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#Gold Overview. Mixed Data from 3 Sources.





Fake (or False) breakout is one of the most tricky things in trading. This is how the market (professional side) make fools (losses for retail traders). The number of Fake Breakouts increase at the psycho levels (round numbers). Look at 1550 blue line. We had very clear breakout divided into 2 parts:


1) Evening of 04 Sept (Blue arrow). Everything looks bullish, but look at the response


2) Red Arrows point at price falling amid an increase in volume. This is a genuine Supply activity after Non-professional bulls were trapped above 1550. (Check the history - you will find Minor Trap Up-moves before Major Break Down in the 90% of cases, even on news events).


On the following days we got Stop-Loss-Killing above 1525 level (circled) and the test of center line of the upward channel.


Well, what is next? Actually, market is quite balanced. We have support from bottom line of up-trend channel with Demand Surge (green line) on the background. But if the bulls are really strong, we should see some sort of quick bounce from the line of support. Instead, price is chilling around 1500.


Intraday clusters (see additional chart) show the attempt of bulls to drive price up (after Trap for bears). But this bullish attempt can be quickly exhausted with mentioned signs of weakness above 1520. So, short-term outlook is neutral.


https://i.imgur.com/wKybzAB.png
 

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This is #AAPL #stock, yesterday Price & Volume action, intraday fast TF. I use this chart to illustrate the principles that do happen in every market.



The average trader can see here Head and Shoulder's pattern. What do see me? Up-Waves with exhausting of Bull's power.


1) The first up-wave collects 574k of Volume
2) The second up-wave collects 301k of Volume

3) The third up-wave collects 243k of Volume


The Volume on up-wave diminishes. It means the Exhausting of Demand Power. As a result, we got "P" formation on the profile. What is the inner working? 1st up wave attracted FOMO buyers who wished to follow the rise of price. Professional traders use the FOMO surge in order to establish shorts. Study the clusters. If the busi trading activity above 219.30 does represent the real strength, market should pump. But it did trade in the range. So, "P" profile is the hidden Weakness.


And the appearance of Sellers is a moment when retail bulls found themselves in bad positions. The appearance of Supply (arrow 4) after No-Demand sign - is a signal to short. This is a way to trade in harmony with market.


So, does SHS have more sense now?
 

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howtoreadchart

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Here is the intraday 5m cluster chart (or footprint) of #AAPL #stock.



But the described principles below are valid for other markets/TF. Just think how people lose money - and charts become more full of sense.

1) market forms minor low. People tend to "hide" their SLs under low such this. Minute by minute, the number of SLs are growing there. When market "see" the number is big enough, it...
2) ..drop right there. This is an SLK - stop-loss-killing action.
3) And one more shot to kill more SLs.
4) Here is Demand wave: a) green clusters b) strong close c) breaking resistance. Plot SFDB on this level. Market should find support around 2019.80-219.90.
5) Supported.
6) This is a Trap for bears. Not very obvious. But study the price action. It was several bars of decline. Indicators encountered people and bots to sell. But what we got soon?
7) Demand bar. This DB was powered by SFDB level.


Market closed at 220.70. Just imagine the emotions of buyers who were knocked out from market at points 2 and 3.


From the short-term picture, market is bullish while price is trading above 220.10-220.20.
 

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Is the current VETUSD (crypto) strong?

Well, technically we have a balance A-B, It was broken up by the surge of demand (point 1). Moreover, price is holding above SFDB line (point 2).

But personally I am skeptic about current rally. Look at the bottom. We have green-red indicator. It represents the balance between Bids and Asks. If those bids are fake? What if they can be withdrawn in one moment? If those bids are real, why is price moving so slowly in upward direction? The high A was gained easier?

So, we have buying signals on this chart (for example testing SFDB line), but personally I do not feel the confidence to follow them. Point C looks as the SLKT Trap.
 

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Yesterday I wrote about my skepticism related to VETUSD market. Actually, it made a step down as other Alt-Cryptos.
This post is dedicated to EVRt sign. I pick ETCUSD market to outline this sign in better details.





Study the behavior of price /volume when the market did reach blue circle level. Think about the volume as the quantity of effort. And measure the result on the price axis. You can make a suggestion - bulls have spent a lot of efforts to push the market higher, but they did gain small progress. Market profile forms a shape of "P" letter. And how can the inner working be described? Professional traders put a lot of SELL-Limit orders above high A. That is why we have big volume and a small bullish result. This is a sign of EVRT (a sign of weakness).


