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[Stan NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 26-30, 2018​

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. If you look at the chart of the pair, it is clear that by the evening of Friday, November 23, it returned to the values of Friday morning, November 16. That is, the result of the week is close to zero, and the victory for the most accurate forecast can be awarded to trend indicators and oscillators on D1, which had taken a neutral position.
As for the experts, a third of them had predicted the continuation of the pair’s correction up to the level of 1.1450-1.1550 (actual maximum of the week is 1.1470), with the subsequent return of the dollar to growth. This actually did happen, as a result, the pair ended the week at 1.1330;

- GBP/USD. The result of last week for this pair is similar to the result of EUR/USD, that is, close to zero. On Thursday, when it became known that the European Commission had approved the political declaration on Brexit, it seemed that the pound had a chance to reverse the negative situation. It soared 150 points to the height of 1.2925. But the joy of the British currency holders was short-lived, and the pair met the end of the five-day period in the 1.2810 zone;

- USD/JPY. Regarding the future of this pair, the opinions of experts had been divided almost equally: 45% had voted for the pair to fall, 45% had voted for its growth, and 10% had taken a neutral position. And they all turned out to be right: the pair was falling in the first half of the week, then it was growing, and it showed a zero result by the end of the session, returning to Pivot Point in the 112.90 zone. As for the support/resistance levels, graphical analysis was most accurate here: it marked the upper limit of the channel at 113.10 on H4 (the pair rose to 113.14), and a fall to 112.65 on D1 (the weekly minimum was fixed at 112.30);

- As for cryptocurrencies, there were two versions of the forecast, a neutral one and ... a very bad one. Naturally, the second one came true. Panic moods from the hard forks (division) of BCH (Bitcoin Cash) to two new coins continued to put pressure on the market. As a result, the bitcoin flew further down, reaching the values of September last year in the $4,210-4,250 zone, and pulled other cryptocurrencies with it: the TOP-5 index lost more than 500 points, or about 25% during the week.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The most important event that can seriously affect the quotes of both the euro, and the British pound, will be the extraordinary Summit of European leaders on Brexit, which will be held November 25-26. In case its results are positive, the pair may return to November highs of 1.1470 and 1.1500. However, less than half of the experts agree with this scenario, 40%.
As for the remaining 60%, they continue to insist the dollar will strengthen. On Wednesday, November 28, the market is expecting data on the US GDP for the 3rd quarter, and if they turn out to be better than in the 2nd quarter, this will give the American currency a strong support. You should also pay attention to the minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting on Thursday, November 29, although no special surprises are expected from it.
The targets for the bears are 1.1300 and the 2018 low of 1.1215, in the case of a breakdown of which the path to support 1.1120 is opened.
If we talk about indicators, about 15% of the oscillators on H4 indicate that the pair is oversold, which may portend a short-term correction;

- GBP/USD. Almost 100% of the indicators are painted red. But future trends are not determined by them at all. The decisions of the EU Brexit Summit are, of course, very important for the pound. But it faces an even more serious test: the deal on the terms for the British exit from the European Union has yet to be approved by the British Parliament. And there are many chances that the parliamentarians will vote against the deal. In this case, a second vote will be required, which may be scheduled for February, and up to this point investors will be wary of the pound.
In the meantime, expert opinions are equally divided: half of them are for the growth of the pair, half are for its fall. The nearest support levels are 1.2720 1.2695, 1.2660, the resistance levels are 1.2885, 1.2925 and 1.3025;

- USD/JPY. The Japanese currency often goes counter-trend to its European counterparts: when the euro and the pound fall against the dollar, the yen rises. It is this perspective that is drawn by analysts for the next week. 55% of them, supported by 90% of oscillators and 70% of trend indicators, vote for the fall of the pair first to support 112.60, and then 30 points lower. It is possible that the pair will be able to successfully test the level of 112.00.
The alternative scenario is supported by 45% of experts, graphical analysis on D1 and 10% of oscillators, signaling the pair is oversold. The targets of the bulls are zones 113.15-113.40 and 114.20-114.55.

- Cryptocurrencies. Most likely, the negative trend in the market will continue, and the bitcoin will try to break through the level of $4,000. The next target is 1,000 points lower. Another vulnerability was found in smart contracts based on ethereum, and the ETH/USD pair may fall to the most important psychological level of $100. The target for the litecoin (LTC/USD) is to consolidate below $30, and for the ripple (XRP/USD) - below $0.40.
As for the good news for crypto bulls, there is divergence between the quotes of Bitcoin and the readings of many oscillators, which indicates a possible upward correction. However, according to most experts, this correction will be short-term.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

 

[Stan NordFX]

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More information about the investment offers of NordFX can be found at https://nordfx.com/funds/ or by contacting the company's Support Service.

