NordFX.com - ECN/STP, MT5, CQG, Multiterminal broker

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for August 17 - 21, 2020​

First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. Citing data from the Labor Department, optimists say that the U.S. economic recovery is gaining momentum. The pandemic-stricken labour market is beginning to recover and may have already overcome the worst stage of the crisis. Unemployment in July fell to 10.2% (against the April peak of 15%). 1.8 million people returned to work in July, a trend that continues for the third month in a row.
But, on the other hand, the revival of 9 million jobs in three months is only 43% of the 21 million lost in March-April. And 15.5 million Americans are still receiving unemployment benefits, which is more than twice higher than the maximum of the previous global financial crisis (6.6 million).
The market is waiting for the next stage of QE - pumping the economy with liquidity and other measures of fiscal stimulus, but Democrats and Republicans can not find common ground in Congress. President Trump does not want to inflate the next aid package for Americans too much, believing it will make them dependents sitting around the government's neck. But he is willing to make concessions to Democrats in exchange for cancelling postal voting in the upcoming US presidential election.
Negotiations go on, and in such an unobvious situation, the markets have taken a wait and see attitude. Although the S&P500 index continues to grow, it does not do it so vigorously. The yield on the 30-year US Treasury bonds seemed to have grown after a weak auction, but then fell along with a fall in risk sentiment in Europe associated with a worsening epidemiological situation and poor employment data. The disappointment of the latest macroeconomic data from China does not contribute to the growth of risk sentiment.
In general, uncertainty reigns across the board. As a result, both bulls and bears decided not to resort to active action, spending the last month of summer anywhere on the beach. The EUR/USD pair could not go beyond the 1.1700-1.1910 side corridor in three weeks, moreover, the fluctuation boundaries became even narrower, 1.1710-1.1865, the maximum volatility did not exceed 155 points, and the final chord of this quiet week sounded at 1.1840;

- GBP/USD. The forecast, which was announced seven days ago, turned out to be almost accurate: the UK GDP in the II quarter decreased by 20.5%. (For comparison, the Eurozone economy fell by 12.1% over the same period). However, this did not affect the quotes of the pound. As already mentioned, the GBP/USD pair has recently stopped playing independently and obediently follows the EUR/USD in the wake. So, if it moved east within 1.2980-1.3185 two weeks ago, now its trading range has narrowed to 1.3000-1.3140, the pair finished at 1.3085;

— USD/JPY. Recall that last week, most experts, supported by graphical analysis on H4, expected that the pair would try to test the 106.40 level again, and if successful, it would not stop there and go further up. This is exactly what happened: the pair went up against the background of growth in the yield of 30-year US Treasury securities, and, breaking through the resistance of 106.40, reached the height of 107.00. However, the dollar's growth soon stopped, and the pair rolled back downward, completing the five-day period in the zone of the strong mid-term support/resistance level of 106.60;

– cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin cannot overcome the $12,000 bar for the second week in a row. Another attempt was made, as is often the case, on the night from Sunday to Monday and ended in failure. After that, which again happens quite often, there was a powerful rebound downward, as a result of which the BTC/USD pair practically reached the $ 11,000 level on Wednesday, August 12. We have already written that this horizon has become a powerful new support for bitcoin, which is as difficult for the main cryptocurrency to overcome as the resistance of $12,000.
Bitcoin's fall came amid rising US government bond yields at the same time as a fall of about 10 per cent in the value of gold. At the same time, the overall background for BTC remains fairly favorable. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization grew by $13 billion in seven days, close to $370 billion. The Grayscale fund alone raised $1 billion in 10 days, which is more than in the entire II quarter of 2020. MicroStrategy Incorporated, which is one of the pillars of business intelligence, has declared Bitcoin as its main reserve asset and bought 21,454 BTC for a total amount of $250 million. Commenting on this move, CEO Michael Saylor stated that “Bitcoin, in their view, is a reliable means of saving and an attractive investment asset with long-term growth potential beyond holding cash."
By the evening of Friday August 14, Bitcoin had regained its position and returned to where it had already been at the end of last week - to the $11,750 zone, showing zero gain. But ethereum, the prospects of which we have repeatedly paid attention to, has once again pleased its investors, showing a gain of 13% and gaining a foothold above the level of $400. By the way, the above-mentioned Grayscale fund also showed an active interest in this top altcoin, having filed an application with the SEC (US Securities and Exchange Commission) for registering an Ethereum trust.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Only a clear breakdown of the 1.1700-1.1910 channel in one direction or another can give a clear idea of the dominant trend. In the meantime, amid dying activity, trend indicators continue to look north - those are 100% on H4 and 85% on D1. The picture is slightly different among oscillators. And although 75% of them on H4 and 70% on D1 are still green, the rest are already signaling that the pair is overbought, which is a rather strong signal for a trend reversal or a large-scale downward correction.
Graphical analysis on H4 draws a continuation of the sideways movement within 1.1700-1.1910. But according to the forecast on D1, the pair, having once again pushed off the support at 1.1700, may go up - first to the resistance at 1.1960, and then to the height of 1.2100.
30% of experts also expect further weakening of the dollar and growth of the pair. 25% of analysts agreed with the forecast for graphical analysis on H4. The remaining 45% are waiting for the pair to return first to the support at 1.1450, and then to decline to the 1.1240 zone. This will happen, however, not immediately, but within a few weeks. Moreover, in the medium term, this scenario is already supported by about 60% of analysts;

- GBP/USD. “Both the euro and the pound” - this is what the forecast for the GBP/USD pair looks like this week. Well, if not the same, it looks similar. As in the case of EUR/USD, 45% of experts vote for the pair to turn down in the coming weeks, and 60% in the medium term. 20% vote for the side trend, and 35% for further growth of the pair.
As for the trend indicators, 90% on H4 and 95% on D1 are painted green. Among the oscillators on H4, greens are only 60% and 40% have taken a neutral-grey position. On D1, 60% are also colored green, 35% are neutral grey and 5% have already changed their color to red.
Support levels are 1.3045, 1.2980, 1.2900, 1.2765 and 1.2670, resistance - 1.3125, 1.3185, 1.3200 and 1.3285;

- USD/JPY. On Monday, August 17, there will be data on Japan's GDP for the II quarter, which, according to forecasts, decreased by only 7.6%, which is one of the best indicators among developed countries and once again proves that not only the Japanese yen, but the entire country as a whole is an excellent refuge from economic and financial turmoil. But so far 100% of experts predict the strengthening of the dollar and the growth of the pair in the coming days first to 107.55, and then to 108.10. It should be noted that the 106.00-108.10 zone is the range in which the pair has been trading 75% of the time over the past 20 weeks. And apparently that's why experts believe that the pair will definitely linger for a while in this interval. However, 15% of oscillators on D1 are already giving signals that the pair is overbought, and this fact must be taken into account when opening positions.
It is also necessary to take into account that the forecast of analysts for the end of August-beginning of September changes sharply, and 55% of them are waiting for a trend reversal and a new fall in the pair. The targets are 105.30 and 104.20.

