Best Commodity Technical Analysis By Capital Street FX

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Weekly Commodity Analysis – Oil, gas, gold turmoil, silver rises.​

Introduction​

Oil prices face a weekly decline, influenced by hopes for a Gaza ceasefire and a stronger dollar, eroding the supply risks premium. Natural gas experiences a decline due to a storage draw falling short of demand, impacted by mild weather predictions. Gold slumps below $2,040 as upbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls lift Treasury yields, affecting XAU/USD. Meanwhile, silver rose over 1% to $23.17, supported by central bank decisions and declining global bond yields.

Markets In Focus Today – BRENT CRUDE OIL​

Oil Prices In Weekly Slump As Gaza Ceasefire Hopes, Stronger Dollar Bite.​

Oil prices fell Friday, to end the week deep in the red as growing optimism over an extended ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war cooled the supply risks premium baked into prices. Faltering growth in China and the possibility of some easing of tensions in the Middle East also reduced prices. High-interest rates, which tend to dampen economic growth and oil demand, in major economies like the United States and the eurozone appear to be here to stay in the near term. A stronger dollar makes oil, priced in the U.S. dollars, more expensive and less attractive to foreign buyers.

Technical Overview With Chart :​

Moving Averages :​

Exponential :​

• MA 10 : 80.00 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 79.67 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 79.89 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :​

• MA 10 : 80.76 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 79.32 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 78.60 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 42.65 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic Oscillator : 31.58 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance And Support Levels :​

• R1 : 83.35 R2 : 85.56
• S1 : 76.22 S2 : 74.01

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell​

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 78.31 | Take Profit: 75.73 | Stop Loss: 80.06

NATURAL GAS​

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Daily Commodity Analysis – Oil surges, gas constraints, gold slides, copper boosted.​

Introduction​

Oil prices rose on Monday as the US plans additional strikes in the Middle East, while Ukrainian drones hit Russia’s largest refinery. The rebound follows last week’s 7% drop, driven by stronger US jobs data and progress in Israel-Hamas ceasefire talks. Concerns about the Middle East conflict persist, impacting oil markets. In the natural gas sector, withdrawals from storage fell short of demand, with expectations of a reversal due to mild weather. Gold prices slide as the dollar surges, fueled by reduced rate-cut expectations. Copper sees a slight rise amid supply concerns in Chile, the world’s top copper producer.

Markets In Focus Today – BRENT CRUDE OIL​

Oil Inches Up As US Plans More Strikes In Mideast, Ukraine Hits Russian Refinery.​

Oil prices nudged higher on Monday, recovering from sharp falls last week, after Washington pledged to launch further strikes on Iran-backed groups in the Middle East and as Ukrainian drones struck southern Russia’s largest refinery. Both benchmarks ended last week down about 7%. They fell 2% on Friday after stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data suggested interest rate cuts could be further out than expected and on progress in ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas. Investors remained wary of any escalation in the Middle East conflict after the U.S. signaled further strikes on Iran-backed groups in the Middle East in response to a deadly attack on U.S. troops in Jordan.

Technical Overview With Chart :​

Moving Averages :​

Exponential :​

• MA 10 : 79.49 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 79.43 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 79.79 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :​

• MA 10 : 80.49 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 79.37 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 78.52 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 42.02 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic Oscillator : 17.15 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance And Support Levels :​

• R1 : 83.36 R2 : 85.57
• S1 : 76.22 S2 : 74.02

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell​

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 76.99 | Take Profit: 74.82 | Stop Loss: 78.59

NATURAL GAS​

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Daily Commodity Analysis – Crude up, Silver down, Gold eyes $2,000.​

Introduction​

WTI crude oil prices hover around $72.90 amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East. The US Dollar’s slight decline supports the uptick, but concerns about global supply disruptions due to Middle East tensions and Russia’s actions in Ukraine may limit the downside. Gold steadies near $2,000 as the dollar rally pauses, with the near-term outlook influenced by worries about prolonged US interest rates. Corn futures show mixed midday movement, rebounding from earlier weakness. Meanwhile, silver (XAG/USD) hit a two-week low at $22.25, dropping over 1.40%, impacted by rising US Treasury yields and Powell’s hawkish stance on interest rates.

Markets In Focus Today – CRUDE OIL​

WTI Recovers Some Lost Ground Near $73.00 Amid Ongoing Middle East Tension.​

WTI prices attract some buyers near $72.90 amid the ongoing Middle East tension. The upbeat US economic data might convince the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep its benchmark rate higher for longer. The US launched retaliatory airstrikes on Friday against Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and allied militias in Iraq and Syria. Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $72.90 on Tuesday. WTI prices edge higher on the modest decline of US dollars (USD). The downside of WTI prices might be capped by concerns that tensions in the Middle East and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine could curb global supplies.

