Weekly Market Brief - by Trade View Investments

[Trade View Investments]

Trade View Investments is an Algorithmic Proprietary Trading Firm based in Melbourne, Australia.

www.tradeview.com.au

WEEKLY MARKET BRIEF - 02nd November 2015

Apologies for the late posting due to public holidays in Melbourne.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.

We may take multiple trades throughout the week and discuss in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.

Trade View has entered the weekend LIGHT NET SHORT.

FOREX


AUD.USD – 7134 ( - 82 or - 1.14% )


The AUD struggled last week moving lower on the expectation that the RBA might reduce rates on Melbourne Cup day. Let's wait and see if the RBA decides to cut.


If no action is taken and the AUD moves back higher we would like to see 7177 broken early in the week with a possible move towards the area between 7230 - 63. If the momentum continues strong then we could see a FULL FADE back up towards 7330.


For the AUD to continue lower then we would like to see an early break past 7050 before reaching 6996. 6996 will then need to be broken with a long down bar reaching 6957. Once this occurs then we could see 6893 tested.



EUR.USD – 11008 ( - 9 or - 0.008% )


The EUR needs went sideways with a little volatility during the week. Therefore our comments remain the same.


For the EUR to restart higher we would like to see an early break back above 11038 before reaching 11166. Dare I say it that if the upward momentum gets traction then we see a complete FADE back to 11315?


If the EUR continues lower then we would like to see a strong break and close past 10925 before we see 10780.


GBP.USD – 15427 ( + 116 or + 0.76% )


After last week's drop the GBP reversed the whole move in 2 days.


For the GBP to continue its run higher we would like to see an early break and close past our FICM level of 15458 before reaching 15533. If the upward momentum continues strong then we will be looking for the pair to reach 15591 before settling near 15644.


For the down move to restart then 15458 needs to become a solid level of resistance followed y a leg down through 15366. Once this level is broken we could see 15280 stand aside as the GBP reaches 15250.



USD.JPY – 12060 ( - 85 or - 0.70% )


Well, Well, Well. The USD could not get past our FICM level of 12151 with a high of 12150.8

POP ’n’ Drop and Drop ‘n’ POP all week.


Watch for the break. The two levels we are watching are: 12151 Upside, 11867 Downside.

ONCE AGAIN - Listen to and Watch the Markets, not the media.”


For the USD to restart its move higher we would like to see a strong break and close past

12151. Once this occurs then the levels we will be watching are: 12184, 12225, 12275 and 12332


For this pair to continue lower we would like to see 12064 continue to be a strong level of resistance. This could then lead to 11977 and back down to 11926 before reaching 11867 and then making its final decision. A strong break past 11867 will be discussed in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.


COMMODITIES


GOLD – 1142 ( - 22 or - 1.89% )


The GOLD rally lost all of its steam last week with the exception of Wednesday when we saw a 30 point ranging day before the down move continued. One thing to note is that the downside range has now been met.


For GOLD to move higher again we would like to see an early strong break and close past 1149 pushing towards the area between 1161 - 67. Once this occurs we would like to see another push towards 1178 - 80 before reviewing the move.



If the down move is not finished and we see another leg then a break past 1134 could see 1123 followed by 1111 before settling near 1103.


AUSTRALASIA


ASX – 5230 ( - 167 or - 3.09% )


The ASX struggled all week with all upside breaks sold down quickly.


For the upmove to restart we would like to see 5217 hold as a strong level of support before a move back past 5270 occurs. Once this is achieved then we need to see strong momentum break and close through a key levels of 5319 and 5366.


If last week's drop is the start of a new down move then we need to see a strong break past 5217 reaching 5150. Once this level is reached then we need to see a long down bar break and close past 5150 reaching 5095 before extending down to 5040.


EUROPE


DAX – 10822 ( + 2 or + 0.02% )


The DAX went sideways, so nothing to say here. Comments remain the same:


For the upmove to continue this week we would like to see a strong break and close past our FICM level of 10868. Once this occurs then we could see 10941 followed by 11080. Continued strong momentum could see the DAX push towards 11163 then 11257 and 11292 before it takes a breather.


For the down move to restart then 10868 needs to become a solid level of resistance before a push past 10793 and 10684. A break past 10684 could see the DAX near 10497 very quickly. If the momentum is strong then 10389 could bee seen before it settles near 10318.


US


S&P – 2080 ( + 9 or + 0.43% )


The S&P keeps pushing higher, but we are slightly cautious. Comments remain the same.


For the upward move to continue we would like to see an early break past 2085 before we see 2101 again. If the upward momentum is strong then we could see 2112 again, but we will be monitoring moves higher in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.


If the S&P fails to break above 2085 we could see a strong move back down towards the key area between 2050 - 46 again. This area will then need to be broken with a long down bar before reaching 2033, 2044 and finally 2010.

DISCLAIMER


The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, holding or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View Investments accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.


TRADE VIEW MAY CHANGE THE VIEW PRESENTED AT ANY TIME AND WILL NOT PUBLISH ANY UPDATE TO THAT EFFECT.


This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed.

 

[Trade View Investments]

Trade View Investments is an Algorithmic Proprietary Trading Firm based in Melbourne, Australia.

www.tradeview.com.au

WEEKLY MARKET BRIEF - 09th November 2015


This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.

We may take multiple trades throughout the week and discuss in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.

Trade View has entered the weekend LIGHT NET SHORT.


FOREX


AUD.USD – 7040 ( - 94 or - 1.32% )


The AUD tried to move higher early in the week with no success, breaking down on Friday.


For the AUD to move move back higher we would like to see 7050 before another push towards 7116 occurs. If the momentum is strong then we could see the AUD back to 7177 and possibly 7230.


For the AUD to continue lower then we would like to see an early break and close past a key level of 6996. Once this occurs we could see 6957 with a possible push testing 6893.


EUR.USD – 10737 ( - 271 or - 2.46% )


The EUR followed other majors down against the USD, taking an extra leg down on Friday.


For the EUR to restart higher we would like to see a strong hold above last weeks low of 10707

before bouncing back above 10780 reaching the area between 10899 - 10925.


If the EUR takes another leg down and continues lower then we would like to see a strong break and close past 10707 reaching 10590. Once this level is broken we could see 10452. If this level is broken we will discuss further downside moves in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.


