Elliott Wave Analysis by Admiral Markets

[Admiral Markets]

ABC zigzags lead direction of Forex waves

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD is unable to break above the 1.14 resistance level. Support (green) and resistance (orange) trend lines mark the boundaries and breakout territory. A push below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of wave X (purple) makes the current wave count less likely and a bearish variant more likely.

1 hour



The EUR/USD break of support (dotted green) increases the chance of a bearish ABC zigzag (green).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD is not able to break the resistance trend line (orange) and 100% Fibonacci target, which could be a bounce or break spot.

1 hour



The GBP/USD could have one more bullish push remaining via a wave 5 (grey). A break below the 50% or 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level would make such a wave 4 (grey) unlikely. For the moment price is respecting the 38.2% Fibonacci level.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY has broken the resistance trend line (red) and is now heading towards the Fibonacci targets of the wave 4 (green) correction.

1 hour



The USD/JPY bullish break indicates a continuation of the bullish ABC (orange) zigzag.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

GBPUSD in decisive zone according to waves and trend lines

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD is showing choppy price action between support (green) and resistance (orange) trend lines. Price remains entrapped between these levels and mark the boundaries of the corrective zone. A push below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of wave X (purple) makes the current wave count less likely and a bearish variant more likely.

1 hour



The EUR/USD break above resistance (orange) indicates a completion of the ABC (orange).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD has respected the confluence so far at the resistance trend line (red) and 61.8% Fibonacci target, which could be a vital and crucial long-term bounce or break spot. A break above resistance (red) indicates that the wave Y's are not yet completed. A break below support (light green) indicates that a new bearish wave structure could emerge.

1 hour



The GBP/USD indeed made one more bullish push yesterday via a wave 5 after completing wave 4 (grey). The wave 5 posted a higher high but the oscillator is showing a lower high, which has caused strong divergence (purple lines). A break above the 100% Fib level invalidates the bearish wave 1-2 structure. A break below the support trend lines (green) increases the chance of a bearish continuation.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY heading towards the Fibonacci targets of the wave Y (pink) correction.

1 hour



The USD/JPY bullish break of the resistance trend line (dotted red) indicates a continuation of the bullish ABC (orange) zigzag.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Major currency pairs arrive at invalidation levels

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD is still showing choppy price action on this 4 hour chart. Price remains entrapped the support (green) and resistance (orange) trend lines. A bullish bounce seems most likely if price manages to stay above the 50% Fibonacci level. A push below the 50% Fibonacci retracement of wave X (purple) makes the current wave count less likely and a bearish variant more likely.

1 hour



The EUR/USD break above resistance (red) indicates a completion of the ABC (orange). If price shows a bearish bounce below resistance, then a continuation of the wave 5 (orange) within wave C (green) is more likely.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD is trying to push above the major resistance trend line (semi dotted red). The breakout has been slow and sluggish so far and price is struggling to break above the channel (purple/green) and horizontal resistance (orange). A break above resistance (purple) indicates that the wave Y's are not yet completed and that a potential change of the wave structure could emerge. A break below support (light green) most likely starts a new bearish wave.

1 hour



The GBP/USD has pushed for a new higher high and is moving up towards the Fibonacci targets. The wave 5 posted a higher high but the oscillator is showing a lower high, which is causing strong divergence (purple lines).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY heading towards the Fibonacci targets of the wave Y (pink) correction. It is close to challenging the bottom of wave 1 (red line), which is the invalidation level of the current wave structure.

1 hour



The USD/JPY bullish break of the resistance line (red) indicates a change of the current wave structure whereas a break below the support trend line (green) could indicate the start of a new bearish impulse.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

EURUSD, GBPUSD squeezed between solid S&R

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD bounced at the 38.2% Fibonacci level but needs to break above the resistance (orange) trend line before wave X (purple) could be considered completed.

