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[Stan NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for January 14 - 18, 2019​

First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. On Wednesday, January 9, after repeated attempts, the pair managed to break through the upper limit of the mid-term side channel in which it was located, starting from November 2018. Having overcome the resistance in the area of 1.1500, it reached the height of 1.1570, after which the followed by a trend reversal, and the pair once again found itself within the above channel, ending the week at 1.1470.
The weakening of the dollar was influenced by a number of factors: the unplanned “holidays” of the US Government, a very cautious, “pigeon”, speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the Economic Club meeting in Washington, where he pronounced the word “patience” five times. But the main factor, according to many experts, was the active strengthening of the Chinese yuan before the expected signing of a trade agreement with the United States;

- GBP/USD . Recall that only 15% of analysts sided with the bulls last week. But they were right. Unclear prospects for the dollar outweighed the concerns associated with Brexit. The pound was supported by positive UK GDP data released on Friday, January 11th. As a result, the pair rose by almost 150 points, reaching the height of 1.2865, after which a slight rebound followed, and the quotes dropped to the zone of 1.2840;

- USD/JPY. After the “New Year storm,” caused by the lack of liquidity, the Japanese currency is complete calm, moving in a fairly narrow side corridor within 107.75-109.10. The pair met the end of the week in the same place where it started , near the Pivot Point 108.50. The reason for this is the emerging balance between the attractiveness of the yen as a safe-haven currency and the growing interest in other currencies that can bring grat profits if a trade deal is concluded between the US and China;

- Cryptocurrencies. Our review is fundamentally different from other reviews in that it is not an opinion of one particular analyst. In our analysis, we strive to collect as many opinions of various experts as possible so that, getting rid of harmful “noises”, we can identify the main trend that determines the movement of the pairs in one direction or another. However, it can be very difficult, as, for example, now, for cryptocurrencies.
Some experts consider the decline of the main crypto pairs last week as the end of the positive correction that started in mid-December 2018, and a return to the negative dynamics of the market. And someone, on the contrary, see it as a post-holiday syndrome, at the end of which the quotes will again rush up.
Whatever it may be, the crypto market's capitalization fell from $138 billion on January 6 to $123 billion on Friday January 11, having lost almost 11%. The quotes of major cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ethereum, Ripple, and many other, also fell. Thus, the pair BTC/USD is traded near the three-week low in the $3,700 zone.
The reasons for the fall are the fact that investors, hoping for a festive gap, disappointed, are now closing their positions, and the fact that about 40,000 Ethereum coins have been stolen from Gate.io exchange. The news about the failure of the Japanese regulator FSA to launch ETF based on cryptocurrency might also add to the negative reasons. In general, there are many reasons, but the fact remains that all the main altcoins have moved to the red zone and are traded down, from 5% to 23%, as, say, ETH.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. As you know, the European currency has a strong correlation with oil and metals. And on the commodity market, we are now witnessing a positive trend, especially with regard to energy. The intentions of OPEC to completely remove the excess oil from the market should lead to a further increase in prices, which plays into the hands of the euro. The pause, taken by the Fed regarding the increase in lending rates for the US dollar, is worrying investors.
As a result, at the moment, 65% of analysts, supported by 90% of oscillators and 70% of trend indicators on D1, have voted for the rise the pair above the 1.1500 zone up and its growth, first to the height of 1.1550 and then to the level of 1.1625.
The experts, who still remain loyal to the US currency, believe that, returning to the medium-term channel 1.1300-1.1500, it will not break out of it for a long time. And this is why the pair is expected to decline, first to its central line 1.1400, and then 100 points lower;

- GBP/USD. It is clear that the absolute majority of indicators are currently colored green. However, already 10% of oscillators on D1 signal that this pair is overbought. The possibility of its falling to the horizon 1.2600 is indicated by graphical analysis on the daily time frame as well. As for experts, there is no clear advantage here either for bulls or bears. 55% of them have voted for the growth of the pair, and 45% are for its fall.
On Tuesday, January 15, the British Parliament will vote on Brexit. It is likely that the version of the agreement with the EU proposed by Prime Minister Teresa May will be rejected, and another delay is coming. At the same time, it is becoming more and more obvious that a tough divorce with the European Union is not included in the government’s plans, which positively affects the quotes of the British currency. The additional support for the pound is rendered by the rise in oil prices.
Until the results of the voting become known, there is no sense to make any predictions. One can only specify the key levels: support - 1.2780, 1.2720, 1.2660 and 1.2600, resistance - 1.2925 and 1.3050;

- USD/JPY. Indicators and graphical analysis on D1 predict a strengthening of the Japanese currency, with which 65% of experts agree, they expect the pair to decline to 107.50-107.80, and then even lower, to support 106.70.
On the other hand, due to low interest rates in Japan, the pair is quite strongly correlated with the major global stock indices. And the upward trend in this market implies a possible growth of the pair to the levels of 109.10 and 109.45, and in case of the breakdown of the latter, its transition to the zone of 110.25-110.80;

- Cryptocurrencies. Despite the fall in the crypto market capitalization, the average daily number of transactions with Bitcoin approached 280,000 over the last week, which is comparable to the peaks of 2018. Therefore, it is is hardly worth it to predict the end of the benchmark cryptocurrency, and indeed the entire market. But the probability of the BTC/USD breakout of support $3,700 and its return to the mid-December lows in the $3,250 zone remains quite high. This scenario is supported by 45% of experts.
Most analysts believe that next week the pair will be able to stay in the three-week “speculative” zone of $3.685-4.385. However, they speak very cautiously about the rise to the level of $5,000 and only in the longer term.
The expectations for Ethereum are somewhat better. Experts expect that after the hard fork called Constantinople, the ETH/USD pair will go up.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

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[Stan NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for January 21 - 25, 2019​