 

[Stan NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for December 03-07, 2018​

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. The first good news that pushed the euro up, as expected, was the extraordinary Summit of European leaders on Brexit. Its positive results allowed the European currency to rise to the level of 1.1383 on Monday, November 26, after which the power over the market was seized by the dollar once again.
By Wednesday, the pair began to approach the 2018 low and fell to the level of 1.1255, but then the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell, speaking at the New York Economic Club, suddenly declared that the interest rates on the dollar were only slightly below the neutral level!
Back in October, the same person had said that the rate was far enough from this level, and a month later, it was almost at the “zero” level, at which the economy neither accelerates nor slows down. Such a speech alerted the market a little, as a result of which the Euro-bulls were able to push the pair up again: this time to the height of 1.1400. But then not so much positive statistics on the Eurozone economy were published, and the pair went down again. As a result, the total of the week can be characterized by the short word “zero”: the pair completed it almost in the same place where it started;

- GBP/USD. The intra weekly trends of this pair are similar to those demonstrated by the EUR/USD pair. But the distrust in the pound, caused by the fears that the British Parliament may not approve the agreement on Brexit, played a role. As a result, the finish of the pair was slightly lower than the start level and, if at the beginning of the week the pound was at around 1.2810, it finished the week at the level of 1.2750;

- USD/JPY. Regarding the future of this pair, the opinions of experts were almost equally divided. A small margin (55%) was on the side of the bears, but when summing up the week it becomes obvious that the bulls won a victory, albeit a very small one. The pair was able to rise by about 60 points during the week, having frozen at around 113.50;

- Cryptocurrencies. The forecast for this market was negative, and it was 100% justified: over 80% of all coins, followed the bitcoin, having gone into a deep minus. The intrigue was only in how low the reference cryptocurrency would be able to fall together with other coins during that week.
Our forecast said that the BTC/USD pair was likely to break through the level of $4,000. And it indeed dropped to $3,660, returning to $4,000 on Friday. Ethereum (ETH/USD) was seen at the horizon $102.6. The litecoin (LTC/USD) fell to $24.2 at some exchanges, and the ripple (XRP/USD) below $0.33.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. If you look at the graph, it is clear that in November the pair drew a “pennant” striving to consolidate around 1.1315-1.1350. As for its further movement, most experts (60%) and more than 90% of the indicators on H4 on D1 expect further strengthening of the dollar and new testing of the 2018 low, 1.1215.
In addition to the results of the G20 summit, the next statements of the Federal Reserve Head J. Powell on Wednesday, December 05 and Friday, December 7, as well as the publication of regular data on the US labor market at the very end of the week may affect the formation of trends. According to forecasts, NFP may fall by 15-20% compared to the previous value, which may somewhat weaken the US currency. And here it should be noted that in the monthly forecast, 60% of analysts are already siding with the bulls, waiting for the pair to return to the zone 1.1400-1.1500;

- GBP/USD. The pair is near the year lows zone at the moment, 1.2670-1.2695, and graphical analysis on H4, supported by more than 90% of trend indicators and oscillators, predicts their breakdown and a quick fall to the 1.2600-1.2620 zone.
But the experts' opinion is not at all as clear: it is only 55% who side with the bears. And 45% are confident that the pair will not be able to renew the lows, and it will go north towards the height of 1.2900;

- USD/JPY. Although we would like to give a clear forecast, there are no pronounced preferences among experts for the Japanese currency either: exactly half of them have voted for the pair's growth, and exactly half are for its fall. Everyone is waiting for the results of the G20, and here the forecasts are also quite ambiguous.
The indicators also behave accordingly, although most of them are colored green. As for the graphical analysis, it envisages first the growth of the pair to the level of 114.20-114.40, and then its fall, first to the support of 113.00, and then to 111.75.
In a situation of such uncertainty, it is always useful to refer to a longer-term forecast. And here, 65% of analysts, following the graphical analysis, expect the yen to strengthen and the pair to fall to 112.00;

- Cryptocurrencies. The situation with forecasts for cryptocurrencies is complicated by the fact that it is almost impossible to estimate their real value. They are so virtual that estimates can be differ tens, hundreds or even thousands of times. It is not particularly worth it to focus on the miners' costs either, as they do not do any useful work and do not produce any material values or benefits. They only spend their time, money and electricity.
Experts' forecasts look as follows at the moment: 60% expect the bitcoin to continue falling to $3,000, 30% hope that it will stay in the $4,000-4,500 range, and 10% of super optimists convince the rest that these are all the machinations of major players who, having bought cheap coins, will soon begin to push the market up.
However, optimism is quickly melting, if you listen to the words of the Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huan. The head of the largest manufacturer of processors for mining has admitted that they had misjudged the prospects of the crypto market, and now his company is betting on the GPU for computing using artificial intelligence and use in unmanned vehicles.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

 

[Stan NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for December 10-14, 2018​

