Comments and forex-analytics from FBS Holdings Inc. brokerage company

[wynnasuju]

EUR/USD: technical update
Monday, September 3, 2012 - 10:33

EUR/USD is consolidating in the $1.2585/60 area on Friday after testing new highs above $1.2600 on Friday. Here we also see some divergence on H4 MACD, though the short-term uptrend remains intact.

Commerzbank: resistance for EUR/USD is getting serious. The bulls may fail at $1.2657 (downtrend resistance line of August 2011) and $1.2748 (June maximum). In this case EUR/USD will resume its decline heading to the levels below $1.2406 (August 2 peak).

NAB: “EUR/USD has reached our interim (end Q3) target of 1.26, while AUD/EUR has similarly reached our forecast of 0.82. While volatility is set to rise through October, risk now is that some of the additional gains we anticipated during Q4 will materialize sooner. We can see EUR/USD trading up to at least 1.28 this month and AUD/EUR down to test 80.0.”

Chart. H4 EUR/USD

EUR/USD: technical update // FBS Markets Inc.

 

[wynnasuju]

Westpac: bearish on NZD/USD
Monday, September 3, 2012 - 12:58

On Monday NZD/USD trades close to a 5-week low below the $0.8000 mark and the 200-day MA. The kiwi remains under pressure because of the negative Chinese data and the euro crisis tension.

Support for NZD/USD is seen at $0.7930 (100-day MA), $0.7840/60 (support area of the June July sideways channel) and at $0.7800, while resistance – at $0.7997 (200-day MA), $0.8014 (June 21 maximum), $0.8053 (July 19 maximum) and $0.8073 (July 5 maximum).

According to specialists at Westpac, the pair targets $0.7800 and $0.7550. Australian GDP (Wednesday) and ECB meeting results and Australian labor market data (Thursday) may pull the pair down.

Chart. Daily NZD/USD

Westpac: bearish on NZD/USD // FBS Markets Inc.

 

[wynnasuju]

Macroeconomic indicators
Monday, September 3, 2012 - 17:27

The table below provides recent data on the main macroeconomic indicators and is an extremely valuable resource for any trader.

Macroeconomic indicators // FBS Markets Inc.

 

[wynnasuju]

September 4: forex news
Tuesday, September 4, 2012 - 06:16

The market players are all about anticipating the ECB’s move on Thursday. Investors seem to believe that the ECB has everything ready to launch new bond purchases. The central bank’s President Mario Draghi said yesterday that purchases of sovereign bonds with a maturity of up to 3-years won’t be considered as state aid and would not breach the ECB’s mandate. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said he was sure the country's Constitutional Court would not block treaties establishing a permanent bailout fund (ESM) September 12.

EUR/USD rose above $1.2600 moving gradually up. USD/JPY is up from the recent lows testing resistance around 78.40 yen. GBP/USD is trading on the upside, not far from resistance of $1.5912. UK construction PMI is released at 8:30 GMT. Swiss GDP unexpectedly contracted by 0.1% in Q2. The SNB has good reasons to keep defending franc’s cap.

AUD/USD went up from its 6-week lows after the RBA left the rates on hold at 3.50%. According to the RBA Governor Glenn Stevens, the regulator’s monetary policy is “appropriate” to current economic situation. The tone of the statement was not as dovish as many market participants feared in the context of Chinese problems and drop in iron prices, but contained some dovish hints. Many economists believe the RBA remains in a wait-and-see mode. AUD/USD strengthened towards $1.0280 levels, but still remains below the 200-day MA. NZD/USD opened a new 5-week minimum at $0.7953 on Asian stocks decline, but then bounced higher. USD/CAD remains on a 4-month low around 0.9850.

EU President Herman Van Rompuy meets with German Chancellor Angela Merkel today in Berlin. Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti welcomes French President Francois Hollande to Rome. Later today watch for ISM August manufacturing data (cons.:50.0, prev.: 49.8).

September 4: forex news // FBS Markets Inc.

 

[wynnasuju]

Key options expiring today
Tuesday, September 4, 2012 - 06:29

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.2500, $1.2540, $1.2550 (large), $1.2600, $1.2700;

USD/JPY: 78.00, 78.45, 79.00, 80.00 (large);

USD/CHF: 0.9540, 0.9750;

AUD/USD: $1.0325;

EUR/JPY: 96.00;

EUR/GBP: 0.8005.

Key options expiring today // FBS Markets Inc.

