Daily Market Report

[FOREX.com]

Bitcoin Analysis: BTC Plunges Below $70K​

Bitcoin has come under heavy short-term pressure, with the price breaking sharply below the psychological 70k level during today’s session and accumulating a decline of more than 6.00%. This move reflects increasingly relevant selling pressure and a clear deterioration in short-term demand.

By : Julian Pineda CFA, CMT, Market Analyst

Bitcoin has come under heavy short-term pressure, with the price breaking sharply below the psychological 70k level during today’s session and accumulating a decline of more than 6.00%. This move reflects increasingly relevant selling pressure and a clear deterioration in short-term demand.

The decline comes as market appetite has weakened over recent sessions, while concerns grow that large crypto holders may be carrying out significant liquidations. The break below key psychological levels has continued to weigh on confidence and accelerate the loss of demand strength. For now, this environment is already affecting the stability of the market’s most important cryptocurrency and could keep selling pressure relevant over the coming trading sessions.

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Is demand fading?​

Over the past few weeks, demand for Bitcoin has lost significant strength. This has been especially visible in the institutional market, where Bitcoin ETFs have continued to record steady capital outflows. Now, there has not been a positive inflow since May 14, 2026, and the week began with another outflow of nearly $500 million from the ETF market. This suggests that institutional interest in the leading cryptocurrency has weakened considerably in the short term.

Source: theblock

However, this is not only about weaker institutional interest. Lower activity can also be seen across the broader Bitcoin market through recent movements in Open Interest, which measures the total number of open long and short positions. In recent sessions, this indicator has already been showing weakness below the $26 billion area, and the latest price decline suggests that part of this drop may be linked to long positions exiting the market, as Open Interest and BTC prices are falling at the same time.

Source: Cryptoquant

Both ETF flows and Open Interest show that the lack of demand is not just a one-day event, but rather a trend that has been building for several weeks. The loss of appeal has become more evident across different market participants and is now being reinforced by the break below the psychological 70k level.

Adding to this, MicroStrategy announced that it sold 32 Bitcoins during the final days of May. Although the amount is small compared with the company’s total holdings, the move is symbolic, as MicroStrategy has long been seen as an institutional player strongly aligned with Bitcoin accumulation. Signals like this can accelerate short-term distrust and reinforce the liquidations that had already been developing.

In this context, the loss of appeal is already visible in BTC market activity and may be creating a broader sense of distrust. For this reason, the current selling pressure could remain relevant over the coming trading sessions.

Market confidence returns to critical levels​

Looking at the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, the indicator moved back near the 23-point area during the session. More importantly, it has entered “extreme fear” territory again, standing below last week’s levels and far from the readings seen one month ago. This confirms that the loss of short-term confidence has become an important factor for the market.

Source: Alternativeme

This behavior is key because, as long as sentiment remains in negative territory, it will be difficult to build a favorable environment for consistent crypto demand. If the index continues to decline, it could indicate that market perception is still deteriorating, limiting the possibility of a short-term demand recovery and keeping consistent selling pressure on BTC over the coming sessions.

Technical outlook for Bitcoin​

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

• Major bearish trendline regains relevance: The recent weakness in Bitcoin has brought the short-term selling bias back into focus. More importantly, a long-term bearish trendline that has been present on the daily chart since 2025 is also regaining importance. This structure, which acted as the dominant pattern months ago, could become relevant again if selling pressure continues over the medium term. However, the speed of the recent decline may also be warning of a possible excess of selling pressure, which could leave room for short-term bullish corrections if the market attempts to stabilize.
• MACD: Now, the MACD histogram continues to expand below the neutral 0 level, suggesting that the strength of short-term moving averages is shifting further into bearish territory. If the indicator continues to deteriorate, it could point to a more dominant selling bias over the coming weeks.
• RSI: The RSI shows a similar picture, with the indicator remaining below the 50 level and reflecting bearish dominance in short-term momentum. However, the RSI has also fallen sharply below the 30 area, which is commonly associated with oversold conditions. This may be warning of excessive selling pressure in recent Bitcoin movements and could open the door to mild bullish corrections over the coming sessions.

Key levels:

• 75,300 – Important resistance: A recent high area located near the 50-period moving average. A recovery above this level could reactivate a forgotten buying bias and open room for more consistent buying pressure over the coming trading sessions.
• 70,000 – Near-term barrier: A key psychological level and one of the most important short-term reference areas. This zone could act as a tentative barrier if bullish corrections appear, especially after the recent breakdown and the strong selling pressure seen on the chart.
• 64,000 – Definitive support: This area corresponds to the 2026 lows and stands as Bitcoin’s main downside barrier for the year. Moves toward this level could reaffirm the dominance of the selling bias and bring the major bearish trendline back as the dominant structure over the coming weeks.

Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow him on: @julianpineda25

https://www.forex.com/en-us/news-and-analysis/bitcoin-analysis-btc-plunges-below-70k/

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

 

[FOREX.com]

Gold Analysis: Is XAU/USD losing its shine?​

The trading session has not been favorable for gold. The metal is down more than 1.00% on the day and has moved back below the key $4,500 area, highlighting a short-term weakness that is becoming increasingly clear.

By : Julian Pineda CFA, CMT, Market Analyst

The trading session has not been favorable for gold. The metal is down more than 1.00% on the day and has moved back below the key $4,500 area, highlighting a short-term weakness that is becoming increasingly clear.

Selling pressure appears to be linked to the strength of alternative safe-haven markets, especially bonds. In this environment, gold has lost some of its relative appeal, as fixed income yields continue to offer a more competitive alternative for market participants. If this backdrop persists, XAU/USD could remain under pressure over the coming sessions.

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The bond market remains gold’s main rival​

In the current market environment, investors remain concerned about possible inflationary pressures for the rest of the year. This has supported expectations that some central banks could begin shifting away from stable rates and toward a more restrictive policy stance.

In the United States, for example, probability tables show that markets expect rates to remain unchanged until December 2026. However, by early 2027, there is already a probability above 40% that the benchmark rate could rise from the current 3.75% toward the 4.00% area. This suggests that market participants are beginning to price in the possibility of a more aggressive Federal Reserve over the next few months.