Technical Overview With Chart :​

Moving Averages :​

Exponential :​

• MA 10 : 74.2361 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 74.2010 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 74.7017 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :​

• MA 10 : 75.3019 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 74.1892 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 73.3012 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 45.8300 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic Oscillator : 22.3991 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance And Support Levels :​

• R1 : 78.6054 R2 : 80.9659
• S1 : 70.9639 S2 : 68.6034

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell​

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 73.59 | Take Profit: 71.40 | Stop Loss: 75.09

GOLD​

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Daily Commodity Analysis – gold, oil, investment trends.​

Introduction​

Gold prices remain range-bound amid persistent fears of a rate cut. Despite a slight relief as the dollar retreats from three-month highs, uncertainties loom due to diminished expectations of early U.S. interest rate adjustments. Bullion faces pressure from bets on prolonged higher interest rates, influenced by robust U.S. economic data and hawkish Federal Reserve comments. In the commodities market, copper edges lower ahead of crucial cues from China, impacted by concerns over slowing demand. Oil prices rise for the third consecutive day on lower-than-expected U.S. crude stockpiles, contributing to a balanced 2024 outlook. Natural gas futures slide as warmer weather outweighs potential mid-month cold.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD​

Gold Prices Range Bound As Rate Cut Fears Persist.​

Gold prices moved little on Wednesday but saw some relief as the dollar eased from three-month highs, although waning bets on early U.S. interest rate cuts kept the outlook for the yellow metal uncertain. Bullion prices were battered by bets on higher-for-longer interest rates, especially following a slew of strong U.S. economic readings and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields had surged on these signals. While the dollar fell slightly from three-month highs on Wednesday, the greenback was still sitting on strong gains so far in 2024.

Technical Overview With Chart :​

Moving Averages :​

Exponential :​

• MA 10 : 2033.6296 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 2033.0816 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 2024.4301 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :​

• MA 10 : 2033.5021 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 2030.8546 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50 : 2034.6432 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 50.1219 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator : 42.6026 | Neutral Zone | Positive

Resistance And Support Levels :​

• R1 : 2069.3814 R2 : 2087.5486
• S1 : 2010.5686 S2 : 1992.4014

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy​

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 2036.80 | Take Profit: 2057.10 | Stop Loss: 2024.01

COPPER​

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Daily Commodity Analysis – WTI up, corn down, Fed awaits.​

Introduction​

WTI oil price hovers around $74.20 per barrel, maintaining a positive bias after Israel rejects a ceasefire offer from Hamas. Crude oil prices are expected to continue their winning streak, supported by geopolitical developments. Meanwhile, gold struggles to gain traction amid uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s rate cut path, keeping traders cautious. Silver faces renewed selling pressure, hitting a two-week low and remaining vulnerable to further declines.

Markets In Focus Today – CRUDE OIL​

WTI Hovers Around $74.20 With A Positive Bias After Israel Rejected Hamas’s Ceasefire Offer.​

WTI price could gain ground as Israel has dismissed Hamas’ offer for a ceasefire.EIA Crude Oil stockpiles came in at 5.521 million barrels against the expected 1.895 million barrels. The largest US oilfield, the Permian shale basin, is projected to experience its slowest annual growth since 2021. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price hovers around $74.20 per barrel during the Asian session on Thursday. Crude oil prices are expected to continue their winning streak for the fourth consecutive session. WTI price receives upward support as an obstacle emerges on a ceasefire in the Israel-Gaza conflict.

Technical Overview With Chart :​

Moving Averages :​

Exponential :​

• MA 10 : 74.2378 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 74.2128 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 74.6695 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :​

• MA 10 : 74.9197 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 74.4121 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 73.2419 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 49.7858 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator : 31.3964 | Sell Zone | Positive

Resistance And Support Levels :​

• R1 : 78.6054 R2 : 80.9659
• S1 : 70.9639 S2 : 68.6034

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell​

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 74.53 | Take Profit: 72.35 | Stop Loss: 76.10

CORN​

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Daily Commodity Analysis – Oil rises on geopolitical tensions, gas hits low.​

Introduction​

Oil remains stable with prospects of weekly gains after Israel rejects a ceasefire offer from Hamas, sustaining tensions in the Middle East. Both Brent and WTI experienced a 3% surge as Israeli forces continued operations. Due to bearish storage reports and unfavorable weather forecasts, natural gas futures hit a more than three-year low. Gold struggles amid uncertainty over aggressive Fed rate cuts, while silver shows recovery but faces technical challenges for sustained gains.

