Daily Technical and Fundamental analysis for multi pairs.

[luckyanand12]

CAD/JPY and USD/CAD analysis

Besides our existing bearish bias on JPY pairs (bullish on JPY); today's tweet1 (link cannot be given, read my blog/site) and tweet2 create uncertainty about US-China trade deal which makes JPY (the save haven) even more bullish.

Our USD/CAD scenario already shows that we've recently been bearish in CAD. CAD resumed its fall/rise in USD/CAD after a minor downward retracement at USD/CAD. Since we are bearish in USD/JPY, we have now preferred to sell CAD/JPY instead of buying USD/CAD. However, we may tomorrow close CAD/JPY and enter buy in USD/CAD if FOMC will be hawkish.
Alternative idea: half trade (a sell in CAD/JPY) and half trade (a buy in USD/CAD) can be done together.

Basically we have to sell CAD again and we should sell it against the strongest one. If you have read my comment on USD/CHF, you know that I have closed re-entered sell of USD/CHF today; which means that I am no longer considering CHF strong. Therefore, re-entered sell of CAD/CHF trade (view its comment) has also been closed at BE and hence we had to find another strong currency to sell CAD against in order to resume selling CAD.

Here is what I see on CAD/JPY charts.

On H4 time-frame: A 3 drive look alike pattern is under construction:

On daily/D1 time-frame:

ABCD100.0 is our minimum target/TP. All other targets such as 3-drive completion point (80.368), FIB61.8 of the whole swing up (81.233) and abcd100.0 are beyond it.
Set SL above yesterday's high/point c.

 

[luckyanand12]

Moved SL to BE in NZD/USD. We have two split positions (read previous posts of NZD for reference), so actual BE is the average of BEs of the two.

 

[luckyanand12]

Sell AUD/JPY | AUD analysis
About AUD : AUD/USD clearly had shifted to bearish trend as it on Nov 14 had closed below swing low of Oct 25 on D1. It had reached FIB61.8 of whole swing up on D1/daily-time frame made between Oct 2 & Oct 31. Recent unemployment data from Australia was significantly weaker than forecast, which has acted as the main bear factor.
Besides Austrian economic data, Waning out optimism of US-China trade deal phase 1 also weighed on AUD.
View attachment 48622


About JPY: There had already been a bearish breakout of wedge in USD/JPY.

The trade:
Today's negative news of US-China trade deal worked just like a triggering factor. While USD/JPY and AUD/USD are going down together, selling AUD against JPY is very good idea. Target FIB61.8 on D1 of AUD/JPY. Set SL above the price before triggering news.
View attachment 48623

Closed AUD/JPY at BE. AUD seems not to be as week as it was in NewYork session of Nov 18 and Asian session of Nov 19. Actually AUD/JPY in London and New York sessions of Nov 19 erased total fall of previous two sessions (NewYork session of Nov 18 and Asian session of Nov 19).

 

[luckyanand12]

USD/CAD analysis | Nov 08, 2019

Fundamental:

About USD
Last US-NFP came to be 128K vs forecast 90K. Revision of previous NFP was also significantly positive, revised from 136K to 180K.

US-China trade deal has been making positive progress. Trump is trying his best to have a good deal ahead of 2020 US presidential election.

Hence, overall outlook seems positive.


About CAD
Last GDP release was 0.1% less than forecast. Probability of upcoming policy rate cut by BOC has Kept CAD restrained, CAD has lost against USD whereas other currencies like AUD, NZD and EUR had gained against USD in last week of Oct .

Today released employment data came to be -1.8K vs forecast 14.7K.

Hence, recent outlook seems negative.


Technical:

BC move made a small bullish gartley shown in yellow color, so CAD was moving up and broke high of Oct 30 (BOC statement day) right after today's release of employment data.

ABCD100.0 coincides with FIB78.6 of the whole swing down, which makes this area important. This is the next target of USD/CAD.
View attachment 45285

The (very next target) of this analysis has been reached.

 

[luckyanand12]

CAD/JPY and USD/CAD analysis

Besides our existing bearish bias on JPY pairs (bullish on JPY); today's tweet1 (link cannot be given, read my blog/site) and tweet2 create uncertainty about US-China trade deal which makes JPY (the save haven) even more bullish.

Our USD/CAD scenario already shows that we've recently been bearish in CAD. CAD resumed its fall/rise in USD/CAD after a minor downward retracement at USD/CAD. Since we are bearish in USD/JPY, we have now preferred to sell CAD/JPY instead of buying USD/CAD. However, we may tomorrow close CAD/JPY and enter buy in USD/CAD if FOMC will be hawkish.
Alternative idea: half trade (a sell in CAD/JPY) and half trade (a buy in USD/CAD) can be done together.