– cryptocurrencies. As you know, there are at least two ways out of any situation. This is the case of Bitcoin — one way up, the other down.
According to the well-known analyst and TV presenter Max Kaiser, the growth of the price of the main cryptocurrency is positively affected by the withdrawal of capital from Asia against the background of increasing geopolitical risks. And the worse the relationship between the United States and China will be, the stronger will be the desire of Chinese citizens to move their capital abroad. And it is easiest to do it with cryptocurrency.
There is another fundamental factor playing on the side of bitcoin - this is the $10 trillion poured into the global economy in the form of a quantitative easing (QE) program. Recall that in the second quarter, the decline in US GDP turned out to be the largest in the entire history of observations - minus 32.9%, which suggests that the period of ultra soft monetary policy is likely to continue at least until the end of 2020. And some of the funds received within the framework of QE will be on the crypto market. Which, according to a number of experts, makes the growth of the BTC/USD pair inevitable. For example, Wall Street veteran Raoul Pal believes bitcoin could hit $100,000 over the next two years. And here, an important leading indicator may be the termination of the correlation of bitcoin with such stock indices as the Nasdaq and the S&P500.
But there is an opposite scenario as well. To understand which one, just look at the BTC/USD chart from a year ago. In August 2019, bitcoin's price also broke the $11,000 mark and even got to $12,300. But after several attempts to break higher, the quotes first fell to $10,000, and then flew down altogether, reaching the bottom in March around $3,800. There may be no such disaster this time, but the pair's correction to the $10,000 horizon is real enough. Moreover, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has been at the level of 77-78 points for three weeks, which, according to its developers, suggests that the market is raged by strong overbought sentiment and needs to be corrected.
Interestingly, when giving a weekly forecast, most experts (55%) are inclined to believe that the BTC/USD pair will still break through the $12,000 resistance and rise to the $12,500-13,000 zone. However, when switching to the monthly scenario, 60% of analysts expect bitcoin to fall to $9,500-10,000 and offer to open long positions there.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

 

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews

- The head of the investment company Morgan Creek Anthony Pompliano believes that bitcoin in a few years will overtake the capitalization of gold. According to him, the main cryptocurrency is increasingly in demand among large investors. It is no longer perceived as a supporting asset, making it one of the most versatile investment tools that even government regulators will start working with. When the world has the possibility of “white” investing in bitcoin, its popularity will begin to increase at a frantic rate.
“I think bitcoin will surpass gold in capitalization by 2029. Then most of the financial institutions will stop being afraid of cryptocurrency and start investing large amounts in it. Until that time, digital assets will continue to be less in demand than fiat. The dollar and other currencies this year have shown weakness in the face of geopolitical fluctuations and even pandemics. Bitcoin has not only resisted, but also increased its potential”, Pompliano said.

- Larry Cermak, an analyst at The Block cryptocurrency publication, believes that if the trend continues, Ethereum can become the most sought-after asset in the corporate environment. “The commission revenues of Monero, Bitcoin Cash and BSV miners remain negligible. I think that there will be two big players in this game soon, bitcoin and ethereum. ETH continues to break records, and BTC still looks very weak in terms of the use of its network among companies,” Cermak said. In his opinion, the difference in their indicators will become so obvious soon that the altcoin will be officially recognized as the leader.
Emin Gun Sirer, a renowned researcher specializing in computer networks and P2P systems, also noted the upward trend in activity on the ethereum network. According to him, a typical mistake of investors in bitcoin is that they believe in its popularity this year, even though the coin has actually become just a means of saving assets.

- Seven out of ten cryptocurrency investors will keep their bitcoins even if its price drops to zero. This is evidenced by the results of a survey conducted by a well-known analyst under the nickname PlanB. The survey involved 22,635 Twitter users. When asked “At what price will you get rid of bitcoin if it does not rise sharply in the next few years?” 5.8% of respondents named the price below $1000, about the same amount - the range of $1000- $3000. 16.2% of those surveyed would have sold the coins at around $6,000. The remaining 72% of the survey participants said that they would continue to hold bitcoin even if its price approached zero.
Almost as many fanatical “hodlers” (57.5%) turned out in a July survey by critic of the first cryptocurrency, president of brokerage Euro Pacific Capital Inc. Peter Schiff, attended by 28,000 people.

- Legendary investor Warren Buffett will eventually see bitcoin in the investment portfolio of his holding company Berkshire Hathaway. Morgan Creek Digital venture capital firm co-founder Jason Williams is convinced of this. Moreover, in his opinion, Berkshire Hathaway can buy BTC even without the knowledge of its founder. 'These are young managers and analysts who are pushing gold trading and BTC trading. He won't even know when it happens," Williams explained. The reason for this forecast was the report of the management company of the "Oracle of Omaha" to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). According to this document, Berkshire Hathaway has reduced its positions in shares of the largest US banks - JPMorgan Chase & Co, Wells Fargo & Co, Goldman Sachs, Bank of New York Mellon, PNC Financial Services Group and US Bancorp, and has acquired almost 21 million shares of the gold mining company Barrick Gold for $562 million Now it's up to bitcoin.

- The SpaceChain project has announced the successful implementation of a multi-signature bitcoin transaction from space. The researchers sent 0.01 BTC to two addresses, for which they used specialized equipment located on the international space station. Recall that a multi-signature transaction, unlike a conventional transaction, requires multiple signatures for authorization, which has additional security benefits. “The implementation of the multi-signature transaction in space reflects our continued efforts to create an open network of satellites on the blockchain with enhanced security and unchangeability characteristics », 'reported SpaceChain co-founder and CTO Jeff Garzik.
The project is supported by the European Space Agency and intends to create products for digital banks and fintech companies in the future.

- Bitcoin price will reach $100,000 next summer, to be exact, on August 16, 2021. This is evidenced by the popular Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model used in the gold market. The forecast was published by an analyst under the moniker Bit Harrington. He added that the value seems too high to him for such a period but noted that Bitcoin has always gone against bearish sentiment.
Analyst and entrepreneur Mark Van Der Chase explained why this forecast could well come true. “A lot of people think it's impossible,” he wrote, “but I've seen 1,000% growth in less than a year at least twice in BTC history (in 2013 and 2017). S2F holds up pretty well after the halving. If the fear of lost profits resumes, anything is possible. "
On the same day, analyst Plan B, who was the first to apply S2F to Bitcoin, presented a chart confirming that recent BTC price movements are consistent with this pattern. According to his forecast, bitcoin could reach the level of $14,000 in the next week or two, for the first time since 2017.

- Bitcoin has overtaken the popularity of shares of leading companies in the United States, second only to Tesla. Boeing took the third place in views. This is evidenced by data from the analytical portal Blockchaincenter. Since the start of the year, Tesla shares have risen more than 283%, while bitcoin has added 60%. Apple, which rose 53%, failed to take the lead in any state. TradingView notes that the interest of traders and investors in this company is very low at the moment.

- Bloomberg reports on improving the fundamentals of the cryptocurrency market. The Blomberg Galaxy composite crypto index rose to its highest level since June 2019. This is a positive signal, according to analysts of the agency. Bloomberg experts linked the rise in the value of BTC and other cryptocurrencies with the improvement in the situation in the American stock market. The S&P500 is heading to new highs as investor interest in risky assets is growing again.