Markets In Focus Today – BRENT CRUDE OIL​

Oil Heads For Weekly Gains After Israel Rejects Ceasefire Offer.​

Oil prices were little changed on Friday, staying on track for weekly gains, with tensions persisting in the Middle East after Israel rejected a ceasefire offer from Hamas. Both benchmarks rose about 3% in the previous session as Israeli forces bombed the southern border city of Rafah on Thursday after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected a proposal to end the war in the Palestinian enclave The tensions have kept oil prices elevated, with Brent and WTI both set to gain more than 5% for the week.

Technical Overview With Chart :​

Moving Averages :​

Exponential :​

• MA 10 : 80.1468 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20 : 79.8148 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50 : 79.8974 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :​

• MA 10 : 80.1115 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20 : 79.9283 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50 : 78.4612 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 56.5250 | Buy Zone | Neutral

Stochastic Oscillator : 56.4783 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance And Support Levels :​

• R1 : 83.3603 R2 : 85.5650
• S1 : 76.2230 S2 : 74.0183

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy​

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 80.89 | Take Profit: 83.41 | Stop Loss: 79.57

NATURAL GAS​

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Weekly Commodity Analysis – Gold falters, silver rises, oil soars.​

Introduction​

XAU/USD faces a 0.40% dip to $2,025, signaling a bearish sentiment. Despite soft CPI revisions, gold struggles for traction. Daily chart indicators show a bearish bias, while the four-hour chart suggests a consolidation of losses. Attention turns to next week’s US CPI figures for market direction. Silver (XAG/USD) sees a modest 0.15% gain, trading at $22.60, influenced by a weaker USD. Silver’s potential move toward $23.00 is hinted at, with indications of bottoming out between $22.15-$22.50. Meanwhile, oil prices rise 6% weekly due to Middle East concerns, while natural gas faces a bearish outlook amid ample supply and low demand.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD​

XAU/USD Declines As Bears Gather Traction Ahead Of US CPI.​

The XAU/USD retreated to $2,025 on Friday, registering losses of 0.40% on the day. Despite soft CPI revisions, the metal failed to gather traction. Daily chart indicators hint at a bearish bias, with RSI’s negative slope and MACD’s rising red bars suggesting selling momentum. In the four-hour chart, indicators appear flat hinting at a consolidation of losses. In Friday’s session, the XAU/USD was observed at a trading level of $2,025, marking a dip of 0.40%. Focus is set on next week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures from January after the US downward revised the December figures, to continue placing their bets on the next Federal Reserve (Fed) decisions.

Technical Overview With Chart :​

Moving Averages :​

Exponential :​

• MA 10 : 2032.3019 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 2032.5195 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 2024.8748 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :​

• MA 10 : 2035.7342 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 2030.0041 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 2033.6970 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 46.9072 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator : 38.4197 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance And Support Levels :​

• R1 : 2069.3814 R2 : 2087.5486
• S1 : 2010.5686 S2 : 1992.4014

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell​

Trade Suggestion: Stop Sell: 2022.31 | Take Profit: 1987.13 | Stop Loss: 2043.41

SILVER​

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Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold, Copper, Oil, Natural Gas.​

Introduction​

Gold prices stagnate around $2,020, grappling with conflicting signals amid hawkish Fed sentiments and positive market sentiment. The USD’s defensive stance, driven by Fed rate cut uncertainty, offers support. Traders eagerly await Tuesday’s US CPI data for market direction. Meanwhile, Copper faces a downturn on the discovery of a sizable deposit in Zambia, signaling potential oversupply. Oil prices dip as Israel concludes Gaza strikes, alleviating Middle East supply concerns. Natural gas experiences a three-year low due to increased production and policy uncertainties, reflecting a bearish market sentiment.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD​

Gold Price Flat-Lines Amid Mixed Cues, Look To US CPI On Tuesday For Fresh Impetus.​

Gold price struggles to lure buyers amid hawkish Fed expectations and the upbeat market mood. The Fed rate cut uncertainty keeps the USD bulls on the defensive and lends support to the metal. Traders await Tuesday’s US consumer inflation figures before placing directional bets. Gold price (XAU/USD) kicks off the new week on a subdued note and oscillates in a narrow trading range, just above the $2,020 level during the Asian session. The recent surge in the US Treasury bond yields, bolstered by the upbeat US macro data and hawkish rhetoric from several Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, along with a generally positive risk tone, act as a headwind for the safe-haven precious metal. The downside, however, remains cushioned in the wake of a softer US Dollar (USD), which tends to benefit the USD-denominated commodity.

