Daily Market Report - Friday, Sep 01, 2023


Today traders across the globe waiting for the much-anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report after Thursday’s release of the core PCE price index suggests the possibility of an additional 25 basis points rate increase this year. Additionally, US weekly unemployment claims dropped to 228k from 230k last week. Futures now see a 12% chance of a September rate hike and a 43% chance of any more rate hikes at all, today’s US jobs report for August will be key in guiding these expectations. Investors should also closely monitor the release of ISM's Manufacturing PMI survey.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the August jobs report today at 12:30 GMT. The expectations are for 170k jobs to have been added to the US economy in August and the unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 3.5%. A strong outcome could reignite the dollar rally and put pressure on commodities and precious metals.


Global stocks stays flat as markets take a deep breath ahead of US jobs data for insights on the outlook for Federal Reserve policy. On Thursday, Wall Street ended slightly lower after The Fed's preferred inflation measure edged higher in July, reversing some of the prior month's sharp drop. The PCE report supports optimism about potential interest rate adjustments.


Crude oil prices traded with strong upside momentum throughout this week supported by the signs of a recovery in demand and the latest weekly API and EIA inventory data showed U.S. crude inventories fell despite earlier expectations of a climb. Meanwhile, a Reuters survey indicated that production from Iran rose to 3.1 million bpd in August, the highest since 2018, and offsetting the voluntary cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia.

In the currency market, the British pound recovered the early losses against the US dollar and the pound held strong weekly gains against the euro. During the previous session, Bank of England (BoE) Chief Economist and member of its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Huw Pill has indicated that he will vote to keep interest rates at their current 15-year high of 5.25% for an extended period rather than raising them much further.


The precious metal reversed from the weekly highs following the release of better-than-expected US weekly jobless claims and PCE inflation data. The recent rebound stalled at the hourly resistance around $1948 per ounce and showed multiple failures in the lower time frames. The expected trading range for gold today is between 1926 support and 1960 resistance. At the time of writing, the precious metal trades above $1940.

Economic Outlook

On the data front, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has released data on the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, a crucial inflation metric. In July, it showed a 0.2% increase from the prior month, aligning with market forecasts. Year-on-year, the index surged by 4.2%, consistent with expectations.

Moving ahead today, the important events to watch:

US – Non-Farm payrolls: GMT – 12:30

Canada – GDP: GMT – 12:30

US – ISM manufacturing PMI: GMT – 14:00

Technical Outlook and Review

The currency pair slightly rebounded from the early session lows; the immediate support remains below 1.0830 then 1.0800. On the flip side, the immediate resistance is located above 1.0880 followed by 1.0910.


The important levels to watch for today: Support- 1.0830 and 1.0790 Resistance- 1.0880 and 1.0910.

GOLD: Technically, the medium-term trend remains supportive while If the US dollar regains upside strength today, we could see a pullback in the precious metals. Today, the first nearest support level is located near 1938. If it breaks below this level, it will head towards the next support level, located near 1933 and 1930. On the flip side, the first immediate resistance level for the metal is 1948, then the stronger resistance is 1954/55.

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The important levels to watch for today: Support- 1938 and 1933 Resistance- 1948 and 1960.

Quote of the day “Short-term trading is very time-consuming. That is why even “successful” short-term traders can easily have negative real ROI.” - Robert Rolih.
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