First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. One of the scenarios suggested that the pair would return to the limits of the medium-term lateral channel 1.1300-1.1500, and its central line was called as the main target. It is this scenario that was brought to life. It was already on Tuesday, January 15, that the pair reached the horizon of 1.1400 and then moved along its length up to the weekend, making oscillations in a fairly narrow range. At the same time, the pair was under constant pressure, which allowed the bears to lower it to the level of 1.1360 by the end of the working week.
The euro is falling for a number of reasons: this is the weak economic indicators of the Eurozone (first of all, Germany), and the decline in export potential, and chaos with Brexit. At the same time, an active game to increase the British pound has been underway recently, which also did not benefit the European currency;

- GBP/USD. Against the background of talk about a possible postponement of the UK’s exit from the EU and even the possibility of a second referendum, the game to raise the pound after the failure of Prime Minister Theresa May during the Brexit vote was particularly well seen in pairs such as EUR/GBP and GBP/CHF. As for the pound against the US dollar, having fought off on Tuesday from the level of 1.2667, it managed to rise by more than 330 points by Thursday, reaching a symbolic height of 1.3000. After that, there followed a strong rebound, and the pair ended the week almost at the same place where it started, in the zone of 1.2870;

- USD/JPY. The balance that emerged a week ago between the attractiveness of the yen as a safe haven and investors' interest in riskier, but also more promising investments, shifted towards the latter. As a result, the pair quotes went up, and by the end of the week, 109.76 yen were already being paid for the dollar;

- Cryptocurrencies. Paraphrasing the name of a famous novel, one can say: "All Quiet on the Crypto Front" Among the positive news is the plans of the Thailand Stock Exchange to obtain a license for operations with digital assets. However, the timing of this initiative is not yet known. The Constantinople hard fork in the Ethereum network is postponed indefinitely until the elimination of vulnerabilities. In general, there reigns a complete uncertainty. Even the ETC tokens stolen from the Gate.io Exchange were for some reason returned back by the attackers without explaining the reasons for their action.
On this blurred news background, the pair BTC/USD is flat. At the same time, the range of its oscillations, starting from Wednesday, is continuously decreasing. Following Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ripple, and other top altcoins also moved to the lateral movement. And even Ethereum managed to partially recover the loss. As a result, the decline in the ETH/USD pair in seven days was only about 5%.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Major investor concerns related to European currency have been listed above. However, not everything is so bad in Europe. Due to the low euro exchange rate, the PMI activity index no longer falls, and many factors point to the stabilization of the eurozone economy. In addition, the market is waiting for the promised ECB interest rate increase in early autumn 2019. As for the US dollar, here, on the contrary, the likelihood of another rate increase in the near term is practically nil. Further growth of the economy is also questionable. Experts believe that the political crisis and the current cessation of government work could lead to a fall in annual GDP of 0.5-0.75%.
All this allows 45% of analysts to talk about the possible strengthening of the euro and the upcoming trend change from bearish to bullish. The immediate goal is the central line of the two-month ascending channel in the 1.1450 zone, then the levels of 1.1500 and 1.1570. 15% of oscillators that give signals that the pair is oversold are in agreement with this scenario.
The remaining 85% of the oscillators, as well as 100% of the trend indicators on H4 and D1, are colored red. 55% of the experts Insist on the further decline of the pair as well. The support levels are 1.1300, 1.1270 and 1.1215.
The ECB decision on interest rates on Thursday, January 24 can be noted among the events of the upcoming week. However, with almost one hundred percent probability the rate will remain unchanged, and therefore this decision will not affect the quotes of the pair. Of much more interest is the speech of Prime Minister Theresa May at the Parliament of Great Britain, where she should announce her backup plan for leaving the country from the EU;

- GBP/USD. Naturally, everything connected with Brexit directly affects the quotes of the pound. And here there are plenty of options for further developments, which makes the British currency a risky and unpredictable asset.
What is the probability of elections? Will the May government change to the Corbin government? How possible is the hard “divorce” scenario with the European Union? And will the timing of “divorce” be postponed in accordance with Article 50 of the EU Treaty? Is there any chance of a new referendum? And wouldn't this referendum be the reason for large-scale protests and riots?
Questions, questions, questions ... And the complete uncertainty, which is fertile ground for rumors and all sorts of speculations. In such circumstances, 40% of experts believe that the pair still has potential for growth, 40% are waiting for it to fall, and the remaining 20% advise to wait for greater clarity, carefully watching the developments.
Support is in zones 1.2800-1.2830 and 1.2615-1.2645. Resistance levels are 1.2920, 1.3000 and 1.3070;

- USD/JPY. Most experts (60%), in agreement with 90% of oscillators, expect the continuation of capital outflows towards riskier assets and a fall in the yen. In this case, the pair can rise to a height of 110.30, and then another 100 -130 points higher - to a strong support/resistance level of 2017-18. in the zone 111.55.
An alternative point of view is supported by 40% of analysts, graphical analysis on D1 and 10% of oscillators, signaling the pair is overbought. The main support levels are 109.00 and 107.75;

- Cryptocurrencies. For the whole past week, the BTC/USD pair was trading in a very narrow range of $3,570-3,800. Very often, such a lull is a harbinger of strong price movements. 45% of analysts believe that the pair will try to break through the lower boundary of this channel, and, if successful, it is expected to decline to the lows of 2018 in the zone of $3,200-3,250. A bit more experts (55%), on the contrary, expect a rebound upwards. The goal is to return the pair to $3,850-4,215. The reason for this optimism is a certain increase in the capitalization of the crypto market, which, compared with January 13, increased by about 5%, approaching the mark of $130 billion.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

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[Stan NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for January 28 - February 01, 2019​

