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Forex Signal (Fri. October 8 2010, 7:00am NY Time EDT) - CA Employment Change

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Henry Liu, Oct 7, 2010.

  1. Henry Liu

    Henry Liu Former FPA Special Consultant

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    We’ll be getting the Canadian Employment Change release number tomorrow, here is the forecast:

    7:00am (NY TIme) CA Employment Change Forecast 10K Previous 35.8K
    (Unemployment Rate 8.1%)
    ACTION: USDCAD BUY -15K SELL 35K

    The Trade Plan

    Canadian Employment Change report will be release at 7:00am sharp today, and it's the only high impact tradable news releases today. What I am looking for is a minimum deviation of around 25K, or the difference between the Forecast number (10K) versus the actual release number; therefore if we get a positive 35K of release, we should see demand for the CAD rise, therefore we should SELL USD/CAD; however, if we get a negative number, such as -15K or worse, we should see some weakness in the CAD, and that will be my cue to BUY USD/CAD pair.

    I’ll also pay close attention to the unemployment rate, which stands at 8.1%, from last month’s release. As long as this number does not conflict with the Employment Changes, we should follow the direction of the news release. If we get a conflict, such as better Employment Changes but higher Unemployment Rate, then we’ll need to look at the context of the market before take the trade.

    I'll be looking to trade this release using my after-news Retracement Method, for more information:
    Henry's News Trading Method.

    The Market
    USDCAD has been on a downward trend since the first of September following his Jackson Hole speech signaling further stimulus or large scale asset purchases by the Feds, but the gains in the loonie have not been as exaggerated compared to other majors due to the close trade relations with the U.S.

    A closer look into yesterday's sharp decline in USDCAD at 1.0060 followed by a sharp retracement back to the 1.0210 level shows buyers are prepared to trade around parity levels, if we do get a strong Employment number, this would be the level to watch out for.

    Additional Thoughts
    USD/CAD is a slow moving currency pair, it will move on a strong deviation, but retracement is usually non-existent or very small... Therefore, if we get a strong release, especially when it is going with the pre-market trend, a sooner than later entry should add more pips to your account. Expect to see a spike down --> stall ---> another spike down...

    Pre-news Considerations
    USD/CAD should strengthen before the release, I'd be looking to SELL USDCAD at resistance areas.

    DEFINITION
    “Measures the change in number of employed people during the previous month. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. Job creation is an important indicator of economic health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP. This report is the first of the month that relates to labor conditions, making it susceptible to big surprises.”

    Historical Chart & Data for CA Employment Change

    Thanks,


    [​IMG]
     
    #1 Henry Liu, Oct 7, 2010
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. habib fuad

    habib fuad Recruit

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    hello, iam newbie
    what is mean by


    buy -15k
    sell 35 k ??
     
  3. Mandrake

    Mandrake Corporal

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    Hi Henry what about NFP ?
     
  4. MatthewT

    MatthewT Recruit

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    Henry! I wrote you a message on Facebook, please read it.
    It would be a great help.

    Thank you!
     
  5. Mccoyjossy

    Mccoyjossy Recruit

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    Joseph

    Please Henry, how do i know when the actual figure comes out. I mean when you say +70k and all that?

    I will be very happy to hear from u.

    thanks.
     
  6. DaveO

    DaveO Private, 1st Class

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    You guys cannot expect Henry to nursemaid you. He only provides the news analysis and no charge is made by FPA.

    It is up to you to get off your asses and do some research and learning. Yes, I mean do some WORK.
     
  7. Muhammad_ali0027

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    buy -15k
    sell 35 k ??
    buy usdcad when result will be -15k and sale usdcad when result will be +35k.it means if result will in the negative you buy usdcad and if result will be possative you have to sale usdcad.
     
    #7 Muhammad_ali0027, Oct 8, 2010
    Last edited: Oct 8, 2010

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