Daily Technical and Fundamental analysis for multi pairs.

[luckyanand12]

New buy limit NZD/USD | Nov 01, 2019

Fundamental: Besides the NFP fundamentals (read it in today's EUR/USD-post) I wrote earlier, weaker than forecast ISM Manufacturing PMI weakened USD; and NZD/USD already hit minor target 0.64523 that was abcd61.8 (view abcd61.8 in previous NZD/USD-post).

Technical at daily/D1 time-frame: Technical analysis for the pair is still same as I wrote earlier and we can target ABCD 161.8 (major target). It is not overbought yet, so there is enough room for it to go to the major target. But we should wait for a minor downward retracement for better entry price.

At H1 time-frame: I have placed buy limit at 30% retracement (+spread) of recent swing made on H1 after FOMC. If we compare the SL with target, we have almost 1:2::risk:reward.

 

[luckyanand12]

Buy AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY | Nov 05, 2019

Fundamental:
About JPY: The most traded JPY pair (USD/JPY) has been recovering since last of Aug as US-China trade war has been being subdued. A short down move occurred between Sept 19 and Oct 3 but it was just a ABCD↓ pullback, then the pair continued moving up. Recent negative news about US-China trade deal caused a sharp fall in JPY pairs on Oct 31 but the pairs soon started recovery as positive news (ref1, ref2, ref3) about the same came on Nov 1.

Today's news about US tariff on China and probability of BOJ's action (ref1, ref2) helped the pair to gain a bit more, and it has almost erased fall of Oct 31.

About AUD: AUD/USD changed trend to bullish in first week of Oct and kept up-trending for the whole month. RBA didn't seem as dovish as many analysts expected, although economic data from Australia in last one month was mixed with most of them being bearish (ref1, ref2). AUD seems to be a proxy currency of China in most of the cases, positive China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI helped AUD to gain.

About NZD: NZD/USD also changed trend to bullish in first week of Oct and kept up-trending for the whole month. Positive ANZ business confidence and change in Westpac view about NZ interest rate also helped the currency. Fall in NZD started on Monday but it took support as RBNZ Gov Orr Spoke.

Technical:
If you have read my previous analysis of AUD and NZD, you know that I've been in bullish side. USD/JPY has been bullish too at the same time, which makes a perfect scenario to go long in AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY.

Fall in NZD started on Monday but it took support as RBNZ Gov Orr Spoke. Then today's news about US tariff on China made an engulfing bullish candle on H1 and I entered buy. At the same time, engulfing bullish candle in AUD was made too and I entered buy in AUD/JPY too. I was not expecting RBA to be as dovish in upcoming RBA statement today, so there was no contradiction to my bullish view.

These fundamental and technical factors are sufficient to make both pairs penetrate/touch their previous swing highs.

Risk: This setup (in both pairs) will fail if H1 candle closes below low of engulfing candle.

Note: All news and ref (references) mentioned by me, have their links but I am afraid that external links may be violation of FPA terms; so I didn't hyperlinked them here. You can either search them (those news) at Google or read them at my blog.

 

[luckyanand12]

Buy AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY | Nov 05, 2019

Fundamental:
About JPY: The most traded JPY pair (USD/JPY) has been recovering since last of Aug as US-China trade war has been being subdued. A short down move occurred between Sept 19 and Oct 3 but it was just a ABCD↓ pullback, then the pair continued moving up. Recent negative news about US-China trade deal caused a sharp fall in JPY pairs on Oct 31 but the pairs soon started recovery as positive news (ref1, ref2, ref3) about the same came on Nov 1.

Today's news about US tariff on China and probability of BOJ's action (ref1, ref2) helped the pair to gain a bit more, and it has almost erased fall of Oct 31.

About AUD: AUD/USD changed trend to bullish in first week of Oct and kept up-trending for the whole month. RBA didn't seem as dovish as many analysts expected, although economic data from Australia in last one month was mixed with most of them being bearish (ref1, ref2). AUD seems to be a proxy currency of China in most of the cases, positive China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI helped AUD to gain.

About NZD: NZD/USD also changed trend to bullish in first week of Oct and kept up-trending for the whole month. Positive ANZ business confidence and change in Westpac view about NZ interest rate also helped the currency. Fall in NZD started on Monday but it took support as RBNZ Gov Orr Spoke.

Technical:
If you have read my previous analysis of AUD and NZD, you know that I've been in bullish side. USD/JPY has been bullish too at the same time, which makes a perfect scenario to go long in AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY.