First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. "The "pigeon" rhetoric of ECB Head Mario Draghi during his speech on Thursday January 24 for some time knocked over the pair to the lower border of the medium-term side channel 1.1300-1.1500. However, the bears' joy turned out to be short - lived: having visited the level of 1.1289, the pair turned around and returned to the channel center line, at the 1.1400 zone, by Friday evening. Which is understandable: on closer examination, Draghi didn't say anything special. Noting some strengthening of the labor market and reduction of risks for the Eurozone economy, the head of the ECB said that there was no point in holding a new QE now. At the same time, the time frame for the first raising of the interest rate on the euro remains unchanged.
As for the dollar, the situation is reversed. The latest publication in The Wall Street Journal has strengthened investors' opinion that the US Federal Reserve will soon complete a cycle of tightening monetary policy, and this will happen earlier than analysts had expected;

- GBP/USD. The pound is growing along with the hope of a "soft" version of Brexit. Rumors on this have been warmed up by an article in the British tabloid The Sun with an unconfirmed (!)information that the Democratic Unionist Party can support Theresa May ’s initial deal if changes are made there as for the special terms for Ireland. There are also persisting rumors about a possible long delay in the deal with the EU on the basis of Article 50. The voting in the Parliament of Great Britain on Tuesday, January 29 will show if they are founded. In the meantime, the pound shows steady growth against all major currencies, including the euro, yen and dollar. Having broken through the horizons of 1.3000 and 1.3100, by the end of Friday, January 25, the GBP/USD reached the height of 1.3200, adding more than 300 points a week;

- USD/JPY. Despite the fact that the risk appetites of investors continue to grow, the Japanese currency has stopped falling. The pair moved to a sideways movement in a narrow corridor 109.14-110.00 and ended the week almost in the middle of this corridor, in the zone 109.50;

- Cryptocurrencies. The lull in this market continues, capitalization is not growing, and the major coins rates are showing a sideways trend. Neither criticism from JP Morgan analysts, nor criticism from a number of participants in the World Economic Forum in Davos, who had already completely buried Bitcoin, or the withdrawal of Bitcoin-ETF from the Chicago CBOE exchange, could affect it . The pair BTC/USD could not get out of the corridor of $3,570-3,800. Attempts to break it both up or down ended in failure. In the first case, the pair managed to reach the height of 3.870, in the second - go down to the horizon of 3.460, but eventually returned to the center of the corridor in the region of $3,580-3,675.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The rates of dollar pairs in the near future will certainly be affected by news of trade negotiations with China, which will be held on January 30-31 in Washington, and which have quite a lot of chances for success. In addition, statistics for the US labor market will appear on February 1. However, Trump's economic adviser Larry Cudlow has already “leaked” the information that indicators such as NFP will increase greatly, given a very small number of applications for unemployment benefits.
In addition, on Thursday, January 31, Eurozone GDP data will be published, which are likely to be disappointing.
All this can strengthen the US currency, which is agreed by 60% of experts, expecting the EUR/USD pair to fall, first to the lower border of the medium-term channel 1.1300, and then even lower, to support 1.1270 and 1.1215.
On the other hand, as has already been said, the market has intensified expectations that the tightening of US monetary policy will be phased out. That is why on January 30, special attention should be paid not so much to the Fed's decision on the interest rate (this time it is likely to remain at 2.5%), but rather to the comments of the Fed management on the plans for 2019. And if the information on the number of upcoming rate increases will disappoint investors, we can expect a decline in the dollar, which could turn into a long-term trend. In this case, according to 40% of analysts, the EUR/USD in the near future can break through the upper limit of the channel 1.1500 and reach the level of 1.1580.
And of course, we must not forget about the vote in the British Parliament on Brexit;

- GBP/USD. So, on Tuesday, January 29, Prime Minister Theresa May should announce her alternate plan for leaving the EU in the British Parliament. Some versions of this have already been mentioned in the first part of this forecast. The Labor opposition cannot decide what to do, and this reduces the likelihood of a second referendum or re-election. And the Telegraph is discussing as much as five amendments, which can be put to a vote.
We will know only on Tuesday how the parliamentarians voted. As for our experts, their votes are distributed as follows: 50% expect the pair to fall, 40% see its growth, and 10% are undecided. Supports are at the levels of 1.3070, 1.2900, 1.2820, 1.2700 and 1.26 60. Resistance levels are 1.3250, 1.3300, 1.3360 and 1.3555;

- USD/JPY. Unlike the British Parliament, there are no surprises to be expected from the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy committee meeting on January 28. The rate of the pair may be much stronger affect ed by the information from the United States. This and the information regarding the increase in interest rates on the dollar, and the success or failure in the US-China negotiations January 30-31. If both sides come to a consensus, and it is quite likely, since Trump is in great need, the American stock market will go up. In this case, the rate may rise above 110 yen for 1 dollar. 70% of analysts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, indicate a strong level of 2017–18 in the zone 111.55 as the main target.
An alternative point of view is held by 30% of experts and 15% of oscillators on D1, which give signals that the pair is overbought. In the case of its downward movement, supports are located at horizons 109.15,108.70 and 107.75.

