Forex.ee: Daily economic news digest from Forex.ee

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Daily economic digest from Forex.ee
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Monday, June 15th

EUR/USD was down to 1.1212 this morning, opening the session with a small gap. Greece remains ready for negotiations with its international creditors; however the bail-out team blamed European lenders for insisting on pension cuts and raising value-added-tax. The pair’s support level is located at 1.1152 and resistance at 1.1354. Ahead in the day, the markets will be watching the report on euro zone’s trade balance, Italian CPI and the speech of ECB President M.Draghi.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the dollar’s strength against the basket of major currencies, was up 0.17% at 95.40. However, the dollar ended lower last week, as FED did not give any indications on interest rate hike timing. Friday’s data showed that consumer confidence improved in the U.S. over earlier improvement in the labor market, which pushed the expectations for wage gains.

NZD/USD and AUD/USD are moving down quoted 0.6980 and 0.7726 respectively.

USD/JPY was on a slight correction going up over dollar’s strengthening. The pair is trading at 123.47 with support at 122.91 and resistance at 124.23.


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Tuesday, June 16th

AUD/USD was falling this morning over dovish tones in RBA minutes. The pair is trading at 0.7738 and is moving down after Australian officials held the rates unchanged at a record low of 2% and stated that further rate cuts are possible if necessary.

USD/JPY is trading at 123.57 continuing its rise. The comments from Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda indicated that the nominal yen rate is not protected against further weakening.

NZD/USD keeps falling for the fifth consecutive week. Today, the pair tested the 0.6996 level, but was rejected. This indicates the strong resistance at 0.7000. Support level is located at 0.6947.

The U.S. dollar index was up 0.15% at 95.21. Yesterday’s downbeat data from U.S. erased the dollar’s gains last night, but the expectations of the rate hike were still strong.

EUR/USD was going up this morning reaching the level of 1.1317. The support level is located at 1.1236 and resistance at 1.1399.

Later in the day, the investors are watching the British CPI, German ZEW Economic Sentiment and U.S. building permits.


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Wednesday, June 17th


USD/JPY was going up in Asia this morning after mixed data from Japan. Yen weakened despite narrower trade balance deficit, which was 10B less than expected at -216B. The pair is located at 123.57 after today’s highest of 123.60. The pair can find support at 122.45 and resistance at 123.89.

NZD/USD spiked up to 0.6993 after strong current account data, but eventually continued its fall to the current level of 0.6963. The expectations of Fed indicating the rate hike timing are likely to prevail in today’s trade, which will greatly affect the pair’s movement depending on the changes in demand for the U.S. dollar.

AUD/USD fell considerably this morning amid iron ore falling prices. Currently traded at 0.77168, the aussie was down almost $0.005 in the last 10 hours. The support can be found at 0.7707 (Today’s lowest) and resistance at 0.7767.

GBP/USD continues to consolidate the recent breakout through 1.5600. Higher volatility is expected on the release of British data due later in the day. The strong support level is located at 1.5595 and resistance at 1.5709.

EUR/USD is traded in the narrow corridor between 1.1277 and 1.12415. The increase in the number of U.S. building permits sent the single currency lower yesterday. Today, the market is viewing the euro zone’s CPI, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed interest rate decision and the speech of J. Yellen.

The U.S. dollar index was up to 95.24.

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Thursday, June 18th

EUR/USD surged yesterday evening amid dovish Fed comments on rate hike timing. Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen said that U.S. Central Bank will take data-driven approach when deciding on when to raise the rate. It was said that the Fed would like to see improvements in the U.S. economy and labor market before it begins policy normalization. Meanwhile, Athens remains in focus. On Wednesday, the Greece Central Bank warned that the country might face an “uncontrollable crisis” if the agreement with creditors is not reached. EUR/USD closed above 1.13 for the first time in the last six sessions. Currently, the pair is traded at 1.13855.

USD/JPY fell despite data showing lower Japanese wage levels in April. The strengthening of the yen was stimulated by the view that the Fed will be slow to raise rates. The pair is currently at 123.01 with resistance level at 124.57 and support at 122.70.

NZD/USD fell sharply after the release of weaker GDP growth in the first quarter. Economists expected a 0.6% growth rate, but the report came in at 0.2%. Falling to 0.6873, it was the pair’s lowest since July 6, 2010.

USD/CHF was down to 0.9212 after yesterday’s Fed announcement. The Swiss Franc has been a major beneficiary of the Greek crisis, leading to a drop in EUR/CHF and USD/CHF pairs.

The U.S. dollar index was down 0.12% at 94.37.

Later in the day, the markets are viewing the British retail sales report, the U.S. core CPI and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index.

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Friday, June 19th

Swiss franc continued its strengthening against the U.S. dollar reaching its one-month highs on Thursday after SNB left its deposit rate at record low at -0.75%. Swiss National Bank said that negative rate should help to weaken the currency over time. The pair is traded at 0.9235 with support level at 0.9113 and resistance at 0.9255.

GBP/USD touched its seven-month highs against weaker dollar on Thursday. Data showed that U.K. retail sales grew in May while Federal Reserve indicated that it might not raise the interest rates in September, but will rather wait for more robust economic growth. Yesterday’s mixed data from U.S. sent the pond even higher. The cable is currently traded at 1.5862 down $0.0072 from yesterday’s peak.