GBP.USD – 15043 ( - 384 or - 2.49% )


The GBP also fell last week breaking past the lows of September.


For the GBP to restart a move back up we would like to see 14953 hold as a strong level of support before pushing past 15187 again. Once this occurs we would like to see a strong long up bar break and close past the area between 15250 - 89 before another attempt at getting back up to 15458.


For the down move to continue we would like to see 14953 reached. Once this occurs we would like to see a strong long down bar break and close past this level reaching 14812. If the momentum is strong then we could see 14699 reached before this pairs takes a breather.


USD.JPY – 12316 ( + 256 or + 2.12% )


USD STRENGTH, once the USDJPY broke above 12151 (which was the level it struggled with last week, POP and no drop.


For the USD to continue the strong push higher we would like to see a strong long up bar break and close past our key level of 12332. Once this occurs then we could see 12403 and possibly 12464 reached. If the momentum stays strong then 12558 could be in its sights.


For this pair to restart back down we would like to see 12332 act as a strong level of resistance before a move down past 12275 occurs reaching 12225 with the possibility of seeing 12184 and settling near 12151.


COMMODITIES


GOLD – 1089 ( - 53 or - 4.64% )


GOLD FELL OFF A CLIFF last week breaking through the lows of both September and October 2015. But has closed near the lows of July/August 2015. It will be an Interesting week for GOLD and the USD with the FED speaking on Thursday.


For GOLD to have any chance of moving back up we need to see it settle around this area with a possible low of 1069. Once this occurs we could see a sideways move before a push back up towards 1103. Any breaks above 1103 will be discussed on our website.


If the down move is not finished and we see another leg down then we need to see a break past 1069. This could then lead the metal down to 1043 and 1025 with the possibility of reaching 1005.



AUSTRALASIA


ASX – 5203 ( - 27 or - 0.52% )


The ASX was a little unclear on direction last week as we saw an early move higher then back down to our FICM level of 5150. We saw this level tested twice last week, therefore feel it will play an important role again this week. As the ASX has not moved much our comments will remain the same:


For the upmove to restart we would like to see 5217 hold as a strong level of support before a move back past 5270 occurs. Once this is achieved then we need to see strong momentum break and close through a key levels of 5319 and 5366.


If last week's drop is the start of a new down move then we need to see a strong break past 5217 reaching 5150. Once this level is reached then we need to see a long down bar break and close past 5150 reaching 5095 before extending down to 5040.


EUROPE


DAX – 11020 ( + 198 or + 1.83% )


The DAX moved higher breaking past the key area of 10868 early in the week but then had a couple of nervous moments coming back down to that level a number of times but then bounced higher closing above 11000.


If the DAX continues its strong momentum from last week then we would like to see a strong break past 11080 early in the week. Once this occurs then 11163 could just be a bystander as the DAX rallies towards the area between 11257 - 92. If the momentum is strong then we could see 11373 broken before reaching 11537. Now the DAX has been known to overextend its moves from time to time and if it occurs this time then 11619 could be on the cards.


For the down move to restart a strong move back down past 10868 could see the DAX near 10793 and 10684 again. A break past 10684 could see the DAX near 10497 very quickly. If the momentum is strong then 10389 could bee seen before it settles near 10318.


US


S&P – 2099 ( + 19 or + 0.91% )


Last week we said “The S&P keeps pushing higher, but we are slightly cautious”.

We saw that the S&P could break past 2112. This is the KEY level.


For the upward move to take another leg higher would like to see an early strong break and close past the Key level of 2112. If this occurs then the pusher higher could be very quick passing 2120, 2137 reaching 2148. If this level is broken then we will discuss further moves higher on our website.


If the S&P fails to break above 2112 then we would like to see an early break and close past 2087 - 76 before testing the key area between 2050 - 46 again. This area will then need to be broken with a long down bar before reaching 2033, 2044 and finally 2010.



DISCLAIMER

The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, holding or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View Investments accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.


TRADE VIEW MAY CHANGE THE VIEW PRESENTED AT ANY TIME AND WILL NOT PUBLISH ANY UPDATE TO THAT EFFECT.


This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed.

 

[Trade View Investments]

Trade View Investments is an Algorithmic Proprietary Trading Firm based in Melbourne, Australia.

www.tradeview.com.au

SOME OF OUR LEVELS REACHED IN LAST WEEK'S MARKET BRIEF

#DAX closed at 10679 which was only 5 points below our level of 10684

#SPX closed at 2017 which was only 7 points above our level of 2010

#USDJPY closed at 12260 which was only 15 points below our level of 12275

WEEKLY MARKET BRIEF - 16th November 2015


This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.


We may take multiple trades throughout the week and discuss in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.

Trade View has entered the weekend LIGHT NET SHORT.


FOREX


AUD.USD – 7126 ( + 86 or + 1.22% )


The AUD move back up retracing all of the down move on Friday the previous week


If the AUD moves back higher we would like to see 7177 broken early in the week with a possible move towards the area between 7230 - 63. If the momentum continues strong then we could see a FULL FADE back up towards 7330.


For the AUD to continue lower then we would like to see an early break past 7050 before reaching 6996. 6996 will then need to be broken with a long down bar reaching 6957. Once this occurs then we could see 6893 tested.


EUR.USD – 10769 ( +32 or + 0.30% )


While the markets moved all over the place, the EUR rotated sideways. Therefore our comments remain the same:


For the EUR to restart higher we would like to see a strong hold above last weeks low of 10707

before bouncing back above 10780 reaching the area between 10899 - 10925.


If the EUR takes another leg down and continues lower then we would like to see a strong break and close past 10707 reaching 10590. Once this level is broken we could see 10452. If this level is broken we will discuss further downside moves on our website.


GBP.USD – 15228 ( + 185 or + 1.23% )


The GBP bounced off of a Dime to retrace all of the down move on Friday the previous week.


For the GBP to continue its run higher we would like to see 15248 broken early in the week with a long up bar. Once this occurs then we could see 15364 followed by 15456 with a possible push towards 15532.


For the down move to take another leg down then we would like to see a long down bar break and close past 15139. If this occurs then we see 14950 as being the next level reached before settling near 14812.


USD.JPY – 12260 ( - 56 or - 0.45% )


The USD tried to push through a key level of 12333 but as the range was completed it came back down.