Fall in NZD started on Monday but it took support as RBNZ Gov Orr Spoke. Then today's news about US tariff on China made an engulfing bullish candle on H1 and I entered buy. At the same time, engulfing bullish candle in AUD was made too and I entered buy in AUD/JPY too. I was not expecting RBA to be as dovish in upcoming RBA statement today, so there was no contradiction to my bullish view.
View attachment 45218

View attachment 45219

These fundamental and technical factors are sufficient to make both pairs penetrate/touch their previous swing highs.

Risk: This setup (in both pairs) will fail if H1 candle closes below low of engulfing candle.

Note: All news and ref (references) mentioned by me, have their links but I am afraid that external links may be violation of FPA terms; so I didn't hyperlinked them here. You can either search them (those news) at Google or read them at my blog.

AUD/JPY trade has been accomplished at target/TP.

 

[luckyanand12]

Buy AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY | Nov 05, 2019

Fundamental:
About JPY: The most traded JPY pair (USD/JPY) has been recovering since last of Aug as US-China trade war has been being subdued. A short down move occurred between Sept 19 and Oct 3 but it was just a ABCD↓ pullback, then the pair continued moving up. Recent negative news about US-China trade deal caused a sharp fall in JPY pairs on Oct 31 but the pairs soon started recovery as positive news (ref1, ref2, ref3) about the same came on Nov 1.

Today's news about US tariff on China and probability of BOJ's action (ref1, ref2) helped the pair to gain a bit more, and it has almost erased fall of Oct 31.

About AUD: AUD/USD changed trend to bullish in first week of Oct and kept up-trending for the whole month. RBA didn't seem as dovish as many analysts expected, although economic data from Australia in last one month was mixed with most of them being bearish (ref1, ref2). AUD seems to be a proxy currency of China in most of the cases, positive China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI helped AUD to gain.

About NZD: NZD/USD also changed trend to bullish in first week of Oct and kept up-trending for the whole month. Positive ANZ business confidence and change in Westpac view about NZ interest rate also helped the currency. Fall in NZD started on Monday but it took support as RBNZ Gov Orr Spoke.

Technical:
If you have read my previous analysis of AUD and NZD, you know that I've been in bullish side. USD/JPY has been bullish too at the same time, which makes a perfect scenario to go long in AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY.

Fall in NZD started on Monday but it took support as RBNZ Gov Orr Spoke. Then today's news about US tariff on China made an engulfing bullish candle on H1 and I entered buy. At the same time, engulfing bullish candle in AUD was made too and I entered buy in AUD/JPY too. I was not expecting RBA to be as dovish in upcoming RBA statement today, so there was no contradiction to my bullish view.
View attachment 45218

View attachment 45219

These fundamental and technical factors are sufficient to make both pairs penetrate/touch their previous swing highs.

Risk: This setup (in both pairs) will fail if H1 candle closes below low of engulfing candle.

Note: All news and ref (references) mentioned by me, have their links but I am afraid that external links may be violation of FPA terms; so I didn't hyperlinked them here. You can either search them (those news) at Google or read them at my blog.

NZD/JPY also had reached the target pip to pip.

 

[luckyanand12]

NZD/USD analysis | Nov 07, 2019
Although I had entered a little early in NZD/USD (it retraced down a little more), I am still bullish in NZD as I was in previous analysis.


The last swing down on daily/D1 time-frame looks just like previous two downward retracements, it doesn't seem to be a reversal. These three harmonic retracements make a setup for further continuation.


A look alike 3-drive pattern was formed, 2nd drive was 161.8 of 1st retracement and 3rd drive was 1272.2 of 2nd retracement (these expansions have not been plotted on chart); thus it is mathematically fulfills the criteria to be a 3-drive.

3-drive is a reversal pattern which actually shows/is formed by the exhaustion of market speed, exhausted market makes slower 2nd and slowest 3rd drive and then collapse to cause a reversal. But, this 3-drive is not showing exhaustion of market because 2nd drive is way faster than 1st and even 3rd is faster than 1st drive. Although, market has respected this look alike pattern and cause the 3rd retracement, this 3-drive doesn't seem to be perfect and can't seem to cause full reversal. Hence, this pattern doesn't contradict with the idea of further upward continuation.


ABCD161.8 (0.64831) and a'b'c'd'100.0(0.64776) almost coincide. We can set TP in mid of them.

Risk: Setup fails if any D1/daily candle closes below c/a'. Note that minimum target of 3-drive is to erase the last/3rd drive. It means that if NZD/USD closes below c/a', the 3-drive will be said to have completed minimum target; then it will be considered significant despite it's not perfect, so then it may cause even further fall.

 

[luckyanand12]

USD/CAD analysis | Nov 08, 2019

Fundamental:

About USD
Last US-NFP came to be 128K vs forecast 90K. Revision of previous NFP was also significantly positive, revised from 136K to 180K.