Source: CMEGROUP

These expectations have allowed global bond markets to maintain elevated yields, strengthening their appeal relative to gold. In the United States, 10-year Treasury yields remain near 4.5%; in Canada, yields are around 3.5%; and even in Japan, they remain above 2.6%. Beyond the specific levels, the key point is that yields have started to recover again in recent sessions, increasing the relative attractiveness of these instruments in the short term.

Source: TradingEconomics

This has not been supportive for gold. Bonds remain one of the metal’s main substitute assets, especially because gold does not offer yield. When fixed income returns rise, part of the demand for safe-haven assets can shift toward bonds, leaving gold in a less attractive position.

This loss of appeal is also starting to show up in gold futures activity. Trading volume has declined in recent sessions, and on June 2, just over 100,000 contracts were traded, one of the lowest readings since mid-May. This suggests a meaningful slowdown in market activity and confirms that, for now, conditions are not ideal for stronger gold demand to stabilize in the short term.

Source: CMEGROUP

Overall, stronger bond markets and lower futures activity may be weighing on appetite for gold. If bonds continue to offer attractive yields and capture demand as a substitute market, XAU/USD could continue to face relevant selling pressure over the coming sessions.

Is gold losing its safe-haven appeal?​

It is also important to note that risk sentiment deteriorated again during today’s session after new updates around potential US tariffs. The new plan includes tariffs on several countries, starting around 10% and potentially reaching 12.5%, bringing renewed concerns over global trade stability.

This decline in confidence is already visible in the Fear and Greed Index for financial markets, which fell toward the 54-point area. With this move, the index returned to “neutral” territory for the first time in several weeks, pointing to a loss of short-term optimism.

Source: CNN

In previous months, gold often benefited when confidence indicators weakened, given its role as a traditional safe-haven asset. This time, however, conditions appear to be different. Despite the deterioration in market confidence, gold continues to trade with weakness, suggesting that the metal is not currently the main destination for defensive flows.

This may indicate that capital is still moving toward other substitute assets, particularly bonds, which offer more attractive yields. For this reason, if weaker market confidence continues to favor other safe havens instead of gold, selling pressure on XAU/USD could remain in place over the coming sessions.

Technical outlook for gold​

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

• The bearish trend continues to dominate: Although gold attempted to recover in previous weeks, the move was not strong enough to challenge the long bearish trendline that has been in place since March. For now, this remains the dominant technical structure. If selling pressure continues to stabilize, this formation could remain the main pattern to watch over the coming sessions.
• RSI: At the moment, the RSI remains below the neutral 50 level, indicating that bearish momentum continues to dominate the average of the last 14 sessions. If the indicator keeps moving lower, it could continue to support a consistent selling bias over the medium term.
• TRIX: A similar dynamic can be seen in the TRIX, with the indicator line still below the central 0 level. This suggests that the average strength of long-term moving averages continues to reflect a relevant selling bias, which could remain important over the next few sessions.

Key levels to watch:

• 4,755 USD – Crucial resistance: A recent high located above the 50-period moving average and aligned with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the most relevant move on the chart. A move toward this area could put the long-term bearish trend line at risk and open the door to a more relevant buying bias.
• 4,600 USD – Near-term barrier: A neutral area that has acted as a retracement point in recent weeks and coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci level. Price action around this zone could reinforce a sideways phase and even open the door to a short-term range in XAU/USD.
• 4,378 USD – Critical support: A relevant low that coincides with the area marked by the 200-period simple moving average. A break below this level could confirm a dominant selling bias and extend the bearish trendline as the main structure over the coming weeks.

Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow him on: @julianpineda25

https://www.forex.com/en-us/news-and-analysis/gold-analysis-is-xauusd-losing-its-shine/

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

 

[FOREX.com]

S&P 500 Analysis: Is SPX losing momentum near record highs?​

As the trading week nears its end, one of the main short-term factors still standing out is the neutral tone in the S&P 500. The index has not been able to define a clear direction and, after falling close to -1.00% in the previous session, it is now attempting to recover with a gain of more than 0.7%.

By : Julian Pineda CFA, CMT, Market Analyst

As the trading week nears its end, one of the main short-term factors still standing out is the neutral tone in the S&P 500. The index has not been able to define a clear direction and, after falling close to -1.00% in the previous session, it is now attempting to recover with a gain of more than 0.7%.

Still, rather than confirming a dominant buying bias, this move points to a phase of indecision around the index. If confidence remains affected by geopolitical and economic uncertainty, this dynamic could stay relevant over the coming trading sessions.

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Short-term confidence moves into cautious territory​

Economic and geopolitical events continue to weigh on confidence in risk assets such as SPX. In the Middle East, although there have been no major new military escalations, there is still no clear path toward a short-term peace agreement. Several rounds of negotiations may still be needed before a formal deal can be considered, keeping the outlook uncertain.

In addition, the new USTR tariff proposals under Section 301 have brought the possibility of additional 10% and even 12.5% tariffs on several countries back into focus. Although there is still no clear confirmation on how the process would move forward, the issue revives memories of 2025, when trade tensions created significant uncertainty for the global economy.

Both events keep short-term uncertainty alive. This is already visible in sentiment indicators, with the Fear and Greed Index holding near 55 points after moving down from “greed” territory into “neutral” territory. Rather than showing consistent optimism, the market is reflecting a more cautious stance, which makes it harder for risk appetite to gain clear traction in the short term.

Source: CNN

This moderation is also visible in flows for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY). Since May 26, capital inflows have started to slow, and this week even saw an outflow of more than $2.1 billion. Alongside weaker confidence, this suggests demand activity within the S&P 500 has become more mixed and less stable in the short term.

Source: ETFCOM

Overall, the uncertainty still shaping market confidence may be making it harder for risk appetite to remain consistent. In this environment, demand for equity indices such as the S&P 500 could be losing traction, leaving room for a more relevant phase of indecision in the coming sessions.