For the USD to continue the strong push higher we would like to see a strong long up bar break and close past our key level of 12332. Once this occurs then we could see 12403 and possibly 12464 reached. If the momentum stays strong then 12558 could be in its sights.


For this pair to restart back down we would like to see 12275 act as a strong level of resistance before a move down past 12225 occurs reaching 12184 before settling near 12151.



AUSTRALASIA


ASX – 4990 ( - 213 or - 4.09% )

This week we saw the ASX make its decision, one big long down bar through 5150 set the tone for a 4%+ down move. one thing to note is that we are now at the bottom of the Standard deviation channel. Look for a POP higher early.


For the upmove to restart we would like to see 4976 hold as a strong level of support before a strong move back up reaching 5040. Once this occurs then 5095 could be seen. The momentum will need to remain strong for the ASX to reach 5150 again. This level will once again play an important role moving forward.


For the downside move to continue we would like to see an early long down bar break past 4976 before pushing past 4922 to reach 4863. Once this is reached we could see some form of support but if not and the ASX has had enough then expect 4754 to be reached.


EUROPE


DAX – 10679 ( - 341 or - 3.09% )


The DAX tried to stay above 10868 and lead but this time the rest of the world markets dictated the move back down past this level.

For the upmove to restart we would like to see an early break past 10793 before testing 10868. This will then need a strong break and close past our FICM level of 10868. Once this occurs then we could see 10941 followed by 11080. Continued strong momentum could see the DAX push towards 11163 then 11257 and 11292 before it takes a breather.


If last week was the start of a strong continued down move then an early break down could see the DAX near 10497 very quickly. If the momentum is strong then 10389 could bee seen before it settles near 10318. If the move becomes aggressive then the levels we will be watching closely are 10258, 10146, 10075 - 35.


US


S&P – 2017 ( - 82 or - 3.91% )


2 weeks ago we said “The S&P keeps pushing higher, but we are slightly cautious”.

And our caution was rewarded. It came back down with a thud.


For the upward move to restart we need to see the area between 2010 - 15 hold as a strong level of support before a bounce back up past 2046 can occur. A strong long up bar break past this area could see 2076 and 2087 again.


A long down bar break and close past the 2015 - 10 area could see some very aggressive panic selling reaching 1990 and 1981. If this is not enough for the short sellers then look out for 1972 with an (dare I say it) overextension towards 1947?



COMMODITIES


GOLD – 1083 ( - 6 or - 0.45% )


GOLD has settled near the ows of July/August 2015. Lets see for how long.


For GOLD to have any chance of moving back up we need to see it settle around this area with a possible low of 1069. Once this occurs we could see a sideways move before a push back up towards 1103. Any breaks above 1103 will be discussed on our website.


If the down move is not finished and we see another leg down then we need to see a break past 1069. This could then lead the metal down to 1043 and 1025 with the possibility of reaching 1005.


DISCLAIMER

The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, holding or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View Investments accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.


TRADE VIEW MAY CHANGE THE VIEW PRESENTED AT ANY TIME AND WILL NOT PUBLISH ANY UPDATE TO THAT EFFECT.


This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed.

 

[Trade View Investments]

Trade View Investments is an Algorithmic Proprietary Trading Firm based in Melbourne, Australia.

www.tradeview.com.au

WEEKLY MARKET BRIEF - 23rd November 2015

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.


We may take multiple trades throughout the week and discuss in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.

Trade View has entered the weekend LIGHT NET LONG.


FOREX


AUD.USD – 7236 ( + 110 or + 1.54% )


After a slow start the AUD move higher for the week.


If the AUD is to take another leg higher we would like to see another strong break and close past 7297 before reaching 7330. Once this is broken then we could see an attempt at breaking 7407.


If the AUD cannot break past 7297 then a move back down past 7171 could see 7116 quickly. A strong break past 7116 will see the AUD near 7052 and possibly 6997.


EUR.USD – 10646 ( - 123 or - 1.14% )


The EUR is losing it's appeal and the main reason is that the ECB is continuing QE and the FED is talking rate rise.


For the EUR to restart higher we would like to see a move back up above 10780 reaching the area between 10899 - 10925.


For the EUR to take another leg down we would like to see a strong break past 10590 before reaching 10452. Once this occurs then 10283 will not be too far away.


GBP.USD – 15189 ( - 39 or - 0.26% )


The GBP rallied early in the week breaking past 15248 but then retraced the whole move and more the next day to close slightly lower for the week. Therefore comments remain the same:


For the GBP to continue its run higher we would like to see 15248 broken early in the week with a long up bar. Once this occurs then we could see 15364 followed by 15456 with a possible push towards 15532.


For the down move to take another leg down then we would like to see a long down bar break and close past 15139. If this occurs then we see 14950 as being the next level reached before settling near 14812.


USD.JPY – 12277 ( + 17 or + 0.14% )


The USD tried to push through our key level of 12333 again, but struggled and came back down. Therefore comments remain the same:


For the USD to continue the strong push higher we would like to see a strong long up bar break and close past our key level of 12332. Once this occurs then we could see 12403 and possibly 12464 reached. If the momentum stays strong then 12558 could be in its sights.


For this pair to restart back down we would like to see 12275 act as a strong level of resistance before a move down past 12225 occurs reaching 12184 before settling near 12151.


COMMODITIES


GOLD – 1077 ( - 6 or - 0.55% )


GOLD has settled near the ows of July/August 2015. Lets see for how long. Therefore comments remain the same:


For GOLD to have any chance of moving back up we need to see it settle around this area with a possible low of 1069. Once this occurs we could see a sideways move before a push back up towards 1103. Any breaks above 1103 will be discussed on our website.


If the down move is not finished and we see another leg down then we need to see a break past 1069. This could then lead the metal down to 1043 and 1025 with the possibility of reaching 1005.



AUSTRALASIA


ASX – 5254 ( + 264 or + 5.29% )


Last week we said “The thing to note is that we are now at the bottom of the Standard deviation channel. Look for a POP higher early.” and it did not disappoint.

The ASX bounced off the bottom of the Standard Deviation Channel to push higher. It continued for the rest of the week closing over 5% up.


For the upmove to continue strong we would like to see an early break back above 5270 reaching the area between 5312 - 30. Once this is reached we could see a move towards 5365. The next real test for the ASX will come at 5418 where we will need to see a strong long up bar break and close before reaching the area between 5440 - 62.