- The head of Galaxy Digital holding Mike Novogratz has once again stated that the value of bitcoin should increase to at least 20 thousand dollars by the end of this year. In an interview with CNBC, the entrepreneur spoke about his opinion on the future of the cryptocurrency industry against the backdrop of the halving experienced by the main coin and the economic situation in the world.
“Bitcoin is becoming a more sought-after retail tool. The interest of big investors in it is not fading either. This is stated by the increasing correlation of the main coin and precious metals. Bitcoin was heavily reliant on US stock markets in March, but now the connection between industries is gradually declining. The dollar exchange rate is almost irrelevant as well. The main reason for the surge in interest in cryptocurrency is the emission of large amounts of cash. In fact, fiat is just depreciating at a very fast rate. Because of this, the Bitcoin rally should start as soon as possible. I do not exclude that the historical maximum will once again be taken before the end of the year," Novogratz noted.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

 

[JamesEdwards98]

I wouldn't trust any broker that offers Binary - it's terrible.

 

[Stan NordFX]

I wouldn't trust any broker that offers Binary - it's terrible.

We haven't offered binary options trading for several years.

 

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for August 24 - 28, 2020​

First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. We noted in the previous forecast that only a clear breakdown of the channel 1.1700-1.1910 in one direction or another can give a clear idea of the dominant trend in conditions of subsiding activity. It is in this range that the pair has been moving for four weeks. But the breakdown never happened: after all it is August, holidays, and no extra events capable of stirring up markets, have not yet happened. The situation shows that investors are ready to buy back even very small drawdowns and close positions with very moderate profits. As a result, the breakthrough to 1.1965 did not bring success to the bulls, and the pair returned to the sidelines1.1700-1.1910, having finished the week not far from its central line, in the 1.1795 zone;

- GBP/USD. The British currency has also moved into a side trend, where it has stayed for the third week in a row. The main difference in the last five-day period was some dominance of bullish sentiment, caused rather by a general weakening of the dollar rather than a strengthening of the pound. And if the 1.3075 horizon could be viewed as Pivot Point in the first half of August, it has now turned into a level of support. Pushing off from it, the bulls raised the GBP/USD pair twice to aеру height of 1.3265, and twice it returned to the indicated support, near which, at the level of 1.3090, it put the final point;

— USD/JPY. The 106.00-108.10 zone is the range in which the pair has been trading 75% of the time over the past 20 weeks. And all the experts were sure that it would stay within these limits last week, moreover, that it would rise to its upper limit. However, the expected strengthening of the dollar did not happen, and those oscillators that warned against opening long positions, giving signals of overbought, turned out to be right. As a result, the pair, having broken through support 106.00, groped the local bottom of 100 points lower. Then, after the rebound, it could not overcome the level of 106.00, which has now become resistance, and completed the trading session at 105.80;

– cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin has gone from $4,000 to $12,000 over the past five months. Many experts believe that the main reason is the huge dollar mass that the US Federal Reserve has thrown into the market to overcome the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. By diversifying their portfolios, investors invested some of this money in real gold and digital gold, which have shown steady growth in recent months. Another part went where it was intended, to the stock market. But if bitcoin showed an increase of 200%, the gold rose in price by a little more than 30%, and the S&P500 index barely crossed the 50% mark.
In the United States, according to the financial analytical portal TradingView, the main cryptocurrency has surpassed the shares of leading American companies in popularity, losing only to Tesla Elon Musk. Boeing took the third place in views.
The data from another survey conducted by a well-known analyst under the nickname Plan B is Interesting as well, it was attended by 22.6 thousand Twitter users. When asked “At what price will you get rid of bitcoin if it does not rise sharply in the next few years?” 5.8% of respondents named the price below $1000, about the same amount - the range of $1000- $3000. 16.2% of those surveyed would have sold the coins at around $6,000. The remaining 72% of the survey participants said that they would continue to hold bitcoin even if its price approached zero.
In the meantime, the quotes of the leading cryptocurrency are very far from the "zero" level. Bitcoin is swinging on the scales against the dollar - when the USD (DXY) index goes down, BTC goes up, and vice versa. As most of our experts assumed, when at the beginning of last week, the DXY dropped from 93.1 to 92.16, the BTC/USD pair jumped upward, broke through the resistance of $12,000 and reached the height of $12.470. The dollar then returned to levels above 93, and bitcoin dipped to a new, fairly strong, support level, $11,600.
The total capitalization of the crypto market changed slightly over the week, falling from ¬$370 billion to $366 billion. The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index is in the last quarter of the scale for the fourth week and has even grown slightly — from 78 to 81 points. This suggests that the decline in the pair from $ 12,470 to $ 11,600 did not satisfy the market and it remains overbought.
And a few words about altcoins. Lately, a lot of attention - and rightly so - has been paid to ethereum. The Block analyst Larry Cermak believes that while the trend continues, ethereum could become the most sought-after asset in the corporate environment. “The commission revenues of Monero, Bitcoin Cash and BSV miners remain negligible. I think that there will be two big players in this game soon, bitcoin and ethereum. In his opinion, the difference in their indicators will become so obvious soon that the altcoin will be officially recognized as the leader.
However, at the moment it was not ETH which was the most profitable acquisition on the market, but yearn. finance (YFI). It was this coin that showed twenty-fold growth in a month and outstripped even bitcoin in value, reaching the height of $15,400. By the way, the YFI developers decided to follow the path of the leading cryptocurrency, limiting its circulation to only 30,000 coins, which led to such a jump in value. It is not at all a fact that the YFI price will hold at this level or go further up. It is possible that we will soon witness its equally rapid downfall. The aforementioned fact only suggests that, in addition to coins from the TOP-10, instruments have appeared, appear and will still appear on the crypto market that can bring hundreds and thousands of percent of profit due to short-term speculation.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits again exceeded 1 million in the United States last week. The statistics on manufacturing activity in New York and Philadelphia were also quite sad. Against this backdrop, the bulls made an attempt to renew multi-month highs and raise the pair above 1.2000. The attempt ended in failure, the pair returned to the limits of the channel 1.1700-1.1910, and the main benchmark for the market still remains the prospects of another, autumn round of the pandemic COVID-19.
At first glance, the better epidemiological situation in Europe should convince investors that the eurozone economy will recover faster than the US economy. But the situation is getting worse every day. In Germany, the rate of infected with COVID-19 exceeded the highs in May, in France, the number of cases increased by 50% in a week, jumping over 1,500, in Spain, about 4,800 cases of infections are recorded daily, which, in terms of 1 million people, is only 25% less than in the USA. So, it is quite possible that quarantine measures in the EU will be tightened again, causing another blow to the economy, and the ECB will be forced to expand its quantitative easing (QE) program. This, in turn, will push the EUR/USD pair down.
On the other hand, the dollar, apart from doubts about the pace of recovery of the US economy, continues to be pressured by the growth of money supply from the Fed, the growth of national debt, the decline in government bond yields, tug-of-war in the confrontation with China, and uncertainty about the upcoming presidential election. As a result, the USD (DXY) index, which shows the ratio of the dollar to 6 major currencies, fell from the highs of mid-March (104 points) to the lows of May 2018 around 92-93 points.
Today, the preferences of most analysts are still on the side of the dollar. 60% of them believe that the EUR/USD pair is able to break the support of 1.1700 and fall at least another 100 points lower. According to the remaining 40%, the pair will still remain within the trading range of 1.1700-1.1910, with which the graphical analysis on D1 agrees.
The indicators on H4, working out the trend of the second half of the last week, are naturally colored red. But on D1 there is a complete color confusion, which confirms the forecast of sideways movement.
And now positive information for those who, in the medium term, are betting on the victory of the euro over the dollar. If you look at the options market, it does not exclude the growth of the EUR/USD pair to the levels of 1.2200-1.2500. However, it is necessary to keep in mind that COVID-19 will surely put everything in its place this autumn. And one of the decisive factors here may be the emergence of a vaccine against this scourge and the speed and scale of vaccination in different countries.

