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FX Political Trading & The Canadian Dollar

Discussion in 'Market Predictions and Reports' started by globalcurrencymarkets.com, Oct 4, 2009.

  1. globalcurrencymarkets.com

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    FX Political Trading & The Canadian Dollar

    Global Currency Markets Picks
    Roberto Jbili
    ForexInvestor.net (Exotics) & GlobalCurrencyMarkets.com (Main Crosses). Charts by Reuters DukasCopy.

    Market Overview:

    Political Insight

    All the fundamental reports indicate that oil is going up and that there was no need for last
    downs to 63 levels.

    The economic activity which was priced into the Dow Jones rise to 10.000 levels was not priced
    recently in oil price.

    We all know that Caterpilar positive reports in last quarter came from fundemantal industrial
    activity which was confirmed by many Economic data accross the Globe.

    Each time when Stock markets go up and rise and Oil price go down, Russia became nervos
    and make terror attacks here and there and polticial problems to sustain oil price.

    All of us know that the problems in Iraq was an example and another one was the 11 Septmber
    world trader center attacks when Nasdaq was at record high and oil was very cheap.

    After the Attack USA was afraid Stocks tumble to the low and Oil rised to record high.

    Today we are in similar situation Oil is cheap in comparison with Dow jones and Industrial activity
    Russia note the point and move files accross the globe like Iran Nuke news last week.

    Today USA has little influence in NYMEX and NYSE to move oil higher and we should expect
    false reports to sustain Oil prices, Russia does not understand that there is an Bull and Bear
    Period of each Economic Cycle, and the poor innovation in Russia made the Russian Economy
    and the finance of Russia projects to be based on Oil income, this have to make partnership and
    interests between many parts and Russia from the terror point of View.

    This actual situation in the globe from point of political view motivated by economy indicate that oil
    price will rise sharply to void any terror attacks from Russia, like 11 September attacks we listen to
    Iran News and the political preassure came on US admin to make a strike over Iran Nuke site by Year
    end from the Lobby, Iran confirm the Nuke power she has, such us situation build the Bulls for the oil
    to 88 USD then possible to 100 USD.

    This was also confirmed by Gold rise to 1000 level from London and UK is the most to feel worry since
    Russia want UK to feel the pain of playing with Oil price on Markets screen.

    Russia and USA relation is played by Mike Blomberg which prepare himeslef for the election and is in
    need for any terror attacks to sustain him as an expiernced person to lead NewYork.

    Economic Insight

    The Global financial markets remain in positive situation as industrial demand confirm that confience
    by consumer is in place to produce demand for goods ande confirm that we are in bear market rally and
    many Economic reports will confirm this positive period fby Central banks governors.

    Bear market rally is here and we confirm that there will be an market correction inside the bear market
    rally pattern the markets will fall to build above 10.000 levels. the NZD exchange rate will confirm the
    Dow jones movments going forward.

    last week Nasdaq downside of 3% confirm that Oil will be going up.

    We expect that central banks comments will build an attempt for the 10.000 levels among with NZD.
    movments to 0.75 levels.

    We expect new attempt of Dow to touch the touch the 10.000 levels among with NZD rise to around 0.75
    both from 9500 and 0.7150, this will be the last before and drop for the dow and NZD, Dow will drop to 8800
    and NZD to 0.63.

    Oil will go up based on Fundamental comments by Centeral banks governors, Once oil will pass the Tragedy
    level of 0.75 Dow will go down to below 9.000 Oil services stocks will fly.

    FX Picks


    JPY will rise from 0.88 to 0.93
    NZD will rise to 0.75 then fall to 0.63
    CAD will fall to 1 vs 1 USD.
    GBP will rise to above 1.73
    EUR will rise vs USD to above 1.52.

    We like to play the Canadian Dollar VS NZD as commodity currency VS carry trade One.

    OIL & Stock Markets

    The reason of Dow failure to build above 10.000 will be the OIL.

    Oil was not going down, and this is the 2 time for Oil downfall from 70 levels to 63, When Oil does not
    go down and rise from the dows in 2 or 3 times and is sustained by political news from Russia and
    USA intervention by UK to void terror attacks in London, mean that we are in Bulls of Oil confirmed by
    10% drop of AMR stock price and Britisth airways unability to pass the 222 levels.

    an similar situation can be noted in stock markets in which dow will not be able to pass and build above the 10.000
    levels.

    We expect the Dow to go to 8800 and oil to 88 USD, then dow to above 10.000 and oil to 75.
    News of terror attacks may push oil to 100 USD from 75 and if not bear market rally in first edition will be closed.

    Picks

    Short Airlines stocks and buy oil servcies companies.

    Same traders like to trade and enter the markets at bulls end, or in bear market rally last ups to close the patterns
    or close the bear market rally, this trades will be noted in the upside of stocks like BHP and metals minning stocks.

    Roberto Jbili Globalcurrencymarkets.com
    Forex Signals 

    dont forget to check Roberto Jbili Market timing indicator at forexinvestor.net
     

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