Daily Market Analysis by ForexMart

[Luis ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 4 2016

Yesterday, the pair euro and dollar had subdued since the market's focus is leaned against the GBPUSD. In view of the movement yesterday, EUR remained unnoticeable but this instance gave the euro to avoid tough routine.

The pair continued to aim in reaching a higher range around 1.1245, however remained unsuccessful once again, resulting for a desolate gains and moved into the 1.1200 range. Moreover, the pair persists on a tight range close to 1.1207. Support sits at 1.1200 and 1.1245 is where the resistance stays.

Major news related to economics of the Euro region has not been released making the pair to be regarded as safe. Volatility is not included on the terms to look after because it is not expected until the release of the NFP on Friday. This report indicates the strength of the US economy plus it will provide some pointers whether or not there is a rate increase for the current year. Regardless of the result, the euro is seen to achieve more progress.

 

[Luis ForexMart]

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: October 4 2016

The current situation of the oil prices reinforced the entire commodity currencies inclusive of the Canadian dollar. Bearish investors attempted to regain their authority to manage the overall market.

During the Asian session the pair exhibited a neutral position. Upon the outset of the European hours, it fell into the selling pressure.

Sellers broke the 1.3100 level but did not stayed there for long. The price bounce off at the 1.3070 region. As seen in the 4-hour chart, the price is accelerating towards the 200-EMA by which the pair passed through the 100-EMA and attempted to reach the 50-EMA.

Resistance arrived at the 1.3200 mark while reaching the 1.3100 identified as the support. MACD had demonstrated the same activity as yesterday's result and affirmed the seller's strength. RSI falls in the neutral position as well.

USDCAD seems bullish and speculated to have an increase reaching the 1.3200 level.

 

[Luis ForexMart]

GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: October 4, 2016

After the announcement of UK Prime Minister Theresa May saying Brexit will proceed and will undergo the formal process of withdrawal from European Union which will end in 2019. This has shakened currency trading as GBP abruptly fell against other currencies such as USD, Euro and Japanese Yen. British Pound is performing well as its recent release on Monday morning of UK Manufacturing PMI is at 55.4 which is higher than the 52.1 expectation. However, this is not sufficient to stabilize another repercussion of Brexit.

On the contrary, safe haven assets like Gold and Yen are gaining advantage in this as the environment becomes riskier and weaker. The pair GBP/JPY declined to 130.00 support level when not to long ago it has been in a weak post-Brexit lows. It declined lower than 130.00 level many times on an intraday basis yet it moved steadily for three months since Britain’s exit last June.

The announcement would add tension on the pound while this would put forward Yen. A breakdown below 130.00 could continue the downtrend for more than a year reaching a record of four-year low for the pair. The next support target is at 125.00 level.

 

[Luis ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis for EUR/USD: October 5, 2016

The EUR/USD pair had increased volatility levels and was able to break through the small-scale trading range and went through the larger-scale trading range of 1.1145 and 1.1245 points. The early part of the trading session saw the USD gaining strength after it lost a significant amount of its value last week. The euro was also able to break through its previous support levels of 1.1200 to gain new support levels of 1.1145 before going as low as 1.1137 points. The EUR/USD pair was also affected by the news that the ECB is currently studying the tapering of the QE.

The EUR/USD went back at 1.1200 after the ECB rumors and went as far as 1.1238 before another headline was released, saying that this particular rumor with regards to the QE was not discussed in any of the ECB’s meetings, prompting the currency pair to go back down at 1.1200 points.

This highly volatile movement of the currency pair is a positive sign for traders who are currently looking for market volatility. The market is currently not expecting any major news announcements from the EU, with the US ADP Non-Farm Employment data the only announcement expected from the US market. The ADP data will act as a precursor for the NFP announcement on Friday which is expected to provide a useful insight on the current state of the US economy.

 

[Luis ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis for USD/CAD: October 5, 2016

The recent increase in value of the USD has caused certain currency pairs like the USD/CAD to move forward with their bullish runs, a move that has long since been anticipated for the currency pair during the past week. The USD/CAD pair was able to push through its resistance levels at 1.3140 points, even going beyond 1.3170 where it was met with marginal resistance and went with support levels after a gain of 1.3140 points.

The Canadian and US trading sessions saw the USD increase its value by a significant margin and has caused the USD/CAD to go through the 1.3200 trading range, and market players are expecting that the pair will be able to reach its short-term targets at 1.3240 and 1.3280 with relative ease in just a few days. The currency pair is now at the support level of 1.3173 but is still expected to go above its present trading range.