- GBP/USD. “As the euro, so the pound” — this is how the forecast for the GBP/USD pair sounds for the third week in a row. As with EUR/USD, 60% of experts vote for the turn of the pair down. They are supported by 75% of oscillators, 80% of indicators and graphical analysis on H4. The closest strong support is at 1.3000. In case of its breakout, the bears will try to move the pair to echelon 1.2665-1.2765.
But on D1 there is still a slight advantage for the “green” ones among the indicators. In addition, signals about the pair being oversold are also signaled by 25% oscillators on H4. According to 40% of analysts, two side channels can be drawn for the pair. The first, narrow one - 1.3075-1.3185, and the second, wider in case of increased volatility - 1.3000-1.3265. The goal of bulls to update the 2019 high of 1.3515 is hardly achievable in the coming days;

— USD/JPY. 50% of experts believe that the pair will again try to test the strength of the support in the 105.00 zone and reach the low of July 31, 104.18. This scenario is supported by 60% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators on D1. The rest of the indicators on both timeframes are colored neutral gray. 15% of analysts have also taken a neutral position. As for the remaining 35% of experts, they predict the pair will return to the trading range 106.00-108.10;

– cryptocurrencies. The news feed, as usual, is full of optimistic crypto-guru statements.
Anthony Pompliano, CEO of Morgan Creek Investment Company: “I think bitcoin will surpass gold in capitalization by 2029. Then most of the financial institutions will stop being afraid of cryptocurrency and start investing large amounts in it. The dollar and other currencies this year have shown weakness in the face of geopolitical fluctuations and even pandemics. Bitcoin has not only resisted, but also increased its potential”, Pompliano said.
Jason Williams, co-founder of venture capital firm Morgan Creek Digital, is confident that legendary investor and adversary of cryptocurrencies Warren Buffett will eventually see bitcoin in the investment portfolio of his holding company Berkshire Hathaway. And it can happen even without his knowledge. 'These are young managers and analysts who are pushing gold trading and BTC trading. He won't even know when it happens," Williams explained.
Bitcoin price will reach $100,000 next summer, to be exact, on August 16, 2021. This forecast was published by an analyst under the pseudonym Bit Harrington, based on the popular Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model used in the gold market. He added that the value seems too high to him for such a period but noted that bitcoin has always gone against bearish sentiment.
Analyst and entrepreneur Mark Van Der Chase explained why this forecast could well come true. “A lot of people think it's impossible,” he wrote, “but I've seen 1,000% growth in less than a year at least twice in BTC history (in 2013 and 2017). S2F holds up pretty well after the halving. If the fear of lost profits resumes, anything is possible. "
- The head of Galaxy Digital holding Mike Novogratz has once again stated that the value of bitcoin should increase to at least 20 thousand dollars by the end of this year. And the analyst Plan B, who was the first to apply S2F to bitcoin, presented a chart according to which this cryptocurrency may, for the first time since 2017, reach the level of $ 14,000 in the next week or two.
It is interesting that, despite such optimistic statements, most experts look at the prospects for BTC quite calmly. They do not exclude that bitcoin, as an alternative to fiat currencies, will receive a new growth impetus during the second wave of the pandemic. If, of course, it happens this fall. But so far 70% of analysts expect that in the first half of autumn the BTC/USD pair will move along the Pivot Point of $11,000 with one-time emissions up to $9,500 to the south and to $13,000 to the north. And only 30% of experts believe that in the coming weeks the pair will be able to steadily gain a foothold above $12,000.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

 

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews

- A new report by the cryptocurrency fund Grayscale Investments states that the current structure of the BTC market is similar to that of early 2016 before the historic bullish growth began. Fund analysts predict that demand for bitcoin will rise significantly as inflation accelerates. At the same time, their report provides readings of several network indicators indicating the growing interest in this cryptocurrency. This is confirmed by the number of active addresses, which is at the highest level after the record highs of 2017. Also, against the background of historical lows in the number of bitcoins stored in the "reserves" of cryptocurrency exchanges, the number of long-term investors has increased. This suggests that the demand for bitcoin is not just growing, but at some point, may even seriously exceed the supply.

- A hacker stole the personal data of users of the CryptoTrader.Tax service, which is intended for tax accounting when making transactions with digital currencies. This was reported by the CoinDesk news agency. At least 1,082 clients became victims of the attacker. The hacker gained access to the resource base through the account of a support employee. This allowed him to steal clients' user data, including names, email addresses, part of cryptocurrency transaction revenue details and profile information in payment systems. CryptoTrader.tax confirmed the leak. However, according to co-founder David Kemmerer, user accounts have not been compromised.
After stealing the data, the hacker posted ads on the darknet forums for the sale of the stolen client base.

- Recall that the popularity of BTC in Hong Kong increased amid protests last year. And now, after the arrest on August 10 of the well-known critic of the Chinese government billionaire Jimmy Lai, his popular Hong Kong newspaper Apple Daily decided to vex the Chinese authorities by placing a bitcoin ad on the front page. Apple Daily, which is read by more than half a million people every day, has criticized traditional banks by proposing the mainstream cryptocurrency as an alternative. “Bitcoin will never leave you. Banks, it is not you who are leaving me today, it is me who is leaving you,” reads the text on the front page of the publication. And then the key advantages of cryptocurrency over traditional financial instruments are cited:
“Bitcoin is digital money. It is not issued or controlled by banks or corporations. No one can stop you from carrying out a transaction on the network, and it can't be turned off. Bitcoin is available to everyone regardless of nationality, gender, or belief. Bitcoin started with a genesis block during the 2009 financial crisis. Now is its time,” Apple Daily writes.

- The cybercriminals who created the ransomware Ryuk withdrew about $1 million of the ransom funds through the Binance bitcoin exchange. This is reported by Forbes with reference to cybersecurity specialists who wished to remain anonymous. In response to a request from the publication, security experts at Binance said that "fighting money laundering, ransomware and other malicious activities is their daily work." And they added that their arsenal has a lot of tools to detect suspicious activity. In total, according to the FBI, the victims of the ransomware transferred $61 million to the creators of Ryuk.

- The author of the legendary book “Rich Dad Poor Dad” entrepreneur and investor Robert Kiyosaki declared the inevitability of a new global banking crisis. Moreover, the coming shock will be more widespread than in previous financial crises. Investors need to accelerate the transition to "safe havens," Kiyosaki wrote on Twitter. He also stressed that the proof of the approaching crisis was the fact that such big financiers as Warren Buffett are already selling their assets related to the banking sector. “Probably, these people feel that the crisis is impending and will affect, first of all, the traditional financial system,” - said Kiyosaki. In his opinion, it is necessary now to transfer your capital into more reliable instruments, such as bitcoin, gold and silver.

