FOREX PRO Weekly January 09-13, 2012

[Triantus Shango]

just wanted to add 1 more thing... i had an epiphany, sort of... we owe a huge debt of gratitude to sive. and i don't mean just for teaching us the technical stuff. tonight i realized that, for the first time, my mindset, the way i mentally approach this, has changed for the better. the way he presents the stuff, the mental attitude that comes across the videos and so on... that's invaluable. so a big thank you to the chief is in order here. muchas gracias, don sive!

 

[Triantus Shango]

interestingly H1 is OB. but H4 is not even there yet, so still a lot of upside scope barring any stupid headlines out of europe that would crash the party.

also, on daily, the candle is tickling that goddam upper channel. if we manage to close around here or at least above 2842, above BB1 on daily, and reversion to the mean continues, meaning towards mid-BB... that's the tricky thing... but if we do we would have closed above 38.2% retrace on daily. also mid-BB right now stands in that K- and agreement zone sive mentioned at 2917, which is also right next to the 61.8% retrace level 2921 (that's all on SPOT charts so numbers might be off i guess).

no idea if we'll get there but unless everyone slams on the breaks and reestablishes shorts, i don't see why the market would not reach those levels. but what do i know?

 

[rashidin5178]

interestingly H1 is OB. but H4 is not even there yet, so still a lot of upside scope barring any stupid headlines out of europe that would crash the party.

also, on daily, the candle is tickling that goddam upper channel. if we manage to close around here or at least above 2842, above BB1 on daily, and reversion to the mean continues, meaning towards mid-BB... that's the tricky thing... but if we do we would have closed above 38.2% retrace on daily. also mid-BB right now stands in that K- and agreement zone sive mentioned at 2917, which is also right next to the 61.8% retrace level 2921 (that's all on SPOT charts so numbers might be off i guess).

no idea if we'll get there but unless everyone slams on the breaks and reestablishes shorts, i don't see why the market would not reach those levels. but what do i know?

IMHO, it should touch 1.2850 area..daily r2 first before make a little downmove..let see..
Thanks and Best Regards

 

[Triantus Shango]

yeah that makes sense... might have a pullback there considering it's also around a 61.8 level. but if we don't close above 38.2 (2825) before the US session ends, would that mean that the probability of short resumption will become greater than the probability of long continuation?

 

[rashidin5178]

I'm expecting market is ready to make some retracement from the strong move down at daily..like Sive said...yesterday movedown similarly to W&R..I think it become true..at least currently..
Thanks and Best Regards

 

[gartley82]

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[4x4Ever]

yeah that makes sense... might have a pullback there considering it's also around a 61.8 level. but if we don't close above 38.2 (2825) before the US session ends, would that mean that the probability of short resumption will become greater than the probability of long continuation?

Just pierced and closed (hourly) above that 38.2 fib resistance Seems to be shying away from 1.2850ish area right now but I think (and hope) this will pave the way to deeper 1.29 K area retracement. Then I just need a sell pattern and I'll gladly hold on for targets in the 1.25 range. Love this game, even the waiting can be fun as my job is to out smart the fox LOL
If I was braver I would of jumped on that double bottom buy but I like longer term trades and it makes me nervous when trading against the longer term trend. I hope some of you managed to pull it off though.

Good luck to you all and Happy Pip'n!

~Markus

 

[BeeKay8]

Sive,

Seems like H4 Double Bottom has been accomplished. Should we expect 1,293x to be next target or should I TP from 1.2717? I have moved SL to BE but am reluctant to close the trade because typically with a double bottom, the price should break the high of the double bottom (1.2820).

I know you told me to focus on the pattern when trading patterns and not to incorporate trend with pattern trading. However, we are right now at 1.2830 which is just above the Weekly PP and provides some resistance. Should I TP and then look for another opportunity to enter?

Thanks for your analysis Sive. Regardless, last night's trade gave me some green pips so thanks for your analysis. I really appreciate it.

Take care,
Brandon

EDIT: Daily MACD seems to be crossed to the upside. I remember that you mentioned before that if daily MACD crosses, trend has shifted to bullish. Since MACD is bullish, does this mean that now we stand a greater chance at breaking out of the channel?

 

[Triantus Shango]

sure did , markus. love contrarian trades. agree with you re. the outfoxing the fox. it's like a giant 3D puzzles. everything else seems dull by comparison, except ITSec, math, and physics.

 

[Triantus Shango]

well well well , daily closed at or slightly above 38.2%, etc.... however, and please correct me if i am wrong, but from what i just read and see on the charts, 2845/70 seems to be the zone to watch as it will provide lots of RSST, i.e. lots of confluences there.