Could the NFP release be relevant?​

Tomorrow, the United States will publish the NFP employment report for May. The market currently expects 85,000 new jobs, compared with 115,000 jobs created in April. This release could generate two important readings for the market.

In the first scenario, if NFP comes in much stronger than expected, the effect could be counterproductive for the S&P 500. Although a solid labor market is usually seen as a positive signal for the economy, it could also strengthen expectations of a more aggressive Federal Reserve. That would increase the risk of higher US rates, reduce the available liquidity environment, and make consumer activity more difficult. In that case, conditions would not be ideal for consistent demand to return to the equity market, and a phase of neutrality or indecision could remain present in the SPX.

On the other hand, if the employment reading comes in close to expectations, it could create a calmer short-term environment. A moderate figure would show that the labor market remains stable without creating too many alarms for the central bank around additional inflation pressures. Under this scenario, buying pressure could regain relevance in the S&P 500 over the coming sessions.

Technical outlook for the S&P 500​

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

• Aggressive trendline begins to slow: Since the final days of March, the SPX has maintained a bullish trendline that remains the most relevant short-term technical structure. However, the recent neutral tone is starting to question the continuity of this formation. If buying pressure fails to regain traction, room could open for a sideways range in the coming sessions.
• MACD: At the moment, the MACD histogram remains very close to the 0 line, pointing to a balance in the strength of short-term moving averages. This behavior highlights a possible phase of neutrality in price action and, if it continues, could make indecision more relevant over the coming sessions.
• RSI: The RSI has started to pull back from overbought territory, marked by the 70 level. This suggests that buying momentum over the last 14 sessions is starting to lose traction. If the indicator fails to recover the bullish dynamic seen in previous weeks, it could warn of a more relevant phase of indecision.

Key levels:

• 7,700 points – Relevant resistance: With no historical references above current levels, this area stands as the most important psychological zone for bullish moves. It also aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci trend-based extension. A move toward this level could restore short-term buying dominance and extend the aggressive bullish trendline over the coming weeks.
• 7,460 points – Near-term barrier: A recent retracement level that acts as the immediate support to watch. This area could serve as a tentative barrier if selling corrections begin to appear in the SPX over the coming sessions.
• 7,360 points – Key support: A relevant low area and one of the most important retracement zones of recent weeks. A move toward this level would not only break the current bullish structure but could also open the door to a more relevant selling bias on the daily chart over the medium term.

Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow him on: @julianpineda25

https://www.forex.com/en-us/news-an...sis-is-spx-losing-momentum-near-record-highs/

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

 

[FOREX.com]

Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Bulls Eye Yearly High Breakout​

USD/CAD is approaching a major breakout zone after a powerful recovery from the May lows. The next move could be decisive.

By : Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist

Canadian Dollar Technical Forecast: USD/CAD Weekly Trade Levels​

• USD/CAD has rallied more than 3% from the May lows and is now approaching the yearly highs.
• Price is testing a major resistance zone that could determine the next phase of the advance.
• A push through key resistance would validate a break of the yearly range and signal further upside- bulls vulnerable while below.
• Event risk on tap: U.S. CPI & BoC rate decision on Wednesday.
• Resistance 1.3967/83 (key), 1.4035, 1.4138/51 – Support ~1.3802, 1.3725/33 (key), 1.3617

USD/CAD has extended its recovery from the May lows and is now within striking distance of a major resistance zone near the yearly highs. The advance has strengthened the broader technical outlook and brings the prospect of a breakout of the yearly range into focus. With key U.S. inflation data and the Bank of Canada rate decision on tap this week, the pair is approaching a critical inflection point that could determine whether the rally accelerates or stalls at resistance. Battle lines drawn on the USD/CAD weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Loonie setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD Weekly​

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Canadian Dollar Technical Forecast we noted that USD/CAD was, “attempting to validate a break above a key pivot zone, and the focus is on the weekly close with respect to 1.3725/33. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 1.3617 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 1.3808 ultimately needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.” USD/CAD closed above 1.38 later that week with the subsequent rally now extending more than 3% off the May low. The advance takes price within striking distance of a pivotal resistance zone at 1.3967/83- a region defied by the yearly (March) swing high, the 2022 high and the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 decline. The focus is on a reaction off this zone IF reached with a topside breach / weekly close above needed to validate a breakout of the yearly opening range and fuel the next phase of the rally.

Initial weekly support now rests back with the 52-week moving average near ~1.3803 and is backed by key support at the yearly open and the 2025 low-week close (LWC) at 1.3725/33. Losses below this threshold would suggest a more significant high is in place and a larger reversal is underway with subsequent support seen at the yearly low-week close (LWC) at 1.3617 and the low- close at 1.3563.

A sustained breach above this key pivot zone exposes subsequent resistance objectives at the 100% extension of the January advance at 1.4036 and the 50% retracement and the February 2025 swing low at 1.4138/51.

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Bottom line: USD/CAD is testing pivotal resistance at the yearly range high early in the month and while the medium-term outlook remains constructive, the immediate advance may be vulnerable below this threshold. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops- losses should be limited to the yearly moving average IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 1.3983 needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.

Keep in mind we get the release of key U.S. inflation data and the Bank of Canada rate decision on Wednesday. On the heels of last week’s strong NFP report, the focus once again shifts to the other side of the Fed’s dual mandate with the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) representing the last major data point we get ahead of next week’s highly anticipated FOMC meeting. Traders continue to assess the impact of higher energy prices with Fed Fund Futures now pricing a 74% probability that the central bank will have to hike rates by at least 25 basis points this year. This shift has offered a tailwind to the USD advance, and a stronger-than-expected pace of price growth could further fuel this rally.

Meanwhile, the BoC is widely expected to hold rates later this week, and the commentary, as always, will be key. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly close here for guidance. Review my latest Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term USD/CAD technical trade levels.

US / Canada Economic Data Release​

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

https://www.forex.com/en-us/news-an...-cad-bulls-eye-yearly-high-breakout-6-8-2026/

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

 

[FOREX.com]

US Dollar Rally Pauses Ahead of CPI as FX Majors Diverge​

The US dollar index stalls below its May high ahead of CPI, while major FX pairs send mixed signals across key technical levels.