- Trade in cryptocurrencies through mobile apps has grown by 81% compared to last August. According to the latest report from analyst firm Apptopia, cryptocurrency trading via mobile apps is becoming more and more popular: each new month surpasses the previous one in terms of the number of active users and new registrations. According to some experts, this is due to the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic, as well as the rise in the cost of crypto assets.
Among the most popular mobile cryptocurrency trading apps are Coinbase, Blockchain Wallet, and Binance. According to Apptopia, Coinbase and Crypto.com mobile apps recorded a record number of active users per day on August 20 - 969,000 and 576,000, respectively. “July is the highest performing month for mobile cryptocurrency apps in the history of the market, but August has the potential to surpass it,” says the analyst firm's blog.

- Uber's former security chief, Joseph Sullivan, is accused of paying hackers $100,000 in BTC for concealing information about the theft of personal data. In 2016, hackers hacked into the database of Uber, an international company providing taxi search services, according to the U.S. Department of Justice. Attackers gained access to the data of 57 million users, as well as to the driver's license numbers of about 600,000 drivers.
Despite the anonymity of the hackers, Sullivan entered into a non-disclosure agreement with them, under which they were required to keep the hacking of the company's database secret and not to store the received data. Even after Uber employees identified the hackers, it is believed that Sullivan demanded that the attackers re-sign the agreement, providing their real names this time.
Law enforcement agencies became aware of the event only in November 2017, when the management of the company changed. The hackers have already been arrested. As for Sullivan, if found guilty, he could face up to five years in prison for obstructing the enforcement of the law and up to three years in prison for harbouring a crime.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

 

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for August 31 - September 04, 2020​

First, a review of last week’s events:

– EUR/USD. 60% of analysts once again tried to give priority to the dollar last week, hoping that the EUR/USD pair will still break the support of 1.1700. In the opinion of the remaining 40%, it should have stayed within the side channel 1.1700-1.1910, which actually happened. Moreover, its finish took place near the upper border of this corridor.
The growth of the pair and the weakening of the dollar were blamed on the statement by the head of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell at a symposium in Jackson Hole which some analysts even called historical. The Fed decided to take the most serious step in monetary policy starting in 2012, announcing its plans to aim for an “average inflation rate of 2%.” This means that the regulator will not tighten its monetary policy even if the inflation rate exceeds these very two percent.
These changes suggest a softer monetary policy in the coming months and even years. And even more so, investors should not expect an increase in the interest rate on the dollar. As Jerome Powell noted, the country's economy, which is recovering from the recession, needs low rates.
As a result, the dollar went down, giving a signal to a sell-off of the US debt. There was a dumping of not only long-term, but also short-term government bonds. Together, this forms a kind of vicious circle, since the loss of interest in these securities can, in turn, put pressure on the dollar, which may lead to its further weakening against competing currencies.
The market's awareness of this situation led to the fact that on Thursday-Friday the EUR/USD pair rose to the upper boundary of the corridor 1.1700-1.1910, ending the week session at 1.1900;

– GBP/USD. The pound continues to climb to the 2019 high of 1.3515, and it got very close to this target last week, making a 280-point break and reaching 1.3350. The British currency is supported not only by the constantly weakening dollar, but also by the weakening British Prime Minister.
According to The Times newspaper, Boris Johnson is struggling with the consequences of the illness caused by COVID-19, and for this reason can resign at the end of the Brexit transition period, that is, by end of the year. Since Johnson will be interested in ending his prime minister career on a high positive note, the UK's parting with the EU could go smoothly, without losing its access to the European single market and customs union. And this, naturally, will further strengthen the pound;

– USD/JPY. The pair has been trading in the range of 105.10-107.00 for the last four weeks. However, its volatility has increased significantly in recent days. And the main reason for this is not the speech of the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, but the news that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe intends to step down for health reasons.
That message allowed the yen to strengthen by 175 points. Why? The question is quite complex. As some analysts explain, Abe served as Prime Minister for the longest time since the end of World War II, and together with the head of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, did everything to prevent the strengthening of the national currency by any means, including negative interest rates. Such a policy has been called “Abenomics”, although many believe it is more correct to refer to it as “Kurodanomics”.
Shinzo Abe is leaving now, and the era of "abenomics" may pass with him, which will entail a loosening of tight fiscal policies and a strengthening of the national currency.
In the meantime, as mentioned above, nothing super serious has happened, the yen has kept within the August corridor and completed the five-day period at 105.35;

– cryptocurrencies. Even though bitcoin, like about a year ago, was unable to gain a foothold above $ 12,000, the situation remains generally favourable for it. First, it is the soft monetary policy of the main regulators, the end of which is not yet expected. Secondly, we have seen a continuous growth in the number of companies and services that have started to accept cryptocurrencies as means of payment. The attitude towards digital assets and a number of central banks has become more loyal. Here, according to analysts, the COVID-19 pandemic played a large role, due to which a significant part of our life went online. It seems that even the FATF (Financial Action Task Force) has come to terms with the existence of the crypto industry.
Cryptocurrency trading through mobile apps is up 81% compared to August last year. According to the latest report from the analytical company Apptopia, this type of transactions each new month surpasses the previous one in terms of the number of active users and new registrations. The mobile apps Coinbase and Crypto.com recorded a record number of daily active users, 969,000 and 576,000, respectively, on August 20.
The number of large long-term investors continues to grow as well. So, according to Glassnode, there are currently 2,190 wallets with 1,000 or more BTC coins. All in all, these wallets store almost 8 million bitcoins for a total of more than $90 billion. And this is a very strong incentive for the future growth of BTC/USD.
In the meantime, bitcoin found a new Pivot Point last week - $11,500, along which it has been moving all this time. The BTC/USD pair was above this line for the first part of the seven-day period, then it went down to the support of $11,100. But soon it returned $400 higher. This happened largely thanks to the statement of the head of the Federal Reserve J. Powell at a symposium in Jackson Hole, which led to some weakening of the dollar and the growth of alternative assets, including gold and bitcoin.
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization decreased in seven days, but not by much - from $ 366 billion to $ 360 billion. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index came out of the last quarter, dropping from 81 points to 74. According to the developers of the indicator, this suggests that BTC being overbought is gradually fading away, so it can now be dangerous to open short positions.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

