FOREX PRO Weekly June 03-07, 2013

[Sive Morten]

Thank you very much for the analysis sive sir..
can you plz tell us the middle area of overbought / oversold ..?
or the target of the stretch pattern..??
and what to for the "sentiment index" which you said on daily vdo..??
You Good luck...God Bless..

Hi Lolly,
the OB/OS zero now stands around 1.3070. Concerning sentiment index - there is a new thread in a root of Sive's part of Forum. Also I've made a mail out, so there are a full explanation of this.
Now you may vote - what results you've got on current week.

 

[LeoDvinchi]

Thanks Sive

I really appreciate your comments and I completely agree with you with the advice to stay away from trading the NFP, specially trading right before the news.

I will try thought but I'm experienced with this one; in fact this might be my only EUR trade this month

 

[otmanov]

please screenshot of your strategy in aud/usd and your deal in this day and tp1 and tp2
thanks.

 

[D.R.&Quinch]

NFP Preparation

I attach May's NFP picture and an updated picture for tomorrow's session. Will it happen again?, possibly but I'm sure I'm not the only one noticing this pattern, therefore one day it might blow the account of those who take it for granted.

Anyway I think it can be a good guide. If the pattern repeats and I happen to be inside the trade, perhaps is a good opportunity to leave 1/2 of the position as a runner

Last month the NFP behaved a little strangely and I only operated the the JPY. Lets hope this time it behaves better.

I only know one way to trade the NFP with some degree of control:
- placing the trade after the news,
- wait for the stop grabbing manoeuvre and the main impulse to end (4-6 minutes)
- Enter at the 50f 61f retracement of the main impulsive on a pattern (pinbar or engulfing)
- target 127f, 161f. If tomorrow we get a trust down I will only take 1/2 at 161f extension. The rest I will leave as a runner

If anyone knows a different technique it would be great if the can share it

It works most of the time, but last month it didn't give an entry on the EURUSD; in fact, price retrace up the entire trust down.
View attachment 9630
View attachment 9631

So to clarify. Enter in direction of initial spike?

 

[Synchronicity]

I've been looking at Thomas DeMarks trend line breakouts and suggest that we have one on the daily timeframe.

View attachment 9584

If my sums are right the targets come out as 1.3373 (T1) and 1.3336 (T3). Not shown on this chart there is a K area about 1.3005 which is a good option to place a stop below. The DeMark trade stays valid if the price doesn't close back below the resistance line but that requires risking more pips.

All the best

Michael

Both targets achieved last week. I didn't trade all the way up but still did well on the trade...

All the best

Michael