By : Matt Simpson, Market Analyst

The US dollar index (DXY) is consolidating just below its May high ahead of the latest US CPI report, with inflation data set to determine whether the greenback can extend its rally. While the broader bias remains supportive of a stronger dollar, major FX pairs are sending mixed technical signals as traders assess the outlook for Fed policy, inflation and global growth.



View related analysis:

• Short Yen Bets Hit Record High, AUD Nears Net-Short Flip | COT Report
• Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Bears Tighten Grip with 60s in Sight
• US Dollar Outlook: USD Bulls Flex into NFP, AUD and NZD Slide
• Gold Outlook: Bulls Eye Rebound, Though Futures Exposure Remains Weak

US Dollar Index Stalls Below May High as FX Majors Send Mixed Signals​

US CPI in Focus as Dollar Rally Pauses Near May High​

The US dollar’s rally has stalled just below the May high as traders await Wednesday’s US CPI report. It seems unlikely that a softer inflation reading will be delivered, although such an outcome could trigger the larger market reaction, as traders would likely send US yields and the dollar lower while increasing expectations for a Fed rate cut.

However, given the recent strength in the ISM surveys, NFP report, and elevated crude oil prices amid the ongoing conflict with Iran, I would not hold my breath for a downside surprise. More broadly, the US dollar index remains underpinned by strong bullish momentum, making at least a retest of the May high—and potentially a breakout—appear feasible over the near term.

Source: BLS, ISM, LSEG

US Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Analysis​

DXY Daily Chart Analysis​

The daily chart shows the rally from the May low remains strong overall, despite a loss of momentum so far this week. A small spinning-top doji formed on Monday ahead of Tuesday’s potentially bullish hammer. The US Dollar Index closed above the monthly R1 pivot point and remains well above the 10- and 20-day EMAs, which are in bullish sequence and pointing firmly higher.

Source: ICE, TradingView

​

DXY 1-Hour Chart Signals Further Upside Potential​

The 1-hour chart shows an ABC correction has formed, with a prominent swing low hinting that the pullback may already be complete.

Ultimately, the bias remains bullish while the US Dollar Index holds above Friday’s bullish outside-day low (99.13), although there is plenty of potential support ahead of that swing low for bulls to consider buying dips. With the index sitting just below its May high and fundamentals remaining supportive, a break above 100.50 could be on the cards.



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FX Majors Mixed Ahead of US CPI​

Price action across the major FX pairs presents a mixed picture ahead of today's US CPI report. While the broader bias remains supportive of a stronger US dollar, several dollar pairs are approaching key technical levels that could either reinforce the greenback's rally or trigger a period of consolidation. With inflation data likely to shape expectations for Fed policy, traders may prefer to wait for the CPI catalyst before committing to the next major directional move.

Source: TradingView.





EUR/USD: With a bullish bias on the US dollar index, it is difficult to hold any outlook for EUR/USD other than bearish. It is therefore encouraging to see a potential shooting star candle form on the daily chart, with its high perfectly respecting the May low. A break below 1.1500 brings the 1.1443 low into focus for euro bears.

GBP/USD: A burst of bullish momentum saw the British pound deny bears a break of the May low, for now. However, with such a cluster of overlapping prices overhead, I do not envisage an easy breakout for bulls from here. And given that sterling bulls handed back around half of the day’s gains before the US close, I am now seeking evidence of a swing high around the HVN (1.3427) or April low (1.3448).

AUD/USD: It has been satisfying to finally see the Australian dollar hurtle towards my 70c target after numerous warnings. While bearish momentum is waning, I suspect there is a decent chance it can hold above this key level for now. However, with speculation that the RBA may have reached the peak of its cycle, and some even discussing rate cuts, a move down to the HVN near the 69c handle could also be on the cards.

NZD/USD: The New Zealand dollar shares a similar price action structure to EUR/USD, with a bearish pin bar forming within a resistance zone on Tuesday before closing back near its cycle lows.

USD/CAD: The bullish rally has been impressive and could have further to go, given bearish positioning on Canadian dollar futures is not yet at a sentiment extreme. However, with USD/CAD pausing near the March high alongside a rickshaw man doji, it may take a particularly hot set of US inflation figures to see it break convincingly higher without at least a minor pullback first.

USD/JPY: I have outlined my case for MOF intervention several times over the past couple of weeks, and a hot set of CPI figures could be the icing on the cake that forces the MOF to pull the trigger. Needless to say, bulls need to tread carefully around these historic intervention levels.

USD/CHF: A rickshaw man doji formed to show a loss of momentum below 0.8000 on the Swiss franc, although USD/CHF hardly screams overbought, which keeps it on my preferred dip-buying watchlist for now.





This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of FOREX.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by FOREX.com.

View the full economic calendar



-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge

https://www.forex.com/en-us/news-an...lly-pauses-ahead-of-cpi-as-fx-majors-diverge/

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

 

[FOREX.com]

Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Cracks 70c, Options Signal More Pain​

AUD/USD falls below 70c as sticky US inflation, rising volatility and bearish options positioning point to further downside risks.

By : Matt Simpson, Market Analyst

The Australian dollar has slipped below the key 70c level as persistent US inflation supports the US dollar and dampens hopes for Fed rate cuts. With implied volatility turning higher, risk reversals signalling greater demand for downside protection, and yield spreads favouring the greenback, AUD/USD bears are increasingly setting their sights on the 69c handle.



View related analysis:

• US Dollar Rally Pauses Ahead of CPI as FX Majors Diverge
• ASX 200 Under Pressure as Tech-Led Risk Aversion Spreads
• Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Bears Tighten Grip with 60s in Sight
• Short Yen Bets Hit Record High, AUD Nears Net-Short Flip | COT Report

AUD/USD Forecast: Australian Dollar Faces Further Downside Risks Below 70c​

Sticky US Inflation Keeps Fed Cut Expectations in Check​

US core CPI was slightly softer than expected at 0.2% in May, while all other headline metrics came in as forecast. Yet there remains little for those hoping for Fed rate cuts to celebrate. US inflation remains elevated, and with peace talks between the US and Israel once again breaking down and fears of renewed attacks resurfacing, crude oil prices and inflation expectations have moved higher. US producer prices released later today seem unlikely to derail the inflationary narrative.