- Cryptocurrencies. The sluggish reaction to the news, which a year ago would have caused fluctuations in quotations in the tens or even hundreds of percent, suggests that the digital currency market is increasingly beginning to resemble Forex. This is facilitated not only by the “water tub”, which has cooled the heat of the most ardent crypto fans, but also by the increased attention from regulators. This time, the Bank of England has attended for the protection of investors, who gathered to classify cryptocurrencies, having divided them into three categories and subordinating to the current legislation.
We think that in the near future we should not expect the arrival of large institutional investors, which their smaller colleagues so much hoped for. The “whales” do not have any goals to earn quick profits, and they will wait until the market situation is completely clear, and the risks from such speculations become the lowest. And such an expectation can last for years and even decades.
In the meantime, as already mentioned, the major coins are in a side trend. However, it is impossible not to notice the persistent pressure from the bears. For example, the Pivot line, around which the BTC/USD has fluctuated over the last two weeks, has dropped by 20 points, the ripple (XRP/USD) has fallen by about 5%, and the Ethereum (ETH/USD) - by 8%. Of course, it is a trifle for crypto pairs, but, perhaps, it is an indicator of the direction of the coming breakthrough.
The overwhelming majority (70%) of experts believe that bitcoin will finally yield to such pressure and will decrease first to the 2018 lows in the $3,200-3,250 zone, and then rush to support at $2,400.
10% of analysts have voted for the continuation of the side trend, and 20% are hoping for the pair to grow and return to the $3,850-4,215 zone.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

 

[Stan NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for February 04 - 08, 2019​

First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. In general, the week has not brought any surprises. No one had expected a rate increase at this FOMC meeting, but investors had been worried about the comments of the Fed management on plans for 2019. And here their forebodings about the “pigeon” comments were fully justified. Instead of specific promises, the regulator spoke about the fact that the decision to further rate increase should take into account global economic factors and be extremely balanced. Thus, the uncertainty caused a sharp sell-off of the dollar, as a result of which the pair soared to the upper border of the medium-term lateral channel 1.1300-1.1500. However, then the situation calmed down, and the pair turned to the south.
Another expected event was the publication of the US labor market data on Friday, February 01. The statistics really turned out to be extremely positive. Thus, NFP grew by 37% compared with the previous month (from 222K to 304K), and the ISM business activity index rose from 54.3 to 56.6. But this did not come as a surprise either thanks to Trump's economic adviser Larry Kudlow, who, as we wrote in the previous review, “leaked” this information long before the official publication. As a result, the market reaction was limited to insignificant fluctuations within 40 points, after which the pair completed the week at the level of 1.1455;

- GBP/USD. The next meeting of the UK Parliament on Brexit has not added any clarity to the process of divorce from the European Union. As a result, the pound lost about 160 points in the first half of the week, and then moved into a sideways trend, making fluctuations in the range of 1.3050-1.3150, and finished the week at the level of 1.3075;

- USD/JPY. Like the rest of the dollar pairs, the USD/JPY responded to the Fed's comment with the US currency dropping to 108.50. However, then, taking advantage of the positive dynamics in the US labor market, the dollar won back the losses, and the pair returned by the end of the week to where it had begun, to 109.50;

- Cryptocurrencies. It was noted In the previous forecast that the major coins are in a side trend, constantly experiencing pressure from bears. 70% of experts had supported the scenario according to which Bitcoin was supposed to yield to such pressure and gradually decrease to 2018 lows. The past week confirmed the validity of such expectations. On Tuesday, February 29, the benchmark cryptocurrency fixed a local minimum at $3,425, after which the rebound followed, and the pair saw February in the $3,500 zone. As for the capitalization of the crypto market as a whole, it “dried out” by 5.5% over the week, dropping to $113.6 billion.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. There appears a hope for a trade deal with China, siding with the dollar. On January 31, another round of negotiations on this topic ended in Washington. And as analysts say, progress in the negotiation process cost both sides a lot of effort. The American negotiators showed an obvious desire to succeed, because President Trump is now in dire need of something positive. However, the industrial espionage accusations made by the Americans against Huawei Technologies Co. somewhat overshadowed the optimistic picture drawn by the parties. The next round of talks is to be held in Beijing in mid-February.
The counterbalance to the successful negotiations, as already mentioned above, was made by the US Federal Reserve, who doubted the need for another increase in the interest rate. And if in the medium term, 60% of analysts are still waiting for the dollar to strengthen, this week the majority (70%) sided with the euro. In their opinion, which is supported by approximately 80% of the oscillators and trend indicators on D1, the EUR/USD will once again try to break through the upper limit of the medium-term side channel 1.1300-1.1500 and gain a foothold in the area of 1.1500-1.1570. The next target is the height of 1.1625.
The alternative scenario has been supported by 30% of experts, graphical analysis on H4 and about 20% of oscillators, giving signals that the pair is overbought. In this case, the pair, having failed to break through the key level of 1.1500, will be located in the side corridor 1.1400-1.1500 for some time. And if there is positive news for the dollar, it will make an attempt to reach support on the horizon of 1.1300;

- GBP/USD. Thursday, February 7 will see a decision of the Bank of England on the interest rate, which is likely to remain unchanged, at the level of 0.75%. Investors are Much more concerned about the situation with Brexit, but there is no clarity here. Moreover, the likelihood of a British exit from the EU without a deal has begun to grow again. That is why 65% of analysts predict a decline of the pair first to the level of 1.2930, and then another 100 points lower.
As for the indicators, about 40% of them are colored red on H4, 40% are green and 20% are neutral gray. Although, on D1 the green color dominates: 60% versus 30% red and 10% gray. The nearest resistance is 1.3215, then 1.3250 and 1.3300;

- USD/JPY. Certain surprises can be expected from this pair in the near future, and the reason is oriental New Year. Traditionally this time is not only for summarizing financial results, but also for active actions by the Bank of Japan, which for several years in a row begins to buy and sell large amounts of currency at this moment. Such interventions can cause a jump of several hundred points, and at the moment most analysts (70%), supported by graphical analysis on D1, expect the pair to first fall to 108.00-108.55, and then return to the horizon 110.00. At the same time, about 60% of experts believe that the pair will not stop at what has been achieved and can reach resistance at the level of 111.70 within a month;