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. Our forecast for relatively weak labor market data turned out to be 100% correct. ADP and ISM in the service sector were not pleasing either, and one of the key indicators, NonFarm Payrolls, fell from 237K to 155K, that is, by as much as 35%.
The forecast regarding consolidation of the pair in the area of 1.1350 turned out to be correct as well: last week it switched to lateral movement in channel 1.1310-1.1415 with Pivot Point in the area 1.1350-1.1360.
The difference between the weekly high and low barely exceeded 100 points, although it seemed that there were quite a lot of important events during these days. These are the above-mentioned statistics on the US labor market, supplemented by a decrease in the country's GDP, and the OPEC meeting and Iran’s petroleum statement, and the arrest by the US law enforcement agencies of the financial director of Huawei Meng Wanzhou... But the pair reacted quite calmly to all this. The reason for this seems to be only one: the approach of Christmas, the time when the sharks of the market sum up their annual results and no longer want to make any sudden movements;

- GBP/USD. This pair also behaved quite calmly, although with a slightly higher volatility: the swing of oscillations was about 180 points. The expected fall to 1.2600-1.2620 did not take place, and the pair, barely reaching 1.2655, turned around and left for Pivot Point of the week, ending the five-day period at 1.2725;

- USD/JPY. Last week, expert opinions were equally divided: one half voted for the pair’s growth, the second one was for its fall. In this situation, we advised to move from weekly to longer-term forecast, and we were right. Here, the picture was already different: most analysts (65%), supported by graphical analysis, expected the yen to strengthen and the pair to decline to the 112.00 zone. This was what happened: having won back the losses of the previous two weeks, it reached the level of 112.20. The pair met the end of the trading session at the level of 112. 70, that is, in the same place where it was already trading in the middle of November;

- Cryptocurrencies. There’s really nothing to say: the graphs vividly confirm that the worst predictions are coming true. 60% of experts predicted a further drop in Bitcoin, and on Friday evening, it recorded another annual low at around $3,275, having lost another 16% in seven days. Following the “reference” (now in quotes) cryptocurrency, the altcoins fell further down. Ethereum (ETH/USD) fell by 24% during the week, Litecoin (LTC/USD) - by 26%, and Ripple (XRP / USD) - by 18%.
According to Ernst & Young, 86% of all coins are now trading significantly lower than the originally declared value, and the crypto market capitalization fell to $113 billion, having lost exactly 700 billion in 11 months (86%).


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. As has already been mentioned, it is time for the market to record annual profits. Or losses (it depends). However, the coming week is expected to see a number of macroeconomic data, which may still affect the change in quotations.
Thus, on Wednesday, December 12, there will be data on inflation in the United States, and the higher it turns out, the higher the likelihood of interest rate increases, the better the dollar will feel. In the meantime, judging by the futures, players and investors do not particularly expect that the Fed will raise rates in March next year.
On Thursday, December 13, a decision is expected on the interest rate in the Eurozone. Most likely, nothing will change, and the rate will remain at zero, so more attention should be paid to the subsequent press conference of the ECB President Mario Draghi.
On Friday, we expect statistics on retail sales in the United States. And, of course, the market will closely watch the reports from the theater of operations of the American-Chinese trade war throughout the whole week. Another aggravation in this conflict was caused by the arrest of Huawei's CFO, and everyone is waiting to see what President Trump does in this situation.
In the meantime, the overwhelming majority of experts and indicators have taken a neutral position. The bulls have a very small advantage, calling the area 1.1500-1.1550 as their target. Supports are at levels 1.1265 and 1.1215. The basic forecast almost repeats the scenario of the past week: the movement in channel 1.1310-1.1415;

- GBP/USD. Here, analysts' forecast is similar to what has been given for EUR/USD: the advantage of the bulls is only 5%. But almost 90% of trend indicators and 70% of oscillators are colored red. The formation of trends may be affected by the data on the UK GDP, which will be released on Monday December 10, and the data on average wages on Tuesday December 11. But of interest is the vote on Brexit in the British Parliament, which will take place at the same time, on Tuesday. Recall that, according to forecasts, the parliamentarians may not approve the Agreement on the terms for leaving the EU, and then a second vote will be scheduled for February 2019, which will play against the pound. The support levels are 1.2660, 1.2540 and 1.2500, the resistance levels are 1.2810, 1.2850, 1.29250;

- USD/JPY. On Monday, December 10, statistics on Japan’s GDP will be published and, strictly speaking, these are the only data from the country of the Rising Sun that may affect the pair’s quotes. Investors pay much more attention to the trade war between China and the United States and the use of the yen as a safe haven currency. That is why most experts (65%), with the support of trend indicators, vote for the strengthening of the Japanese currency and the reduction of the pair to at least 112.20 support. The next support is on horizon 111.75, then 110.85. As for the resistances, they are in the zones 113.20, 113.65 and 114.00.
Graphical analysis also indicates a fall of the pair. However, on H4 it assumes that at first it will rise to the height of 113.10, only then it will turn to the south.