Source: BLS, ISM, LSEG

Elevated Inflation Pressures Continue to Support the US Dollar​

This continues to underpin the US dollar, to the detriment of the Australian dollar, which is being weighed down by risk-off flows, softer commodity prices, and fading expectations of further RBA rate hikes.

Not only did AUD/USD reach my unpopular downside target of 70c, but it also briefly traded below the 70c handle ahead of the US close. Whether it extends its losses from here will likely depend on headline developments surrounding the US and Iran. Regardless of whether we see an initial bounce or a deeper breakdown, I do not believe the Australian dollar's downside move is over yet.



Click the website link below to Check Out Our FREE "How to Trade AUD/USD" Guide

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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar vs US Dollar​

Volatility Awakens as Bearish Momentum Accelerates for AUD​

The weekly chart on the left shows AUD/USD formed a bearish engulfing candle last week, which is also a lower high and most bearish week in 10, and most volatile week in 7. Implied volatility levels are also curling higher after a 13-week decline. Given volatility is cyclical and down from its peak, an upswing in volatility is not to be unexpected.

• 1-week implied volatility level of 7.915 implies a 76.8-pip (1.1%) move in either direction, suggesting a 68% chance it will close within 0.6922 – 0.7076.
• 1-month implied volatility of 8.065 suggests a 161.8 pip (2.31) move in either direction, with a range of 0.6387 – 0.7161

Source: LSEG

Yield Differentials and Risk Reversals Point to Further AUD/USD Weakness​

The daily chart shows that the AU–US 2-year yield spread (purple) continues to point lower, having already signalled a bearish reversal in AUD/USD back in late April. Given the divergent monetary policy outlooks for the RBA and Fed, the yield differential could widen further and weigh on the Australian dollar accordingly.

Also note that risk reversals are confirming the move lower in AUD/USD, with demand for puts increasingly outweighing demand for calls. The 11-week 10-delta risk reversal (red), which captures demand for downside tail-risk protection, is leading the move lower.





This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of FOREX.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by FOREX.com.

AUD/USD Bears Eye 69c Despite Major Support Cluster​

As compelling as a breakdown appears for AUD/USD heading into today's session, bears may want to err on the side of caution given the cluster of support levels nearby. The 70c handle is a significant level in its own right, but it is also reinforced by the weekly S1 and monthly S2 pivots, alongside a 100% downside projection.

Despite this support cluster, the weekly and monthly VWAPs continue to point lower, confirming the bearish trend in price action. The bias therefore remains for bears to fade rallies and target the 69c handle, near the high-volume node (HVN).

Source: ICE, TradingView





View the full economic calendar



-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge

https://www.forex.com/en-us/news-an...-aud-usd-cracks-70c-options-signal-more-pain/

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

 

[FOREX.com]

Japanese Yen Outlook: Middle East Peace Hopes Sink USD/JPY, Lift AUD/JPY​

Middle East peace hopes fuel a risk-on rally, sending USD/JPY below 160 while AUD/JPY rebounds as the US dollar weakens.

By : Matt Simpson, Market Analyst

Middle East peace hopes sparked a broad risk-on rally across financial markets, lifting equities and metals while weighing on the US dollar. The shift in sentiment pushed USD/JPY below the key 160 level and helped AUD/JPY rebound from support, although both moves remain highly dependent on whether a formal peace agreement ultimately materialises.



View related analysis:

• Gold Plunges Beyond Seasonal Expectations, Yet Bearish Bets Are Falling
• Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Cracks 70c, Options Signal More Pain
• US Dollar Rally Pauses Ahead of CPI as FX Majors Diverge
• Nasdaq 100 Futures Slip as KOSPI Leads Tech Selloff Across Asia

USD/JPY Falls Below 160 as Peace Hopes Boost AUD/JPY​

Hopes of peace in the Middle East triggered a strong bout of risk-on sentiment, sending Wall Street higher alongside metals. AUD/USD and NZD/USD topped the FX leaderboard, while the US dollar came under broad pressure. Brent crude oil fell around 3% to 90.38, while WTI crude declined 4% to 86.40.

The key word here is hopes. Once again, President Donald Trump was driving claims that a peace deal was close, this time going a step further by saying that the time and location of the signing would be announced shortly. Yet conflicting headlines have already begun to emerge, with Iran and Israel denying the existence of any such agreement. That means risk sentiment could quickly reverse if this proves to be another deal that disappears as quickly as it supposedly arrived.

That said, with markets already looking stretched, I doubt we would see a complete reversal. In fact, I'd go as far as to say that any pullback could still attract dip buyers, given these moves may have further to run into next week. Of course, confirmation of a formal deal could provide the catalyst for risk assets to extend their gains even further.

Source: ICE, TradingView

FX Majors, Gold and Wall Street Performance Snapshot​

• The US dollar was the weakest FX major with the USD index forming a bearish outside day beneath the May high during its worst day in six weeks
• EUR/USD formed a bullish engulfing day with a marginal higher low above the 1.15 handle, with bulls now eyeing a break of 1.16
• AUD/USD formed a bullish engulfing day and was the strongest FX major, rising 0.8% in line with yesterday’s bullish bias to mark its best day in six weeks
• NZD/USD was a close second place and also formed a bullish engulfing day
• USD/CHF formed a sharp reversal lower following a false break of 0.80 and formed a bearish engulfing day, with the Swiss franc rising alongside the Japanese yen as a falling US dollar drove sentiment
• USD/CAD formed an elongated shooting star / bearish pinbar and false break of 1.40 to hint of an interim top amid an otherwise strong bullish trend
• Gold bulls enjoyed their best day in four months with pricing clearly trying to form a base above 4,000, rising in line with yesterday’s bullish bias and warnings of a potential bounce
• Wall Street indices were broadly higher with the Nasdaq 100 leading the charge and forming a prominent bullish outside day

This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of FOREX.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by FOREX.com.