- Cryptocurrencies. Experts and investors can now be divided into two groups. The first group believes that the current lull is the lull before the storm. The second one thinks is that it is a lull before ... even more calm. Andy Bromberg, the head of CoinList crypto exchange, has sided with the latter. , having said in his interview to Yahoo Finance that the situation in the market will be calm as all the necessary instruments have been created already and the companies will focus not on speculations but on innovations and product development.
This scenario is also supported by the report of Circle Research, according to which, despite the fact that direct investment in digital currencies decreased 8.5 times over the year, investments in blockchain companies, on the contrary, increased 3 times and exceeded $5 billion.
As for the forecast for the next few weeks, 70% of experts still believe that Bitcoin should decline to the 2018 lows in the zone of $3,200-3,250, and then rush to support at $ 2,400. The remaining 30% of analysts do not exclude a short-term growth of the BTC/USD pair to $3,700-3,850, and possibly even higher, to the height of 4.215.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

 

[Stan NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for February 11 - 15, 2019​

First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. One of the development scenarios, supported, however, by only 30% of experts, suggested a decline of the pair to the lower border of the medium-term side channel 1.1300-1.1500. This is what happened: having lost about 130 points, the pair recorded the week low at the level of 1.1320.
The reason for the strengthening of the dollar and, as a result, for the fall of the pair, was the growth of anti-risk sentiment due to increased pessimism in resolving the US-China trade conflict and not the most favorable expectations for economic growth in the Eurozone. Thus, the European Commission, talking about "significant risks", has substantially lowered its forecast for the GDP growth from 1.9% to 1.3% in 2019 and from 1.7% to 1.6% in 2020. Such an adjustment has significantly pressured the euro, making the market understand that it is not worth expecting an increase in interest rates this year;

- GBP/USD. In unison with the European Commission, the Bank of England also declared that its previous forecasts were too optimistic, and the lack of clarity with Brexit is a burden for the country's economy. The Bank specialists expect the growth rate to be the lowest in the last 10 years, as a result of which the UK GDP forecast for 2019 has been lowered from 1.7% to 1.2%.
The pound sank sharply on this negative news and, as 65% of the experts had expected, the pair reached 1.2850. Then it rose a little against the background of an article about possible progress in negotiations on the British exit from the EU and special conditions for Ireland, and then sank again and completed the five-day period at 1.2940;

- USD/JPY. The majority of analysts (70%), supported by graphical analysis on D1, had expected strong fluctuations of the rate and the fall of the pair to the zone 108.00-108.55, after which it should return to the horizon 110.00. However, contrary to forecasts, the pair behaved very calmly, and the maximum amplitude of its oscillations did not exceed 60 points. For the third week in a row, time after time, the pair returns to the zone of 109.55-110.0 0. This time again, starting the week session at the level of 109.55, the pair completed it at the level of 109.75;

- Cryptocurrencies. We divided the experts into two groups last week. The first is those who believe that the current calm is the calm before the storm. The second one thinks is that it is a lull before ... even more calm. All week, Bitcoin quotes were falling smoothly and quietly, reaching a low of $3,400 on Wednesday, February 6. Then a very sluggish “side” followed, and Friday afternoon it “jerked”: the BTC/USD rushed up, in a matter of hours adding about 12% and reaching the level of $3,800.
Is this a precursor of a storm? If you look at the graph H1, of course it is. However, everything is not so impressive on the daily timeframe: the pair has just returned to the consolidation line (or Pivot Point), along which it has been moving for 11 weeks already, starting from the end of November 2018.
The reason for the growth was an interview fragment published in Tweeter of one of the four SEC commissioners, Robert Jackson, who said that the US Securities and Exchange Commission may still allow the launch of Bitcoin-ETF funds.
Following Bitcoin (BTC/USD), the rest of the top cryptocurrencies went up. The greatest growth was demonstrated by Litecoin (LTC/USD), adding at its maximum 40% and reaching the price of $46.0 0. Ethereum rose to the level of $124.70, and Ripple (XRP/USD) reached a height of $0.3250.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. It is clear that after the week-long rally to the south, most of the indicators are colored red. However, already 25% of oscillators on both H4 and D1 give signals the pair being oversold, which means at least an upcoming strong correction, if not a complete reversal of the trend.
A graphical analysis for the next five days draws lateral movement in the range of 1.1285-1.1400, after which the pair should return to the upper boundary of the medium-term channel in the 1.1500 zone by the end of the month.
The expert community has not yet decided: 50% expect the pair to fall, 50% see its growth, which is due to the lack of any clarity both on Brexit and on the US-China negotiations. In addition, the events of the coming week can make their own adjustments. here we should bear in mind the publication of data on GDP of Germany and the EU on Thursday, February 14, as well as on inflation and retail sales in the US on February 13 and 14.
Also, on Tuesday, February 12, the market will look for signals from the head of the Federal Reserve J. Powell regarding a possible increase in interest rates. Meanwhile the level of recession expectations in the United States has risen to 20%, and it is possible that the issue of interest rates will be postponed until better times. EU and UK regulators are also constantly talking about the risks to economic growth, which should entail easing monetary policy.
According to many experts, this gives reason to think about buying stocks on the stock market, because slowing economic growth while maintaining cheap money can lead to an increase in their prices. Here it makes sense to pay attention to portfolio investments in shares of the most reliable and promising global companies that are offered to their clients by the brokerage company NordFX;

- GBP/USD. On Monday, February 11, data on GDP will be published, and on Wednesday, February 13, there will be data on inflation in the UK. Most likely, they will indicate a slowdown in the growth of the country's economy, as already mentioned above. Thus, according to forecasts, GDP growth will decline compared with the previous quarter from 0.6% to 0.2%. But, like many months in a row, news and rumors about Brexit will have a major impact on quotes.
There is another category of rumors, that some international companies are buying the British currency, which Bloomberg hinted at carefully, and this gives the pound some support.
At the moment, 60% of analysts have voted for the pound strengthening and rising of the pair to the horizon of 1.3040, and then another 80-100 points higher. The remaining 40% of experts, on the contrary, expect the pair to drop to at least the level of 1.2830. But the graphical analysis on H4 has taken a compromise position, indicating that the pair can first decline to the level of 1.2830, and only then go to growth, reaching the height of 1.3040;

