Daily Technical and Fundamental analysis for multi pairs.

[luckyanand12]

Kind of Bread & Butter buy pattern at EUR/USD | Oct 29, 2019
At H4 time-frame: We have a Bread & Butter look alike pattern. Classic target of Bread & Butter is 61.8% of whole retracement down against the bullish thrust shown on H4 in this trade. I set my TP 1.0 pips below FIB61.8 that is 1.11374

View attachment 45141

Technical condition on H1 also support a scalp buy trade, view below. This setup will fail if any upcoming H1 candle closes below previous engulfing bullish H1 candle that formed EMAs & RSI crossovers.
View attachment 45142

Fundamental: TD (TD Bank, N.A.) expects the Fed to lower rates by 25bp again this week, delivering the third consecutive rate cut since July. The FOMC is likely to communicate patience in deciding future policy moves after next week's cut as they assess the impact of the three cuts they have already delivered.



"We look for the Fed to temporarily pause before resuming rate cuts in Q1 2020," TD notes.



I agree with this bias. Fed is either gonna cut rate by 25bp or at least going to be dovish.

This sentiment is enough for completion of this small scalp trade.

US Advance GDP q/q had negligible effect, so I re-entered buy to continue with this analysis. Got way better entry price.

 

[luckyanand12]

Kind of Bread & Butter buy pattern at EUR/USD | Oct 29, 2019
At H4 time-frame: We have a Bread & Butter look alike pattern. Classic target of Bread & Butter is 61.8% of whole retracement down against the bullish thrust shown on H4 in this trade. I set my TP 1.0 pips below FIB61.8 that is 1.11374

View attachment 45141

Technical condition on H1 also support a scalp buy trade, view below. This setup will fail if any upcoming H1 candle closes below previous engulfing bullish H1 candle that formed EMAs & RSI crossovers.
View attachment 45142

Fundamental: TD (TD Bank, N.A.) expects the Fed to lower rates by 25bp again this week, delivering the third consecutive rate cut since July. The FOMC is likely to communicate patience in deciding future policy moves after next week's cut as they assess the impact of the three cuts they have already delivered.



"We look for the Fed to temporarily pause before resuming rate cuts in Q1 2020," TD notes.



I agree with this bias. Fed is either gonna cut rate by 25bp or at least going to be dovish.

This sentiment is enough for completion of this small scalp trade.

EUR/USD hit classical target of Bread & Butter that is 1.11374, but it can go up to 1.1160-1.1162 (high of Oct 24) because of FOMC (Fed came out to be dovish as expected).

 

[luckyanand12]

Bread & Butter sell in USD/CAD
Fundamentals: USDCAD retraced up by dint of dovish BOC statement today (BOC may cut Overnight Rate in Jan).

Then Fed rate cut of 25bp was announced later today.


But at present, the fact is rate cut by Fed and no rate cut by BOC and dovish BOC has already been priced in. Therefore, recent dovish FOMC press conference will push USD/CAD down again a little bit and it can reach 1.3105 (± 3.0) pips that is FIB61.8 of whole move up since yesterday.
Risk: SL 5.0 pips above today's high.

Technical analysis: A downward thrust that makes a ground of bread and butter, was formed with all candle closed below 3x3 SMA (blue line). The idea of bread and butter is market will restart going in direction of thrust after retracement, then it can go to 61.8% of retracement or even can continue further. Retracement started from ABC->61.8 expansion level yesterday and continued today by dint of dovish BOC.

 

[luckyanand12]

NZD/USD analysis | Oct 30, 2019
NZD/USD had already been trying to form bottom since Oct 28 around FIB50.0, then Fed rate cut and dovish FOMC press conference today helped it start bullish move.

Today's daily candle is most probably closing above trend predictor (red line), that technically will shift the trend back to bullish.

Either we can enter one trade with two targets, one at ABCD161.8 (-3.0 pips) and another at abcd61.8 (-2.0 pips) or we can split our entry in two trades with two different targets.

Risk: SL 2.0 pips below the bottom (precisely below low of the downward spike caused today during FOMC press conference).

 

[luckyanand12]

NZD/USD analysis | Oct 30, 2019
NZD/USD had already been trying to form bottom since Oct 28 around FIB50.0, then Fed rate cut and dovish FOMC press conference today helped it start bullish move.

Today's daily candle is most probably closing above trend predictor (red line), that technically will shift the trend back to bullish.

Either we can enter one trade with two targets, one at ABCD161.8 (-3.0 pips) and another at abcd61.8 (-2.0 pips) or we can split our entry in two trades with two different targets.

Risk: SL 2.0 pips below the bottom (precisely below low of the downward spike caused today during FOMC press conference).
View attachment 45152

Modification:
Set buy limit 1.0 pips+spread above FIB50.0 of recent move up on H1.

 

[luckyanand12]

Buy EUR/USD post NFP | Nov 01, 2019

Fundamental: NFP came slightly better than forecast, then revision came pretty better than previous actual. Nevertheless, USD didn't show significant gain.

A weaker than forecast Average Hourly Earnings m/m seems to have played a nice role too to keep USD restrained.

Technical: If you remember the butterfly completed at 1st Oct (view EUR/USD post of Sep 30), I had written that it can turn to be a significant tool to determine further target (view EUR/USD post of Oct 3).

The trend has already shifted bullish on Wednesday as daily/D1 candle of Wed had closed above trend predictor (red line).

EUR/USD already had moved up to FIB78.6 against butterfly and now is the time of its erasal. The point were butterfly will be erased coincides with ABCD61.8, that strengthens significance of that point (1.1250-60).

 

[luckyanand12]

Buy AUD/USD | Nov 01, 2019

Fundamental: USD stays restrained despite better NFP, read more at fundamental part of EUR/USD-post of today.

Technical: Trend stayed bullish since Oct 10. Butterfly XABCD127.2 coincides with ABCD161.8.

 

[luckyanand12]

Bread & Butter sell in USD/CAD
Fundamentals: USDCAD retraced up by dint of dovish BOC statement today (BOC may cut Overnight Rate in Jan).

Then Fed rate cut of 25bp was announced later today.


But at present, the fact is rate cut by Fed and no rate cut by BOC and dovish BOC has already been priced in. Therefore, recent dovish FOMC press conference will push USD/CAD down again a little bit and it can reach 1.3105 (± 3.0) pips that is FIB61.8 of whole move up since yesterday.
Risk: SL 5.0 pips above today's high.

Technical analysis: A downward thrust that makes a ground of bread and butter, was formed with all candle closed below 3x3 SMA (blue line). The idea of bread and butter is market will restart going in direction of thrust after retracement, then it can go to 61.8% of retracement or even can continue further. Retracement started from ABC->61.8 expansion level yesterday and continued today by dint of dovish BOC.


View attachment 45151

We are continuing with sell trade of USD/CAD in spite of better NFP today. To understand the reason, read fundamental part of today's EUR/USD-post.

 

[luckyanand12]

EUR/USD hit classical target of Bread & Butter that is 1.11374, but it can go up to 1.1160-1.1162 (high of Oct 24) because of FOMC (Fed came out to be dovish as expected).

As expected, it had gone to 1.1160-62 yesterday and had made a high of 1.1170 (penetrated high of Oct 24). The trade had been accomplished at target.

 

[luckyanand12]

View attachment 45065 Bread & Butter buy trade in AUD/USD
Here is a setup for Bread and Butter buy trade in AUD/USD on H4 time-frame. I have set buy limit a few pips below current price to obtain risk reward ratio of at least 1:1.

It had been accomplished at TP 3 days ago.