If the ASX has made its run and we see a downside move then the area between 5312 - 30 needs to hold as a strong level of resistance before another break back down past 5217 reaching 5150. If 5150 is broken then 5095 could be seen.


EUROPE


DAX – 11103 ( + 424 or + 3.97% )


The DAX opened lower after the weekend but then…..off like a rocket.

For the upmove to continue we would like to see 11080 hold as a strong level of support before a push past 11163 occurs. This could lead the DAX towards 11157 and possibly 11373. If the momentum continues strong then we could see a push past 11537 towards 11621. As the DAX tends to overextend its moves then we will also be watching for a move towards 11840.


For the down move to restart then the DAX will need to break past 11080 and 10941 early in the week reaching the key level of 10866. This level will then need to be broken with a long down bar before pushing towards 10793 and 10684.


US


S&P – 2091 ( + 74 or + 3.67% )


After a sharp move lower in the previous week our systems quickly reversed to NET long with a solid rally in the S&P.


For the upward move to continue and start another leg higher we would like to see 2101 broken early in the week reaching 2112. 2112 will then need to be broken with a strong long up bar before reaching the area between 2120 - 26. Once this occurs look for a test of the ATH’s @ 2135.


If the S&P cannot get past 2112 again then a push lower past 2076 could see a repeat of the previous week testing the key area between 2050 - 46 again. This area will then need to be broken with a long down bar before reaching 2033, 2044 and finally 2010.


DISCLAIMER

The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, holding or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View Investments accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.


TRADE VIEW MAY CHANGE THE VIEW PRESENTED AT ANY TIME AND WILL NOT PUBLISH ANY UPDATE TO THAT EFFECT.


This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed.

 

[Trade View Investments]

Trade View Investments is an Algorithmic Proprietary Trading Firm based in Melbourne, Australia.

www.tradeview.com.au

SOME OF OUR LEVELS REACHED IN LAST WEEK'S MARKET BRIEF

#DAX reached a high of 11367 which was on 6 points below our level of 11373.

#EURUSD closed at 10592 which was only 2 points higher than our level of 10590


WEEKLY MARKET BRIEF - 30th November 2015

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.



We may take multiple trades throughout the week and discuss in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.

Trade View has entered the weekend LIGHT NET LONG.


FOREX


AUD.USD – 7191 ( - 45 or - 0.62% )


The AUD rallies are short lived lately and last week was no exception closing slightly lower. Therefore our comments remain the same:


If the AUD is to take another leg higher we would like to see another strong break and close past 7297 before reaching 7330. Once this is broken then we could see an attempt at breaking 7407.


If the AUD cannot break past 7297 then a move back down past 7171 could see 7116 quickly. A strong break past 7116 will see the AUD near 7052 and possibly 6997.


EUR.USD – 10592 ( - 54 or - 0.51% )


It was like a slow grind down for the EUR last week, “it’s losing appeal and the main reason is that the ECB is continuing QE and the FED is talking rate rise.”


For the EUR to restart higher we would like to see a move back up above 10780 reaching the area between 10899 - 10925.


For the EUR to take another leg down we would like to see a strong break past 10590 before reaching 10452. Once this occurs then 10283 will not be too far away.


GBP.USD – 15031 ( - 158 or - 1.04% )


The GBP’S rallies are short live just like the AUD’s.


For the GBP to restart its move higher we would like to see an early break back above 10616 before pushing towards 15187. Once this occurs 15248 comes into play, this will then need to be broken with a long up bar before reaching 15289.


For the down move to take another leg down then we would like to see 15061 become a strong level of resistance before a push down towards 14950 occurs. If the momentum is strong past this level 14812 could be next on the cards.


USD.JPY – 12279 ( + 2 or + 0.02% )


A sideways move for the USD, therefore our comments remain the same:


For the USD to continue the strong push higher we would like to see a strong long up bar break and close past our key level of 12332. Once this occurs then we could see 12403 and possibly 12464 reached. If the momentum stays strong then 12558 could be in its sights.


For this pair to restart back down we would like to see 12275 act as a strong level of resistance before a move down past 12225 occurs reaching 12184 before settling near 12151.



AUSTRALASIA


ASX – 5202 ( - 52 or - 0.99% )


After a nice move the previous week, the ASX took a breather last week to close slightly lower. Therefore our comments remain the same:


For the upmove to continue strong we would like to see an early break back above 5270 reaching the area between 5312 - 30. Once this is reached we could see a move towards 5365. The next real test for the ASX will come at 5418 where we will need to see a strong long up bar break and close before reaching the area between 5440 - 62.


If the ASX has made its run and we see a downside move then the area between 5312 - 30 needs to hold as a strong level of resistance before another break back down past 5217 reaching 5150. If 5150 is broken then 5095 could be seen.


EUROPE


DAX – 11293 ( + 190 or - 1.71% )


After a slow start the DAX regained its composure pushing through the previous highs of 11163 to close just below 11300.


For the upmove to continue we would like to see an early break and close past 11373 before seeing a big push towards 11537 and then 11621. As the DAX tends to overextend its moves then we will also be watching for a move towards 11840.


For the down move to restart then the DAX will need to break past 11163 before reaching 11080 and 10941 early in the week reaching the key level of 10866. This level will then need to be broken with a long down bar before pushing towards 10793 and 10684.


US


S&P – 2092 ( + 1 or + 0.05% )


Basically the S&P took a breather. Therefore our comments remain the same:


For the upward move to continue and start another leg higher we would like to see 2101 broken early in the week reaching 2112. 2112 will then need to be broken with a strong long up bar before reaching the area between 2120 - 26. Once this occurs look for a test of the ATH’s @ 2135.


If the S&P cannot get past 2112 again then a push lower past 2076 could see a repeat of the previous week testing the key area between 2050 - 46 again. This area will then need to be broken with a long down bar before reaching 2033, 2044 and finally 2010.

COMMODITIES


GOLD – 1057 ( - 20 or - 1.86% )


“GOLD has settled near the ows of July/August 2015. Lets see for how long” Not for Long.


For GOLD to have any chance of moving back up we need to see it bounce straight back up early past 1069. Once this occurs then 1091 will be the next target before a push back up towards 1103. Any breaks above 1103 will be discussed on our website.