- USD/JPY. The prevailing color is gray, that is, neutral, both with experts and indicators. The strengthening of the US dollar against major world currencies is on one side of the scale. On the other, there are increased risks of a slowdown in the global economy and another round of tension between the United States and China, which entails an increase in demand for a safe haven currency such as the Japanese yen. The pair managed to keep in a very narrow range of 109.55-110.15 for the whole week, which indicates the complete uncertainty of the market and does not allow to make any predictions for the moment;

- Cryptocurrencies. The full interview by SEC Commissioner Robert Jackson will be released this week and its content may both push the quotes further up or have the opposite effect. After all, whatever you say, but the Securities and Exchange Commission has almost 240 days to make a final decision on the application to launch Bitcoin-ETF, and during this time a lot can change.
In the meantime, experts call its movement in the $3,250-3,800 range as the main scenario for the BTC/USD. However, they do not exclude the short-term breakdown of the upper limit and the rise of the pair to the level of $4,000.

Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

 

[Stan NordFX]

NordFX Offers CFD Trading Tools to Its Clients​

We are glad to inform you that, starting from February 12, 2019, UKOIL.c (Crude Oil Brent CFD-contracts) and five CFD-indices have been added to the list of available trading instruments, including:
- DJ30.c (Dow Jones 30, a stock index covering 30 major US corporations),
- US500.c (S&P 500, a stock index which includes 500 selected US joint stock companies with the largest capitalization),
- DE30.c (DAX, Germany 30 Cash index, an index that includes the 30 major German companies whose shares are traded on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange),
- USTEC.c (NAS100 - NASDAQ-100, a US stock index. The index includes 100 largest companies in terms of capitalization, whose shares are traded on the NASDAQ exchange. The index does not include financial sector companies),
- JP225.c (JP225.c - Nikkei 225, an index representing the average value of the stock price of 225 companies traded on the Tokyo Stock Exchange),

Trading with CFD instruments (contracts for difference Contract for Difference) is available on Fix, Pro and Zero accounts. You can find more detailed information on the contract terms for these instruments in the specifications of these accounts, CFD Specification tab.


#nordfx #cryptocurrency #forex #exchange #broker #funds #CFD

https://nordfx.com/

 

[Stan NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for February 18 - 22, 2019​

First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. Recall that the expert community was not able to form a more or less definite opinion on the movement of this pair last week. This was due to the lack of clarity on both Brexit and the US-China negotiations. In addition, analysts were waiting for the release of data on GDP in Germany and the EU, as well as inflation and retail sales in the US. And if Europe showed an expected growth of 1.2%, and Germany rose by 0.2% (from -0.2% to 0.0%), the data from the USA caused a strong alarm in the market. Retail sales fell by 1.2%, the maximum value in 10 years. As a result, the dollar index suspended growth and moved away from two-month highs.
The dollar has also stopped growing to the European currency. However, if we sum up the results of the whole five-day week, the victory nevertheless remained with the “American”: having started from the level of 1.1320, the pair finished the week at the level of 1.1295;

- GBP/USD. Pound is falling for the third week in a row. The problems associated with Brexit have been supplemented by poor macroeconomic indicators indicating a slowdown in the country's economy: the GDP growth has declined compared to the previous quarter from 0.6% to 0.2%, and the consumer price index fell by 0.3%. As a result, the pair recorded a weekly minimum at 1.2770 on Thursday.
Then the statistics on the US economy came out and turned the trend from south to north. As a result, the British pound was able to win back 115 points from the dollar and complete the week at 1.2885;

- USD/JPY. The Japanese currency was losing ground throughout the first half of the week, reaching the value of 111.12 yen per dollar. But then, against the background of the fall in the stock market due to the weak economic data from the United States and the US-China talks that once again reached a deadlock, the pair made a sharp reversal. Increased appetites for risk-free investments allowed the quotes to lower to the level of 110.25, after which a correction followed, and the pair froze at 110.45;

- Cryptocurrencies. Last week, answering the question of whether the Bitcoin jerk to the height of $3,800 could be considered a harbinger of a storm, we noticed that the pair had just returned to the consolidation line (or Pivot Point), along which it has been moving for 11 weeks, beginning in late November 2018. And we were right: the consolidation continued, and the pair kept in a very narrow side corridor of $3,630-3,750 for the whole, already the 12th, week.
The total capitalization of the crypto market has also remained almost unchanged. If it was at the level of $121.78 billion on Friday, February 9, after seven days it was equal to $120.16 billion. As for the top altcoins, in contrast to the reference cryptocurrency, they showed a somewhat greater volatility. So, for example, the fluctuations range of Litecoin (LTC/USD) was about 15%, and of Ripple (XRP/USD) - about 7%.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Not the rosiest economic situation in Europe is on one side of the scale, on the other is the collapse of stock indices and trade wars in the United States. JP Morgan and Macroeconomic Advisers lower their forecasts for the US GDP growth. And BofA Merrill Lynch and Bloomberg raise their forecasts for the Eurozone. In their opinion, the zero growth of Germany’s GDP is a temporary factor, and in the case of the soft Brexit and improvements in the Chinese economy, Germany, together with the rest of Europe, will turn to sustainable economic growth. All this, together with the desire of the Fed to take a pause in monetary tightening, gives the market a reason to believe that the measures of the regulator are late, the recession in the US is not far off, and the balance will swing to Europe. In this case, the pressure on the dollar will increase. But this is for the future.
In the meantime, 70% of experts, supported by indicators on D1, expect the dollar to strengthen and the EUR/USD downtrend line to continue. The immediate goal is 1.1200. The following support is located in the zone 1.1085-1.1115.
The opposite opinion is held by 30% of analysts and graphical analysis on D1, who believe that problems in the US economy will force the dollar to lose ground in the near future. In this case, the pair will return to the limits of the medium-term corridor 1.1300-1.1500 and rush first to its central and then to the upper border;