US-China trade deal has been making positive progress. Trump is trying his best to have a good deal ahead of 2020 US presidential election.

Hence, overall outlook seems positive.


About CAD
Last GDP release was 0.1% less than forecast. Probability of upcoming policy rate cut by BOC has Kept CAD restrained, CAD has lost against USD whereas other currencies like AUD, NZD and EUR had gained against USD in last week of Oct .

Today released employment data came to be -1.8K vs forecast 14.7K.

Hence, recent outlook seems negative.


Technical:

BC move made a small bullish gartley shown in yellow color, so CAD was moving up and broke high of Oct 30 (BOC statement day) right after today's release of employment data.

ABCD100.0 coincides with FIB78.6 of the whole swing down, which makes this area important. This is the next target of USD/CAD.

 

[luckyanand12]

NZD/USD analysis | Nov 11, 2019
As per risk part of my previous analysis, NZD has technically turned bearish because the 3-drive has been fully validated as price broke below previous swing low.

We can target next support that is FIB61.8 of the whole swing up. Set TP 2.0 pips + spread above FIB61.8.

Risk: RBNZ Official Cash Rate and statement is due to release at 8 p.m. EST, Nov 12 ( 2 p.m. NZ time, Nov 13). 60% of analysts all over the globe are expecting a rate cut to 0.75% but 40% analysts including Westpac are expecting no rate cut and similar statement to that of Sep 25.

This uncertainty led NZD to a new low in last week and may continue to weigh on it more because professional traders sell during uncertainty.

Nevertheless, profit taking from sell positions ahead of the news may push NZ a bit higher; therefore current sell position has tight stop and we should move SL to BE as soon as we get +10.0 pips floating.

 

[luckyanand12]

Change/update: we should move SL to BE as soon as we get +15.0 pips floating.

NZD/USD analysis | Nov 11, 2019
As per risk part of my previous analysis, NZD has technically turned bearish because the 3-drive has been fully validated as price broke below previous swing low.

We can target next support that is FIB61.8 of the whole swing up. Set TP 2.0 pips + spread above FIB61.8.
View attachment 45320

Risk: RBNZ Official Cash Rate and statement is due to release at 8 p.m. EST, Nov 12 ( 2 p.m. NZ time, Nov 13). 60% of analysts all over the globe are expecting a rate cut to 0.75% but 40% analysts including Westpac are expecting no rate cut and similar statement to that of Sep 25.

This uncertainty led NZD to a new low in last week and may continue to weigh on it more because professional traders sell during uncertainty.

Nevertheless, profit taking from sell positions ahead of the news may push NZ a bit higher; therefore current sell position has tight stop and we should move SL to BE as soon as we get +10.0 pips floating.

 

[luckyanand12]

GBP/USD technical analysis | Nov 12, 2019

The bullish thrust with all candles (7 bullish candles) closed above 3-3 SMA (blue line) makes a ground for Bread & Butter and Double Repo patterns.

Bread and Butter pattern had already completed with leg BC. Then price closed back below 3-3 SMA on Nov 5, which makes a sort of Double Repo. It's not a perfect Double Repo because it has taken almost 10 candles to form it wheres a perfect Double Repo is supposed to be formed within 3-6 candles. Nevertheless, further retracement still seems to be on the table.

Classical target of Double Repo is FIB50.0 of thrust (1.26027 - light green horizontal line) that makes a support cluster with ABCD161.8 and abcd127.2. GBP/USD is very sensitive to any news related to Brexit, so we are not taking this farther target.

Other support is FIB38.2 (1.26991 - light green horizontal line) that almost coincides with ABCD127.2 and abcd100. We are not taking this target either because we want to exit as early as possible especially if very nearer target can give good risk:reward.

We are targeting ABCD100.0 (+2.0 pips & spreads) and had moved our SL to BE already.

 

[luckyanand12]

Bullish Garley/222 pattern at EUR/USD

FIB61.8 (1.09939 - light green horizontal line) of upswing XA almost coincides with ABCD100.0, which makes a bullish gartley/222 pattern on D1/daily time-frame. The round no. 1.10000 also coincides with support cluster area formed between FIB61.8 and ABCD161.8, that makes this area even more significant.

It still keeps the chances of bullish continuation of EUR/USD intact. Earlier we had similar view. If EUR/USD makes a bullish candle or chart pattern on H1 even after closure of D1 below FIB61.8, chances of bullish reversal will still be on the table. However, if prices goes to D area but doesn't close below the FIB level; it will plot even stronger scenario for bullish reversal.