Live Forex Day Trading - Forex Day Trading Room

[liveforexdaytrading.com]

Hello everyone,

We have seen mild risk appetite here this European morning. EUR/USD managed to break above the 2 hour EMA and holding above the daily pivot for the most time. It was no significant move yet though with the 5 day VWAP and the 100 hourly MA still pretty far above the price. These moving averages meet the resistance right now around 1.2335. I move above this area could trigger some larger short covering. A lot will depend on the outcome of the FOMC meeting minutes later. I will not guess here too much about the FED making a move or not but with the recent US data and mind the FED may run out of time soon here if they stay passive.



Since we did not get risk-off this morning I had to look for a pair which looked best on a risk-on scenario. GBP/USD tried to break the 100 hourly MA yesterday several times but failed to make a significant move above this MA. I felt today the pair might have enough energy to break higher with the other MAs slowing pointing up. I went long at 1.5538 and took half out at 1.5550 and trailed my stop for the other half at 1.5547 where I got stopped out for +10.5 in total. I was looking for a retrace now back to the breakout area and another attempt to break higher. I was pretty sure Cable would do this after posting a fresh high for the week. Nevertheless I decided to pull out at BE because EUR/USD looked weak at this point and was about the break the trend line. When I saw EUR/USD bouncing off the trend line I jumped in a long GBP/USD again at 1.5538 and closed half for +10 and second half for +20. Therefore the result was +25 pips for the session.



I am probably going to sit on my hands this US session and not trade in front of the FOMC meeting.

Regards,
Marco

 

[liveforexdaytrading.com]

Hello everyone,

The market remains very pessimistic here about the further situation in Europe and the growth outlook in China. Today not only the Euro suffered against the USD and JPY but also the GBP and AUD. EUR/USD broke the 1.2200 level this morning and it’s on his way to the 1.2000 barrier. I was not so sure about direction this morning since we have mostly seen the moves in direction of the trend in the US session and more or less consolidation moves in the European morning. I took therefore only a 1/2 sized position when I went short and was looking for the 100% Fib Expansion in the 15min chart which was at 1.2190 and a stop above the daily pivot. We did not get the momentum going and I decided to pull out around break even. In the end EUR/USD hit the target.



GBP/CHF looked toppy with a head and shoulder formation forming. I took a short with ½ size again when we got the re-test of the former support level. The stop was placed behind the trend line. Again we got no real momentum with USD/CHF going higher and GBP/USD being weak. I closed half again around break even and got stopped out for the remaining ¼ sized position. This added up for a loss of 6 full pips for the morning.
The strategy is still to buy USD and JPY after some retraces. I will play it small size though now with these oversold conditions. Nevertheless no need to fight the trend until it is broken.



Regards,
Marco

 

[liveforexdaytrading.com]

It was a bit of a mixed bag this week with equity market actually finishing up for the week while the USD and the JPY continued to strengthen. Even AUD showed some weakness this week on back of some negative domestic numbers. The outlook for Europe and the US remain downbeat and if China also loses steam I don’t see the market holding up. But as I said in my previous posts I don’t think we will see any major sell-off in the US market in an election year. I still prefer to play the risk-off side here in the currency market though. I just don’t see any good news here on the horizon to give the market a lift. The only good news would be the FED decided to start another round of QE but that will only happen if things get even worse. The main strategy remains to looks for good opportunities to buy JPY and USD. If I see a shift in the sentiment here I will change my strategy but sometimes the trend is really your friend and there is no need to overcomplicate things.

EUR/USD took out the lows from May significantly and besides a bit of a short squeeze in Fridays late trading it was mostly downhill for the pair. We went as low as the 1.2150 region and finished at 1.2250. The old 1.2288 support is now the near term resistance as well as the 100 hourly EMA and the 5 day VWAP which are just between the 1.2288 level and Fridays price at the close. It is hard to say if we have seen a short term bottom here with all indicators still showing the bearish sentiment but shorts also getting nervous as seen on Friday. We are oversold here but maybe not as hard as many think. The CFTC report showed the short positions climbed by just 19K from 146k to 165K. That size it also surly trimmed with the 100 pips squeeze we have seen Friday so I still look for short until the 1.2288 level is taken out. If EUR/USD manages to break the area 1.2363 and 1.2411 are possible targets for the retrace. Note that the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement level is also at 1.2363. To the downside there is not support but the psychological important 1.2000 level and the 1.1875 area.



GBP/USD made even a stronger comeback on Friday. This was supposed to be a bearish outlook but the 200 pip move to the upside on Friday brought the pair almost back right to the 20 day VWAP. I am still slightly bearish as long as the pair stays below 1.5600. A move above that level could even trigger a move to 1.5725. The pair still looks rather messy with that erratic sideways range. I will go with the short term momentum in this this pair and decide on daily basis to trade it short or long. Support is 1.5400 and the major key support remains 1.5250. As long as Cable does not break the 1.5725 level I still expect a break of the 1.5250 key support based on the daily chart. I have some Fibonacci expansion target levels at 1.5120 and 1.4705.



