Live Forex Day Trading - Forex Day Trading Room

[liveforexdaytrading.com]

Hello,

The light volume summer trading is at a peak right now. Choppy moves in either direction and rare follow-trough moves make it tough to spot any decent trends here. I was expecting the risk-on sentiment to continue and was looking to sell the USD this morning. The DAX made and early attack of the 7000 level and I was expecting a gap fill and a second attack of the 7000 area. I went long EUR/USD with just ¼ size at 1.2377 with a stop below the 5day VWAP. I did not have high hopes for the trade in the first place since I was expecting a gap fill in the DAX but I also did not want to miss the party in case of a strong risk-on rally. The DAX filled the gap as expected but went lower than I anticipated and EUR/USD did not manage to break the Asian session high. I got out for -10 pips which has been a good decision considering the fact that the pair is trading around 100 pips lower as I am writing this recap. At that time I was still expecting the market to move higher though. I went long with a ½ size AUD/USD at 1.5494 with a 17 pip stop since the pair was still trading above the moving averages. With risk-appetite totally fading away the stop got hit. AUD/USD is still looking ok as long as 1.0560 holds but the weak Euro is weighting on the market right now. So far it has been not a good week for the morning sessions. Today it was -11 full pips. Nevertheless these loses are unavoidable if you follow the trend and you get intraday reversals for a couple of days.







Regards,
Marco

 

[liveforexdaytrading.com]

Hello,

The market looked kind of weak in the European session but recovered the losses in the US session. Euro remained almost at its lows though. Overall the markets traded in a very choppy way. I was looking for risk-off trades in the beginning of the session. EUR/JPY was my pair of choice today since I expected the pair filling the gap to the 20 day VWAP. The 5day VWAP and the 100 hourly MA were taken out yesterday to the downside so I expected that sellers would be in control today. I took a ¼ sized short at 96.48 and was looking for a quick 20 pips. We got the momentum I was looking for and the pair was testing the previous low around the London open. The break of the low did not occur with the power I had hoped for and I got out for +16 pips= +4 full points. My final target would have been just in front of 96.00 where I also had my 100% Fibonacci expansion levels. Euro weakness brought the pair down to 96.70. Another reason for the entry was the not so pretty Head and Shoulder pattern I spotted. The setup is completed here and we have also a trend line coming up as support. The pars also managed the close above the 20 day VWAP. I am kind of neutral now on this pair. Right now it could both ways next week.





Regards,
Marco

 

[liveforexdaytrading.com]

Hello,

The markets are still moving in a consolidation range. Risk appetite has faded but selling pressure of risk-on assets remains also low. Stocks are still in demand in a low interest environment on lack of alternatives. A report today from Bloomberg that Hedge Funds capitulated on European Stocks shorts underlines this picture. I was looking for any decent setups yesterday but the market was just stuck in a very tight range. We saw some EUR/AUD short covering which continued trough out the day and AUD/USD was looking a bit weak while EUR/USD chopped around a bit. I had to look for some more exotic pairs and CAD/JPY looked decent to the upside with the Moving averages lined up in the correct order. The pair was also re-testing the pivot and I was hoping of a follow through move to the Dr1 pivot level. Not much of a surprise: No follow through momentum on a Monday morning and I got stopped out for -12 pips on a ¼ size=- 3 pips. Not else much to say about this day. Like everyone else right now I am waiting for a break out move and some direction. Volume is still very thin but I expect that things getting better in 2 weeks.



Today I was expecting a bit risk-appetite and was looking for an entry in EUR/USD or EUR/JPY. The moving averages were lined up in the correct order in both pairs. The S&P 500 Index established a base above the 1400 level and I thought we could get more buying today. Usually I look for AUD/USD long trades in this case but AUD/USD still was trading below some moving averages. My only concern for a risk-on trade was that the European equity markets opened with a gap which was to fill to the downside. Nevertheless I did not want to miss the move and went long EUR/USD with a ¼ size at 1.2363. In hindsight the EUR/JYP long would have been the better choice. EUR/JPY immediately caught momentum and went 30 pips higher after the open while EUR/USD lacked behind. You can see in the charts below that EUR/JPY hit the 100% Fibonacci expansion level in the end. For EUR/USD I did not had such high hopes. My target was around 1.2385. Some technical resistance, The Dr1 pivot level and the 61.8 FE level were all lined up around this area. I used the first push to that area the exit the trade for +16 pips=+4 full points. You have to be humble with the targets in this choppy environment. Meanwhile the pair fell all the way back to the pivot. I see the up and down moves to be continuing for a while. The lack of any important news in the next two weeks and the thin volume will make trading probably very tiresome. I am slightly bullish for the coming days though. No news is good news these days I guess.