– EUR/USD. Speaking at Jackson Hole, Jerome Powell, in fact, clipped the dollar's wings. The head of the Fed has made it clear that the interest rate will remain at a record low even in case of increasing inflationary pressures. This is clearly a bearish signal for the US currency, which amplifies the likelihood of the euro and other major currencies rising against the dollar.
On the other hand, the Fed has no plans to lower the rate below zero, which is a moderate-positive factor for the USD rate. In addition, it should be borne in mind that other central banks can follow the path of the Fed, not reducing, but continuing and expanding the quantitative easing (QE) policy. So, for example, the ECB may take a position similar to the Fed. Already now, the head of the Bank of France, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, has spoken about a similar inflation target. Central banks of other countries of the Eurozone, in which the number of coronavirus cases is on the rise, can also join his voice. So the coming dollar drawdown is not as clear as it seems at first glance.
So far, if you look at the indicators, the situation is not in its favour. 85% of oscillators on H4 and D1 are painted green, 15% are in the overbought zone. Among the trend indicators, there are even more supporters of the EUR/USD pair growth: 100% on H4 and 95% on D1.
But the picture is radically different among experts. 60% of them believe that the pair will remain in the 1.1700-1.1910 price range. And since it finished the last week at its upper border, this means a trend reversal and a return of the pair to the level of 1.1700. The remaining 40% of analysts vote for the breakdown of the upper boundary of the channel, further weakening of the dollar and the rise of the pair first to the height of 1.1950, and then to the iconic level of 1.2000.
It also makes sense to pay attention to the graphical analysis readings. On the D1, its forecast for September is as follows: first a drop to 1.1700, then a jerk up to 1.2035, followed by side movement in the channel 1.1900-1.2035.
And a few words on the macroeconomic developments of the coming week. On Tuesday September 01, we will see data on the consumer market of the Eurozone, the US ISM business activity indices will be published on September 01 and 03, and on Friday September 04, we will traditionally learn about the state of the US labor market, including the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP);

– GBP/USD. It is clear that 100% of the trend indicators at the end of the past week are looking north. But as for the oscillators on H4 and D1, 25% are already giving signals that the pound is overbought. 55% of experts also support bearish sentiment. Moreover, when moving from weekly to monthly forecast, their number increases to 80%. Support zones are 1.3275, 1.3155 and 1.3050.
The GBP/USD pair closed the last trading session at 1.3350 - this is a fairly strong resistance level, which it had stormed unsuccessfully both in July 2018 and March 2019, so there are a lot of chances for a rebound from it and a downward correction. On the other hand, the desire of the bulls to renew the 2019 high at 1.3515 is also a strong stimulus that supports the losing dollar.
As in the case of EUR/USD, graphical analysis on D1 is of interest. According to its readings, the pair may reach a height of 1.3515 in the coming days, after which a rebound will follow, and it will first return to support 1.3275, and then drop to the level of 1.3050.
Certain adjustments to the dynamics of the pair can be made on Wednesday September 02 hearing of the Inflation Report prepared by the Bank of England and the speech of its head Andrew Bailey on Thursday September 03;

– USD/JPY. The forecast for this pair is similar to that given above for the euro and pound. Most of the indicators point to a further weakening of the dollar, most experts, on the contrary, to its strengthening.
100% of trend indicators and 75% of oscillators are painted red. The remaining 25% of oscillators on both timeframes, H4 and D1, signal that the pair is oversold.
65% of analysts believe that the USD/JPY pair will not leave the 105.10-107.00 corridor limits, and only 35% consider the possibility of reducing it to the July 31 low of 104.18;

– cryptocurrencies. The crypto market capitalization is only $360bn now, which is about 25 -30% of the capitalization of Microsoft, Apple or Amazon. But cryptocurrencies are not one corporation, but a whole financial and technological industry that unites thousands of companies around the world. And this gives reason to say that the digital asset market is greatly underestimated.
A new report by the cryptocurrency fund Grayscale Investments states that the current structure of the BTC market is similar to that of early 2016 before the historic bullish growth began. Fund analysts predict that demand for bitcoin will rise significantly as inflation accelerates.
The growth of bitcoin due to the inevitability of a new global banking crisis was also announced by the author of the legendary book "Rich Dad Poor Dad", entrepreneur and investor Robert Kiyosaki. Moreover, the coming shock in his opinion will be more widespread than in previous financial crises. Investors need to accelerate the transition to "safe havens," Kiyosaki wrote on Twitter. He also stressed that the proof of the approaching crisis was the fact that such big financiers as Warren Buffett are already selling their assets related to the banking sector. “Probably, these people feel that the crisis is impending and will affect, first of all, the traditional financial system,” - said Kiyosaki. In his opinion, it is necessary now to transfer your capital into more reliable instruments, such as bitcoin, gold and silver.
Analysts currently call the coronavirus pandemic one of the main growth drivers for the BTC/USD pair. It is thanks to it that many investors turned their views to the main cryptocurrency and other digital coins. And then Jerome Powell said that the Fed is not going to tighten monetary policy, which in the long term can also lead to the growth of bitcoin.
Some experts in technical analysis also see the prospects for a breakdown of the $12,000 level and a rise of the pair to $40-45 thousand on the W1 and MN time frames. However, in the near future, 65% of analysts expect the BTC/USD pair to move along the $11,000 Pivot Point with one-off emissions up to $9,500 south and up to $12,800 north. Moreover, only 20% of experts believe that bitcoin will be able to at least touch the $14,000 mark in September.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

 

[Stan NordFX]

Number of Accounts Opened in NоrdFX Exceed 1.500.000​

Since its foundation in 2008, NоrdFX brokerage company has become one of the recognized leaders in the international forex industry, as evidenced by the trust of clients from more than 190 countries. And this August, the number of trading accounts opened in the company has reached 1 million 500 thousand.

NоrdFX's leading positions are indicated not only by broker ratings published by specialized resources. The company is regularly included in the TOP-10 of many reputable analytical publications that assess the quality of financial services provided. It should be especially noted that among more than 50 of its professional awards there are victories, which directly testify to the trust of the trading community.

Among them:
- Most Reliable Broker 2016, 2017 (The Forex Awards and ShowFX World),
- Most Trusted Cryptocurrency Broker 2018 (Global Brands Awards),
- Traders' Choice World Best Broker (Masterforex-V Academy).

One cannot but recall the multiple victories in various nominations of the IAFT Awards - an award founded by the International Union of Forex Traders, which is more than 200,000 traders from various countries. So, in 2012, NоrdFX won the Best Broker for Trading with Advisors nomination, in 2017 it won the IAFT Awards as The Best Broker to Work with Cryptocurrencies, and in 2015, 2018 and 2019 it was recognized as the Best Broker in Asia.

Evaluating the work of NordFX, the company's clients note its reliability, excellent trading conditions for both beginners and experienced traders, a wide selection of financial instruments, high quality dealing, but most importantly, trust-based business relationships that exist between employees and partners of NordFX and its clients.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

 

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews

- Many experts are inclined to believe that bitcoin may roll back to values below $10,000 in the near future. Now the main coin is doing quite well, however, with a possible restoration of investor interest in fiat and, first of all, in the dollar, the situation risks changing quickly. It is also possible that fees on the Ethereum network, which recently negatively affected the value of the second largest coin, will begin to fall again, due to which ETH will regain its popularity.
“The main cryptocurrency could not hold on to values above 12 thousand dollars, while it clearly lacks support. Its fall will mark a new major drawdown. Most likely, miners who have only recently been able to recover from halving will suffer from it. In this case, we will again have to hope for the arrival of new investors who will stabilize the situation,” said Teddy Cleps, a well-known trader.
Analysts from the Crypterium financial company team do not rule out a drawdown of the main coin to the lowest values since the beginning of August either. And it can happen very soon. If bitcoin breaks the barrier of $10,000, the rollback can take months. As a rule, in early autumn, the main coin feels insecure, however, a drawdown gives a chance for a new large-scale rally to start closer to the New Year.