AUD/USD is also starting to lose any direction here. It looks like the pair is forming a triangle formation. AUD/USD fell below the 1.0125 Support but managed to get above the level with ease after hitting the 100% Fibonacci expansion level and is now trading even above the 5 day VWAP again. I am pretty neutral on the pair and I think we might see a bit of sideways consolidation here. We have a resistance zone 1.0243-1.0277. Even with the strong rebound we still have lower highs and lower lows here. On the other hand the support area hold and the VWAPs are suggesting a bullish trend. I will stay away from the pair until it eventually breaks out and shows me a clearer direction again.

 

[liveforexdaytrading.com]

Hello everyone,

We had a very slow session here this morning until the very last minutes. For most of the time EUR/USD was trading in a 20 pip range while GBP/USD was slowing grinding lower. I was looking for move back to the pivot in GBP/USD and long in that area with a tight stop below 1.5500. I decided to take a small short but lost patience in the lackluster move and closed the trade for – 3 pips. Then I took a ½ sized long at the mentioned level but the pivot did not hold. I closed ½ again just holding a ¼ position with the 61.8% FE target in mind. Cable bounced to the 30 min 20 EMA and I moved my SL to 1.5522 where I got stopped out. The pair did not make a new low and moved higher again and I jumped in with a ¼ position again at 1.5428 and added ¼ with the break of 1.5550. I closed everything around at 1.5454 making this a break even day for the official trades. On my own account I traded in the US session the re-test of the Asia high for a few pips but I just mentioned that setup in the room at the beginning of the European session. I hope some members did catch that trade. I think Cable could move all the way to the 100% FE just in front of 1.5700. Let’s see if we can get an entry tomorrow or if the move will already happen in front of the session.



EUR/USD also looks slightly bullish here with the 100 hourly EMA finally taken out. While 1.2290 is the short term target I think we will see 1.2365 which is the 38.2 retracement and also the former support. If EUR/USD gets there the 20 day VWAP will also meet up there and this could be a good entry level for short.



Regards,
Marco

 

[liveforexdaytrading.com]

Hello,

It has been a pretty sluggish morning here with all pairs staying in a rather tight range. I was looking for a continuation of the trend here and saw an opportunity when EUR/USD hit the 30 min 20 EMA in the beginning of the session. I was taking only a ½ sized long position here because at the Frankfurt open things are not sorted out and I like it to play safe. The stop was behind the daily pivot. The 30 min 20 EMA did not hold and the next 15min candle closed below that MA. I took out half again for -8 pips just in case EUR/USD decided to retrace further. I wanted to add the position again but only in case of some momentum to the upside. I was looking for a break of the retracement trend line and did add again at 1.2292 when it finally broke. I closed half in front of the round number and my second entry at the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion level for +12 and + 14 pips. With all being on ¼ size it was just +4.5 points total today. There is really not much to say here in front of Bernanke’s speech. It is pretty sideways right now. I expect no sign of QE and therefore a stronger USD but from a TA perspective I can’t go long USD right now.



Regards,
Marco

 

[liveforexdaytrading.com]

Hello,

It was a pretty uneventful day here as for the trading results. I took three trades and all got stopped out at break even. EUR/USD, EUR/JPY and GBP/USD are still stuck in their consolidation ranges and I have to wait here for a break-out to be more active. I tried a momentum trade in EUR/USD the London open but the ranges this morning were too tight to get any momentum going. I put my Sl at BE after the initial push and closed at BE when the momentum faded.
With the equity markets still looking bullish I was waiting for break-out in the FDAX in the European session and the S&P 500 in the US session to get into a long AUD/USD. That pair is still correlating nicely with the equity markets where other pairs seem to move out of sync with the stock market at the moment. The FDAX was trading in a very narrow range after closing the gap and my intention was to get long AUD/USD as soon as the Index would break above the gap close. I put my stop at BE again after a few pips in the plus and got stopped out at the entry level again when the short lived risk-on sentiment faded. My last attempt for a trade was in the US session. I was looking at the S&P 500 at that time and the Index was holding the daily pivot. I was waiting for a break of the trend line in the S&P 500 and a break of the resistance in AUD/USD to get into a breakout trade. Since AUD/USD was facing the former swing high point right away I had to put my stop again to BE in case of a double top. We got stopped out again at breakeven just to see AUD/USD surging higher after re-testing the breakout level. Nevertheless that is something you see in hindsight. At the point of the trade it was technically right to put the stop at Break even after the test of a previous swing point.







Regards,
Marco

 

[liveforexdaytrading.com]

Hello,

Again a very choppy day here for most pairs but the AUD pairs. AUD is still going higher steady with equity markets here. Today I was waiting for a range break-out in EUR/USD and GBP/USD to the upside and then go long on a re-test. GBP/USD did at least break a little trend line and made a re-test. The pair also made a retrace back to the 30min 20 EMA after making a new high in the 15min chart. I went long at 1.5662 on a small ¼ size because the pair was just in front of the the resistance level. I liked the 15min chart though and was looking for a push to 1.5680. We got that move and I got out for +16 pips. Worse than expected retail sale numbers brought the pair back to the 2 hour 20 EMA/pivot which would have been a great entry level in hindsight. I was staying away from that because I though with that kind of numbers Cable would have a hard time to push higher. Cable did bounce though and hit the 100% Fibonacci expansion targets. Right now the pair is facing the 1.5720 resistance which was my final target level for that move. We have to see where we go from here.



