Forecasts by EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, GOLD & dollar index

STRATEGIST

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Look my forecasts by main pairs and also GOLD, dollr index.
They made by my trade system "STRATEGIST".
Also you can see it on FOREX MILLION - forex forecasts - EURUSD




11.02.08


General view
This week (11-15.02.08) possible either continuing trend toward consolidation of the dollar or some correction. The last week the pair EUR/USD has been in the «triangle» formation and still will be there some time. The GOLD has formed turn around formation «head & shoulders» and looks like this week its «neck line» will be broken, in this case the GOLD will drop up to 851$ and of course this will be in favor of a dollar.

The correction of the dollar is more possible then its growth starting Monday, but in the long term the dollar will continue growth, this is why who has long term positions to buy a dollar I suggest continue to keep them open.



EURUSD




USDCHF



USDJPY




GOLD




Dollar index (DXY)
H4
 

STRATEGIST

Private, 1st Class
Messages
3
(15.02.08)


General view
The market is correcting. The data of “USA Trade balance” was released on Thursday, it turned out much better than it was predicted (–58.8 versus –61.8 forecast) and so most traders expected a vivid movement at the market right at this day, especially taking into account the release of such a good index. However, there was no luck, the movement was suspended after Ben Bernanke’s speech. But that’s the way it’s meant to be, the market can’t move in a single day in the direction of released news, traders should never run out of questions. That’s why a vivid movement will occur on Friday, after the news release, and it will be in favor of dollar.




EURUSD
The pair’s correction continues. On the 4-hours graph an ascending Elliot’s five-waves curve formed, with a final 5th wave at 1.4655 level. From that level I expect the correction’s completion and the beginning of a descending trend with a target at the lower bound of the “triangle” shape (M) on D1 to 1.4430 level, and further to trend line “G”, 1.4270 level. Breaking of “a-a+” trend will be a confirmation of descending movement’s beginning. On this day (Friday) TICS indicator, a very important indicator for USA, is released. I expect the development of such scenario on this day.


Daily
At the daily graph the pair is situated within a fixed range of “triangle” shape. Upon bouncing off its higher bound “M+” the descending 5th internal wave of the shape is developing now with the target 1.4420. If the higher bound “M+” will be broken, the pair will look forward to 1.5550 level. If the lower bound “M” will be broken, then to 1.3740. Dollar situation depends on the direction in which “triangle” shape will be broken.
http://www.forexmillion.com/images/GRAPHS/04_02_08/eurusd%20d1.gif -daily
http://www.forexmillion.com/images/GRAPHS/04_02_08/eurusd%20w1.gif - weekly




GBPUSD
D1 graph shows that the pair is being locked in a range. There’s nothing remarkable happening on H4 graph, except indicators saying that it is time for “a-a+” trend to be broken downwards. Upon its breaking the pair will start a descending movement to specified targets.

http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPHS/03_02_08/gbpusd%20d1.gif - D1
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPHS/03_02_08/gbpusd%20w1.gif - weekly




USDCHF
The pair has a strongly pronounced side trend. It should find the support upon touching the black dotted trend line, then it should forward to resistance at 1.1105. Only breaking of this resistance will confirm the pair’s leaving the range and moving towards target 1.1270.

http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPHS/03_02_08/usdchf%20d1.gif - daily
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPHS/03_02_08/usdchf%20w1.gif - weekly




USDJPY
The picture about the pair is turning out neatly from previous forecast: from support 106.63 it went up and broke the “triangle” shape. With its breaking two targets opened: 109.36 and 110.57 – the pair is on its way to them. There’s a possibility of return to the higher bound of “triangle”, level 107.60, from which an ascending movement to specified targets will recommence.

http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPHS/11_02_08/11_02_08_2/usdjpy%20d1.gif - daily



GOLD
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPHS/11_02_08/11_02_08_2/gold%20h4.gif - H4
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPHS/11_02_08/11_02_08_2/gold%20d1.gif - daily
 
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STRATEGIST

Private, 1st Class
Messages
3
18.02.08

I am sorry for a delay, there were problems with the internet


General view
It seemed that the last week behaved in such a way that should cause the dollar to continue its weakening. But as I repeatedly stated in my previous forecasts, that was nothing but a correction and the dollar will continue its growth as early as the European session opens on Monday. To tell the truth, dollar against euro will grow not as fast as against GBPUSD. This is caused by the picture over EURGBP: the pair intends to break the “triangle” shape at the daily graph and to go up to the level 0.7770. Gold with LS crude oil unambiguously show the descending movement, which is also in favor of dollar



EURUSD

H4
The pair is being traded in “a-a+” ascending correction channel. Bounce off the “X” trend line implies correction’s completion and, upon breaking the lower bound of “a-a+” trend, the beginning of a descending trend towards “M” trend line (the lower bound of the “triangle” shape). 1.4515 is the level of a minor resistance.