- Atupri Health Insurance, a large Swiss insurance company, has started accepting payments in bitcoin and Ethereum. More specifically, it will receive fiat money after exchanging digital assets through the Bitcoin Suisse crypto exchange. “Our company does not own bitcoins. The payment in Swiss francs will be calculated in real time. Thanks to Bitcoin Suisse, we are not exposed to financial risks,” explains Caroline Meli, head of marketing and sales at Atupri. “As digital pioneers in the healthcare sector, we anticipate social trends and offer insurance solutions with a long-term perspective. Among them are blockchain and cryptocurrencies," Meli said. For reference: 200 thousand customers use Atupri Health Insurance every year. The company's sales for 2019 amounted to almost $887 million.

- Authorities in the Malaysian state of Johor have detained miners suspected of a major power theft. This is reported by the local news portal The Star. Searches of two clandestine mining farms in the town of Iskandar Puteri were conducted by representatives of the Malaysian Energy Commission (ST), the Tenaga Nasional Berhad energy company and local officials. They found 148 pieces of mining equipment in two rooms. Its owners stole energy bypassing the electricity meters, as a result of which they paid $7-14 per month for it, while the real amount reached $20 thousand. The cumulative damage for the entire operation of the clandestine farms exceeded $600 thousand. According to the newspaper, the suspects face up to 10 years in prison.

- Self-proclaimed Satoshi Nakamoto, Australian computer scientist and businessman Craig Wright has already been marked by a number of lawsuits to protect his honour and dignity against members of the bitcoin community. The list includes the co-founder of Ethereum Vitalik Buterin, the CEO of the Blockstream blockchain technology company Adam Back, the host of the podcast What Bitcoin Did Peter McCormack, and the popular Twitter bitcoin investor Hodlonaut. And now, as CoingEek reports, Craig Wright's lawyers have filed a lawsuit in the Antigua and Barbuda High Court in a defamation case against the founder of Bitcoin.com cryptocurrency company Roger Ver. The occasion was a YouTube video in which Ver called Wright a “liar and a con man” for claiming to create Bitcoin. It should be noted that Ver subsequently removed the video, but Wright, apparently, did not find it enough.

- Hackers stole 1.4 thousand bitcoins (about 16.3 million dollars) from an investor who held the coins in his wallet since 2017. The victim told the GitHub portal that he kept the cryptocurrency on Electrum wallet, which he had not visited since the purchase. To transfer funds, he installed an old version of the application, but was unable to complete the transaction. In a pop-up window, he was asked for security reasons to update the wallet to the latest version. As a result, after such a "update" all of its assets were moved to the address of the attackers.

- The consequences of the activities of the US Federal Reserve System were so serious that even the leaders of such payment giants as Visa started talking about Bitcoin. On August 28, after the announcement of the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, about the plans of his department, the DXY dollar index fell to a critically low level of 92.28. In response, Visa's Public Policy Director Andy Yee tweeted: “Jerome Powell's speech today will go down in history books. This is the first time I've seen such a small group steal so much from so many people. Save yourself with bitcoin."

- Commissioned by P2P platform Paxful, cryptocurrency website Cripto 247 conducted an online survey of 1,113 Argentines from 18 to 55 years old. According to its results, 74% of respondents believe that given the current economic and political situation, crypto assets are the best option to protect savings. At the same time, 68% of respondents note that investments in cryptocurrency are “quite safe”.

- Renowned bitcoin critic and gold advocate, President of brokerage company Euro Pacific Capital Peter Schiff is not against cryptocurrency if it is presented as a gift to his son. “Since you guys are making fun of me about my son buying bitcoin, why don't you remind me of this by giving him some more coins for his birthday. He turned 18 yesterday," the golden beetle said. His call seems to have resonated: at the time of publication, 0.106 BTC, or about $1,200 at current exchange rates, had been sent to the gift address.
Like his father, eighteen-year-old Spencer Schiff likes to speculate on financial topics on Twitter. By his own admission, he invested $450 in bitcoin a few weeks ago, but the cryptocurrency is still only a small part of his portfolio. “I have much more money in shares of gold mining companies, although I am thinking about investing in bitcoin,” the young Spencer told readers.

- The volume of bitcoins held in miners' wallets has reached 1.82 million BTC, which is the highest value in the last two years. Ex-director of leading mining pool F2Pool Thomas Heller believes that the reluctance of miners to sell bitcoins is a positive signal for the price of the coin. In a comment to news agency CoinDesk, he noted that they are now biding their time for better selling levels.
However, there are other versions as well. For example, the vice-president of the GRIID mining company Harry Sudock admitted that the decrease in sales rates is due to the transition of miners to new equipment. According to him, this period takes about six months, during which time miners sell cryptocurrency only to cover running costs.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

 

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for September 07 - 11, 2020​

First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The statement of the head of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell at the symposium in Jackson Hole is still the most discussed among investors and experts. The Fed decided to take the most serious step in monetary policy starting in 2012, announcing its plans to aim for an “average inflation rate of 2%.” This means that the regulator will not tighten its monetary policy even if the inflation rate exceeds these very two percent.
With his speech, Powell dealt another blow to the dollar, which has surrendered one position after another since March 20. The printing press launched by the Federal Reserve during the pandemic and the decrease in interest rates led to the fact that, starting from 1.0635, the pair EUR/USD rose above 1.2000 last week. During this period, the euro appreciated against the US currency by 13%, which is bad enough for the European economy.
Back in 2015-16, the then head of the ECB Mario Draghi introduced a policy of negative interest rates. This made it possible to lower the quotes of the single European currency to 1.0500, that is, almost to parity with the dollar. The weak euro contributed to higher inflation and economic growth in the EU, bolstered the eurozone's export potential, making its goods cheaper for the overseas consumer. However, in 2018, the euro went up again, rising to about 1.2000. Then, with great difficulty, it was lowered down again. And now we see 1.2000 again.
It is clear that in order to reverse the trend southward, the European regulator will have to resort to a very aggressive monetary policy. The importance of the exchange rate for the health of the Eurozone was announced this week by ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane. His remark allowed the dollar to strengthen a bit. However, we can expect the main events next week on Thursday, September 10, when the next meeting of the European Central Bank will take place. More on this in the second part of this article.
And now about the forecast given by experts for the past week. 60% of them felt that the pair EUR/USD would hold in the price range of 1.1700-1.1910. The remaining 40% voted for the breakdown of the upper border of the channel and the growth of the pair to the symbolic level of 1.2000. If you look at the chart, it becomes clear that both of them were right: the pair really reached the 1.2000 height. However, it could not gain a foothold there and quickly dropped to the 1.1780 horizon. The last chord of the five-day period was set at 1.1840. That is, the pair has been in a smoothly ascending channel with a width of about 200 points for the fifth week already, which allows us to say that the final trend reversal in favor of the dollar has not yet occurred;

- GBP/USD. In general, the weekly chart of this pair follows the EUR/USD chart. The difference is that if the European currency eventually returned to the central part of the ascending medium-term channel, the pound did not do this, and ended the week near its upper border - at around 1.3275. However, the bulls did not manage to update the 2019 high of 1.3515. Their upward spurt was stopped at 1.3482;