1 hour



The EUR/USD is building a bullish channel but the angle has been shallow, which increases the chances of a WXY (green) within a wave X (purple).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD broke above the resistance trend line (dotted red) but price still has one more long-term resistance trend line above it (brown) and a 78.6% Fibonacci level. A break below the support trend lines (greens) most likely starts a new bearish wave.

1 hour



The GBP/USD has pushed for a new higher high and is moving up towards the Fibonacci targets. The wave 5 posted a higher high but the oscillator is showing a lower high, which is causing strong divergence (purple lines).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY is challenging the bottom of wave 1 (red line), which is the invalidation level of the current wave structure. A break below the support trend line (light green) makes it more likely that the wave Y (pink has been completed).

1 hour



The USD/JPY bullish break of the resistance line (red) could see price complete the 5th wave, whereas a break below the support trend line (green) could indicate the start of a new bearish impulse.


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

EURUSD, GBPUSD build trend channels in bullish waves

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD has approached a resistance trend line (orange) which is a bounce or break spot. A bearish bounce would confirm the wave X (green) correction; whereas a bullish breakout would see the larger WXY (purple) develop towards resistance (red).

1 hour



The EUR/USD continues to build a bullish channel (purple lines) but seems to have completed an bullish ABC zigzag (orange). A break below that channel could start a bearish correction towards the Fibonacci levels of wave X (purple) mentioned on the 4 hour chart.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD broke above another resistance trend line (dotted brown) but price still has one more horizontal resistance level to deal with (red) before the uptrend has managed to break all of the long-term resistance.

1 hour



The GBP/USD is building a bullish ABC zigzag (blue) with Fibonacci targets above. One more 5th wave seems likely as long as price remains in the bullish trend channel indicated by purple and light green lines.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY is challenging the bottom of wave 1 (red line), which is the invalidation level of the current wave structure. A break below the support trend line (light green) makes it more likely that the wave Y (pink has been completed).

1 hour



The USD/JPY made a bullish break above the resistance line (dotted orange) and could have completed the 5th waves via a truncation (failure to break the previous high). This wave count would make sense once price breaks below the support trend line (green).



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

USDJPY bearish momentum aligned with wave outlook and Fibonacci

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD is in bullish trend channel (purple) with resistance trend lines (orange) closeby. A bearish bounce would confirm the wave X (green) correction; whereas a bullish breakout would see the larger WXY (purple) develop towards resistance (red).

1 hour



The EUR/USD needs to break below the channel before a bearish correction becomes a more likely scenario. For the moment a bearish ABC (orange) could be taking place but the wave count is vulnerable to change if price stays in the channel and/or breaks above the 100% level.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD seems to have completed the bullish ABC zigzag at horizontal resistance (red). Price is now testing the inner support trend line (green) and a bearish break could indicate a change to a downtrend. A break above resistance invalidates the current wave structure and indicates the potential for an uptrend.

1 hour



The GBP/USD seems to have completed 5 bullish waves within wave C (blue). Price is now respecting a layer of support (green) and has resistance above it. Price will need to break below support before a bearish momentum could start.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY is moving down lower with lots of bearish momentum. Price was not able to break above resistance, which was in accordance with the wave analysis of the previous 2 weeks.

1 hour



The USD/JPY made a bearish break below the support trend lines (dotted green) and seems to be starting a new bearish impulse.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

US Dollar weakness continues to rock the Forex boat

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD broke above resistance (dotted orange), which expands the larger WXY (purple) development towards resistance (red). As long as price stays in the bullish channel, then a continuation of the uptrend is likely as part of the Y waves.

1 hour



The EUR/USD has reached a confluence of local resistance (orange/purple/Fibonacci), which could be a bearish bouncing spot. A break above the channel could indicate an acceleration of bullish momentum, whereas a break below the channel could indicate a completion of the uptrend.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD broke above a smaller inner trend line (dotted orange) and is continuing the uptrend. The confluence of wave C's 100% Fibonacci target and the horizontal resistance are the main targets for the moment.