 

[wynnasuju]

BoA, Barclays, SocGen: ideas about the ECB
Tuesday, September 4, 2012 - 07:27

Bank of America Merrill Lynch: “The ECB bond buying plan at its meeting on Thursday is likely to disappoint. Further clarification is expected on the ECB’s seniority status; the type of purchased securities, which markets understood as specifying the maturity of sovereign bonds to be purchased; and perhaps the amount of securities to be purchased. In our view markets may be expecting too much transparency from the ECB in the absence of any formal request for EFSF/ESM support. The likely market disappointment should intensify the pressure on Spain to request a new program, but concrete moves will have to wait for the German constitutional court’s ruling on the ESM on September 12. The ECB may cut its refi rate by 25bp to 0.50%.”

Barclays and Societe Generale: The ECB will wait until the German constitutional court decision on September 12 to give full details of its actions.

Societe Generale: “While the ECB’s announcement of a new bond buying program was welcome, there’s the risk that other good news will be slower in coming.”

“Draghi will be vague and he should be,” says Unicredit.

Image from economist.com

BoA, Barclays, SocGen: ideas about the ECB // FBS Markets Inc.

 

[wynnasuju]

Commerzbank: outlook for AUD/USD
Tuesday, September 4, 2012 - 08:05

On Tuesday AUD/USD moves up on the RBA meeting results, but the overall trend remains downward. The pair trades below $1.0300 and is cramped between the 200- and 100-day MA.

According to Commerzbank analysts, in a near-term AUD/USD is likely to find support at $1.0219 (38.2% Fib. retracement of the summer uptrend). Specialists are bearish for the pair while it remains below $1.0545 (August 23 maximum) and see the first resistance at $1.0318 (200 -day MA) and $1.0412 (August 17 minimum). AUD/USD may make an upside move, but is expected to fail to overcome the $1.0412 resistance and to drop towards $1.0100 (July 12 minimum and 50% Fib. retracement).

Chart. Daily AUD/USD

Commerzbank: outlook for AUD/USD // FBS Markets Inc.

 

[wynnasuju]

Euro’s prospects: opinions are divided
Tuesday, September 4, 2012 - 08:11

Traders and strategists are more divided than at any time since 2011 over whether European officials will be able to keep the currency from tumbling.

On the one hand, markets are generally optimistic about the ECB’s response to the crisis. On the other hand, the expected bond purchases will likely debase the currency.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley expect euro to slide to $1.1900 by the end of 2012. In their view, EUR/USD’s advance to $1.2700/$1.3000 would provide a good level to sell. Strategists at Wells Fargo think EUR/USD may climb to $1.3000 by the end of October and then slide to $1.2000 in a year as euro zone’s economy will underperform the US one.

The most bearish view is that of Bank of America Merrill Lynch which expects EUR to weaken to $1.15 by the end of the year. The most bullish forecast for EUR is given by HSBC which believes in the policymaker’s efforts to save euro: the banks projects that euro will rise to $1.3500 by the end of the year and $1.3700 by March 31 underlining that current levels are a buying opportunity.

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

Euro

 

[wynnasuju]

Commerzbank: NZD/USD will fall to 3-month low
Tuesday, September 4, 2012 - 08:44

Here’s one more forecast from Commerzbank. The analysts expect NZD/USD to slide to 3-month minimum at $0.7458.

The specialists underline that last week kiwi slipped below the key support of the 200-day MA at $0.7986. The pair may find initial support at previous minimums of $0.7969 and $0.7928 (100-day MA).

“We would allow for some profit taking here, however given that technical indicators are negative, rebounds should remain tepid. Once last week’s low at $0.7969 cents is fallen through, the July low at $0.7811 will be back in play. Failure here will mean that a medium-term top has been formed and that a drop back towards the $0.7458 June low is underway,” said the bank.

Chart. Daily NZD/USD

Commerzbank: NZD/USD will fall to 3-month low // FBS Markets Inc.

 

[wynnasuju]

Bloomberg: tip about EUR/USD
Tuesday, September 4, 2012 - 09:03

According to Bloomberg, EUR/USD is trading 3.3% higher than the median year-end estimate of more than 50 analysts at $1.22. Last week this gap expanded to 3.8%. The last time the single currency exceeded the consensus by that much was in July 2011, and euro lost 9.4% in the next 10 weeks. This gives us some food for thought, doesn’t it? The broad technical picture allows further gains (see MACD at the weekly chart), so the scenario that euro will firstly rise up to $1.3000 and then decline seems credible enough.

Chart. Weekly EUR/USD

Bloomberg: tip about EUR/USD // FBS Markets Inc.