- Cryptocurrencies. The states increasingly clamp the market which had initially been decentralized, in the grip of regulation, which creates an additional negative news background. This is what the crypto community is expecting soon:
In South Korea, a tax on income from operations with cryptocurrency is planned to be introduced; in Japan, in addition to the state registration of all ICOs, crypto exchanges will be obliged, upon request of the tax authorities, to disclose information on customer incomes; in Singapore, all ICO market participants must now obtain a license and take measures to combat money laundering; Switzerland is also planning a number of legislative amendments. And so on.
It is highly likely that, recognizing the benefits and possibilities of blockchain, many states intend to put an end to the current crypto freedom and begin to issue their own digital money (which Honduras and Iran have already taken up). But this is not a one-day deal.
In the meantime, analysts' opinions are distributed as follows: 65% expect a further fall to $2,500-3,000, 25% have voted for the side trend along the $3,000 horizon and 10%, as before, remain optimistic, expecting Bitcoin to return to the levels of $4,000-5,000 in the medium term.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

 

[Stan NordFX]

At Traders Fair-2018, NordFX Presents the Latest Developments for Working in Forex, Crypto and Stock Markets​

At the end of November 2018, a specialized Forex exhibition organized by FinExpo was held in the largest city of Vietnam, Ho Chi Minh City. It gathered more than a thousand guests and participants. NordFX took part in this large-scale event, presenting at its booth a wide range of products for both traders and investors.

In addition to traditional services for trading on the Forex market, NordFX specialists presented the latest developments for professional exchange trading in cryptocurrencies and crypto indexes using the MetaTrader 4 and 5 platforms, as well as ample opportunities to invest in the company's specialized Investment Funds.
Three of these funds include shares of world industry leaders, including Amazon, Nike, Boeing, Coca-Cola, McDonald's, Apple, Microsoft, Intel, MasterCard, Visa, Google, Facebook and many others. In addition to highest reliability and growth prospects, these funds have a low entry threshold, which allows NordFX clients, having even small amounts, to take full advantage of portfolio investments and professional asset management.

In order to familiarize Vietnamese traders with the company's products in more detail, a seminar was held after the expo, where a lot of attention was paid to the RAMM – service, a unique trading signal copying platform that allows you to automatically control the level of acceptable risk.

In addition to these events, a number of meetings were held in Ho Chi Minh City with current and potential IB-partners of NordFX, whose participants were able to get acquainted with the benefits of a two-tier affiliate program, as well as discuss ways to further develop the company.

#nordfx #cryptocurrency #ramm #exchange #broker #funds

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[Stan NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for December 17-21, 2018​

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. If the basic forecast for the past week had assumed a lateral movement in channel 1.1310-1.1415, the meeting of the European Central Bank and the subsequent conference of the ECB President Mario Draghi were called as the basic event. The ECB made a long-promised decision on January 1, 2019 to complete the quantitative easing program, and Draghi demotivated investors with a statement of increased risks. Based on this, the forecasts of the region’s economic growth for 2018-19 were lowered, to which the euro responded with a fall, but still remained within the limits of the stated channel.
The key support 1.1300 was broken already on Friday, December 14, when the Bundesbank lowered its forecasts for Germany's GDP and inflation. The regulator now expects that the growth of the economy in the outgoing year will not be 2.0%, as previously assumed, but only 1.5%. As for the 2019, the forecast here was lowered from 1.9% to 1.6%. The gloomy business performance indicators finally disappointed the market, and the pair went down sharply, reaching the local bottom at 1.1270. After that, a small rebound followed, returning it to the level of 1.1300, which turned from support to resistance;

- GBP/USD. Pound is still ruled by Brexit. As expected, the vote in the British Parliament on the terms of a divorce from the EU didn't have a result. It was just canceled. As a result, by Wednesday, December 12, the pair dropped to the level of 1.2474, having lost 285 points compared to the beginning of the week. As for the end of the five-day week, it found itself near the mark of 1.25 85;

- USD/JPY. Last week, 45% of experts voted for the pair's growth, and 113.20, 113.65 and 114.00 were indicated as resistance levels. The truth, as often happens, was in the middle, and the weekly high was noted at the height of 113.70. The final chord of the week sounded at the level of 113.35;

- Cryptocurrencies. The news background in recent days has been quite blurred, and positive news alternated with negative news. Among the events that are encouraging are the possible release of the Japanese crypto exchange Coincheck to the US market, the record for Bitcoin analogue ETF demand in Switzerland, and the news that the embedded Ethereum wallet will appear in the Opera browser. A balance to these was the news that for the first time in history, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the United States fined the cryptocurrency bank AriseBank because of fraud allegations. The bulls were also frustrated by the news that due to the unfavorable situation in the cryptocurrency market, the mining giant Bitmain is closing its unit in Israel.
Against such a background, Bitcoin was growing and falling, and as a result, on the evening of Friday, December 14, it turned out to be where it had been a week ago, and even updated the low of the entire 2018, falling to the level of $3.225.
As for the basic altcoins, such as Ethereum (ETH / USD), Litecoin (LTC / USD) and Ripple (XRP / USD), they obediently repeated the movements of the reference cryptocurrency all week.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The color here is red. It is almost an unprecedented case: 100% of the oscillators and 100% of the indicators on H4 and D1 are painted exactly in this color. 70% of experts also vote for the growth of the dollar and the fall of the pair. The reason for this is interest rates.
The likelihood that the Fed will announce a rate increase from 2.25% to 2.5% on Wednesday December 19 is over 75%. In addition, the market is confidently expecting one or two more increases next year. As for the growth of the euro rates, there is a complete uncertainty here. Draghi promised to keep the rate at zero level until the summer of 2019. But this summer rise is a big question. So, most investors are now looking south, to the zone of the year low, which was recorded on November 12, 1.1215. That it is the main goal for the pair. The nearest support is 1.1265;
The alternative scenario is supported by 30% of analysts and graphical analysis on D1. In the event the developments are according to their scenario, the pair will once again rise above the strong support/resistance level of 1.1300 and can even reach Pivot Point of the three-week side channel of 1.1360. The following targets are 1.1400 and 1.1440;