Note the following response.

a) Price formed short term balancing wedge (blue lines)
b) Bearish movement - price decline amid rising volume (red lines).

This change in character confirms the weakness in EVRT wave.

What is next?
1) Huge volume down-bar could be interpreted as the attempt of market to shake out weak holders (hidden strength)
2) Price broke up in the upward direction from the balancing wedge (confirmation of strength).
3) Plot the SFDB around at the breakout level. While the price is holding above SFDB - intraday traders have the arguments to play in the bullish team.
 

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It was a poor morning for #GBP #GBPUSD. We have a very clear indication of weakness above 1.255.





Falling price is entering the Zone of Support @ round number 1.25. It should produce some sort of bounce up. But Read the Chart. We have a lot of weakness overhead. Definitely, it will be hard for bulls to extend bounce up move into sustainable up-trend.
 

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NASDAQ Stock Index Wide Picture Overview






I use daily TF, data from CME, futures market.



I did divide the chart into components - waves. Let's analyze every component and combine them into the opinion.



A) Upwave 10/March-2/May. This upwave formed a busy trading range (1) around 7375, and culminated on 7850 level (2). We can see a spike in profile (2), this is a distribution stage. I believe, news was good. And professional operators unload their holdings onto buying rush of FOMO public.



B). Downwave started on Monday 05/May. We got 4 red candles in a row, the first time for a long time. Volume did increase. Declining price amid falling price - is the typical bearish behavior. If Chart reader were able to detect the distribution range at the top of up-wave A, this decline did not make a surprise for them.



Note, price bounced up (3) from profile spike (1). But we can see ND sign (lack of buyers) at the top of bounce movement (15/May). As a coincidence, the supply did arrive on 16-19/May.



Downwave B Culminated in form of Panic volume spike and Fake penetration (SLKB) of the low of the up-wave A. Many investors had to turn bearish (enter shorts) because their systems detected the first lower low. But it turned into the Trap for them.



C) The general shape of up-wave C builds the vision of the letter "P". We have a lot of volume at the top of the wave. As you can see, profile spots the spike at 7950 level (4). How can we interpret it? Another range of Distribution? Oh yeah. Market penetrated the top of the up-wave A. Many investors had to turn bullish (enter longs) because their systems detected the higher high. But it turned into the Trap for them. 25-28/July were No-Demand days.



D) On 29/July, the new Supply-wave did start. It culminated (Intraday Panic Selling 05/Aug) at the level of horizontal spike (5). That downwave formed shape with profile spike 7475 (5). Later. this level was tested (6). And after SLKB Trap on 25/Aug (7) ...



E) ...a new up-wave was started by Demand Bar on 4/Sep (8). But as you can see, the character of the movement is not very speedy and easy.



So, what is the judgment?



We have HEAVY supply around 8k level. Despite the market is trading within the current up-trend wave, IMO, bulls have no enough power to overcome 8k Resistance soon.
 

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Let's take a wide view on Bitcoin/USD market. I use 3D TF and average data from 5 Major exchanges.

Read the Chart:
1) No Supply under 9k

2) The surge of demand broke out 9k resistance.

So, we have 9k support after 1+2 actions.

3) Buying culmination above 12k. Check Google Trends. "Bitcoin price" was extra-popular on the 25-20/Jun days. This is a sign of FOMO Climax.

4) Bounce up from 9k Support. If the market were bullish, it should overcome the Jun/July highs. However, we got only a fake breakout of 12k level (5)

6) The second bounce up from 9k support. What the result? Price did not even reach 11k.

Well, the inability of market to rally after bounces from support line - is the bearish sign. The last 4 red bars have low volume. Why trading activity is low? If market has a lack of buyers (demand), then we should expect the breakdown of 9k line with an increase in volume (supply pressure). In this potential case (I believe in), a decline should develop down to 6k support.
 

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In the previous post about bitcoin, I wrote:


we should expect the breakdown of 9k line with an increase in volume (supply pressure). In this case, decline should develop down to 6k support.


So, the bearish journey toward 6k has begun. Actually, It has begun... much earlier.


Take a look at the big vertical picture to know what I mean.

 
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