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Forex Signal (Fri August 20, 2010 7:00am EDT NY Time) CA Core CPI m/m

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Henry Liu, Aug 19, 2010.

  1. Henry Liu

    Henry Liu Former FPA Special Consultant

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    CPI or Consumer Price Index is the direct measurement of inflation, and it is a high impact release that has long term effects on CAD. It is undoubtedly a high impact release that will be the focus of early NY trading session today. Here is the forecast:

    CA Core CPI m/m Forecast 0.1% Previous -0.1%
    ACTION: USD/CAD BUY -0.2% SELL 0.4%

    The Trade Plan

    We will be focusing on the Core CPI release today and our deviation for this release based on historical track record is 0.3%, therefore I’ll be looking for tradable figures of 0.4% or better to SELL USD/CAD or a -0.2% or worse to BUY USD/CAD.

    I'll be looking for a after-news retracement trade for this release. I'll wait for the release, wait for the initial market move, and wait for a decent retracement before jumping in. For more information on my trading methods:
    Henry's News Trading Method.

    The Market
    USD/CAD has been strengthening on the possible $40 Billion bid of Potash Corp. by BHP Billiton Ltd. and the fact that demands for CAD and canadian housing bond are on the rise as they provide safer alternatives to US Treasuries.

    As a matter of fact, out of the C$170 Billion of Canadian securities sold since 2009, C$135 Billion were bought by foreign investors; combining this steady demand with recent BOC (Bank of Canada) shift in monetary policy, it is no surprise to see CAD remain in a tight range during both risk appetite and risk aversion driven market conditions.

    Additional Thoughts
    Today's Core CPI release is expected at a modest 0.1%, which is the median estimate of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Core CPI has been on a steady trend therefore I'd probably stay out of the market unless we get our tradable deviation.

    USD/CAD is a very slow moving currency with very little retracement. We may need to jump in a little sooner, but market should spike in the direction of the news, stall, and then spike again. Usually the second spike will give us the most pips.

    Pre-news Consideration
    The headline CPI may come out much better than expected due to the HST, or Harmonized Sales Tax, as a resut of the merger of sales taxes in Ontario and British Columbia, which made some goods and services taxable for the first time... It is estimated that the effect HST should add 0.6% to the headline CPI in the next 12 months... We may see some buying of CAD (selling of USD/CAD pair) prior to the release.

    DEFINITION:
    “CPI, Consumer Price Index, is a statistical estimate of the movement of the prices of goods and services bought for consumption purposes by households. Its computation uses price data collected for a sample of goods and services from a sample of sales outlets in a sample of locations for a sample of times and estimates of the shares of the different expenditures in the total covered by the index which are usually based upon expenditure data obtained for sampled periods from a sample of households(wikipedia).” It is also known as the “True Cost of Living”.

    Our focus is on the Core CPI, or CPI ex Energy and Food components, which provides a better picture of inflation without the seasonal factor.

    Historical Chart & Data of CA Core CPI


    Thanks,


    [​IMG]
     
    #1 Henry Liu, Aug 19, 2010
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. kkunlexx

    kkunlexx Private

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    kkunlexx

    Thanks a million Henry for both the signals and analysis. They've been helping me a great deal. In fact, I look forward to them as if i was given an open cheque to fill and withdraw. however, i missed out of Thursday trade as i was about 70pips down before the news so i couldn't join. I just hope i will be able to make something today Friday. once again thanks.:)
     
  3. RCM

    RCM Recruit

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    GBPUSD signal yesterday

    Thanks Henry,

    I entered long 6 mins after the announcement as there was a small retracement, my entry long was at 1.56003 and exited 43 minutes later at 1.56346 for 34.3 pips profit.

    Looking forward to tonight's announcement

    Cheers

    RCM
     
  4. Mumtaz_9979

    Mumtaz_9979 Recruit

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    thank u very much for ur signals and ur analysis is so helpful for me .yesterday i gate 100pips again thank u . mumtaz
     
  5. fmlbfx2010

    fmlbfx2010 Private

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    Hello,
    What is the link to see the prvious report?
    Rgds
     
  6. Ahmed H

    Ahmed H Private

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    thanks for your analysis henry.. hope this indicator makes us some pips..
     
  7. friday rufus

    friday rufus Recruit

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    new

    I wish that it will come out as u forcast the movement of usdcad is always slow but i like ur analysis fridayrufus

    When i started trading i enter london sell with sell and make 200usd under 5mins and newyork session buy 100usd under 5 mins it was d economy ressesion that spoil my system but this system is reliable with little risk and i believe the system will come back but for now ur system is ok 4 me. i only trade eurusd then but now i can attempt other currency.

    looking forward to a better trade
     
  8. friday rufus

    friday rufus Recruit

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    my system

    I have not started using ur system i only using it on demo account and mere looking thr the platform i know that ur system will work hery

    I will take time to analyse my system of trading opening session next week is a wonderfull system but the world economy turn it upsidedown . when i send we can refine it together and bring something out well package for trading london opening session and newyork session thanks herry
     
  9. hilariousidiot

    hilariousidiot Recruit

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    Great Analysis

    Thank you for the signals Henry.. :)
     
  10. swiftytj

    swiftytj Recruit

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    which news service

    hi henry , which news service would you recommend for news release trading? thanks for the superb analysis , trevor
     

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