Regards,

Marco

 

[liveforexdaytrading.com]

Hello,

Another day-same price action. Most pairs had a 25 pips wide range during the session. JPY looked a bit weak at the start of the session and decided to go long in EUR/JPY with just ¼ size again. This trade was just based on a bit momentum we got and the fact that the Moving averages were in the right order and the pair was trading above the daily pivot The hourly chart did not look that appealing though and I was just looking for a few pip in the front of the recent high. I closed the trade for +15 pips=roughly +4 full point. There is no need to overanalyze things right now. The market does not make meaningful attempts to break out to either side. For now it is better to concentrate on the lower timeframes and to catch every little bit momentum we get. When the market extends the range then I will look more again on the higher timeframes.



Regards,
Marco

 

[liveforexdaytrading.com]

Hello,

No trades were taken on Thursday on absence of any setup and Friday ended Break even on a small GBP/USD short attempt.

I guess I sound like broken record here but not much going on here in the currency markets. The ranges are very tight and with the exception of the JPY most currencies fell into the summer coma. The JPY lost a bit its shine on some risk appetite. Equity market made new highs and therefore made a first attempt to break out of the sideways consolidation here. I am not sure if the attempt was for real. I could see the market retrace back to the lower end of the range and even further before making the “real” move to new highs. But I could be wrong here also and we could get a stronger risk on rally next week. We did not get much correlation anyway last week. AUD was moving lower for instance despite a rally in stocks. Overall I am looking forward to September when we will see good Volume behind the moves. Right now the market can fake in both directions without much effort.

EUR/USD is still moving in a sideways consolidation. The pair is above the 5 day and the 20 day VWAP at Fridays close and sellers did not bring the pair below the swing low points. While we have seen a couple of higher lows now the pair failed also the break out to the upside. What you usually get is some sort of triangle pattern and tighter ranges. Everyone is waiting now for a break out to either side before doing any major commitment here. The key level to the upside remains 1.2443 which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. I don’t see much downside potential here until September on the absence of major news. I case the pairs falls there is some trend line support now and some technical support around 1.2170. For now I feel higher prices for next week are more likely but I doubt that the pair will break 1.2443. I guess we have to deal with more meaningless moves until the summer drought has ended and volatility/volume picks up again.



GBP/USD is trading again in the upper half of the recent trading range. I could already end my analysis here since I am not really interested in sideways ranges and rather stay away until it breaks. Nevertheless we have some higher lows here in the daily chart and I feel the pair is ready to break to the upside. The major resistance right now is the 200 daily moving average which is holding the pair still back. Every time the pair attempts to move past the 200 daily MA it got rejected. ( the MA sitting at around 1.5740 at the moment) Another plus for bulls could be the general risk-on attitude we could get in the next weeks on hopes for more stimulus by the ECB and the FED.



The AUD/USD has seen some decent selling the week. There was not any particular news causing the weakness. My best guess is that the EUR/AUD was in the driver seat this week and a bit of a short squeeze in the cross pair cause the AUD/USD to fall since EUR/USD was not moving much. I guess it has been a pretty frustrating week for bulls with equity market running to new highs and AUD/USD dropping. Usually you see AUD and the Equity markets going in the same direction based on the risk-sentiment but this was just of those weeks where the correlation was not in place. Some technical damage was done on Friday when the important 1.0440 support area was taken out. More support down at 1.0390 where we not only have the 50% Fibonacci retracement level but also the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion level. The strong trend line support also will meet this level soon here. For now we have lower lows and lower highs here and the price is below the 5 day and 20 day VWAP. Nevertheless I would not be too concerned as a bull as long as the trend line holds. I feel a lot of these moves are rather random right now in a thin summer market. I case we see further weakness 1.0280 and 1.0125 are levels to watch for support. Near term resistance is 1.0525. A break above this level would brighten the picture for the bulls again.

 

[liveforexdaytrading.com]

Hello,

A Monday in August with no news to come out is always a challenge to trade. Volatility hit multi year lows meanwhile which does not make thing easier. To give you an idea in which kind of environment we currently trade: The implied one week volatility in EUR/USD is the lowest since October 2008, in AUD/USD the lowest since July 2007. The Average Daily Range in the S&P 500 was about 8 points last week- the lowest since April 2007. The Volume in the S&P 500 even set a record for the millennium. A fewer shares in anon-holiday period changed hands the last time in 1997. It is hard not to complain here.

I tried to use the tiny bit momentum we had this morning for a long in EUR/USD. I got in a bit late at 1.2349 with ¼ size.My minimum target was the 61.8 Fibonacci expansion level but I was hoping for the 100 FE. The momentum was not strong enough to get the pair to the final target and I closed +15 pips.



EUR/JPY also caught a bit momentum and retraced back to the 30min 20 EMA/pivot area. I took a long with 1/4 size and 15 pips SL after a bullish 15min Candle off that area. Again no follow through momentum here and I got out for -5 pips.



