FOREX PRO Weekly June 03-07, 2013

[D.R.&Quinch]

All pos closed at be. Shame it didnt go further

 

[alexoptimistic]

a lot of stops at 1.31... i expect a breakout, maybe tomorrow.

 

[jerry4all]

Could we see a bearish stop grabber on weekly time frame?

 

[pragmatic]

CAD

Hello Sive?

Can you give an opinion, strictly on DRPO? It would be much appreciated.

CAD is at 1.272 target expansion on Weekly and possible triangle breakout.
On Daily there is a DRPO but already reached 38.2 on confirmation bar. Is it still possible to trade it on the Short side to deeper retracement?

Thank you!

 

[pragmatic]

EUR

To me, it looks bearish. It looks like a Bearish wedge (with divergence) consisting of two Butterflies side by side on H4. This is exhausting pattern.
We have 61.8 target and the middle of the consolidation as resistance on Daily. So, will see. At least I wont enter long now.

 

[Sive Morten]

Hello Sive?

Can you give an opinion, strictly on DRPO? It would be much appreciated.

CAD is at 1.272 target expansion on Weekly and possible triangle breakout.
On Daily there is a DRPO but already reached 38.2 on confirmation bar. Is it still possible to trade it on the Short side to deeper retracement?

Thank you!

Hi Pragmatic,
well, although we have 2 penetrations of 3x3 - this is not quite DRPO, since pattern suggests almost equal tops. Here we mostly see just one. This pattern could shift, if we can call it, to triple repo, or something of that sort. Anyway this probably will the LAL as maximum.
I usually use 50% of thrust as target of DRPO, but not AB-CD extension of the tops.

 

[D.R.&Quinch]

Well that was a pretty conclusive move up

 

[LeoDvinchi]

I update once again the Dollar index. I attach two pictures
-the one I posted last week
-An update with the adjusted fibo projection. From this picture we see:
a) we reached the target with the highest volume EVER and hence the move in the EURUSD, JPY, Cable. I think this is significant. What the volume means - I have no idea but for sure an important level
b) I see two possibilities for tomorrow. 1) shakeout to the blue line an up we go, in EURUSD terms it means 1.3320 level and down hard. 2) we continue moving to the next fibo level 80.32, which probably mean the EUR is going to stay strong for a while... I will be looking for option 1) just have to decide which currency to play EURUSD or the safer swissy

I got this one spot on but it's only luck. If fact I didn't trade it because I was not sure at all (I kept busy with the DAX), but at least it kept me away from trouble, so twice lucky

 

[LeoDvinchi]

NFP Preparation

I attach May's NFP picture and an updated picture for tomorrow's session. Will it happen again?, possibly but I'm sure I'm not the only one noticing this pattern, therefore one day it might blow the account of those who take it for granted.

Anyway I think it can be a good guide. If the pattern repeats and I happen to be inside the trade, perhaps is a good opportunity to leave 1/2 of the position as a runner

Last month the NFP behaved a little strangely and I only operated the the JPY. Lets hope this time it behaves better.

I only know one way to trade the NFP with some degree of control:
- placing the trade after the news,
- wait for the stop grabbing manoeuvre and the main impulse to end (4-6 minutes)
- Enter at the 50f 61f retracement of the main impulsive on a pattern (pinbar or engulfing)
- target 127f, 161f. If tomorrow we get a trust down I will only take 1/2 at 161f extension. The rest I will leave as a runner

If anyone knows a different technique it would be great if the can share it

It works most of the time, but last month it didn't give an entry on the EURUSD; in fact, price retrace up the entire trust down.

 

[Lolly Tripathy]

Thank you very much for the analysis sive sir..
can you plz tell us the middle area of overbought / oversold ..?
or the target of the stretch pattern..??
and what to for the "sentiment index" which you said on daily vdo..??
You Good luck...God Bless..