If Friday’s move was the first part of the new leg down then 1069 needs to become a strong level of resistance before we see 1043 and 1025 with the possibility of extending its reach towards 1005.


DISCLAIMER

The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, holding or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View Investments accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.


TRADE VIEW MAY CHANGE THE VIEW PRESENTED AT ANY TIME AND WILL NOT PUBLISH ANY UPDATE TO THAT EFFECT.


This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed.

 

[Trade View Investments]

Trade View Investments is an Algorithmic Proprietary Trading Firm based in Melbourne, Australia.
www.tradeview.com.au

WEEKLY MARKET BRIEF - 07th December 2015

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.


We may take multiple trades throughout the week and discuss in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.


Trade View has entered the weekend LIGHT NET LONG.


FOREX


AUD.USD – 7335 ( + 144 or + 2.00% )


The ASX took a bid last week to move up nicely and stay up.


If the AUD is to take another leg higher we would like to see 7297 hold as a strong level of support before a push towards 7407 occurs. Once this level is broken we could see this pair near 7494 very quickly.


If the AUD cannot stay above 7297 then 7263 and 7230 could be bystanders as the AUD break down reaching 7171 and 7116 quickly.


EUR.USD – 10877 ( + 285 or + 2.69% )


POP, no increase in QE from the ECB and we are off.


For the EUR to continue higher we would like to see 10758 hold as a strong level of support before a long up bar break and close past 10924 occurs. If the momentum is strong then 11038 could be seen before another push higher towards 11166 occurs.


If last week's move was just a once off then for the EUR to take a leg back down we would like to see a strong break and close past 10758 before a quick move back down to 10590 and 10452 occurs.


GBP.USD – 15102 ( + 71 or + 0.47% )


A bit of a Chop, Chop scenario for the cable traders last week with the pair moving lower early in the week followed by a strong move back up.


For the GBP to continue a move higher then we would like to see a strong break past 15187 reaching 15248. Once this level is reached then we will need to see a strong long up bar break and close past 15308 before the next push higher.


For the longer term down move to continue we would like to see 15061 broken early in the week reaching 14953. Once this level is also broken we could see the pair near 14812.


USD.JPY – 12310 ( + 31 or + 0.25% )


Another sideways move for the USD with a slight move higher, therefore our comments remain the same:


For the USD to continue the strong push higher we would like to see a strong long up bar break and close past our key level of 12332. Once this occurs then we could see 12403 and possibly 12464 reached. If the momentum stays strong then 12558 could be in its sights.


For this pair to restart back down we would like to see 12275 act as a strong level of resistance before a move down past 12225 occurs reaching 12184 before settling near 12151.



AUSTRALASIA


ASX – 5179 ( - 23 or - 0.44% )


An early move up followed by a down move enabled the ASX top close pretty flat last week. Therefore our comments remain the same:


For the upmove to continue strong we would like to see an early break back above 5270 reaching the area between 5312 - 30. Once this is reached we could see a move towards 5365. The next real test for the ASX will come at 5418 where we will need to see a strong long up bar break and close before reaching the area between 5440 - 62.


If the ASX has made its run and we see a downside move then the area between 5312 - 30 needs to hold as a strong level of resistance before another break back down past 5217 reaching 5150. If 5150 is broken then 5095 could be seen.


EUROPE


DAX – 10862 ( - 431 or - 3.82% )


The DAX took a bit of a hit last week falling over 4%. We will be watchog for leads from this market moving forward.


For the upmove to continue we would like to see 10867 hold as a strong level of support before another push up towards 10941. Once this level is broken then 11080 could be reached. If the momentum is strong then the DAX could potentially fade all the way back up through to the area between 11257 - 92. Once this area is broken we could see the DAX near 11373.


For the down move to restart then 10867 needs to be hard to break. If this occurs then we could see 10793 and 10684 very quickly. If the momentum is strong and we see a long down bar break past 10684 then 10497 will not be far away.


US


S&P – 2090 ( - 2 or - 0.10% )


A little shake out and back to flat. Therefore our comments remain the same:


For the upward move to continue and start another leg higher we would like to see 2101 broken early in the week reaching 2112. 2112 will then need to be broken with a strong long up bar before reaching the area between 2120 - 26. Once this occurs look for a test of the ATH’s @ 2135.


If the S&P cannot get past 2112 again then a push lower past 2076 could see a repeat of the previous week testing the key area between 2050 - 46 again. This area will then need to be broken with a long down bar before reaching 2033, 2044 and finally 2010.


COMMODITIES


GOLD – 1086 ( + 29 or + 2.74% )


A bit of a shake out last week before a POP.


For GOLD to continue higher we need to see 1069 hold as a strong level of support before another attempt at breaking past 1091. Once this is broken then we could see 1103. Any breaks above 1103 will be discussed on our website.


If the longer term down move is to restart then 1069 needs to be broken early before we see 1043 and 1025 with the possibility of extending its reach towards 1005.


DISCLAIMER

The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, holding or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View Investments accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.


TRADE VIEW MAY CHANGE THE VIEW PRESENTED AT ANY TIME AND WILL NOT PUBLISH ANY UPDATE TO THAT EFFECT.


This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed.

 

[Trade View Investments]

Trade View Investments is an Algorithmic Proprietary Trading Firm based in Melbourne, Australia.

www.tradeview.com.au

SOME OF OUR LEVELS REACHED IN LAST WEEK'S MARKET BRIEF

#SPX closed at 2010 which was our level mentioned last week.

WEEKLY MARKET BRIEF - 14th December 2015

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.



We may take multiple trades throughout the week and discuss in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.

Trade View has entered the weekend LIGHT NET LONG.

FOREX


AUD.USD – 7185 ( - 150 or - 2.04% )


The AUD bounced between 7330 and 7171 last week with no clear direction.


If the AUD is to move higher we would like to see 7177 hold as a strong level of support before a push back past 7230 and 7263 occurs. This could then lead to 7297. 7297 needs to be broken with a long up bar before reaching 7330. If the momentum is strong then 7407 could be seen.


If the AUD cannot stay above 7177 for long we could see 7159 followed by 7116 quickly. This could then lead the pair down towards 7050 and possibly 6996.


EUR.USD – 10922 ( + 115 or + 1.06% )


The EUR moved up ever so slightly.