Technical Overview With Chart :​

Moving Averages :​

Exponential :​

• MA 10 : 2030.6821 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 2031.6503 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 2024.8167 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :​

• MA 10 : 2034.7780 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 2028.4637 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 2033.5879 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 46.5022 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator : 31.6536 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance And Support Levels :​

• R1 : 2069.3814 R2 : 2087.5486
• S1 : 2010.5686 S2 : 1992.4014

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell​

Trade Suggestion: Stop Sell: 2022.73 | Take Profit: 2001.46 | Stop Loss: 2036.41

COPPER​

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Daily Commodity Analysis – WTI, Corn surge, Gold, and Silver await.​

Introduction​

WTI oil prices surge towards $77.00 amid escalating Middle East tensions, fueled by Houthi strikes on a ship. Geopolitical concerns in the Israel-Hamas conflict heighten supply disruption fears. Meanwhile, US shale production may increase by 20,000 bpd in March. In the agriculture sector, corn closes higher, supported by increased weekly shipments, while gold and silver prices remain steady, awaiting US inflation data for rate cues.

Markets In Focus Today – CRUDE OIL​

WTI Rises Towards $77.00 On Escalated Middle East Tension, Houthi Strikes At A Ship.​

WTI price extends its gains on a threat of supply disruptions due to the Israel-Hamas conflict. Yemen’s Houthi rebels launched missiles at a ship headed for a port in Iran. US top shale-producing regions could increase output by 20,000 bpd to 9.7 million bpd in March. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price extends its winning streak initiated on February 5, buoyed by heightened geopolitical tension in the Middle East. The price of Crude oil climbs towards $77.00 per barrel during the Asian session on Tuesday. Yemen’s Houthi rebels reportedly launched missiles at a ship headed for a port in Iran, resulting in minor damage to the vessel but no injuries to its crew, according to authorities.

Technical Overview With Chart :​

Moving Averages :​

Exponential :​

• MA 10 : 75.6741 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20 : 75.0692 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50 : 74.9993 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple :​

• MA 10 : 74.9310 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20 : 75.2041 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50 : 73.3472 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 59.0643 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator : 69.4536 | Buy Zone | Positive

Resistance And Support Levels :​

• R1 : 78.6054 R2 : 80.9659
• S1 : 70.9639 S2 : 68.6034

Overall Sentiment: Bullish Market Direction: Buy​

Trade Suggestion: Limit Buy: 76.69 | Take Profit: 79.03 | Stop Loss: 75.49

Wheat Futures​

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Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold down, Copper crisis, Oil up, Gas struggles.​

Introduction​

“As Gold struggles near a two-month low, the stronger-than-expected US CPI data diminishes hopes of a Fed rate cut, keeping the precious metal below $2,000. Meanwhile, copper faces pressure from a stronger dollar and concerns over slowing economic growth, exacerbated by a massive deposit discovery in Zambia. Oil prices rise on positive demand forecasts, while natural gas languishes due to warmer weather predictions reducing heating demand.”

Markets In Focus Today – Gold​

Gold Price Struggles Near Two-Month Low As Hot US CPI Temper Fed Rate Cut Bets.​

Gold price hits a fresh two-month low amid bets that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer. The expectations were reaffirmed by the stronger-than-expected US CPI released on Tuesday. A softer risk tone lends support to the safe-haven XAU/USD and helps limit any further losses. Gold price (XAU/USD) continues with its struggle to attract buyers and languishes below the $2,000 psychological mark, or a two-month low through the early European session on Monday. The stronger-than-expected US consumer inflation report released on Tuesday reaffirmed market expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates higher for longer. This, in turn, is seen undermining the non-yielding yellow metal, though a combination of factors lends some support and helps limit the downside.

Technical Overview With Chart :​

Moving Averages :​

Exponential :​

• MA 10 : 2017.0634 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 2023.9850 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 2022.0886 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :​

• MA 10 : 2025.0466 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 2025.6890 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 2032.2712 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 35.7932 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic Oscillator : 8.4879 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance And Support Levels :​

• R1 : 2069.3797 R2 : 2087.5470
• S1 : 2010.5670 S2 : 1992.3997

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell​

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 1994.62 | Take Profit: 1972.58 | Stop Loss: 2009.82

COPPER​

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