EUR/USD was meanwhile also making a new high in the 15min but did not break the range significantly. We got a little pullback to the 15min 20 EMA and I went long at 1.2298 ¼ size after a bullish candle. Again with small size because I only wanted to risk what I made this morning. We did not get any momentum and I took the trade out for -12 pips. Right now EUR/USD is trading in the middle of the range again. I can’t make any predictions here until we finally move here to one or the other side. If the pair breaks to the downside I am also will to go short after a re-test. Inside the range things are tough to predict. Bottom line it was just +4 pips on ¼=+1 for today in a choppy market.



Regards,
Marco

 

[liveforexdaytrading.com]

Hello,

We witnessed again a very slow European session. EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD all traded in range around 25 pips. I was expecting a fake to the upside by the equity markets today and then some weakness later coming into the market. We had a nice run to the upside for stocks so I thought we might see some profit taking on a Friday. I was therefore looking for risk-off plays. The EUR/JPY looked best here with a potential to break the support but the “real” setup I was looking for was a break of support and a re-test of the break-out level. Nevertheless I took a short in EUR/JPY and the anticipation that the FDAX will also break lower. When I saw that the FDAX hold its daily pivot I pulled out at break even. It is getting pretty tough here to trade in these tight ranges in the European morning. As usual lately volatility was picking up after the session. We got finally the risk-off move I was looking for and took the mentioned EUR/JPY short setup at 96.17. It was only with ¼ size because I planned to add on a move to 96.30. We never got that high and EUR/JPY went down to the DS2 pivot level. I got out a bit earlier though for +23 pips. I still expect more risk-off here short term but on some pairs like the AUD/USD or NZD/USD any moves to the downside are just retraces for a possible move higher. Euro is still looking very weak with making new lows on several cross-pairs like EURJPY and EUR/GBP.



Regards,
Marco

 

[liveforexdaytrading.com]

Hello.

We got plenty of negative news here for the markets over the weekend. Germany and the IMF signaling that they are not willing to aid Greece anymore and Spanish bond yields reach a record high. Usually I care more for the technical analysis than the fundamentals but in that case I was pretty sure that we would see selling in the Euro in the European session and went short right at the open. But the world can fall apart it seems and we still don’t get a follow-through in the European session it seems. EUR/USD ended actually up for the session while GBP/USD,AUD and stocks took a dive. Sometimes the markets make no sense especially on a Monday. We got stopped out for -26 pips on ¼ when I put my stop behind the reversal candle at the 30 min 20 EMA. The size was just ¼ because I don’t like to sell lows in the first place but was also looking for a better level around 1.2150 to get short with a larger size. We have a gap to fill at 1.2155 and I don’t like to trade against the fill when my entry level is that far away from the gap. We never got to my desired entry level and I went short again at 1.2107 after the trend line break. The fact that the decent moves recently started in the US session was also in my mind. We got a quick push to the downside and I got out for +33 pips. The trade was also on just ¼ size because my entry was so far away from the weekend gap.



I was also watching EUR/AUD very closely. I still have a 1.1350 target on the daily chart for that but was never able to get into the move. I went short at 1.1787 half size with a very tight stop at 1.1794 above the resistance. The main reason for the entry was that a 100% Fib expansion target was hit and I was expecting a move back to the 61.8% level before a possible move higher. I closed half for plus 13 and got stopped out for -7 on the second half. I am still looking for an entry around the 100 EMA/5 day VWAP. Stop should be tight above the 5 day VWAP.



Regards,
Marco

 

[liveforexdaytrading.com]

Hello,

The story remains the same: No follow-through moves in the early European trading. We have to look for small scalps until that change again. With Moody’s putting Germany on a negative outlook I was looking for risk-off trades. I went short EUR/USD right after the open and was looking for a test of the daily pivot. We got the test and the break of the pivot and I grabbed quick 11 pips on ½ sizes. I was not looking for more than that because the moves have been so sluggish lately around that time. EUR/USD bounced as expected and I had to wait for my next chance. EUR/JPY was looking weak after a retrace to the 30 min 20 EMA and some selling at the EMA. Even my entry was pretty late on an entry below the recent low in the 15min chart I was pretty sure we could see some downward momentum to the 94.45-35 support area. I just took the trade out for 10 pips on half size to be on the save side when we got the push. I took another small short in EUR/USD at the end of the session but closed it at break even. The session result was therefore +21 pips on ½ size=10 pips.
I am still expecting some weakness in the market when the US session starts. I also like the Euro cross pairs to the downside. I have some EUR/AUD and EUR/GBP short in my personal account with stops above the recent swing highs and pretty large downside targets.





Regards,

Marco