Could Peace Deal Hopes Open the Door for Yen Intervention?​

With the US dollar on the back foot, it raises the question of whether this could provide an opportunity for Japan's Ministry of Finance (MOF) to intervene in support of the yen. We know that USD/JPY has struggled to remain above 160 for long in recent years due to intervention, although the fundamental backdrop has not been particularly supportive of that playbook. However, if a peace deal does come to fruition, a key driver of higher inflation expectations would effectively evaporate. The US dollar would likely come under pressure, potentially allowing traders to do some of the MOF's work for them, or giving authorities the chance to intervene at a more opportune time.

Ultimately, USD/JPY has signalled a potential swing high on the daily chart, opening the door for a pullback. The depth and pace of any decline will likely depend on whether a deal is signed. A failure for an agreement to materialise could instead see USD/JPY resume its advance and push to fresh highs.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: US Dollar vs Japanese Yen​

USD/JPY Bears Eye Intervention Zone as Volatility Returns​

The daily chart shows that volatility picked up notably on Thursday, with the high to low range on USD/JYP being its most volatile and bearish in four weeks. The fact a volatile bearish outside day formed just pips below the April 30 intervention level makes the chart the more compelling for bears, but of course they also need a deal to materialise before assuming a sharp selloff from here. But it is worth remembering that recent history shows that MOF interventions tend to coincide with tops on the USD/JPY lasting months.

Click the website link below to Check Out Our FREE "How to Trade USD/JPY" Guide

https://www.forex.com/en-us/whitepapers/

160.00 Re-Emerges as a Key Battleground for USD/JPY​

The 1-hour chart shows the surge of bearish momentum found support around the weekly S1 pivot and daily low of the day prior to April 30 intervention. Notice that the retracement higher is stalling around the weekly pivot point and 160 handle, making it a pivotal level in the coming hours. But in all the time hopes of a deal remain alive, I suspect bears will be seeking to fade into minor rallies in an attempt to take it lower.

Whether we see a real move to the downside of course hinges upon an actual deal materialising.

Source: ICE, TradingView

AUD/JPY Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar vs Japanese Yen​

With the Australian dollar closely tied to risk sentiment surrounding this elusive peace deal, the success of any potential bounce is also linked to its outcome. However, we have already seen a decent pullback across Aussie pairs, while AUD/USD has found support around 0.70. As such, I suspect AUD/JPY may have already formed a near-term swing low regardless.

A bullish engulfing candle just above 112.00 hints at a swing low, while the daily RSI (2) reached oversold territory the day before. The 1-hour chart shows a strong surge in bullish momentum from the weekly S1 pivot point.

Source: ICE, LSEG



View the full economic calendar



-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter u/cLeverEdge

https://www.forex.com/en-us/news-an...e-east-peace-hopes-sink-usd-jpy-lift-aud-jpy/

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

 

[FOREX.com]

Australian Dollar Outlook Ahead of RBA and BOJ: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, EUR/AUD​

Australian dollar pairs face key tests as traders brace for RBA and BOJ decisions. Technical outlook for AUD/USD, AUD/JPY and EUR/AUD.

By : Matt Simpson, Market Analyst

The Australian dollar led major FX gains on Monday as hopes of a US-Iran peace deal boosted risk appetite. With the RBA and BOJ both set to announce policy decisions, traders now face a critical test for AUD/USD, AUD/JPY and EUR/AUD.



View related analysis:

• US Dollar Longs Surge, Yen Shorts Hit Record High | COT Report
• Nasdaq 100 Leads Wall Street Rebound as Middle East Peace Boosts Risk
• Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Finds Stability Ahead of RBA, FOMC
• Euro Technical Analysis: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/AUD

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY and EUR/AUD Ahead of RBA, BOJ​

Australian Dollar Benefits from Middle East Peace Hopes​

The Australian dollar was the strongest FX major on Monday thanks to the risk-on tone driven by hopes of a peace deal between the US and Iran. Those hopes have yet to be derailed by fresh escalation in the conflict, unlike previous reported agreements. That has helped Wall Street indices hold on to their gains and even saw the Dow Jones print an intraday record high.

BOJ Expected to Hike, But Will It Support the Yen?​

We have two central bank meetings today, although it is debatable how much scope there is for a genuine surprise. The BOJ is expected to deliver a 25bp hike, taking its policy rate to a 31-year high of 1%. The key question is whether it will be accompanied by sufficiently hawkish guidance to justify short covering on the Japanese yen, given speculative traders had amassed record gross-short exposure according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report. I will not hold my breath, but it never pays to drop your guard where the BOJ is concerned.



This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of FOREX.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by FOREX.com.

RBA Set for Hawkish Hold​

The RBA is widely expected to leave rates unchanged. While there is a reasonable case that rates have peaked following three consecutive hikes, I doubt the Bank has the appetite to signal that yet, as doing so could undermine much of its work to date. Despite softer employment and growth data, policymakers can point to inflation remaining too high and the fact that a Middle East peace deal is not yet a done deal. That paves the way for a hawkish hold and leaves room for another leg higher in Australian dollar pairs.

That said, I still see scope for AUD/USD to dip towards 0.6900, AUD/JPY to retreat further, and EUR/AUD to extend its rebound once the current pullback is complete.

Source: RBA, LSEG

Australian Dollar Technical Analysis​

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar vs US Dollar​

The retracement higher for th Australian dollar extended on Monday, though stopped just shy of the 71c handle. The fact that over a third of the day’s range was upper wick suggests a hesitancy from the bull camp to break that level. Also note that it dits near the 50 and 20-day EMAs, so 71c marks a decent level of resistance for now.

Still, a hawkish hold form the RBA could at least help AUD/USD reach for 71c today, though we may also need a signed US-Iran deal for it to break materially higher.

Ultimately, I have not written of the potential for AUD/USD to turn lower when the current upswing is complete and head of 69c. But for now we’re trying to decipher how much juice bulls have left in their tank, and if a swing high will form around 71c or nearer the high-volume node (HVN) near 0.7162.

