sive, i've just glanced at the daily e/u chart and have some questions:
1- why don't you mention the Gartley 222 SELL (D completed right at fib retrace 61.8% but i understand that the inner ABCD went past COP without ever touching OP... is that a big issue or does the market ignore such imperfections?)
2- i haven't overlaid the 3x3 MA for clarity sake, but it would appear we might have a possible DRPO (no completed yet, well, the last candle on the chart (doji) still has its close point under the MA as of 15.30 EST)--i haven't used the DiNapoli approach in a while but if i remember correctly, we don't have perfect thrust... so... DRPO == 50-50?
thanks.
ps1: and forgot the chart... here:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/8U41Q5lm/
ps2: damn! forgot to mention that the purple line is not the 3x3 MA, but the Hull MA, which creates some good signal/patterns as well.
Hi Triantus,
well, I haven't mentioned "222" at COP, because due market behavior we've found that price makes a challenge to continue move up further. Read previous daily updates, there you will find signs that we've mentioned and that pointed on this possibility.
Concerning DRPO - I do not see any possibility for it. If you could mark tops of it, probably I could answer better.
Hey Sive,
I am trying to think how I could have done better in the trades this week.
Our plan was correct. Market was between 61.8% and 100% AB-CD target on the daily timeframe and now market is almost done completing to 100%. Currently market is at 1.3665, about 15 or so pips away from our specified TP.
However, I am sure you are aware that price action was choppy and not only that, was very cunning and deceiving.
On the 4th of December, market plunged down past even 61.8% resistance of the hourly swing as a result of the ADP NFP. In fact, market was only 4 pips away from creating a new low on the hourly chart as a result from the ADP NFP. This resulted in a few of my trades to be stopped out at BE, and a few being stopped out with losses.
A few hours later, I saw market QUICKLY re-establish up move and consolidate at the level where I was stopped out previously on the 4th. As I saw this, I entered in various levels and market even went up a little bit for me to be able to set SL to BE. However, as you can see, market was very cunning and had a huge bullish SG on the 4H timeframe. Market went as low as 1.3540 before bouncing back up and taking us to the current level, at 1.3666.
I guess one thing I did learn is that you never should believe in a candlestick until it is fully closed. For example, on 4H, market went as far as 1.3540 before closing the candle at 1.3613. Therefore, I guess always waiting for market to confirm price by the closing of a candle is much better.
I just want to know how I could've done better. Am I too sensitive with setting SL to BE? This eventually resulted in most of my trades being stopped out at BE, which made me miss the opportunity up even though we anticipated it the whole week. How could I have played this week better? Is there anything I should have done differently? In your point of view, was this market action cunning and deceiving to you?
Looking forward to your reply.
Thanks a lot!
Hi Brandon,
Of cause you're right. Market really was very cunning, sloppy and choppy within previous 2 weeks. The only person who could make money here is the one who trade bullish engulfing on weekly chart. Market moves higher but volatility is frustrating.
Sometimes it happens and reason is not neccesary with method of stop placing, moving to b/e and so on. Sometimes such events happen that can't be foreseen. For example, my rule is never to trade during important data or events, such as NFP, Central Bank meetings and so on. But somebody is vice versa - wait for such moments to trade them...
Concerning placing stops and moving them - try to use harmonic swing. As market has passed it in one or other direction - you may try to move stop to b/e.
Second is - try to understand the logic of the market, it's nature. It calls market mechanics. It does not work at 100%, but this is really work. Try to understand why market does one move or another. We do this in every research. As example, recall how we've made a conclusion that market should move higher to 1.3685 when almost everybody has talked about downward reversal. When market is not driven by emotions - it makes very logical action. THis also helps better understand where to place stops and when to move them.
About confirmations... this is my choice as well. In a beginning of my trading way, I had some felling in my inner space that I loose oportunity, I miss the chance. If I will wait for confirmation - possibility will gone etc. But in reality there is no such issue as "loose oportunity". You will get a lot of possibilities tomorrow. My experience also tells that when you wait for some clear pattern and do not try to anticipate it - at the end point it gives you better result, as in term of stop placing, as in term of entry and overall picture.
Trading is a probability issue. It means that you can take a loss if even you haven't done any mistakes.