A return of volatility is inevitable but for now I just look for 10-20 per session.

Regards,
Marco

 

[liveforexdaytrading.com]

Hello,

We got finally the long overdone volatility break-out in EUR/USD. There pair made a nice 130 pip rally so far and also broke the 1.2443 key resistance level. With the 61.8% retracement level being history shorts might have a hard time to get back into control. As I stated on the weekend no news are good news and that is EUR/USD positive and therefore I was slightly bullish on EUR/USD. I did not expect the breakout occurring today so I did not really capitalize on that but I also did not stand in its way. I was looking for long EUR/USD early in the Live Room and got in with ¼ size at 1.2360. I was just looking for the 100% Fibonacci expansion level and a test of the previous resistance at 1.2380. I got out for +15 pips. I expected initiative buying on a break of 1.2380 and took a long on the break. I scalped the buy stops orders I was expecting above the 1.2380 level for +8 pips. In hindsight not a good exit but I did not expect that the range gets extended by that much. There is a high chance of a retest of the 1.2445 before further upside now. The next push could bring the pair to 1.2560 where EUR/USD has seen previous support.



Regards,

Marco

 

[liveforexdaytrading.com]

Hello,
It was a pretty uneventful European morning. I was looking for long in EUR/USD and GBP/USD but the price action was very slow once again. I went long GBP/USD at 1.5790 with a tight 10 pip stop. This was a momentum trade and I wanted a break of the Asia session high without much hesitation. Cable just had no momentum and closed at Break even. A few seconds after my exit the pair caught momentum and went to 1.5817. Oh well… We got other nice push after the FOMC meeting minutes. The next target is 1.5908 which is the 61.8% retracement level in the daily chart. My next trade was a long in EUR/USD at 1.2468. We got 10 pips higher and I my put my stop to break even. I wanted the trade being out of risk since the Live room session came to an end. I got stopped out at BE and so was the result for the morning. The pair finally took out the 1.2500 option barrier which got defended all morning and nearing my 1.2560 target. Note the nice re-test of 1.2343 before going higher. It will be tough to get in any further long trades now since I expect this to be the final 5th wave of the latest up move.





Regards,

Marco

 

[liveforexdaytrading.com]

Hello,
The market is getting trickier here with correlation being out of sync. Equity markets took a beating here with the European Indices being down about 1% in average while the EUR/USD made new highs. The US dollar did not perform well despite weaker equity markets and Gold breaking above some key resistance. ( Gold up 2%, Silver up 3.75%). The VIX is trading up 7%. Not really an environment where you would see EUR/USD rally but the hope of more stimulus from the FED makes it hard for Euro bears. The Live room session was kind of boring with tight ranges and choppy price action. I went long AUD/USD but told the members that I was not totally convinced with that trade because I expected that the DAX could make a head and shoulder pattern. The reason why I took the long in the first place was that I had no other option. EUR/USD and GBP/USD already made their move and it was much too late to go long. AUD/USD was the only option left and the setup looked ok but it just did not feel right. I pulled out for -3 pips. With the European equity markets showing some weakness I went short GBP/USD on hope of some risk aversion spilling over to the currency markets. And it hit the 61.8% retracement in the daily chart. We were up a few pips and down a few pips. I closed at breakeven at the end of the session. We will see how much lower the FOMC aftermath will bring the USD here. It might be also not a bad time to stay just out of the market until we get more inter-market correlation again.







Regards,

Marco

 

[liveforexdaytrading.com]

Hello,

I was looking was more retraces this morning as EUR/USD and GBP/USD where still in overbought condition. I took a short in EUR/USD early with the initial Frankfurt open momentum. I calculated the potential for this first push as limited since the 2 hour 20 EMA was in the way for further selling. I got out for just 12 pips. EUR/USD went a bit lower and started a retrace afterwards. I recommended going short in the 1.2550-55 area with a 1.2500 target. I think 1.2553 was the high of the retrace and the pair fell all the way down to 1.2480 where it bounced off the 100 hourly MA. It was not an official call though since EUR/USD hit the 1.2550-55 area right at the end of the session and I like to babysit intraday trades for the members in the live room.



Since I usually look for 15-20 pips in the morning I had still some work to do. I decided to go with a high probability trade to scalp a few extra pips. We put a sell limit order in GBP/USD right below the Asia low at 1.5847 with a tiny 4 pip target. The reason for the small target was the expectation that the 100% Fibonacci expansion level gets hit and then some short covering by algorithm at the level. The plan worked out and the morning ended with +16 pips. Cable made a series of lower lows and lower high throughout the day after wards. Note the pair is drifting lower since it has reached the 61.8% retracement the daily chart.



Regards,

Marco