Basically we have to sell CAD again and we should sell it against the strongest one. If you have read my comment on USD/CHF, you know that I have closed re-entered sell of USD/CHF today; which means that I am no longer considering CHF strong. Therefore, re-entered sell of CAD/CHF trade (view its comment) has also been closed at BE and hence we had to find another strong currency to sell CAD against in order to resume selling CAD.

Here is what I see on CAD/JPY charts.

On H4 time-frame: A 3 drive look alike pattern is under construction:
View attachment 48639

On daily/D1 time-frame:

ABCD100.0 is our minimum target/TP. All other targets such as 3-drive completion point (80.368), FIB61.8 of the whole swing up (81.233) and abcd100.0 are beyond it.
Set SL above yesterday's high/point c.
View attachment 48640

Besides success of USD/CAD, CAD/JPY also successfully reached target.

 

[luckyanand12]

USD/CAD analysis | Nov 20, 2019

It made a mathematically perfect 3 drive. If you measure distances, you will find that 2nd drive is precisely 161.8% of 1st retracement and 3rd drive is precisely 161.8% of 2nd retracement.
Only glitch is 2nd drive whose speed is not harmonic with 1st & 3rd drive.

ABCD expansion 127.2 coincides with top of last drive, which makes it a significant resistance. From this point, USD/CAD started falling slowly and we entered sell.

Minimum target of 3 drive pattern is to erase the last drive. Nonetheless, we are not targeting bottom of 3rd drive.

If you look at retracements, it seems that a 3rd harmonic retracement may take place. Nonetheless, we are not targeting bottom of probable 3rd retracement either.

We are just targeting FIB38.2 retracement level of last drive with SL above today's top. It fulfills our risk management criteria i.e. at least R:R::1:1 or better.

 

[luckyanand12]

Sell AUD/CHF | AUD analysis

If you look at our previous analysis of USD/CHF, you will find that we have been bearish on USD/CHF. After retracing slightly up for last four days, including today, Nov 20; USD/CHF seems to have resumed fall and may go to next target as mentioned in previous analysis. Conclusion: CHF is strong.

As per our observation shown in pic below, AUD is weak.

Decision: The conclusions derived from AUD/USD and USD/CHF, makes us sell AUD/CHF. Besides the conclusions; we on 1H time-frame of AUD/CHF see that tendency of upward retracement, higher highs & higher lows, was broken when a lower high & a lower low were made.

 

[luckyanand12]

USD/JPY made Rising Wedge and Head & Shoulder patterns

Here is our sell trade setup on D1/daily time-frame based on the Rising Wedge pattern:
View attachment 45399

Here is a sort of Head & Shoulder pattern on H4 time-frame:
View attachment 45400

Risk: SL above right shoulder.

Fundamental: In this week, we're not expecting any conclusive positive news about US-China trade deal phase1, so bullish optimism will wane a bit. We are not expecting US retail sales to surprise either. Note that USD/JPY fell despite recent US data (CPI, core CPI, PPI and core PPI) were neutral/slightly positive (not surprisingly positive though). It shows market's reluctance to buy greenback this week.

In last few days, many positive and negative tweets/news about US-China trade deal came out, which kept JPY from gaining. USD/JPY didn't fall with such a speed that is anticipated after breakout of wedge pattern, meanwhile swaps on the trade kept increasing. Therefore, I closed sell of USD/JPY at BE as this new tweet came out.

 

[luckyanand12]

We updated our target and SL for buy trades of NZD/USD that were entered as per our previous NZD analysis. The new nearest target is XadY100.0 (around 0.64500) because all other targets mentioned in previous analysis are beyond it. New SL is below the opening point of engulfing candle shown in the pic below. This new SL is higher than average of BEs of the two trades, therefore now these trades are risk free and will be profitable even if they will be closed at the SL.

 

[luckyanand12]

Sell USD/CHF | Nov 21, 2019

This is the same gartley as we showed in previous analysis of USD/CHF. The nearest target this time is FIB50.0 of whole upswing because all other targets such as ABCD100.0 & abcd100.0 are beyond it.

Besides gartley, we have bearish grabber pattern. Yesterday's candle penetrated trend predictor (red line) but closed way below it, which makes it a bearish grabber. The grabber suggests at least taking out of recent low. Even if price falls to recent low, we'l have sufficient pips in hand to move SL to BE and still keep some room for upward retracement before reaching the FIB50.0.

Here is what we looked on H1 time-frame to enter sell position.