Daily Technical and Fundamental analysis for multi pairs.

[luckyanand12]

Bullish Garley/222 pattern at EUR/USD

FIB61.8 (1.09939 - light green horizontal line) of upswing XA almost coincides with ABCD100.0, which makes a bullish gartley/222 pattern on D1/daily time-frame. The round no. 1.10000 also coincides with support cluster area formed between FIB61.8 and ABCD161.8, that makes this area even more significant.

It still keeps the chances of bullish continuation of EUR/USD intact. Earlier we had similar view. If EUR/USD makes a bullish candle or chart pattern on H1 even after closure of D1 below FIB61.8, chances of bullish reversal will still be on the table. However, if prices goes to D area but doesn't close below the FIB level; it will plot even stronger scenario for bullish reversal.

View attachment 45342

EUR/USD already penetrated FIB61.8 (1.09939), if doesn't stop here; it may fall to target of double top (1.0662).

 

[luckyanand12]

EUR/USD already penetrated FIB61.8 (1.09939), if doesn't stop here; it may fall to target of double top (1.0662).
View attachment 45393

Correction: if doesn't stop here; it may fall to target of double top (1.09662)

 

[luckyanand12]

USD/JPY made Rising Wedge and Head & Shoulder patterns

Here is our sell trade setup on D1/daily time-frame based on the Rising Wedge pattern:

Here is a sort of Head & Shoulder pattern on H4 time-frame:

Risk: SL above right shoulder.

Fundamental: In this week, we're not expecting any conclusive positive news about US-China trade deal phase1, so bullish optimism will wane a bit. We are not expecting US retail sales to surprise either. Note that USD/JPY fell despite recent US data (CPI, core CPI, PPI and core PPI) were neutral/slightly positive (not surprisingly positive though). It shows market's reluctance to buy greenback this week.

 

[luckyanand12]

NZD/USD analysis | Nov 13, 2019

The 3-drive pattern mentioned in previous analysis has completed its minimum target on Nov 08 as price closed below low of Oct 30. Besides this technical factor, the fundamental factor of the fall was probability of Official Cash Rate Cut. But RBNZ didn't cut OCR today and this surprise built bullish scenario back again as the price erased fall of almost last six trading days in minutes. Not only did it erase the fall but also stayed around 0.6400 until end of RBNZ press conference. In press conference, governor Orr said that economy as per his assessment is doing well, so he doesn't see a need of rate cut.



On daily/D1 time-frame: target is where ABCD161.8 & abcd61.8 coincides, this area also makes a resistance cluster with FIB50.0 of whole swing down and previous swing lows.
View attachment 45360

On H1 time-frame: Overbought RSI makes a ground for some downward correction/retracement. FIB50.0 coincides with previous swing high, which makes this price level a significant support. If the pair retraces down to this support level, there is high probability that it may return back to upside from here. Therefore, we have a buy limit here. However, we cannot be sure that it will retrace down to this support level, so we have already entered half buy position and kept half for buy limit.
View attachment 45361

The buy limit was activated yesterday as NZD/USD retraced down.

 

[luckyanand12]

The minimum TP target, FIB50.0 of whole swing up between Aug 7 - Oct 28, has been hit. The trade has been accomplished at TP. We may re-enter sell again after 30% upward retracement of total move down from peak of right shoulder, C.

As written earlier, we planned to re-enter a sell position for next target. In order to mitigate risk in this position, we are risking only half of what we already made in previous positions. We have set our sell limit at 30% retracement level of recent move down from C/the top of right shoulder.

 

[luckyanand12]

As written earlier, we planned to re-enter a sell position for next target. In order to mitigate risk in this position, we are risking only half of what we already made in previous positions. We have set our sell limit at 30% retracement level of recent move down from C/the top of right shoulder.

Ahead of text release of speech of BOC's Poloz, profit taking from sell positions may relieve pressure from CAD a bit. And the resultant retracement up may help the sell limit get activated.

 

[luckyanand12]

Ahead of text release of speech of BOC's Poloz, profit taking from sell positions may relieve pressure from CAD a bit. And the resultant retracement up may help the sell limit get activated.

The sell limit was activated in Tokyo session as price really had retraced up ahead of text release of BOC Poloz's speech.

 

[luckyanand12]

Sell AUD/JPY | AUD analysis
About AUD : AUD/USD clearly had shifted to bearish trend as it on Nov 14 had closed below swing low of Oct 25 on D1. It had reached FIB61.8 of whole swing up on D1/daily-time frame made between Oct 2 & Oct 31. Recent unemployment data from Australia was significantly weaker than forecast, which has acted as the main bear factor.
Besides Austrian economic data, Waning out optimism of US-China trade deal phase 1 also weighed on AUD.

About JPY: There had already been a bearish breakout of wedge in USD/JPY.

The trade:
Today's negative news of US-China trade deal worked just like a triggering factor. While USD/JPY and AUD/USD are going down together, selling AUD against JPY is very good idea. Target FIB61.8 on D1 of AUD/JPY. Set SL above the price before triggering news.

 

[luckyanand12]

Sell AUD/JPY | AUD analysis
About AUD : AUD/USD clearly had shifted to bearish trend as it on Nov 14 had closed below swing low of Oct 25 on D1. It had reached FIB61.8 of whole swing up on D1/daily-time frame made between Oct 2 & Oct 31. Recent unemployment data from Australia was significantly weaker than forecast, which has acted as the main bear factor.
Besides Austrian economic data, Waning out optimism of US-China trade deal phase 1 also weighed on AUD.
View attachment 48622


About JPY: There had already been a bearish breakout of wedge in USD/JPY.

The trade:
Today's negative news of US-China trade deal worked just like a triggering factor. While USD/JPY and AUD/USD are going down together, selling AUD against JPY is very good idea. Target FIB61.8 on D1 of AUD/JPY. Set SL above the price before triggering news.
View attachment 48623

Having seen significantly weaker employment data, I am not expecting any hawkishness in upcoming Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes of RBA's board despite last CPI was firm.

 

[luckyanand12]

Since we already made profit in first trades of USD/CHF and CAD/CHF, their re-entered positions has have been closed today at BE as a precautionary measure because
1. FOMC is ahead
2. I don't deem CHF strong anymore because stagnation for 3 days on daily time-frame of USD/CHF made the fall slower than CD leg of garley formed on same time-frame of USD/CHF (view previous analysis of USD/CHF for reference).