For the EUR to continue higher we would like to see 10899 hold as a strong level of support before another attempt at breaking past 11038 occurs. If the momentum is strong then 11166 could be seen before another push higher towards 11315 occurs.


If the EUR cannot stay above 10899 then a break past this level could see 10758 quickly. If we see a long down bar break and close past 10758 then the EUR could be back down near 10590 again.


GBP.USD – 15220 ( + 118 or + 0.78% )


Another Chop, Chop scenario for the cable traders last week with the pair repeating the move lower early in the week followed by a strong move back up.


For the GBP to continue a move higher, we would like to see a strong break past 15250 reaching 15308. Once this level is reached then we will need to see a strong long up bar break and close past 15308 before the next push higher towards 15342. If the momentum continues strong then we could see 15463.


For the GBP cannot break past 15308 then a move down could be seen if 15187 is broken early which could see 15061. Once this occurs then we would like to see another long bar break down past 15061 reaching 14953.


USD.JPY – 12095 ( - 215 or - 1.75% )


No love for the USD last week. We have a bit of a scenario here.

1 - Strength in the JPY indicates weak markets

2 - The markets are almost saying that if the Fed raises rates then the markets will go down and the USD will go down.


Oops, not sure if the FED saw this happening. Only Time will tell.

Either way will will be prepared for any move.


For the USD to restart the move higher then we would like to see 12062 hold as a strong level of support before breaking past 12151. If the momentum is strong then the levels we will watch are:

12184, 12225, 12275 before it settles near 12332.


For this pair to continue lower we would like to see 12062 broken early in the week with a long down bar pushing through 12011,11977, 11945 reaching 11925. Once 11925 is broken then we will be watching 11864 for the next move by this pair.


COMMODITIES


GOLD – 1074 ( - 12 or - 1.10% )


A sideways move by GOLD. Therefore comments remain the same


For GOLD to continue higher we need to see 1069 hold as a strong level of support before another attempt at breaking past 1091. Once this is broken then we could see 1103. Any breaks above 1103 will be discussed in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.


If the longer term down move is to restart then 1069 needs to be broken early before we see 1043 and 1025 with the possibility of extending its reach towards 1005.



AUSTRALASIA


ASX – 4943 ( - 236 or - 4.56% )


The ASX looked like it wanted to rally on open last week but could not hold the momentum. It then quickly reversed from upward momentum to a downside collapse as the ASX fell over 4.5% for the week.


For the upmove to regain its composure and restart then we would like to see 4922 hold as a strong level of support before reaching 4976. A break past 4976 could see 5045 and 5095 very quickly with a final push back towards 5150 where the ASX might take a short breather.


If the ASX has not finished its heavy move down then an early break past 4922 could see a strong push down towards the area between 4863 - 32 which would mathematically reach the range set back in Oct - Nov 2015. However if the downward momentum is strong then we could see an overextension towards 4754.


EUROPE


DAX – 10272 ( - 590 or - 5.43% )


The DAX took a another hit last week falling over 5%. That is 2 weeks in a row, we will be watching for leads from this market moving forward.

NOTE: BE PREPARED FOR A POSSIBLE AN AGGRESSIVE SNAP BACK UP


For the upmove to restart we would like to see a strong long up bar break and close back above 10319. Once this occurs the push up could be strong towards 10389 and 10497 before extending to 10684. Once this level is broken and if the momentum is still strong then 10793 and possibly 10868 could be seen.


For the down move to take a new leg down then 10319 needs to become a solid level of resistance before another attempt at breaking through 10258 is made which will see the DAX down towards 10146, 10073, 35 and finally reaching 9896. Now be careful the DAX has been known to overextend so we will also be watching 9829 and 9744.


US


S&P – 2009 ( - 81 or - 3.88% )


With no more FED buying the markets are starting to get a little nervous. We will be cautiously watching for further signs of disruption in the coming week with the FED rate decision.


For the upward move to restart we would like to see 2010 hold as a strong level of support before another break up past 2015 towards 2024 and 2033. If the upward momentum is strong then we could see the S&P back up near 2048. Any break past this level will be discussed by our traders in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.


If the S&P cannot get past 2015 again, then a push lower could see 1990 quickly. This will actually complete the range set in Oct-Nov 2015. But if the downward momentum remains strong then we would like to see a long down bar break and close past 1981 before we see a strong push past 1972 towards 1947.



DISCLAIMER

The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, holding or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View Investments accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.


TRADE VIEW MAY CHANGE THE VIEW PRESENTED AT ANY TIME AND WILL NOT PUBLISH ANY UPDATE TO THAT EFFECT.


This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed.

 

[Trade View Investments]

Trade View Investments is an Algorithmic Proprietary Trading Firm based in Melbourne, Australia.

www.tradeview.com.au

INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 4919 ( -133 or -2.63% )

Markets go up, markets go down. We saw some strong moves to the downside in the ASX last week and the question remains- do we go higher or lower from here?

Last week we covered the ASX in our LIVE CHAT ROOM informing members of bigger moves down.

NOTE: This week it is Chinese New Year. Chinese stock markets will be closed all week so impact from China is likely to be negligible.

VOLATILITY ALERT: Stevens speaking on Friday (pre-market).

For a continued move higher we would like to see a strong break and close of 4997. Should this occur we could see a strong move into 5090 before a pause. If momentum is strong we could see further upside into 5126 an 5161.

If we fail to break above 4997, we are likely to retest 4890. A break below may result in a move down to 4820, and further breaks lower could see the ASX test 4782 and 4747 before a pause. A break and close below 4747 could see the ASX move lower into 4712.



EUROPE
DAX – 9258 ( -562 or -5.72% )

Last week we saw another strong move down on the DAX and we are now testing some very crucial levels. Very little data this week so markets will be sentiment driven.

For a sustained move to the upside we would like to see 9248 hold as support and see a strong close back above 9386. If momentum to the upside remains strong we could see a fast move up to 9620 and 9733 before a break.

On the downside we are watching for a break and close below 9248. A strong break and close below this level could extend the DAX down to 9092. Further breaks below this level could see the DAX head to 9016. If momentum remains strong we could see a very quick move to 8890 before a pause.



US
SP500 – 1880 ( -57 or -2.94% )

Like other indices the S&P retraced all of its gains made from the week prior and closed near the lows of the week at our important 1879 level. We alerted everyone to last week’s Job numbers and this was the key event for the week.