Source: ICE, TradingView

AUD/JPY Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar vs Japanese Yen​

The rebound from 112 came almost like clockwork. I had a hunch it could perform well after AUD/JPY formed a bullish engulfing candle just above the 112 handle following a four-day decline. A rickshaw man doji formed on the weekly chart and momentum is now pointing higher. If the RBA delivers a hawkish hold, as I expect, while sentiment remains buoyant following the Middle East peace deal, AUD/JPY should be able to extend its gains in the near term.

The 1-hour chart shows a solid uptrend, although resistance has emerged around the May VPOC. Regardless, I suspect bulls will continue to favour buying dips in the current environment.

The 114.00 handle is the next obvious target for bulls if prices break above 113.50. A bull flag is forming on the 1-hour chart, although traders may also look to buy dips towards Thursday's VPOC and the 50-day EMA around 113.00 in anticipation of another leg higher.

Source: ICE, TradingView

Click the website link below to Check Out Our FREE "How to Trade AUD/USD" Guide

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EUR/AUD Technical Analysis: Euro vs Australian Dollar​

The weekly chart shows EUR/AUD amid a retracement higher within its broader bearish trend, having established support around the March lows with a double bottom. It may have further upside potential in the coming weeks, although last week's upper wick warns that the rebound could be losing momentum.

The daily chart shows EUR/AUD has retraced lower for a third consecutive day, although the pace of the decline has not been excessive. With the prospect of a hawkish hike still on the table, there may be scope for further losses. However, my bias for now is to seek a swing low in anticipation of the next move higher. The daily RSI (2) is not yet oversold, but it is approaching that threshold.

Note that the 50-day EMA and monthly R1 pivot are currently holding as support. Below that, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and weekly S1 pivot sit just above 1.6300 and could provide additional support. If a deeper pullback unfolds, I would still be looking for a swing low closer to the monthly pivot point. For now, however, I suspect any retracement will remain relatively shallow, given the strength of the initial rally from the 1.6200 handle.

Source: ICE, TradingView





View the full economic calendar



-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge

https://www.forex.com/en-us/news-an...ahead-of-rba-and-boj-aud-usd-aud-jpy-eur-aud/

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

 

[FOREX.com]

Nasdaq 100 Analysis: Rally Stalls Near Record Highs​

The week continues, and one of the main factors starting to stand out in the Nasdaq 100 is the recent loss of momentum near record highs. This move comes after a strong recovery at the beginning of the week and shows that buying pressure has not yet stabilized in the short term.

By : Julian Pineda CFA, CMT, Market Analyst

The week continues, and one of the main factors starting to stand out in the Nasdaq 100 is the recent loss of momentum near record highs. This move comes after a strong recovery at the beginning of the week and shows that buying pressure has not yet stabilized in the short term.

Part of the recent recovery in confidence was linked to positive updates around the Middle East conflict. However, markets remain cautious ahead of tomorrow’s US interest rate decision. For that reason, the index could continue to show a phase of indecision over the coming trading sessions.

Click the website link below to Check Out Our FREE "How to Trade Indices" Guide

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Has confidence not fully recovered?​

Over the weekend, relevant updates emerged around the Middle East conflict, mainly tied to a possible tentative agreement between the United States and Iran. The agreement would point to a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz this week, which helped WTI crude oil quickly pull back toward the 80-dollar area in the short term.

First, the calmer tone around the Middle East and the reduction in the risk premium across financial markets allowed risk appetite to recover partially. This also supported a mild improvement in market confidence indicators. The Fear and Greed Index moved above 40 points and approached “neutral” territory, helping the Nasdaq recover part of its appeal as a risk asset at the start of the week.

Source: CNN

However, today’s session is starting to show a different picture. Rather than consistent buying pressure in the Nasdaq, the index appears to be entering a possible phase of indecision. This may be related to the pause in the recovery of confidence indicators as markets wait for tomorrow’s Federal Reserve decision. For now, markets are pricing in a probability above 99% that interest rates will remain unchanged at the current 3.75% level.

Still, the most important part may come from the central bank’s comments after the decision, as markets look for signals about the monetary policy path for the rest of 2026. So far, despite the recent decline in oil prices, the probability table still shows a chance above 40% of a possible rate hike toward a new reference level near 4.00% at the December meeting. This suggests that inflation concerns remain part of market expectations, and it is still unclear whether the Fed will lean toward a more restrictive or more cautious stance after tomorrow’s decision.

Source: CMEGROUP

With this in mind, the Federal Reserve decision will be key for Nasdaq. If the central bank signals that it could maintain a more restrictive stance, or even consider higher rates in the coming months, the equity market could face new challenges in sustaining its recovery. A more aggressive Fed could push US 10-year Treasury yields higher again, increasing the appeal of fixed income compared with risk assets.

For now, the recent drop in these yields below the 4.5% area has reduced part of the appeal of bonds and allowed demand to return partially to indexes such as the Nasdaq 100. However, if the Fed’s message revives expectations of higher rates, yields could recover and compete again with the equity market, which could limit sustained demand for Nasdaq over the coming sessions.

Source: TradingEconomics

Overall, confidence linked to the easing of Middle East tensions does not seem strong enough on its own to support consistent demand. If tomorrow the Federal Reserve suggests a more aggressive monetary policy stance for the rest of the year, Nasdaq could struggle to recover steadily in a higher-rate environment. This could reinforce a phase of indecision in the index over the coming sessions.

Technical outlook for the Nasdaq 100​

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

• Sideways range begins to gain relevance: Based on the movements seen in previous weeks, directional strength in the Nasdaq has not stabilized in the short term. For now, the price is showing a neutral phase between a possible upper boundary near 30,800 points and a lower area around 28,400 points. Until price action manages to break clearly out of this range, it may be difficult to see a more structured trendline develop over the coming sessions.
• MACD: Now, the MACD histogram remains quite close to the neutral 0 area, suggesting balance in the strength of short-term moving averages. This indicates that a phase of indecision has started to gain relevance in Nasdaq’s short-term movements.
• RSI: A similar scenario can be seen in RSI, as the indicator is weakening near the neutral 50 level. This suggests a balance between buying and selling impulses in recent sessions, reinforcing an increasingly relevant indecision scenario in the short term.