- GBP/USD. The British currency is facing a lot of events next week. On Wednesday, December 19, a block of inflation data will be published. And even if the inflation grows, the market may consider that such an increase is due to the weakening of the pound because of Brexit. The next day, the Bank of England will announce the interest rate decision, which is likely to remain unchanged, which will also play against the pound. Data on the GDP growth rates on Friday is unlikely to seriously affect the overall dynamics of the British currency. And they are negative.
50% of experts and about 90% of indicators agree with this. According to their forecast, the pair may decline first to the horizon of 1.2475, and then another 75 points lower.
20% of analysts have taken a neutral position, and the remaining 30% have voted for the pair's growth to the zone of 1.2670-1.2700;

- USD/JPY. Regarding the future of this pair, the indicators do not give any clear guidelines: their readings are divided almost equally. The same applies to the expert opinions: 45% of them are for the fall of the pair, 50% are for the continuation of growth and 5% just shake their shoulders. Such uncertainty becomes clear if you look at the pair's chart, which is now located approximately in the middle of the six-week side channel 112.30-114.00.
The meeting of the Bank of Japan is unlikely to affect the quotes of the pair, and the only event that could seriously move it up is the already mentioned decision of the US Federal Reserve on the interest rate. In this case, according to many analysts, the pair can break through the upper boundary of the channel and reach the zone of 114.55-114.75.
The graphical analysis on D1 has taken a sharply opposite position, which predicts the pair to fall to support 112.20 and then to the level 111.75;

- cryptocurrency. 60% of experts expect Bitcoin to continue the downtrend to the strong zone, fixed in July-August 2018, $2,500-2,700. The nearest support is in the $2,940-2.050 zone. In addition to the overall negative dynamics, the experience of the past year also plays in favor of bears, when at the end of December many wallet owners wanted to transfer their crypto savings to fiat currencies.
On the other hand, when analyzing the futures, one can see a slight increase (about 10%) of bullish positions, which gives grounds for 20% of analysts to talk about the pair going to the side trend, and another 20% to be filled with optimism in anticipation of the trend reversal and the rise of the pair to 4,500.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

 

[Stan NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for December 24-28, 2018​

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. Despite the fact that, on the eve of the US Federal Reserve interest rate increase, 70% of experts, supported by 100% indicators, expected the dollar to strengthen, nothing of the kind happened. The euro was growing for the whole week, approaching on Thursday the last eight weeks' high at the height of 1.1485.
At the time the rate increase from 2.25% to 2.5% was announced, the dollar managed to win back a modest 85 points, but this victory turned out to be temporary. At his press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that there would hardly be three rates increases in 2019, and that, in a better case, there would be only two. And according to US Secretary of the Treasury Stephen Mnuchin, if inflation remains low, there may be no rate increases next year. But no one expects unity within the team of President Trump and the Fed, or within the Fed either. In 2019, only two FOMC members see the rate at 2.5%, six at 2.75%, four at 3.25%, three at 3.30%, and two members of the Open Market Operations Committee would like it to be 3.6%!
As for the results of the week, after the release on Friday, December 21, of a whole package of data on the US economy, the pair returned to the central zone of the eight-month side channel and stopped at 1.1370;

- GBP/USD. As expected, neither the economic data published on Wednesday nor the decisions of the Bank of England on Thursday presented any surprises. Back on Tuesday, December 18, the pair moved to lateral movement in channel 1.2605-1.2705, where it remained until the end of the week, having met its finish at 1.2630;

- USD/JPY. Last week, the US dollar dropped significantly, not only against the euro. The DXY U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the US currency against a basket of other major currencies, fell on Thursday to an eight-week low of 95.73. Its fall against the Japanese yen was particularly impressive, the yen won around 260 points against the dollar by Thursday. Experts say that the main reasons for such a jump are sales on the stock markets and the flight of investors to the yen as a safe haven in the face of continuing tensions in trade relations between the United States and China.