VOLATILITY ALERT: Yellen testifying on Wednesday and Thursday.

For a sustained move higher we would first like to see a strong break and close above 1902, followed by another strong break above 1915. Should this occur we will be looking for a move 1958 before a pause. A break of 1958 would like result in a move into 1969, and a strong break of 1969 could see a fast move to 1990.

Should the S&P fail to break above 1902, we will be looking for a retest of 1875. A strong break and close below 1875 may see the S&P move down into 1853 before a pause. If momentum remains strong to the downside, moves into 1834 and 1821-1817 are probable. A further break and close below 1821 could get things moving quickly into 1809 and 1772.



FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.7065 ( -18 or -0.25% )

After a strong move higher last week we saw the AUD reverse sharply off our 0.7229 – 0.7236 level mentioned last week, to finish basically flat for the week. Our comments remain unchanged

VOLATILITY ALERT: Stevens speaking on Friday (pre-market).

For a move higher we would first like to see the AUD hold 0.7014, followed by a strong break back above 0.7113. A break above could see us test 0.7197, and if the move up remains strong we will look for 0.7229 – 0.7236 before a pause.

If the AUD breaks back below 0.7014, we may likely see a move back down into 0.6997. A strong break below 0.6997 could see us move back down into 0.6958 and 0.6934. Should the move to the downside remain very strong we will look for a retest of 0.6830.



EUR/USD – 1.1157 ( +328 or +3.03% )

Our comments from last week:

“We will eventually break out of this tight range and when we do the move could be explosive so BE PREPARED.”

For a sustained move higher we would now like to see 1.1117 hold as support and a strong break and close above 1.1248. A strong break and close above this level would see a move into 1.1313. If momentum to the upside remains strong we could see a fast move into 1.1453.

If 1.1117 fails to hold we will look for a move back down to 1.1033. A break of 1.1033 may likely see the EURO trade down to 1.0977 before a pause. Should the downside move persist we could see the EURO trade all the way down to 1.0897 before a pause.



GBP/USD – 1.4243 ( +256 or +1.8% )

Our members were alerted to this recent bottom in the GBP weeks ago. We also posted some great trades over the last week in ourMEMBER PORTAL.

For a move to the upside we would like to see 1.4469 hold as support, followed by a break of 1.4635. A break of 1.4635 could see a move higher into 1.4790, and should momentum remain strong to the upside we may see the GBP rally to 1.4877 – 1.4896 before a pause.

On the downside a strong break and close below 1.4469 could see a move back down to 1.4382. A break below this level would see a move into 1.4223 and 1.4194 before a pause. Should we see continued strength to the downside we could see a very sharp move into 1.4039



USD/JPY – 116.82 ( -430 or -3.55% )

How quickly markets change! The “surprise” BoJ negative rates announcement has now been completely faded as the USD/JPY sold off heavily last week. Given the market has faded this move we will begin to see the real impact of the BoJ’s monetary policy.

For this move to the upside to continue, we would like to see 116.08 hold followed by a strong break and close above 117.48. Should this occur we will look for a move higher into 118.24 before a pause. A break of 118.24 could see quick moves into 118.48 and 118.84, and if momentum remains strong a move into 119.20 is probable.

If the USD/JPY breaks below 116.08 we could see a sharp and fast move down into 115.53. A strong break and close below 115.53 may see a move into 114.57 and finally 114.08 before a pause.



COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1118 ( +55 or +4.92% )

GOLD has taken off as the safe haven play mentioned last week, rallying all the way to our 1170 level.

For a continued move to the upside we would first like to see GOLD hold above 1160, followed by a break and close above 1181. A strong break and close above 1181 could see a move into 1187 and if momentum is very strong we see a very fast move into 1206.

On the downside, a break below 1160 would likely result in a move back down to 1146. A strong break and close below this level would result in a move to 1139 and if momentum is very strong the next level we are watching is 1126.


DISCLAIMER

The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, holding or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View Investments accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.


TRADE VIEW MAY CHANGE THE VIEW PRESENTED AT ANY TIME AND WILL NOT PUBLISH ANY UPDATE TO THAT EFFECT.


This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed.

 

[Trade View Investments]

Trade View Investments is an Algorithmic Proprietary Trading Firm based in Melbourne, Australia.

www.tradeview.com.au


INDICES

AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 4839 ( -80 or -1.63% )

The ASX again broke through the August 2015 lows last week and is undoubtedly testing the resolve of long-term bulls.

VOLATILITY ALERT: RBA Minutes on Tuesday, Employment numbers on Thursday.

For a continued moved higher we would now like to see a strong break and close above 4844 on our way to 4873. Should this occur we would likely see a move into 4890, and further breaks higher could lead to 4938 before a pause. If momentum is strong we could see a move back up into 4997, and should we continue to rally we could see a strong move to 5090.

If we fail to break above 4873, we are likely to retest 4782. A break below may result in a move back down to 4747 followed by 4712. Should we see a strong break and close below 4712 we could see a fast and sharp move down to 4618.



EUROPE
DAX – 8989 ( -269 or -2.91% )

Last week, we alerted members in our LIVE CHAT ROOM that some of our models were pointing to a potential bottom in the DAX. Have we seen this already?

VOLATILITY ALERT: Draghi speaking on Monday.

For a move to the upside we would like to see 8890 hold as support followed by a strong break and close above 9092. Additional breaks higher would likely result in a move to 9135; and if momentum is strong we could see a move into 9291, 9322 and 9386 before a pause. Should a complete V-reversal scenario ensues we may see a move all the way back up to 9620.

On the downside we are watching for a break and close below 8890. A strong break and close below this level could send the DAX back down to 8681 and 8625 before a pause. If momentum is strong, a break and close below 8625 could see a sharp move down to 8401 and if there is no stopping the DAX to the downside, we could see a very fast move into 8286.



US
SP500 – 1863 ( -17 or -0.9% )

A volatile week for the S&P saw it finish slightly down following a rally on Friday.

NOTE: Monday is a public holiday in the US- President’s Day.

For a sustained move higher we would first like to see a strong break and close above 1875, followed by another strong break above 1902. Should this occur we will look for a move back up into 1915, and if momentum remains strong we may see 1958 before a pause.