Market players are now awaiting the release of the Canadian trade balance data and the ADP Non-Farm Employment data from the US. These economic data should give traders an idea of the relative strength of the two economies, as well as the possible impact of lowered oil prices on both countries. This could then lead to an increased volatility towards the end of the next trading session.

 

[Luis ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis for USD/JPY: October 5, 2016

The USD increased in relation to the Japanese yen during the last trading session, with the USD/JPY pair closing the session at 102.90 points after increasing by +1.24% or 1.265 points. The pair’s current value is its highest trading level since September 15, putting pressure on the currency pair to exceed its highest level last September 14 at 103.351 points.

The increase in the USD was mostly due to a significant increase in US Treasury yields. The positive ISM Manufacturing PMI data released on Monday triggered an upsurge in Treasury yields, increasing the possibility of an interest rate hike this coming December. Comments from Fed officials also strengthened the US dollar, after Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Lacker stated that there is a high probability that interest rates would be increased and that inflation rates would be put under control by increasing borrowing costs.

The CME Group’s FedWatch indicator also showed that traders are seeing a 63% chance that the Federal Reserve would increase its interest rates during its meeting on December 13-14, an 11% increase from the previous reading after the last Fed meeting on September. This was also cemented by comments from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s President Loretta Mester, who called for higher interest rates from the Fed. Fed officials, however, are keeping their respective profiles low as of the moment.

 

[Luis ForexMart]

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: October 5, 2016

The dollar demonstrated a positive increase despite of the anticipated announcement of Fed regarding rate hike. The euro plummeted on Tuesday and unsuccessfully recover the previous resistance 1.1250.

The price proceeds near the 1.1150 however sellers lose their interest as the EURUSD tone down and cutback around the 1.1170 level. Moving averages were pushed in a descending manner as presented in the 4-hour chart. Resistance appeared at 1.1200, support showed up at 1.1150. MACD fell off that affirmed the seller's strength. RSI is heading to an oversold condition.

 

[Luis ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 5, 2016

The well-established strength of the U.S dollar since yesterday does not make sense over the sluggish status that the sterling is confronted with. The newly recovered positive performance of the greenbacks had worsen the condition of the pound. On Monday, sterling were tone down due to the remarks disclose by the Prime Minister May about EU exit timeline. Bullish investors shouldn't miss the chance to obtain the 1.2825 region considering that it is the point far from the referendum registry.

Upon the opening of the EU session had made the dollar to enhance its execution trades plus giving the bearish investors some favor on their part.

The 1.2825 level break off because the pair it promptly dropped through the 1.2800 region approaching to the Brexit low seen at the 1.2790 mark. Bullish investors had lesser number than the bears who continuously trying to smash the level 1.2750 and aims to go beyond 1.2718.

It is expected that the PMI will be release today as well as good news from UK but this doesn't make an impact against the bear train.

At present, the support is found in the 1.2700 and resistance is expected to stay near the brexit low at 1.2790.

 

[Luis ForexMart]

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: October 6, 2016

The USD/JPY pair is now trading at the 103.65 range after its value reverted back to the middle of the 103 range. The currency pair went back into the red zone in the middle of the Asian trading session but was still able to go well above the 103 trading handle. The USD/JPY closed down the recent session at 103.45 points, decreasing by -0.07%.

The currency pair is now collecting its rallies into per-month highs after consecutive US fundamentals all turned out to be on the positive territory, increasing the possibility of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve during the latter part of 2016. The release of the US non-farm payrolls data this coming Friday is seen as a determinant as to whether the Federal Reserve will be pushing through with its interest rate hike in December.

The USD/JPY’s resistance levels are now at the 103.66 range. If the currency pair would be able to break through this particular range, then the pair could go within the 103.89 range and could possibly break through 104.14. However, if the pair further decreases its value, then it could hit immediate support levels at 103.00, 102.68 and even lower at the 102.25 range.

 

[Luis ForexMart]

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: October 6, 2016

The GBP/USD pair is now trading within the 1.2370 range after the pair failed to take out in the 50-MA during the North American session and the Asian trading session. The two-year treasury yields increased by two points as a result of investors’ reaction to a heightened probability of an interest rate hike this coming December due to the positive data release of the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.

The GBP/USD is generally on the downside since market players are generally worried about a possible “hard brexit”. Should the GBP/USD break above the 50-MA level of 1.2751 points, then this could increase the possibility of a break into the 1.2789 trading range, which would then cause the currency pair to target the 1.2836 level of the 100-MA. However, if the GBP/USD continues to decrease, then this could cause the pair to break below the support levels of 1.2685, which was the pair’s lowest reach during the last trading session, and can also lead to the 1.2590 range.