- Cryptocurrencies. The past week was marked by a steady growth of both the reference cryptocurrency and all major altcoins. The maximum growth of bitcoin (BTC/USD) was 33%, ethereum (ETH/USD) - 46%, litecoin (LTC/USD) - 45%, ripple (XRP/USD) - 41%. The most impressive increase, by 176%, was demonstrated by the Bitcoin Cash (BCH/USD), reaching $220 per coin at the peak. The total capitalization of the crypto market grew from $103 billion to $134 billion, that is, by 30%.
The reasons are both global, such as falling investors' interest in classic assets on world markets, and private ones, such as news on the closing of the short position, which was opened a year ago by a well-known crypto trader Mark Doe. There may be called a lot of reasons, but the main question that worries the whole crypto community is whether this weekly increase is not a short-term correction. Or is it, which is even worse, another trap, arranged by bears for the bulls?
Whatever it may be, but at the end of the week, Bitcoin buyers met strong resistance at $4,300, resulting in this cryptocurrency's fall to $4,000. And other digital assets slipped a little as well, following it.


As for the forecasts, it should be noted an error is quite often not in defining targets, but in determining the timing of their achievement. This is especially true of the coming days. The past week was the last full trading week in the past year. Next week, trading will begin only on Wednesday, December 26, and the world will celebrate the New Year during the night of Monday, December 31, to Tuesday, January 1. That is why this time we decided to discuss experts' opinions not only for the upcoming week, but also for the next month, which we hope will help traders in more accurate determination of trends and benchmarks.

- EUR/USD. The weekly forecast looks like this: 40% are for the fall of the pair, 30% are for its growth and 30% have taken a neutral position. Forecast for January: 60% are for the fall, 20% are for the lateral trend and only 20% are for the strengthening of the European currency. The main targets for bears are 1.1300, 1.1265, then the December low at 1.1215. In the event of a breakthrough of this support, the pair may sink to the horizon of 1.1120 and even lower, down to the level of 1.0910. The main target for the bulls is the zone 1.1525-1.1625, after reaching which the euro will head for the heights of 1.1730 and 1.1815;

- GBP/USD. Here, experts also expect the dollar to strengthen during the month and, as a result, the pair will fall. For this, 60% have voted. Supports are 1.2605, 1.2525, 1.2475 and 1.2345. Resistances are at 1.2725, 1.2840 1.2925 and 1.3050;

- USD/JPY. According to 55% of analysts (weekly forecast) and 65% (monthly forecast), the pair has already approached its local bottom, and now it is waiting for a rebound upwards. The goals are 112.30, 113.15, 113.70 and 114.20. The number of those who have voted for the side trend in this case is small - about 10%. The rest of the experts have given their preference to the bears, believing that the pair is waiting for a further fall. Supports 110.80, 109.85, 109.35 and 108.65;

- Cryptocurrencies. Despite their growth last week, the general mood in the crypto market is rather gloomy. More than 70% of analysts and market participants believe the current rise is purely speculative and they expect the downtrend to resume. They are still expecting bitcoin to fall to the strong zone, recorded in July-August 2018, $2,500-2,700. Moreover, such a fall may take from one to two months. The nearest support is in the $2,940-2.050 zone.
The bullish ambitions of the remaining 30% respondents look a bit more modest: they expect the BTC/USD pair to grow only to $4,800-5,200.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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[Stan NordFX]

2018 Financial Results and 2019 Forex Forecast​

What Happened: Year 2018

As usual, Deutsche Bank experts summed up the year at the end of December. And the results were just fantastic, with a negative connotation. 93% of all assets fell in comparison with January 2018, and this figure was the worst in the last 118 years, surpassing even 1920 with its 84%.
Experts say that the main reason for the recession was “extremely soft monetary policy,” which grew into a monetary tightening. Four US interest rate increases by the US Federal Reserve were enough to send most of the markets to a nose dove, which can turn into a prolonged recession. US President Donald Trump openly called Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues insane, calling for an end to the rate hike. But, as it turned out, the President could not decree bankers, and on December 19, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the rate by another 0.25%. Moreover, it turned out that in 2019 only two members of this Committee see a rate of 2.5%, six see it at 2.75%, four at 3.25%, three at 3.30%, and two FOMC members would like it to be 3.6%!
The result is obvious: at the end of the year, everything that could fall, was falling on the market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had the worst December since the Great Depression of the 1930s. As Bloomberg calculated, the collapse made 500 world richest people poorer by $ 511 billion, and Facebook founder Zuckerberg suffered the most, his fortune lost $23 billion.

As for the foreign exchange market, the beginning of 2018 was marked by a serious strengthening of the euro against the US dollar. At the peak, on February 16, the EUR/USD pair reached 1.2555. But then the difference in the monetary policy of the Fed and the ECB, the difficulties with the Brexit agreement, the Italian problems and the slowdown in the Eurozone economy as a whole, played into the dollar, and the pair went down, reaching the bottom at 1.1215 in mid-November.

GBP/USD experienced similar fluctuations. It reached the maximum value of 1.4375 on April 17, and the minimum was recorded on December 12, when the pair fell to 1.2475, losing 1,900 points in eight months.

As for the Japanese yen, investors viewed it mainly as a safe haven in case of acceleration of trade wars between the USA and China. However, since no special changes were observed on this front, the USD/JPY pair met the end of the year near the Pivot Point of the last two years in the 111.00 zone. Thus, compared to the beginning of 2018. the pair lost only about 200 points.