NZD/USD and AUD/USD were down in Asia despite weaker dollar. Kiwi is likely to remain under pressure without any fresh reports coming out from New Zealand today.

Yen was slightly weaker today traded at 123.12 after Bank of Japan kept the interest rate unchanged as expected at 0.10%. The pair’s resistance level is located at 123.60 and support at 121.54.

EUR/USD rose mildly on Thursday over dollar’s weakening, but erased gains this morning currently traded at 1.1309. Yesterday, the meeting of euro zone finance ministers in Luxembourg ended without a deal between Greece and its creditors. The European Central Bank Executive Board member Benoit Coeure said that he is unsure if banks in Greece will remain open on Monday if a deal is not reached. The likelihood of Greek default is very high.

The U.S. dollar index plunged to a monthly-low of 93.71 before rising to the current reading of 94.57.

Ahead in the day, investors are viewing Canadian Core CPI and series of reports from the United States.


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Monday, June 22nd

EUR/USD was gaining in Asia this morning as investors are waiting to what appears to be the crucial point in Greek negotiations. European leaders are meeting in Brussels to discuss the bailout agreement, which is due to expire on June 30. The pair is trading at 1.1396 with support level at 1.1267 and resistance at 1.1434.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the dollar’s strength against the basket of major currencies, ended the week down 0.4% at 94.27.

NZD/USD was showing correction signs this morning rising to 0.6920 after previous week’s lows of 0.6877. Kiwi tries to fight back the lost ground; however data from New Zealand needs to provide more evidence on the nation’s stable economy growth, since the reports were quite mixed lately.

AUD/USD is headed up currently trading at 0.7787. The aussie was supported by weaker dollar, as sceptic expectations of a rate hike prevailed. The support level is located at 0.7676 and resistance at 0.7794.

Ahead in the day, economists are viewing the U.S. Existing Home Sales.


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Tuesday, June 23rd

EUR/USD was down on Monday despite the clearest indication of Greece going forward in negotiations with its creditors. In Brussels, Greek officials presented a comprehensive proposal, which reportedly included plans to introduce new corporate tax, new wealth tax, raising the nation’s retirement age to 67 and imposing some new increases to VAT. The U.S. Existing Home Sales data also contributed to euro’s decline as report showed better than expected reading of 5.35M as opposed to 5.26M predicted. The German Manufacturing PMI data came out exceeding expectations, which did not notably influence the single currency’s rate. The pair is traded at 1.1248 with support level located near 1.1220 and closest resistance at 1.1375. Ahead in the day, markets are viewing U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales in the United States.

NZD/USD slumped to its fresh 5year lows ignoring better than expected Chinese Manufacturing PMI data. The weak Kiwi remains under pressure after series of downbeat economic data from New Zealand indicating a possibility of further interest rate cuts. The pair is traded at 0.6858 rising from today’s lows of 0.6835.

AUD/USD was down this morning leaving the Chinese Manufacturing PMI data unconsidered. Worse than expected reading of House Price Index in Australia sent the aussie lower to 0.7694. Subsequently the pair erased the losses reaching the 0.7743 level and fell again to 0.7722.

GBP/USD is heading down for the second consecutive falling below 1.5800 level. In absence of any significant news from the U.K. the market will shift the attention towards the U.S. calendar. The pair is traded at 1.5802 with immediate support at 1.5761 and resistance at 1.5668.

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Wednesday, June 24th

The U.S. dollar index was up 1.17% at 95.63 on Tuesday, the highest level since June 12.

EUR/USD fell 1.61% to two-week lows of 1.1135 in spite the data showing that private sector activity in the euro area expanded at the fastest pace in four years this month, meaning that the economy is steadily recovering. The pair is traded at 1.1204 with support level located at 1.1017 and resistance at 1.1315.

USD/JPY was lower in Asia as Japanese Corporate Services Price Index came out with a positive reading. The pair is traded at 123.893.

NZD/USD and AUD/USD were gradually moving up this morning currently traded at 0.6861 and 0.7719, respectively. Bearish trends still prevail for both pairs, especially after yesterday’s comments from Fed governor Jerome Powell on the timing of rate hike, which contributed to the strengthening of the greenback.

GBP/USD is erasing yesterday’s losses climbing up to 1.5786 this morning. The pair is likely to find support at 1.5578 and resistance at 1.5861.

Ahead in the day, investors are viewing the German Ifo Business Climate Index and GDP report from the United States.


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Thursday, June 25th

EUR/USD was back to 1.12 yesterday amid Greek negotiations and mixed data from the U.S. The pair was trading in the corridor between 1.1169 and 1.1235. Currently quoted at 1.1187 the support is likely to be found near 1.1124 and resistance close to 1.1262.

The U.S. dollar index was down 0.21% on Wednesday to 95.44 indicating a correction move of the greenback against the basket of six major currencies after the index rose 1.2% on Tuesday, which was the best session for the dollar since the beginning of this year.

The Canadian dollar is declining for the fifth consecutive day currently quoted at 1.2397 against its U.S. counterpart. The U.S. dollar is steadily erasing yesterday’s losses.

GBP/USD is traded below 1.57. Without any important news coming out from the U.K. the market will be mostly paying attention to the outcome of Greek negotiations.

Ahead in the day, there are series of news from the United States.


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