- GBP/USD. The forecast for this pair for the coming week is similar to the forecast for the pair EUR/USD. Here, also, 70% of experts, along with 90% of oscillators and trend indicators on D1, expect the pair to fall, and 30%, along with graphical analysis, show its growth. The inevitably approaching hour of divorce from the EU under still incomprehensible conditions, sides with the former. The latter have those problems of the United States, about which much has already been said above, on their side. Support levels are 1.2830, 1.2715, 1.2655, resistances are 1.2925, 1.3000 and 1.3065;

- USD/JPY. If the US dollar feels good enough against the euro and the pound, this cannot be said about the confrontation with the yen. The positive dynamics of the Japanese currency as a safe haven may continue with a further deterioration in the global economic outlook and a decrease in risk appetites.
Experts' opinions have divided in half regarding the nearest future of the pair, but in the transition to the monthly forecast, 65% of analysts vote for the strengthening of the yen. The support levels for the pair are 110.00, 109.60, 109.10, 108.50. The resistance levels are 110.65, 111. 25, 112.30, 113.70;

- Cryptocurrencies. As analysts say, there are no fundamental factors explaining the Bitcoin jump to the height of $3,800. So, most likely, this upward impulse will not develop further. 65% of experts believe the most likely movement of the BTC/USD pair is in the range of 3,500-3,300 with a gradual decrease to the level of $3,000. The remaining 35% of analysts have an opposite point of view, expecting the pair to be able, at least for a while, to rise to the level of $4,000.



Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

 

[Stan NordFX]

NordFX Scores a Hat Trick at the Forex Awards Ratings​

Hat trick is the achievement of a positive feat three times in a game. Using sports terminology, it is possible to call "hat trick" the success of the brokerage company NordFX, awarded as much as three honorary awards of the Forex Awards Ratings by the results of the past year:
- Best Social Trading Network - 2018,
- Best Affiliate Program - 2018,
- Best Forex Broker Asia - 2018.

For nine years now, starting in 2010, the Forex Awards has been evaluating the best achievements in the Forex industry and celebrates the most outstanding decisions, innovations and results in almost 30 special nominations. The award expert committee identifies and brings to the attention of the financial community the suppliers of the highest quality world-class brokerage services, thereby contributing to higher industry standards and transparency.

This time, experts have noted the success of NordFX in launching the most up-to-date RAMM trading and investment platform with risk control, major improvements in the terms of a two-tier affiliate program, and the company's efforts to promote its services in the Asian region.

It should be noted that the past year was the most productive in the activities of NordFX , which could not be overlooked by the professional community. As a result, in 2018, the company was awarded the maximum number of prestigious awards and prizes in its history, including Global Brands Awards, International Business Magazine Awards, Fxdailyinfo, Masterforex-V Academy and International Association of Forex Traders IAFT.


#nordfx #cryptocurrency #forex #stock exchange #funds #investments #CFD

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[Stan NordFX]

NordFX Presents Its New FinTech Developments in Thailand​

The brokerage company NordFX traditionally took part at the specialized Forex expo, Traders' Fair-2019, which was held in mid-February in the capital and the largest city of Thailand, Bangkok.

In addition to the already well-known in the Asian market and well-established services for online currency trading in the Forex market, this time NordFX experts presented a whole line of the company's new products that were introduced in the second half of 2018. Among them:
- the latest RAMM trading and investment platform with automatic risk control,
- professional exchange trading in cryptocurrencies and crypto indexes based on the MetaTrader 4 and 5 platforms,
- CFD trading instruments, including oil contracts and major global stock indices, such as Dow Jones 30, S&P 500, DAX, NASDAQ-100 and Nikkei 225,
- as well as portfolio and point investments in stocks of most reliable and promising global brands, including Apple, Microsoft, Alibaba, Amazon, MasterCard, Visa, Google, Facebook, PayPal, Boeing, Coca-Cola, McDonald's and many others, providing, along with high income, the possibility of 100% protection of investors' capital.

“This year, about 2,000 people visited the Traders' Fair,” says NordFX Head of Thailand Mr.Chai, "which provided excellent opportunities for communication with both our clients and traders who are just about to open a trading account with us. It is especially important that we not only told them about our new products, but also were able to listen to their wishes, thereby defining directions for the further development of our company.
We were also able to strengthen the existing partnerships and establish new ones, which is a very important factor for the promotion of NordFX services not only in Thailand, but throughout the entire Southeast Asia region.
I would like to thank everyone who has already chosen or is going to choose NordFX as their broker. I am sure you will not be disappointed in your decision. And we will do our best to meet your expectations not by 100, but by 150 or even 200 percent!”