Daily
The pair is being traded within the “triangle” shape (“M-M+” channel), I expect its breaking downwards (breaking of “M” trend line). It’s clearly seen by looking through the candles that the current ascending movement from “Y” trend line is correctional. Bounce off “X” trend line implies correction’s completion and the beginning of a descending trend to “M” trend line (1.4430), and upon its breaking, to trend lines “W” and “Q” (1.4290).


Weekly
Owing to the support from the “Q” trend line, the “triangle” shape has been formed (“M-M+” channel). Its lower bound “M” has to be broken, leading to the breaking of “E-E+” ascending trend and the movement towards “N” trend line (1.34/1.33).
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPHS/18_02_08/eurusd%20weekly.gif - weekly

Monthly
The pair is over “Q” trend line, which, having offered support to the pair, gave a possibility for a turned “triangle” shape to be formed at the Weekly graph. Starting from the fact that at the Weekly graph a turned “triangle” shape has formed, and it has to be broken downwards, “E-E+” ascending trend will be broken also downwards and the pair will forward to “N” trend line (1.34/1.33). A correction to levels 1.42/1.43 is possible from this trend line. Further the descending movement will be amplified by relatively fine formed “double top” turned shape (“G-G+” channel). If this shape (“G” trend line) will be broken, EURUSD will go down to 1.1900.
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPHS/18_02_08/eurusd%20monthly.gif - monthly



GBPUSD

H4
“a-a+” ascending correction trend was broken, so now the pair is on its way down to trend lines “N” and “Y” (1.9430).


Daily
The bounce off the higher bound of “C-C+ descending trend confirms the pair’s intentions to break “N” trend line and to continue the descending movement with the target 1.9076.


Weekly
The breaking of the lower bound of “E-E+” ascending trend implies breaking of the red “N” trend line and reaching the lower bound of “G-G+” channel (turned “double top” shape), the level 1.84/1.85.
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPHS/18_02_08/gbpusd%20weekly.gif - weekly

Monthly
A turned “Wolf waves” model was formed (bounce off the 5th wave) with the target 1.7145. The breaking of the black “E-E+” ascending trend confirmed this model and the pair’s intentions to break “N” trend, as well as the lower bound of the turned “double top” shape (1.84/1.85), upon breaking of which the target of the 6th Wolf’s wave, the level 1.7145, will be reached.
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPHS/18_02_08/gbpusd%20monthly.gif - monthly



USDCHF

Н4
The breaking of “R” trend line (1.1090) will open the road of growth to the target 1.1270.
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPHS/18_02_08/usdchf%20h4.gif - h4
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPHS/18_02_08/usdchf%20daily.gif - daily



USDJPY

Н4
The pair has broken the “triangle” shape. Although it wasn’t really straight, nevertheless the breaking of this shape is a signal to the beginning of an ascending trend. “Y” trend line can offer some resistance, but the pair is aimed at the level 109.36.
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPHS/18_02_08/usdjpy%20h4.gif - h4

Daily
The breaking of “C-C+” trend assumes the movement from “E+” trend line to 111.00.
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPHS/18_02_08/usdjpy%20daily.gif - daily

Weekly
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPHS/18_02_08/usdjpy%20weekly.gif - weekly

Monthly
The pair is being traded within a triangle. The level 106.20 is a very strong support, I expect the movement from it to 115.85.
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPHS/18_02_08/usdjpy%20monthly.gif - monthly



GOLD

Н4
The “triangle” shape is formed with “R-R+” bounds. The breaking of “R” trend line together with “Y” opens the road of lowering towards “E” trend line – the lower bound of the ascending weekly trend.
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPHS/18_02_08/gold%20h4.gif - h4

Daily
The turned “Wolf waves” model is formed with the target $860-870. The breaking of “Y” trend line will confirm the model and intentions of the descending movement. Upon breaking of the lower bound of “E-E+” ascending trend (which is supposed to happen) the pair will go down to the level $800.
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPHS/18_02_08/gold%20daily.gif - daily



EURGBP
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPHS/18_02_08/eurgbp%20h4.gif - H4
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPHS/18_02_08/eurgbp%20daily.gif - daily