What will Happen: Year 2019

According to a number of analysts, everything that happened in the outgoing year is only the beginning of a common prolonged depression. First of all, the forecast concerns the United States, where the yield on two-year Treasury bonds has already decreased, and the yield on similar ten-year securities has fallen to a seven-month low, which is considered a sign of recession.
The situation in the Eurozone looks somewhat better, despite the fact that the ECB has revised its forecasts for inflation and economic growth downward. The past year has shown that the trade wars unleashed by Trump are not so terrible for the Old World as was previously assumed. However, both the European currency and the British pound continue to be influenced by the problems associated with Brexit.
On the other hand, the end of the 90-day truce between the United States and China will soon come up, which introduces additional uncertainty about the dollar exchange rate.
In the meantime, the forecasts given by strategists from leading world banks and agencies, for the most part, look quite similar.

Blomberg bases its forecast on the positive dynamics of European exports, improved situation in the German automotive industry and accelerated growth of average wages. All this may lead to the normalization of the monetary policy of the Eurozone and the growth of the euro to the level of $1.20 by the end of the year.

Morgan Stanley also expects the year 2019 to be difficult for the dollar and recommends its sale against the euro amid the forecast for inflation in the Eurozone. The immediate target for the EUR/USD pair is in the $1.18 zone.

It should be noted that, for the most part, analysts make very optimistic forecasts for the euro for the next 3-month period. Societe Generale and CIBC Capital Markets point out at the level $1.17, TD Securities forecast is at $1.18, Unicredit at $1.19, and finally, Lloyds Bank has set a record bar of $1.24.

However, there are more cautious views. Thus, Citi experts believe that the European currency has not yet reached its bottom, and by the end of the I quarter of 2019. it may drop to $1.13, and only then it will go up, reaching the mark at $1.18 in the second half of the year. The Barclays Capital expect a fall to $1.12 by March 31, and for ING Group forecasts, the bottom may be at the level of $1.11.

JPMorgan Chase analysts also believe that the US economy will experience a recession in 2019, as Trump's fiscal stimulus will run out, and the Fed’s monetary policy will no longer provide cheap money. Thus, the growth rate of the Eurozone economy will come out ahead, and the euro will start to grow on expectations of higher interest rates from the ECB, but this will happen only in the second half of 2019.
In numbers, the forecast looks like this: falling to $1.11 in the first quarter and rising to $1.18 by the end of the fourth quarter of 2019.

As for the GBP/USD, the JPMorgan Chase forecast assumes the growth of the British currency to $1.30 in the first quarter and to $1.37 by the end of the year, provided that Brexit is quiet (40% probability). In the absence of an Agreement on the terms of leaving the EU, the pound sterling will fall by 10%, and in the case of Brexit cancellation, on the contrary, it will grow by 10%.

Concerning the future, the yen forecast is negative. So, the pair JPY/USD in the first half of 2019. expects growth first to the level of 112 yen per dollar, and then to the values of 2016. at 118.00. Experts explain the possible weakening of the Japanese currency by an increase in foreign investment by Japanese companies and a worsening trade balance. Spreads are also expected to increase on the rates, which will adversely affect the yen rate.

Similar trends are predicted by Citi strategists. In their opinion, the GBP/USD is expected to grow to 1.26-1.30, and JPY/USD - to 113.00-115.00.


John Gordon, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

 

[Stan NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for January 7 - 11, 2019​

For starter, a few words about the events of the past week, the first working day of which gave unpleasant surprises, which for some were quite pleasant.

- Not having recovered after the New Year celebration, in the morning of January 2, the pair EUR/USD made a sharp dash to the south, losing almost 200 points in a day. Then, however, everything returned to normal, and the pair quickly returned to Pivot Point 1.1400, around which it has been revolving since October 2018. On Friday, January 5, using positive data from the US labor market, the dollar tried to regain the lost ground, but the attempt failed, and the pair ended the week at 1.1394.

- An even sharper jump from 2018 to 2019 was expecting the GBP/USD, which lost on January 2, due to increased demand for the dollar, more than 400 points. Then, just as in the case of the European currency, the excitement subsided, and the pair returned to the main support/resistance line of the last two months in the 1.2720 area;

- The forecast for the pair USD/JPY suggested the strengthening of the yen as a safe haven currency. But the fact that within only one hour on January 2 it would be able to win back 400 points from the dollar, that is, almost everything it had lost during the whole 2018, was almost impossible to foresee. The cause of the incident was a "festive" lack of liquidity in Japan, which was then eliminated. But the dollar could not fully recover, and the pair ended the trading week at 108.50;