#nordfx #cryptocurrency #forex #stock exchange #funds #investments #CFD

https://nordfx.com

 

[Stan NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for February 25 - March 01, 2019​

First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. For almost the entire week, the pair stayed where it had been repeatedly a week, a month, and two or three months ago. Apart from the rare short-term breakthroughs, the pair cannot break out of the medium-term corridor 1.1300-1.1500. If we expand this channel to extremum points, it will be slightly wider: 1.1215-1.1570.
This was due to the lack of clarity both on Brexit and on the US-China negotiations. One can add to this, on the one hand, the desire of the Fed to curb the growth of interest rates, and on the other, weak statistics on the economy of Germany and the Eurozone. As soon as the dollar begins to grow, rumors from the ECB about the possibility of launching an anti-crisis LTRO (Long Term Refinancing Operation) or articles by venerable analysts saying that the US currency is overbought, appear, and the trend is again turning in favor of the euro. As a result, the dollar was unable to break through the lower boundary of the channel last week and ended the session at 1.1335;

- GBP/USD. Despite the incessant talk about the possibility of the chaotic Brexit, the pound showed an impressive growth on Tuesday, February 19. Even Fitch’s warning about the possibility of lowering the UK credit rating did not scare the bulls. Having stepped over the psychological level of 1.3000, the pound rose another 100 points higher, followed by a rebound, and the pair continued to move along the 1.3000 horizon, stopping at 1.3050 at midnight Friday;

- USD/JPY. During the week, experts were discussing how the decline of the SP500 index, with which the pair is correlated, would affect the behavior of the Japanese currency. How will the completion of the next stage of the US-China talks affect it? Will the pair get a support from the increase in the yield of 10-year US and Japanese government bonds?
Looking at the USD/JPY chart, one can see how sluggish the market reacted to the change in all these factors. With some dominance of bullish sentiment, the pair kept within the extremely narrow side channel 110.45-110.95, returning to its central zone, the level of 110.66 by the end of the week;

- Cryptocurrencies. The market stayed impressed during the past 7 days by the news that JPMorgan, the first of the US banks, created and successfully tested its own digital coin, JPM Coin, which it plans to use in mutual settlements with major financial institutions. And even despite the fact that, JPM Coin is in fact a competitor to the reference cryptocurrency, Bitcoin quotes went up. DataLight analysts concluded that as the price of Bitcoin increased, the number of transactions increased as well, reaching the values of April 2018.
However, this positive attitude does not mean a radical reversal of the trend and the beginning of a steady growth in the crypto market. Yes, indeed, its volumes since last Friday first grew by about 10%. But after the BTC reached the level of $4,000, many players on growth decided to take profits, which led to a decrease in capitalization by 2%. Therefore, the scenario of the BTC/USD pair consolidating at the horizon of $3,700 cannot be excluded from consideration.
It should be noted that the share of Bitcoin as a “heavyweight” on the market now amounts to more than 58%. As for the top altcoins, since May 2018, their "piece of cake" is continuously decreasing. Thus, the share of Ripple ( XRP/USD) today is 11.52%, Ethereum (ETH/USD) - 9%, and Litecoin (LTC/USD) - just 1.51%. But it is this “lightness” that allows them to demonstrate greater dynamics. Thus, the amplitude within the weekly fluctuations of the Ripple was 25%, and of Ethereum - 22%, which, of course, is very attractive for traders.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The upcoming week is filled with both issuing of important macroeconomic data, and equally important speeches by politicians and key figures of the world economy. Thus, the market is waiting for the Head of FED Jerome Powell to speak in the US Congress on Tuesday February 26. And if he makes it clear that the Fed is not going to hurry with the rate hike, this can create quite a lot of pressure on the US currency.
However, only 30% of analysts expect that such a “dovish” attitude will lead to the growth of the pair to the Pivot Point of the medium-term channel in the 1.1400 zone and its further advance to the upper boundary of the 1.1500 channel. Most experts (70%) have taken the opposite position, believing that the weakening of the European economy and chaos with Brexit will tilt the balance in favor of the dollar, and the pair will return to the lows of recent months in the 1.1215-1.1240 area;

- GBP/USD. The key events that will determine the trend of the coming week will be the speech of the British Prime Minister Theresa May on Monday, February 26, and the vote of the Parliament of this country to review the deal with the EU on Tuesday. If Mrs. May’s proposals are rejected again, she will have a choice: either exit without a deal, or postponement of the Brexit. Judging by the mood of the market, most investors tend to the second option (or just want to believe in it). Whatever it may be, 40% of the experts believe that the pound will hold out at current levels near 1.3000 and 35% even predict his further growth to the height of 1.3200. Only 25% of analysts voted for the fall of the pair to the zone of 1.2770-1.2830.
Additional support for the pound may be rendered by a rise in prices for the "black gold", since the pound is directly correlated with oil prices.

- USD/JPY. The Japanese currency has frozen in anticipation of further developments. The worsening macroeconomic statistics of the United States, Germany, which has barely avoided a recession, Trump’s trade war with Europe and China, China’s slowest GDP growth over the past three decades — all these factors make investors pessimistic about the prospects for the global economy. It would seem that in such a situation, interest in the yen should grow as a safe haven currency. But instead, their appetites for risky, but more profitable assets are growing. Thus, according to the EPFR data, the net capital inflow to the countries with developing economies through ETF exchange funds has amounted to 16 billion US dollars from the beginning of the year.
In such a situation, in full agreement with most indicators and graphical analysis on D1, 70% of experts vote for a further fall of the yen and the rise of the pair to the height of 111.50 and then 100 points higher. An alternative point of view is expressed by 30% of analysts, who believe that the pair should go down to the zone of 109.60-110.00;

- Cryptocurrencies. After JPMorgan has launched JPM Coin, the crypto community expects similar steps from Facebook, Amazon and other major global corporations. But this is all in a hazy future. In the meantime, regulators such as the SEC and CFTC must make a lot of steps, including unpopular ones, to bring order to this market.
Regarding the trends of the upcoming week, the opinions of experts were as follows. 40% are for the continuation of the Bitcoin growth to the $4,200-4,400 zone, a jerk to the maximum of November 2018 is not excluded. at the height of $4,485. 35% suggest sideways movement of the pair in the $3,900-4,100 channel, while the remaining 25% expect the BTC/USD pair to return to the $3,500-3,800 zone.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/