LS Crued oil

Н4
The bounce off “X” trend line occurred, what assumes the breaking of the lower bound of “a-a+” ascending correction trend and the movement towards the lower bound of “C-C+” channel ($89). The breaking of “C” trend will give the pair a chance to go down to “Z” trend line ($85-56).
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPHS/18_02_08/crued%20oil%20h4.gif - h4

Daily
We could suppose that the “double bottom” shape was formed, but it is impossible during the correction. That’s why I consider the bounce off “X” trend line as a sign of turn. From this trend line I expect lowering to “Z” trend line ($85-86).
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPHS/18_02_08/crued%20oil%20daily.gif - daily
 
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STRATEGIST

Private, 1st Class
Messages
3
EURUSD
H4 forecast
1) Ascending trend, target of movement 1.5310
2) if the pair won't be able to go up than level 1.5150, then level 1.5010 and 1.4950 will become its target. And if the pair won't be able to go down than level 1.4950, then level 1.5310 will become its target
Cancellation of the scenario 2, if the pair will be able to go down 1.4950
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPHS/28_02_08/eurusd%20h4%20forex%20forecast.gif

Daily forecast
1) Ascending trend, target of movement 1.5520
2) if the pair won't be able to go up than level 1.5310, then level 1.4950 will become its target. And if the pair won't be able to go down than level 1.4950, then level 1.5520 will become its target
Cancellation of the scenario 2, if the pair will be able to go down 1.4950




GBPUSD
H4 forecast
1) Ascending trend, target of movement 2.0133
2) if the pair won't be able to go up than level 1.9875, then level 1.9690 - 1.9630 will become its target. And if the pair won't be able to go down than level 1.9610, then level 1.9825 and 2.0133 will become its target
Cancellation of the scenario 2, if the pair will be able to go down 1.9610
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPHS/28_02_08/gbpusd%20h4%20forex%20forecast.gif

Daily forecast
1) Ascending trend, target of movement 2.0133
2) if the pair won't be able to go up than level 1.9875, then level 1.9690 - 1.9630 will become its target. And if the pair won't be able to go down than level 1.9610, then level 1.9825 and 2.0133 will become its target
Cancellation of the scenario 2, if the pair will be able to go down 1.9610




USDCHF
H4 forecast
Descending trend, target of movement 1.0415
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPHS/28_02_08/usdchf%20h4%20forex%20forecast.gif

Daily forecast
1) Descending trend, target of movement 1.0240
2) if the pair won't be able to go down than level 1.0415, then level 1.0630 will become its target. And if the pair won't be able to go higer than level 1.0630, then level 1.0240 will become its target
Cancellation of the scenario 2, if the pair will be able to go higer 1.0630




USDJPY
1) Descending trend, target of movement 105.60 (102.00)
2) ...
3) if the pair won't be able to go down than level 105.60, then level 107.10 will become its target. And if the pair won't be able to go higer than level 107.70, then level 102.00 will become its target


http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPHS/28_02_08/usdjpy%20mn%20forex%20forecast.gif - monthly



GOLD
1) Ascending trend, target of movement unknown
2) if the pair won't be able to go up than level 967, then level 917 will become its target
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPHS/28_02_08/gold%20h4%20forex%20forecast.gif - H4
 
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STRATEGIST

Private, 1st Class
Messages
3
EUR/USD

H4 forecast
1) Ascending trend, target of movement 1.5520
2) Ascending trend with support on 1.5235, target of movement 1.5520

Trade signals:
1) buy market, but not higher then 1.5280, stop loss 1.5175, take profit 1.5485
2) buy limit 1.5248, stop loss 1.5175, take profit 1.5485
3) buy stop 1.5360, stop loss 1.5255, take profit 1.5485
(updated 06.03.08, 00:42 by GMT)




Daily forecast
1) Ascending trend, target of movement 1.5520
Daily graph




GBP/USD

H4 forecast
1) Ascending trend, target of movement 2.0133
2) Ascending trend with support on 1.9835, target of movement 2.0133

Trade signals:
buy limit 1.9852, stop loss 1.9780, take profit 2.0100
(updated 06.03.08, 01:07 by GMT)




Daily forecast
Ascending trend, target of movement 2.0133
Daily graph



USD/CHF

H4 forecast
1) Descending trend, target of movement 1.0140
2) Descending trend with resistance on 1.0505, target of movement 1.0140
Cancellation of the scenario 2 if the pair will go up higher then level 1.0525




Daily forecast
Descending trend, target of movement 1.0140
Daily graph



USD/JPY

H4 forecast
Descending trend with resistance on 104.75, target of movement 102.00




Monthly forecast
Descending trend with resistance on 104.75, target of movement 102.00
Monthly graph
 