- Cryptocurrencies. Against the background of the major currency pairs Bitcoin demonstrated a remarkable stability last week, keeping on to lateral movement in a narrow corridor of $3,775-4,100 and returned where it has repeatedly been in the last six weeks by Friday evening, to the level of $3,955. Following the example of the reference cryptocurrency, the Olympic calmness was shown by Litecoin (LTC/USD). But Ethereum and Ripple behaved somewhat more actively. Thus, the ETH/USD pair has grown by 12%, rising above the $160 mark, and the XRP/USD pair, on the contrary, lost 7%, although it could not break through the support of $0.3560.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Both trend indicators and oscillators on H4 and D1 have taken a neutral position. The opinions of the experts are divided as follows: 20% have voted for the growth of the pair, 40% are for the sideways trend and 40% are for the strengthening of the dollar and the fall of the pair.
It should be noted that in the transition from the weekly to monthly forecast, the number of supporters of strengthening the US currency rises to 65%. Graphical analysis on D1 also indicates a possible decrease of the pair to December lows in the 1.1215 zone. The nearest strong support area is 1.1305.
As for the “bullish” scenario, according to its supporters, the dollar will continue to be pressured by political uncertainty in the United States. The nearest strong resistance zone is 1.1485-1.1500, in case of its breakthrough, the next target for the bulls will be consolidation in the zone 1.1550-1.1625.
Among the economic events that could affect the formation of dollar pairs, one should pay attention to the US FOMC protocol, which will be published on Wednesday evening, January 9, the ECB meeting on Thursday, January 10, as well as data on inflation in the United States, which will be released at the very end of the week, on Friday, January 11;

- GBP/USD. Here, of particular interest are the speech of the head of the Bank of England, Mark Kearney on January 9, as well as data on UK GDP, published on January 11. However, in both cases, one should not expect any special surprises, and the uncertainty associated with the British exit from the EU will continue to be decisive for the British pound exchange rate. That is why 65% of experts predict a further fall of the pound. According to them, with the support of graphical analysis on D1, the pair will first test support 1.2615 once again and, if successful, will move to the zone 1.2475-1.2525. It is unlikely to achieve the low of the first week of January in the 1.2400 zone in the upcoming week.
20% of analysts are in favor of the GBP/USD sideways trend, and only 15% have sided with the bulls, suggesting movement of the pair in the corridor 1.2715-1.2835. The next resistance is 1.2925.
At the time of writing the forecast, about 90% of indicators sided with the bulls. However, most likely, this is only a consequence of the upward movement of the pair on January 3-5. Moreover, 10% of the oscillators have already signaled that it is overbought, which indicates a possible reversal of the pair to the south.

- USD/JPY. About half of the indicators are red and half are green. As for the opinions of analysts, 70% of them predict a decline of the pair to the level of 107.00, and then another 100 points lower. So far, only 30% of experts have voted for the growth of the pair, but in the medium term, the number of supporters of strengthening the dollar doubles. The main goal for the bulls is to return to the zone 112.25-113.80. The nearest resistance levels are 109.45, 110.25 and 111.15;

- Cryptocurrencies. The behavior of BTC/USD does not give reasons for optimism or pessimism. Therefore, the experts' opinions are divided almost equally: 30% are for the growth of Bitcoin, 30% are for its fall and 40% are for the continuation of the sideways trend. At the same time, the total capitalization of the crypto market is at the level of the end of December last year, around $130 billion, which also does not allow for making any predictions. Although some experts, based on the cyclical nature of the growth and the fall of quotations, argue that the first quarter of 2019 will be on the side of buyers, and expect the pair to rise to $4,800-5,200. The alternative scenario: the end of the correction and the fall of BTC/USD to the strong zone, recorded as early as July-August 2018: $2,500-2,700. Moreover, such a fall may take from one to two months. The nearest support is in the $2,940-3.050 zone.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

 

[Stan NordFX]

In Recognition of a Successful 2018, NordFX Receives Three More Prestigious Awards​

The results of the annual voting were published on the website of the International Association of Forex Traders IAFT Awards at the very beginning of the new year 2019. The voting was held for the seventh time, and according to its results a list of the most popular financial market companies in 2018 was formed. More than 200 companies struggled to win, and only 23 of them received the highest award: a victory in a nomination and a title of market leader. Among them is the brokerage company NordFX, which has won in the nomination “Best Broker in Asia” with a large difference.

Two more good pieces of news have been brought by the Market Leader magazine, which has published the results of the Expert Council of the MasterForex-V Academy voting. The administration and professional traders of the Academy evaluate the real results of financial organizations throughout the year, and at the end of the year they sum up the final results. According to the chairman of the contest jury, the rating of MasterForex-V Expo, which is compiled on the basis of two dozen criteria, is an Expo during which the best brokers are objectively presented. And thus in 2018, for the fourth year in a row, NordFX receives the Grand Prix and the title “World Best Broker”.

The company scored most votes on a variety of criteria, including the best dealing quality, the best innovations, the best investment products and funds, and a number of other equally important parameters. Suffice it to say that about 55% of the Academy's traders have opened their trading accounts in NordFX.

The company has received another award from MasterForex-V Expo in the nomination “Best Crypto Broker 2018” for creating unique trading conditions that enable traders to achieve best results when trading in the cryptocurrency market.

We sincerely thank everyone who has given us their votes, and we understand that these awards are not only a proof of the company's success in the past, but also oblige us to make every possible effort to justify your trust in the present and in the future.

#nordfx #cryptocurrency #forex #exchange #broker #funds

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