ForexSwingTrading MWF EUR/USD Predictions

[fst2045]

In today's EUR/USD Forecast I am once again recommending to stand aside. I know it's frustrating to see the pair moving and doing nothing, but I am only looking for the best high probability opportunities where the Monthly Cycle and the Weekly Cycle are in Synch. This also results in the biggest potential pip moves. With that said both the Monthly and Weekly up cycles do appear to be complete, but the pair hasn't become over bought on the Daily Chart, nor has the Smart Money given an extreme sell signal. Until one of these two things happens I am going to stand aside.

I am looking for the pair to continue to drop, as the weekly chart still has a fair bit of downward momentum on it. I am hoping that we will get the sell signals that I am looking for on Monday or Tuesday of next week.

 

[fst2045]

In today's EUR/USD forecast I am going to recommend continuing to stand aside on this pair and look for opportunities in other pairs. It does like like the Smart Money is starting to accumulate, but whether they will actually reverse the market to the upside and change the trend, or just retrace for a continuation down is still unclear. It is too soon to tell, but I do think that there is a potential for a trend reversal, but for the next week or so I think the pair will probably just bounce up and down in a range.

Once I've identified a clear direction I will let you know, until then look for other pairs to trade. For example the GBP/USD has a clear reversal signal to the upside, but I would like to see a substantial pull back to the 1.6010 level before I think about taking a trade.

 

[fst2045]

In today's EUR/USD forecast I am going to look for it the pair to drop further. Although we did get a rise on Monday and Tuesday it failed to continue to break to the upside and the trend is still down. However Draghi speaks today, which in itself would probably not be an issue, but we also have several key economic indicators coming in from the US. With that said I would probably be looking to enter the pair short on a substantial retrace, somewhere around the 1.2740 level only if you are getting an overbought signal on your technical indicators.

I would look for the drop to occur sometime on Thursday between 7:00-9:00 am or between 13:00-17:00 (GMT+7)

On Monday I mentioned that I was looking for a reversal to the upside on the GBP/USD, however after the CPI report came out on Tuesday the pair took a big drop, and none of my technical indies lined up so I passed on it.

 

[fst2045]

In today's EUR/USD Forecast I am going to recommend looking for long trades. After the economic data came out on Wednesday we had a shift in the trend to the upside. With that said I would recommend looking for a fairly substantial pull back and waiting until the 4hr. chart becomes oversold before entering a trade. I will be looking at the 1.2720-30 level for support. Again make sure the technicals and VSA line up before entering a trade. My time based indicators are saying that there isn't going to be a setup until next Monday so I will probably not enter a trade.

If you choose to enter be careful of the fact that it is Friday and that you will either need to close your trade off quickly or hold it over the weekend, which is something that I rarely do.

Trade Review
Last Wednesday I recommended looking for a short on Thursday, but when I saw the trend shift that took place after the US economic data came out I canceled the trade and began looking for buying opportunities.

 

[fst2045]

In today's Forecast I am looking for the EUR/USD to continue up. The trend has switched to the upside and I am looking for it to continue to pull back to a support level at around 1.2720. This would put it near a daily pivot point as well as close to the 200 Day Moving Average. The price at the moment is 1.2764, so it needs to pull back a fairly substantial amount, and given that I don't see any announcements today this may not happen.

My time based indicator says that the momentum is up for most of the day and that we should look for a move to occur around 16:00-19:00 (GMT+8)

 

[fst2045]

Today I am looking for the pair to continue upwards. We had a substantial pullback to a support level and am looking to enter at around 1.2710. CPI numbers are coming out later on, but other than that the day looks rather uneventful. We're seeing a fairly precipitous drop on the daily ATR, which means that volatility is decreasing, so if you do enter this trade, you may need to hold onto it for awhile before you see it move, so don't be too hasty to enter.

My time based indicators are giving a reading between 13:00 to 16:00.

 

[fst2045]

I am still looking for the EUR/USD pair to move up. The weekly cycle down looks to be complete, and now it appears that we are in accumulation period. However having said that my technical indicators don't look to be set up the way I would like them to be. My 4 hr. Cycle indicator is moving into an overbought area, when I would like for it to be oversold. The same with the 1 hr. cycle indicator. With that said if you choose to enter this pair on a Friday I would do so with extreme caution. I have a buy order set at 1.2600 and I will likely cancel it by 15:00 (GMT+8) if it doesn't trigger by then.

Trade Review- It has been a bit of a frustrating week. I missed the bottom by 10 pips on Monday when I called the entry at 1.2720 and the low was 1.2730. The market then rallied 100 pips. My entry on Wednesday was much too early and I got stopped out for a 25 pip loss.

 

[fst2045]

It still looks like the direction for the EUR/USD is up. However we are still facing the problems that we had last week in that the technicals are still not right on the 4 hr chart and the pair hasn't pulled back enough in order to give us a safe entry. It does look like the weekly cycle down completed on the 23rd and the cycle up started on the 24th, which also matches the trend. Also the weekly Pip estimate was met, which does lead me to believe the pair will continue up.

However I need for at least the 1 hr. chart to become oversold and would like to see a pullback to around the 1.2635-40 level. I'm not sure that we'll get back all the way down here or not, but that's the safe buy area for me. I don't have any specific buy times today.

 

[fst2045]

The EUR/USD has been moving up as I predicted it would, but not in a very orderly fashion. In fact it has been quite choppy and difficult to get on. Nevertheless the trend and the cycle are both still up so I am going to look to enter the pair on a pullback. I would look to enter the pair between the 1.2680-1.2690 level, but only if your technical look good. At the moment the Schaff Trend Cycle indicator that I use to read the cycles is over sold on the hourly chart which is a good sign, but not enough. I would also like to see my Smart Money Indicator move to the high side, which would indicate that smart money is starting to get onto the move.

I do have a buy signal at between 18:00-20:00 (GMT+8) but am only going to pay attention to it if I get a good pullback.

 

[fst2045]

ppy Halloween!! It appears that I called the cycle on the EUR/USD incorrectly. We were actually in the middle of a down cycle in an uptrend, and it appears that the trend may be turning as well. In any case I don't see a trade materializing today. I mentioned on Wednesday that I thought the pair would pull back to the 1.2670 level and reverse, but that support level got crushed. I never entered the trade because the technicals weren't looking right.

I did manage to pull 120 pips out of a long trade on the EUR/JPY, but unfortunately it's gone on to run for another 130. If the EUR/USD manages to close below the 1.2595 level today then the trend change will be complete and I will be looking for shorting opportunities on the pair next week. Otherwise I will keep my long bias.