STRATEGIST

Private, 1st Class
Messages
3
EUR/USD

H4 forecast
Ascending trend, but there are some signs of trend turn:
1) if the channel "C-C+" will be broken through, then level 1.4955 will become target

2) if the pair won't be able to go down lower then level 1.4910, then level 1.5580 will become its target
cancelation this scenarion if will be able to go down lower then level 1.4910

3) if the pair will be able to go down lower then level 1.4910, then level 1.4650 will become its target
cancelation this scenario, if after passing level 1.4910 the pair will be able to go up higher then level 1.4985



Daily
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPHS/10_03_08/eu%20d1.gif




GBP/USD

H4 forecast
Ascending trend, but there are some signs of trend turn:
1) if the channel "C-C+" will be broken through, then level 1.9630 will become target

2) if the pair won't be able to go down lower then level 1.9600, then level 2.0555 will become its target
cancelation this scenarion if will be able to go down lower then level 1.9600

3) if the pair will be able to go down lower then level 1.9600, then level 1.9400 will become its target
cancelation this scenario, if after passing level 1.9600 the pair will be able to go up higher then level 1.9660



Daily
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPHS/10_03_08/gu%20d1.gif



USD/CHF

H4 forecast
Descending trend, but there are some signs of trend turn:
1) if the channel "C-C+" will be broken through, then level 1.0620 will become target

2) if the pair won't be able to go up higher then level 1.0670, then level 1.0000 will become its target
cancelation this scenarion if will be able to go up higher then level 1.0670

3) if the pair will be able to go up higher then level 1.0670, then level 1.0830 will become its target
cancelation this scenario, if after passing level 1.0670 the pair will be able to go down lower then level 1.0580



Daily
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPHS/10_03_08/uc%20d1.gif



USD/JPY

H4 forecast
Descending trend, but there are some signs of trend turn
if the channel "C-C+" will be broken through, then level 106.60 will become target



Daily
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPHS/10_03_08/uj%20d1.gif



GOLD

Ascending trend, but there are some signs of trend turn
if the channel "C-C+" will be broken through, then level 1.9630 will become target 917.15
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPHS/10_03_08/g%20h4.gif
 
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Woodcrusher

Private
Messages
12
Gold

On a longer sight, there is much space for further gold price rallye. Fear of recession, dollar decline, house price decline etc. will push it in higher regions, no doubt.
 

STRATEGIST

Private, 1st Class
Messages
3
EUR/USD

H4 forecast
Ascending trend, all aims are attained. There are some signs of trend turn and I wait it.

Variants of events' development that take effect if:
If daily ascending trend will be broken, the pair will go to the level 1.5120

Trade signals:
1) sell stop 1.5675, stop loss 1.5785, take profit 1.5150
2) sell stop 1.5530, stop loss 1.5615, take profit 1.5150





GBP/USD

H4 forecast
Decending trend.

Trade signals:
sell limit 2.0026, stop loss 2.0125, take profit 1.9660





USD/CHF

H4 forecast
Descending trend, all aims are attained. There are some signs of trend turn and I wait it.

Variants of events' development that take effect if:
If descending daily trend will be broken upwards, the pair will go to the level 1.0555

Trade signals:
1) buy stop 0.9917, stop loss 0.9848, take profit 1.0525
2) buy stop 1.0080, stop loss 0.9990, take profit 1.0525





USD/JPY

H4 forecast

Variants of events' development that take effect if:
If H4 trend "B-B+" will be broken upwards, then the pair will go to the trend line "C+". If "C+" will be broken upwards, then the pair will go to the level 101.85





GOLD

H4 forecast
Ascending trend, all aims are attained. There are some signs of trend turn and I wait it.

Variants of events' development that take effect if:

Trade signals:
1) sell limit 1001, stop loss 1013, take profit 927.00
2) sell stop 981. 50, stop loss 995.00, take profit 928.00
pips account by trade signals of murch: +120

H4 graph
 

STRATEGIST

Private, 1st Class
Messages
3
EUR/USD

H4 forecast
1) main trend is descending with target 1.5120
2) the pair can go on correction, on the level 1.5615 (resistance). After that the level 1.5120 will become its target





GBP/USD

H4 forecast
Decending trend with target 1.9630/1.9440, resistance 1.9970




USD/CHF

H4 forecast
1) the main trend is ascending with target 1.0555
2) in case of correction the level 0.9990 will become it's target and after that the level 1.0555 will become it's target




USD/JPY

H4 forecast
1) if "triangle" will be broken through upwards, then level 102.82 (as minimum) will become the pair target
2) if "triangle" will be broken through downward, then level 96.12 will become the pair target

 
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