1 hour



The GBP/USD broke the resistance trend line (dotted orange), which placed the currency pair back in the uptrend.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY has most likely broken below the bottom (dotted green) if the 4 hour and daily candles can close near the candle low. Price can extend the bearish fall towards the Fibonacci levels.

1 hour



The USD/JPY could extend the 5th wave with extra extensions due to strong bearish momentum and lack of divergence.


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

EURUSD, USDJPY finally display flavours of momentum

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD has indeed showed a continuation of the uptrend within the waves Y as indicated last week. Price is now reached a heavy resistance zone (red). A break above it could see price continue towards the Fibonacci targets.

1 hour



The EUR/USD broke above the resistance trend line (dotted orange) and made a strong bullish impulse which seems best explained by a wave 3 (grey). Price could retrace for a wave 4 (grey) but must not retrace deeper than the 61.8% Fibonacci level otherwise the wave count is invalidated.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD remains in an uptrend as long as price stays above the support trend line (green). Price is showing signs of struggle now at the horizontal resistance (red).

1 hour



The GBP/USD is showing choppy price action since the break of the inner resistance line (dotted orange), which can be explained by an ending diagonal (purple 5 wave). Whether wave 5 has been completed remains to be seen and price could push higher if it stays above the support trend line (green). A bearish break could lead to a bearish ABC (orange) or 123.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY has reached a large 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of wave B (sea green), which could initiate a bullish rally or a correction.

1 hour



The USD/JPY could extend the 5th wave with an extension due to strong bearish momentum and lack of divergence via a wave 4 and 5 (orange). A break above the 61.8% of wave 4 makes the current wave count unlikely.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Wave analysis explains extension of US Dollar weakness

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD managed to break above the 1.15 resistance level (dotted red) after it completed the wave X (purple) last week. Price could continue to higher Fibonacci targets. The wave C (blue) could change into a wave 3 if price manages to extend the bullish momentum.

1 hour



The EUR/USD is in a neat bullish channel which is marked by support (green) and resistance (red). A bearish break below the channel indicates that price has completed the bullish momentum such as a wave 3 (green). The Fibonacci levels of wave 4 could act as support.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD remains in an uptrend as long as price stays above the support trend line (green). Price is showing signs of struggle now at the horizontal resistance (red) but price seems to be slowly breaking above it.

1 hour



The GBP/USD is showing a rising wedge chart pattern but this does not have to indicate an immediate reversal.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY broke the triple bottom (dotted green) and price is falling towards the Fibonacci levels of wave 5 (green).

1 hour



The USD/JPY has respected the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of wave 4 (orange) as mentioned yesterday. Price could extend the 5th wave with an extension due to strong bearish momentum and lack of divergence via a wave 4 and 5 (orange).


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

US Dollar's dramatic 'close and reverse' after completing waves 5

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD reached the 61.8% Fibonacci target before showing a 'close and reverse' formation which sparked strong bearish price action. However, the support trend line (green) needs to break before the waves Y of wave 4 (blue) can be considered completed.

1 hour



The EUR/USD did not break the outer support trend line (solid green) but it did break below the inner support trend line (dotted green) which makes it likely that a wave 5 of wave C has been completed. For the moment a bearish ABC zigzag (pink) seems the most logical path of least resistance for price. The wave count could turn into a 123 if price breaks below support.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD also is showing the same pattern as the EUR/USD. Also this currency pair was in a strong uptrend but reversed strongly during yesterday's trading and broke the inner trend line (dotted green).

1 hour



The GBP/USD is showing strong bearish momentum which makes an ABC (purple) zigzag the most logical pattern for the moment.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY is showing a strong bullish bounce after breaking a resistance trend line (dotted red). The bullish price action could be a first signal that the US Dollar can make a decent rally.

1 hour



The USD/JPY completed a 5th wave (orange) as indicated in yesterday's wave analysis before breaking the trend line. The subsequent bullish momentum has been labeled as a wave A but also could turn out to be a wave 3 if price can break above the 100% Fibonacci target.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”