as low as 101.2. It is believed that the 101 level has reached the goal of Japanese corporate capital repatriation. Coupled with a slight narrowing of the decline in U.S. 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields, financial markets began to stabilise. Investors are looking back at negative fundamentals in Japan, where the dollar to yen is expected to approaching 104.65 yen. Of course, if the global stock markets will fall, the dollar may try again at its 2016 low of 101 against the yen. It is recommended to keep a close eye on movements in global stock markets, especially Dow futures, to track the dollar-yen trend.

US dollar/Canadian dollar
1.3680/1.3700 resistance
1.3615/1.3605 support
Crude oil prices fell yesterday, helping to undermine the Canadian dollar, after a meeting of OPEC and energy ministers to discuss a deal to cut output failed. The price of crude then stabilized and bounced back to us $30, with the Canadian dollar rising to recoup some of yesterday's losses. Technically, the reference USDCAD may test resistance level 1.3700. Believe, only the oil prices rebound, the U.S. dollar is expected to fall against the Canadian dollar, the target is next to test the 1.35 level.

US crude oil futures
35.15/35.45 resistance
29.55/29.00 support
Oil prices fell after a meeting of OPEC and energy ministers failed to discuss cutting output. It followed a meeting of energy ministers and executives from major oil producers, who pledged to stabilize demand for crude and boost prices. In the short term, U.S. crude futures could stay as low as $29 and cut their losses if they break above their historic low of $25.96. The initial target is $35, and further tries are $40 to $45.

Gold
1680/1683 resistance
1650/1648 support
Gold rose as high as $1, 700 yesterday following the black swan event. As the global stock market tumbled, gold prices fell sharply, dropping below support at $1,680 for the first time, to a low of $1,657. If dow futures and global equities continue to rally, gold could see support at $1,650 to $1,648.

Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
25230/25500 resistance
24270/23745 support
Stocks fell yesterday as investors worried about the economic outlook and corporate profits sent money pouring out of the safety of equities and into treasuries. Separately, the failure of talks between OPEC and Russia's energy minister intensified fears in investment markets and Dow futures fell above their 2019 low of 24270, with a tentative correction of 73.6% to 23,745 support. By comments from the U.S. President today, the stock market is expected to climb above 25,000 after recovering 24,270.

BTCUSD:
8445/ 8550 resistance
7850 / 7655 support
Investors are worried about the spread of a new pandemic, affecting the economy. The stock fell sharply, Cryptocurrencies investors drawback fund, the bitcoin price fell sharply. Hopefully, the stock market going stable, then the cryptocurrencies demand increased, then the bitcoin price would rebound.


Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

Eurozone: if you’re standing still, you’re moving backwards?

Following the outbreak of the coronavirus and the uncertainty in the markets. The eurozone economic sentiment - especially in its biggest economic countries – wasn’t really optimistic. And it is not like, they were that optimistic before; Many long hours of monetary policy discussions and debates couldn’t deliver a clear vision on how to get through the slow growth the Eurozone has witnessed over the past year.

It seems like all applied strategies are just trying to push things a little further, but not radically change the economic vision or monetary policies. One might argue that the main challenge to the Eurozone if not a recession or growth battle, but a battle against a great stagnation.

In its attempt to fight this prolonged stagnation, Germany’s consumer price index (CPI) showed a glimpse of positivity for the month of January, as it climbed to 1.7% – overpassing July 2019 highest level – and scoring 0.2% above its previous month percentage of 1.5%. We’re focusing now on Germany’s data since it is Europe’s biggest economy and since the Euro area, annual inflation data is yet to be published, with an expected rate of 1.4% for January. If the forecasts are right it would be a 0.1% increase from the previous month of December 2019 which witnessed an inflation rate of 1.3%.

Even if the forecasts came up better than expected, many indicators and updates predict a worse upcoming month for the euro area that still falls short – even without the approaching bad news effect - of an inflation rate close to 2%, the target of Europe Central Bank.



What do expect next?

As of Monday, the 9th of March, the European stocks closed lower as a direct reflection of coronavirus outbreak and the clear sell off oil prices, the European Stoxx600 plunged 7% lower the heavy energy shares witnessed a hard fall as the Europe's oil & gas index SXEP crashed by 13%, and it seems like the ball has just started rolling. A damaging impact on the energy sector is expected for the upcoming month, a direct reaction by the major drop witnessed in crude oil prices. Yet, in the current scenario, the fall of oil prices won’t just affect the energy sector. Usually, a fall in oil prices might have its beneficial aspects on private consumption and investment, but that won’t be the case in the upcoming month, again backed by the of coronavirus outbreak. With all the pressure on the Eurozone, it seems like the markets are betting on a proper monetary policy and measures to overcome the worst.

So far, the markets seem to have no confidence that the soft monetary policy of central banks will protect the economy from the massive downturn, despite an estimated € 20 billion increase in the bond purchase program to reach € 40 billion per month. So, do we still hope for a recovery in Q1 or Q2?



We think, because of the spread of the coronavirus that is out of control, we will not see any growth next month in euro area GDP. But perhaps we can see a decline in CPI due to the decline of energy prices.



Analysis by Ramy Abouzaid, ATFX (AE) Head of Market Research

Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : The Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

 

[Kelly Yeung]

Since November 2019, natural gas prices have been under pressure and have declined by 34.83%. The main reason for prices trading lower is that the market suffers from oversupply.
Since crude oil producers started to use fracking to extract crude oil from places that before were not profitable, they have also been finding natural gas as a by-product. However, they are not interested in natural gas, and sometimes, producers have found it cheaper to burn the gas instead of selling it, as they need to pay to get the gas to the market.

The problem with oversupply is not only a US problem; it is a global issue with oversupply in Europe and Asia.

Mild temperatures this winter have also pressured the price since November 2019, while the coronavirus outbreak also affected the demand for natural gas. The downward momentum accelerated after the price pierced below the 100-day moving average in December, while the coronavirus impact was felt in the natural gas markets after January.

However, in the last few days, natural gas prices managed to bounce after the Fed cut interest rates. The markets are currently pricing in more central bank rate cuts, and natural gas prices turned higher as the interest rate cuts might support the natural gas demand.

Natural Gas Price Technical Outlook
The technical outlook is bearish, and the price is trading below a descending trendline that started last November. The first signs of the market price turning higher would be if the index trades above the falling trendline. However, to indeed turn bullish, the price needs to take out the February 2020 high of 2.036, as long as the price remains in a downtrend, the price might be able to reach the 2020 low of 1.6747, followed by the 2016 low of 1.578.

Daily Chart

Written by Alejandro Zambrano, Chief Market Strategist, ATFX.

Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : The Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.