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Forex Signal (Thu, July 15 2010, 6:45pm NY Time EST) - NZ CPI q/q

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Henry Liu, Jul 14, 2010.

  1. Henry Liu

    Henry Liu Former FPA Special Consultant

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    We'll be trading the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figure out of New Zealand today. CPI is Inflation, therefore it is a very high impact release. Here's the forecast:

    6:45pm (NY Time) NZ CPI q/q Forecast 0.5% Previous 0.4%
    ACTION: NZD/USD BUY 0.8% SELL 0.2%


    The Basic Plan
    Our focus will be on the headline CPI number. If we get a better release of 0.8%, we should be looking to BUY NZD/USD; if we get a lower release 0.2%, then we’ll see NZD/USD move down. Usually if our BUY or SELL figures are hit, we could expect the market to move about 40~50 pips within the next 30~90 minutes.

    The Market
    General market sentiment is leaning towards risk appetite, with earning report season kicking off with Alcoa yesterday and Intel today, it's no wonder why during the U.S. trading session currency market recovered despite of today's worse than expected Retail Sales figure.

    With Kiwi breaking the resistance level set in June, now hovering around the 0.7200 level against USD, we could see further strength in the NZD if we get a stronger CPI release, adding to expectation for RBNZ Bollard's already bullish stance on its rate policy.

    Additional Thoughts
    RBNZ is expected to render its rate decision on July 28, and if this CPI release shows added inflationary pressure, we could see probability of a rate hike decision going up from the current 68% (as predicted by Credit Suisse). This would surely add more fuel for NZD to move upwards against USD and AUD.

    One last note: NZD is a very slow moving currency and at the time of this release we are likely to experience low liquidity. We may have to give this trade a little more time for it to develop, if we get our buy or sell figures.

    DEFINITION:
    “The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the rate of inflation (i.e., the rate of price changes) experienced by consumers when purchasing goods and services. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability; when inflation rises above an annualized rate of approximately 2%, they will respond by raising interest rates to bring prices down. Higher interest rates attract foreign investment, thus increasing demand for the nation’s currency. CPI is one of the most closely watched indicators and will usually have a high impact upon release.”

    For information on my trading method, please read:
    Henry's News Trading Method

    For historical data and charts of previous NZD CPI q/q:
    NZD Charts and Historical Data

    Thanks!


    [​IMG]
     
    #1 Henry Liu, Jul 14, 2010
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. mojoo

    mojoo Recruit

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    tnx

    tnx for signal. it really makes me have practice
     
  3. roopi

    roopi Recruit

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    trading the news

    hi i am new to forex. i really like your posts. can you please tell me where to get the news.By th time it is released on television its too late already
     
  4. seethestars

    seethestars Private

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    Ditto, hello Henry, along with roopi' I struggle to find the news break. Do you have a link? Though I am new to trading, I must say that I am thoroughly enjoying your posts, thankyou.
    David
     
  5. mr forex

    mr forex Recruit

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    Please post news numbers when they come out.

    Many of us cannot afford high speed news services and are at a real disadvantage when trading the news. Suggestion: It would be outstanding and very helpful if you could post the signal news numbers as soon as they come out.

    For instance tomorrow as soon as NZ CPI wish you could post the NZ CPI on forexpeacearmy.com. It would be another reason for us to log into your website and the forum could discuss news and forex price response. Thanks for considering this!
     
  6. wizardpro

    wizardpro Recruit

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    How to go about it I am using MT4

    Hi , Do you have in built RSS or send emaisl vis SMS notices as I am using MT4
     
  7. jklauss

    jklauss Private

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    hai..i am totally agreed with mr.forex..hope u can post the nz cpi on forexpeacearmy.com

    thank u very much
    Klauss
     
  8. CTGUY

    CTGUY Recruit

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    Thank you

    Thank you Henry for your reports and welcome to the best forex related site available to forex traders
     
  9. chilie

    chilie Recruit

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    Hi people. I keep wondering: what is the best time frame to trade the news with? Please help, i'm confused.
     
  10. wire007

    wire007 Recruit

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    cos u don't have to worry alot

    simply log 2 Forex Factory
     

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