- USD/JPY. Markets are still ruled by risk sentiment rather than macroeconomic indicators. Many investors expected that the publication of data on the US labor market on Friday, September 04, could affect the dynamics of the USD/JPY pair, however, nothing extraordinary happened: first, a slight increase by 30 points, and then a return to its original positions.
The forecast given by the majority of analysts (65%) spoke of the strengthening of the dollar and that the pair would not leave the corridor of 105.10-107.00. This is exactly what happened. Starting from Monday, the dollar rushed upward, reaching a height of 106.55 on Thursday and showing an increase of 120 points. As for the end of the trading session, the pair completed it at the level of 106.22;

- cryptocurrencies. One of the richest people on the planet, Warren Buffett, has invested $6 billion dollars in shares of Japanese companies. Commenting on this move, renowned crypto enthusiast and TV presenter Max Kaiser said that Buffett is fleeing the dollar in this way, the depreciation of which will lead to a sharp rise in quotations of alternative assets such as gold and bitcoin.
Perhaps there is some logic in Kaiser's statement, however, gold, on the contrary, has fallen in price by 7%, and Bitcoin has not been able to overcome the $ 12,000 milestone over the past month, starting from August 7.
Our analysts predicted that the BTC/USD pair would move along Pivot Point $11,000 with one-off emissions up to $9,500 south and up to $12,800 north. It is this scenario that starts to come true. At the beginning of the week, the bulls went on another assault, but could hardly get to the height of $12,050. Miners, who, in anticipation of further growth, kept a record amount of cryptocurrency in their wallets, worth more than $ 20 billion (1.82 million BTC), began to sell it. The outflow of bitcoins from their wallets, according to CryptoQuant, amounted to over 1,500 BTC during the day from Wednesday to Thursday. Of course, this is not so much, but, as it turned out, it is quite enough for the bears to completely take over the market. As a result, the main cryptocurrency lost almost 17% in price, reaching $ 10,000, on Friday September 04. The dollar, growing contrary to Max Kaiser's forecasts, affected the collapse as well.
The total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market decreased from $ 360 billion to $ 334 billion in seven days. Moreover, it reached $ 393 billion at its peak on August 2, that is, the drop was 15% in just two days. The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index dropped from 74 points to 40, and just like the RSI, it came out of the overbought zone.
The dominance of the main cryptocurrency in the market continues to decrease. If at the beginning of the year its capitalization was about 70%, now it has dropped to 58%. But the share of ethereum, on the contrary, is constantly growing, rising from 7.29% to 12.90%. ETH miners earned a record $17 million on September 01 due to the high demand for the blockchain of this project. Recall that the creator of ethereum, Vitalik Buterin, announced his blockchain as the basis for the operation of other cryptoservices this year, which aroused increased interest in this altcoin. However, returning to the events of the end of the last week, it should be noted that if the pair BTC/USD lost “only” 17%, the fall of ETH/USD at its peak exceeded 27%.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. As noted above, the ECB will need to start almost a war with the Fed in the area of monetary and fiscal policy in order to turn the pair down. Its outcome will depend on how far the EU and the US are prepared to go in their combat operations.
The forthcoming meeting of the ECB on Thursday, September 10, and the subsequent press conference of its head Christine Lagarde may give the market an idea of what potential the European regulator is ready to use in this war. Analysts at Bloomberg believe that the ECB could increase the program of emergency asset purchases by €350 billion by the end of 2020, and the volumes of other programs - by another €220 billion. Such expansion of European quantitative easing (QE), according to experts, is unlikely to benefit the banking system of the Old World (full of unclaimed money as is), but will be able to weaken the euro. The lower the cost of interbank borrowing goes, the greater the pressure on the common European currency will be.
However, it is not at all certain that the victory in this currency war will be on the side of Europe. According to a number of Reuters analysts, if the Fed continues to keep the interest rate close to zero, and the recovery of the Eurozone economy outstrips the recovery of the US economy, the EUR/USD rate may well rise to 1.2100.
In the meantime, the balance of power in the discussion of experts is the following: 50% of them expect that the pair will still be able to break through the support in the 1.1700 zone and go down at least another 100 points below. Another 30% of analysts believe it will move in the 1.1700-1.2010 trading range. And finally, the remaining 20%, supported by graphical analysis on D1, hope to see the pair storm the 1.2100 high by mid-September;

- GBP/USD. Just like the neighbors to the west and east - the US and the EU - one of the determining factors for the UK economy is overcoming the consequences of the COVID-19 crisis, and the measures that are being taken for this. The new Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rishi Sunak, who took office only this year, plans to roll back a series of stimulus measures as early as September, such as subsidies to restaurants. However, most likely, it will not have any strong influence on the British currency quotes. Moreover, the government intends to stick to plans for other QE programs for now.
The curtailment of the program for retaining employees on unpaid leave on October 31 may be much more significant for the market. Another important event is the EU Brexit Summit. But it will also take place only in mid-October, and a lot can change until then.
The majority of experts (60%) believe that the pound is already exhausted in its drive to the north, and the pair is waiting for a turn to the south. And, when moving from weekly to monthly forecast, the number of supporters of bears increases to 70%. The closest strong support is in the 1.3000 zone.
There is a red-gray-green multicolor among the technical indicators on H4, as in the case of EUR/USD. However, there is a noticeable advantage of the “green” ones on D1: there are 55% of those among oscillators and 80% among trend indicators.
As for the graphical analysis, it shows first the lateral movement of the pair in the corridor 1.3065-1.3385, then its drop to the zone 1.2900 and return to the level 1.3275. All of this can happen within the next 14 days. Further targets for the pair are 1.3480 and the 2019 high of 1.3515;

- USD/JPY. If you look at the chart, you can see that, starting from the last ten days of February, the pair has been gradually consolidating around 106.00. Experts do not see any serious reasons for its going beyond the trading range of 105.10-107.00 at the moment. However, when switching to the monthly forecast, 65% of analysts are inclined to favor the bears. And if their prediction turns out to be correct, the pair could drop to the July 31 low of 104.18. In case of breakdown of the upper border of the channel, the nearest resistance will be the level of 107.50, the next one - 108.15;

- cryptocurrencies. The consequences of the activities of the US Federal Reserve System were so serious that even the leaders of such payment giants as Visa started talking about Bitcoin. At the end of August, after the statement of the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, about the plans of his department, the DXY dollar index fell to a critically low level of 92.14. In response, Visa's Public Policy Director Andy Yee tweeted: “Jerome Powell's speech today will go down in history books. This is the first time I've seen such a small group steal so much from so many people. Save yourself with bitcoin."
However, it looks like the market is not yet ready to follow Mr. Yee's call. Most experts (60%) are inclined to believe that bitcoin may roll back to values below $10,000 in the near future. And, first of all, this will be associated with the restoration of investor interest in the dollar.
If bitcoin breaks through the $10,000 barrier, the pullback could drag on for months, according to analysts at financial company Crypterium. As a rule, the main coin feels uncertain in early autumn, but the drawdown gives a chance to start a new large-scale rally closer to the New Year.
The main forecast for the next week remains almost the same, with amendments of 500 points downwards: the BTC/USD pair will move along Pivot Point $10,500 with one-off emissions up to $9,000 south and up to $12,300 north.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/