ForexSwingTrading MWF EUR/USD Predictions

[fst2045]

So we did get the close below the 1.2595 and the trend did change, so I am looking for trades to the down side on the EUR/USD. We've gotten about a 75 pip pullback from the bottom, but I think that the down cycle has completed. So I am going to wait for the 4 hr. Chart to become overbought before I entertain the idea of taking the short on this pair.

It is looking like it has a ways to go and according to my time-based indicator the drop won't occur until Tuesday at around 16:00 - 18:00, but that indicator has been known to be wrong. Nevertheless I'm going to be patient and wait for this pair to setup. I am looking at the 1.2550 level for the short, but again only if the technical are setup.

 

[fst2045]

I'm sorry that I've neglected this forecast for the past 10 days. I was occupied with another business that I was working on getting started. Anyway at the moment the EUR/USD is moving counter trend to the upside. It could continue and breakout but I think what is more likely to happen is that it will become overbought on the daily chart and start to fall again. With that said I think it's going to be at least a day maybe more before we see a viable trade on this pair. So my recommendation is to stand aside and look for opportunities on other pairs. However I don't see anything at the moment, but I am keeping my eye for the Pound US Dollar to get overbought for another drop. But it could be another day for that to happen.

If you go to the Free Resources http://www.ForexSwingTrading.com area I've added several new indicators that I use on a daily basis to forecast the markets. These include the daily pivots, the trend indicator, the Schaff Trend Cycle and the Better Volume Indicators. I use these in conjunction with several other tools, some of which are proprietary and will teach in a course later on next year. But for now you can add these to your repertoire free of charge. I hope that you find them useful. Make sure to download the PDFs that accompany the Schaff Trend Cycle and the Better Volume so that you will understand how to use them.

 

[fst2045]

I am looking for the EUR/USD pair to take a drop. The trend is still down and it looks like the cycle up is about complete. I would like to see one more exhaustion blow off to the upside before I consider entering the pair however. I would like to see it move back to the 1.5250 to 1.5280 level before I consider entering and I will do so only if the 4 hr. is Over bought and my other technical indicators look good. I am looking for this drop to occur someplace between 17:00 and 21:00 (GMT+7).

We are getting into a rather volatile period of the year in which moves can be pretty big so hopefully when we see the drop occur it will make a substantial move.

 

[fst2045]

Well I definitely called the direction correctly even if my timing was a bit off. I unfortunately only managed to take about 8 pips from the move as the technicals didn't look right on Wednesday so I closed out early before it spiked up toward the 1.26 level. I never got the re-entry price that I wanted so I missed the big drop down.

At the moment the market is a bit hard to read. It looks like we are mid cycle to the downside, but with that big drop the cycle might have also completed (even though it looks like we are short on the pip movement). Either way I do think we have more to go to the downside, the question is how much upside will it move before it starts to drop again. The first resistance level I am looking at is the 1.2475-80 level. If it gets there and the technicals look good with the 60 minute smart money indicator and the Schaff Trend Cycle (STC) overbought I'll consider a trade. I'm not seeing anything as far as a specific time is concerned.

 

[fst2045]

I am still looking at the EUR/USD for the short side. The 4 hr chart looks good technically speaking, but I am waiting for a signal on the 30 minute to confirm my forecast, so I am not jumping in quite yet. The price area I am looking for it to reverse at is the 1.25 to 1.2520 level. However as I mentioned I want to get a definite signal from my indicators on the 30 minute chart before I enter.

The time I am looking for it to take a drop is around the 20:00-22:00 (GMT+7). Hope this helps and Happy Thanksgiving everyone!!

 

[fst2045]

In Today's EUR/USD forecast I am looking for the pair to continue to drop. I did manage to get an entry at 1.2520 yesterday and held it until a few minutes ago for about a 60 pip gain. I think it will drop more but it's Friday and I don't plan on holding the trade over the weekend so I thought I'd cut and run. Nevertheless it's still mid cycle down so I do expect to see more movement to the down side.

On Wednesday I "The price area I am looking for it to reverse at is the 1.25 to 1.2520 level. However as I mentioned I want to get a definite signal from my indicators on the 30 minute chart before I enter."

The high was at around 1.2522 so it was a fairly accurate call even if my timing wasn't perfect. The pair has just dropped another 20 pips from my exit point so I probably exited too early.

 

[fst2045]

We are mid cycle down and the trend is down so I am looking for this pair to continue to drop. I want to see a retracement to the 1.2490 level first and will only take the trade if my technicals on the 60 minute chart are lined up. I managed to squeeze about 60 pips out of a trade that I'd entered on Thursday evening. The pair did continue to drop further, but then it reversed so I was happy with the 60. The markets have been choppy quite a bit lately making trading conditions very difficult on this pair so make sure everything is lined up before pulling the trigger.

 

[fst2045]

I'm sorry that I am posting this rather late, but there wasn't an opportunity to reenter the pair anyway. We appear to be mid cycle down still, but I think the pair may retrace or go sideways for awhile before it drops again.

Trade Review On Monday I said-

"We are mid cycle down and the trend is down so I am looking for this pair to continue to drop. I want to see a retracement to the 1.2490 level first and will only take the trade if my technicals on the 60 minute chart are lined up." As you can see by the chart below. I was spot on. The high was at 1.2506, so I was within 16 pips of the top. If you are int his trade congratulations. It's fallen about 185 pips so far. If you'd used a 25 pip stop loss that would give you a risk to reward ratio of more than 1 to 7. With that said I would seriously think about closing the trade or at the very least trailing the stop closely. I do think the pair has some more to fall, but the retrace back up could be substantial before it continues to fall.

 

[fst2045]

It doesn't look like there are any trading opportunities on the EUR/USD for today, or any of the other pairs that I trade for that matter. If you made the drop on the EUR/USD that I called on Monday then congratulations. I of course missed my own call, as I was already in a short trade on the GBP/USD by the time the EUR/USD set up. I did manage to squeeze out 66 pips on two trades on the GBP/USD but would have loved to get the big 185 drop that I called on the EUR/USD. Hopefully next time. have a nice weekend.

 

[fst2045]

In today's forecast I am recommending to stand aside. As I mentioned in the last forecast the counter trend strength looked strong and we did indeed see a big move to the upside this week. Despite the fact that it looks like the move is starting to subside the Schaff Trend Cycle indicator on the daily chart has still not hit the over bought level. Because of this I still see the 4 hr. and Daily charts as being at odds with one another which means too much uncertainty in the direction of the market. So again I'm recommending to stand aside and wait for things to sort themselves out next week. Have a good weekend.