Key levels:

• ·30,750 points – Relevant resistance: Record-high area that currently works as the most important reference for bullish movements. Price action moving toward this level could reinforce the importance of a new buying bias and revive the bullish trend seen in previous sessions.
• 29,500 points – Near-term barrier: Relevant neutral zone that coincides with important short-term pullbacks. While the price continues to trade around this level, the phase of indecision could keep gaining importance and open the door to an extension of the current sideways range over the coming sessions.
• 28,420 points – Key support: Recent low area near the 50-period simple moving average. Sustained moves below this level could start to show a dominant selling bias and open the door to more consistent selling pressure over the next few weeks.

Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow him on: @julianpineda25

https://www.forex.com/en-us/news-and-analysis/nasdaq-100-analysis-rally-stalls-near-record-highs/

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

 

[FOREX.com]

Gold Update: XAU/USD slides after hawkish Fed signals​

The trading week continues, and so far, gold is once again showing clear short-term weakness. During the session, the price is down more than 2.00%, while selling pressure has returned shortly after today’s Federal Reserve decision and comments.

By : Julian Pineda CFA, CMT, Market Analyst

The trading week continues, and so far, gold is once again showing clear short-term weakness. During the session, the price is down more than 2.00%, while selling pressure has returned shortly after today’s Federal Reserve decision and comments.

This event has strengthened the bond market again and has also supported the US dollar, two factors that have made it difficult for XAU/USD to maintain consistent demand in the short term. Under this scenario, the renewed weakness could remain relevant over the coming trading sessions.

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Federal Reserve decision takes center stage​

During the session, the central bank kept interest rates unchanged in the 3.50% - 3.75% range, in a unanimous decision by board members. One of the main reasons behind this decision is that the 2.00% inflation target has still not been fully achieved, while average inflation levels remain above what was expected at the beginning of the year.

In addition, Warsh, the new Federal Reserve Chair, emphasized that inflation remains the central pillar of monetary policy management. He also noted that inflation staying above the target for more than five years can continue to pressure households. For this reason, markets did not interpret the comments as a signal of lower rates, but rather as a sign that policy could remain cautious to more restrictive over the coming months.

Another important event after the Federal Reserve decision was the release of the new dot plot, which showed an upward revision in interest rate expectations. The median federal funds rate projection for the end of 2026 rose to 3.8%, from 3.4% in March, reflecting a more restrictive stance among FOMC participants. Several members now expect rates above 4.00% by the end of the year, while only a minority project levels below the current range. Overall, the chart suggests that the Fed is not preparing for a near-term rate-cutting cycle but is instead keeping the possibility of elevated rates for longer, and even additional hikes, open if inflation persists.

Source: FederalReserve

In fact, this scenario of potentially higher rates sooner than expected is also reflected in the CMEGROUP probability table for upcoming monetary policy decisions. At the moment, the probability of a 0.25% hike at the September 16 meeting is starting to stand out, with the chances of another rate increase now close to 48%.

This probability has risen sharply after the meeting, considering that just one month ago it stood near 17%. It now also exceeds the probability of rates remaining unchanged in September, which is around 33.5%. This suggests that a potential rate-hiking scenario and a more aggressive Federal Reserve could be arriving earlier than markets expected a few weeks ago.

Source: CMEGROUP

For gold, this environment is not particularly favorable. The new outlook for higher-than-expected interest rates has started to support one of its main competing markets again: the US 10-year Treasury market. Shortly after the central bank decision, yields showed a relevant recovery and are now holding an upward slope, near the 4.5% area in the short term.

This behavior is partly linked to the message left by the Fed. If the central bank maintains a more restrictive stance or opens the door to higher rates, bond yields can regain appeal, increasing competition against gold as a reserve asset.

Source: TradingEconomics

With all this in mind, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision has not been especially favorable for short-term gold demand. A more aggressive outlook from the central bank has started to support the bond market again, which remains one of the metal’s main substitutes.

Because gold does not offer a fixed yield, it can lose appeal when bonds regain strength and offer higher rates. If this dynamic continues, part of the demand could keep moving toward fixed-income instruments, making it harder for XAU/USD to build a consistent recovery. In this context, selling pressure could remain relevant over the coming sessions.

Technical outlook for gold​

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

• Long bearish trendline regains relevance: Despite the recovery that the gold market had tried to maintain in previous weeks, the latest price declines have brought attention back to the most relevant technical structure on the chart: a broad bearish trendline that has been in place for several months. If selling pressure stabilizes with more strength over the coming sessions, this structure could continue to extend as the dominant pattern over the following weeks.
• RSI: Now, the RSI line has started to fall again below the 50 level, suggesting that average selling impulses are starting to gain relevance in the short term. If this dynamic continues, the current bearish pressure could become more important over the coming sessions.
• MACD: However, the MACD still shows a different picture compared with RSI. The histogram remains close to the 0 line, reflecting that there is still an important balance in the average strength of short-term moving averages. This also highlights that indecision remains part of recent price behavior.

Key levels to watch:

• 4,470 USD – Crucial resistance: Relevant high that aligns with the major bearish trendline and coincides with the barrier formed by the 200-period simple moving average. Price action moving toward this level could begin to put the bearish structure at risk and open the door to a possible dominant buying bias over the following weeks.
• 4,340 USD – Near-term barrier: Relevant neutral zone that coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement line. This point could work as a tentative level to watch if bullish corrections continue over the coming sessions.
• 4,000 USD – Critical support: Important low area that coincides with recent lows and represents the most relevant psychological zone now. Price action below this level could revive the selling bias seen in previous weeks and give continuity to the major bearish trendline as the dominant chart pattern over the following weeks.

Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow him on: @julianpineda25

https://www.forex.com/en-us/news-and-analysis/gold-update-xauusd-slides-after-hawkish-fed-signals/

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.