Should the S&P fail to break above 1875 we may see the S&P move back down to retest 1853. A break below this level may again result in moves into 1834 and 1821-1817. Continued breaks below 18 would again see us retest 1809, and if momentum remains strong we could see 1772 and 1745.



FOREX

AUD/USD – 0.7105 ( +40 or +0.57% )

The AUD was for the most part sideways last week and so our comments remain unchanged.

VOLATILITY ALERT: RBA Minutes on Tuesday, Employment numbers on Thursday.

For a move higher we would first like to see the AUD hold 0.7014, followed by a strong break back above 0.7113. A break above could see us test 0.7197, and if the move to the upside remains strong we will look for 0.7229 – 0.7236 before a pause.

If the AUD breaks back below 0.7014, we may likely see a move back down into 0.6997. A strong break below 0.6997 could see us move back down into 0.6958 and 0.6934. Should the move to the downside remain very strong we will look for a retest of 0.6830. A break below this could see the AUD in a fast move down to 0.6778.



EUR/USD – 1.1255 ( +98 or +0.88% )

Last week we saw the EURO reach one of our resistance levels but was not able to strongly break through, before closing for the week very close to our 1.1248 level! You can see this in more detail in our MEMBER PORTAL.

VOLATILITY ALERT: Draghi speaking on Monday.

For a sustained move higher we would now like to see a strong break above 1.1347. A break and close above this level could result in a fast move to 1.1453, and a break above this level could see 1.1492 before a pause.

On the downside, a break below 1.1248 may result in a move back down into 1.1163 and 1.1117. A strong break and close below this level may see the EURO trade down to 1.1033 – 1.1026, and if momentum remains strong to the downside we could head back down to 1.0977.



GBP/USD – 1.4504 ( +5 or +0.03% )

Sideways and chop. Cable closed pretty much where it opened for the week. As such our comments remain unchanged.

VOLATILITY ALERT: CPI on Tuesday, Employment numbers on Wednesday

For a move to the upside we would like to see 1.4469 hold as support, followed by a break of 1.4635. A break of 1.4635 could see a move higher into 1.4790, and should momentum remain strong to the upside we may see the GBP rally to 1.4877 – 1.4896 before a pause.

On the downside a strong break and close below 1.4469 could see a move back down to 1.4382. A break below this level would see a move into 1.4223 and 1.4194 before a pause. Should we see continued strength to the downside we could see a very sharp move into 1.4039.



USD/JPY – 113.21 ( -361 or -3.09% )

What a week it was for the USD/JPY. These markets have spoken and it appears they do not approve of the BoJ’s latest “Yentervention”.

VOLATILITY ALERT: GDP, Manufacturing and Trade Balance numbers this week.

For a move to be sustained on the upside we would like to see a strong close above 113.88, followed by another strong break and close above 114.08. A strong break and close of 114.08 may result in a move into 114.57, and if upside momentum persists we may see quick moves into 115.53 and 116.08.

If the USD/JPY cannot close above 113.88, we could see continued weakness with a move back down into 111.73. A break below this level may then result in a retest of 111.09. Should we see a strong break below 111.09 we could see a fast and sharp move all the way down to 109.94



COMMODITIES

GOLD – 1237 ( +64 or +5.46% )

The GOLD bugs are officially back in town. A blowoff move on Thursday saw GOLD break all kinds of levels and rocket to the upside. We have now seen GOLD rally into an important level and will again be watching this market closely in the MEMBER PORTAL.

For a continued move to the upside we would first like to see 1222 hold, followed by a strong break and close above 1247. A break above 1247 may result in a retest of 1258, and if momentum remains very strong we could see a final push into 1276 before a pause.

For a sustained move to the downside we would like to see GOLD break and close below 1222. A strong break below this level could result in a move back down to 1206; and should we see a complete fade of last week’s move we may see GOLD trade back down to 1187 and 1181.


DISCLAIMER

The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, holding or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View Investments accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.

TRADE VIEW MAY CHANGE THE VIEW PRESENTED AT ANY TIME AND WILL NOT PUBLISH ANY UPDATE TO THAT EFFECT.

This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed.

 

[Trade View Investments]

Trade View Investments is an Algorithmic Proprietary Trading Firm based in Melbourne, Australia.
www.tradeview.com.au

INDICES
AUSTRALASIA

ASX - 4957 ( +118 or +2.44% )

Last week we saw worse than expected Employment numbers and guess what? The ASX rallied, right into our 4997 - 5021 levels before falling off late in the week.

For a continued moved higher we would now like to see 4921 hold as support followed by a retest of 4997. A strong break and close above 4997 could see a move to 5021, and a strong break and close above this could see the ASX rally to to 5090 before another pause. Should momentum remain strong to the upside, we could see a move back up to 5161.

Should we fail to close above 4997, we will be watching for a move back down to 4890. A break below this may result in a move to 4859 and 4844 before a pause. Should momentum remain strong to the downside, we may see moves back down into 4782 and 4766. Subsequent breaks below these levels could result in sharp moves back down to 4712 and 4618.


EUROPE

DAX - 9375 ( +386 or +4.29% )

The DAX also rallied as we previously alerted too before closing for the week near our 9386 level. We spoke about this real-time in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.

For a continued move to the upside we would like to see 9254 hold as support followed by a close above 9386. A close above this level will likely see a retest of 9447, and a strong break above 9447 could see the DAX test 9620. If momentum remains strong a break and close above 9620 may result in a move back up to 9822.

On the downside we are watching for a break below 9322, which may then result in a retest of 9254. A break and close below 9254 could see a move down to 9135 followed by 9092. If momentum remains strong we could see a quick move down to 9016, and should the selling really gain strength we will be watching for sharp moves down to 8890 and 8681.

US

SP500 - 1917 ( +54 or +2.9% )

The S&P has now put in a significant double bottom. Will these low’s hold going forward?? We will be talking about this in more detail in our MEMBER PORTAL.

For a sustained move higher we would first like to see 1902 hold as support followed by a strong break of 1934. A strong break above 1934 may see the S&P test 1958 before another pause. A break above 1958 could result in a move to 1968, and should momentum remain strong we will watch for a move to 1990.

If we cannot break above 1934 we will watch for a retest of 1902. A break below 1902 may allow for a move back into 1875, and a strong break and close below 1875 may likely result in a quick move to 1865 before a pause. If the move to the downside continues sharp moves into 1834 and 1821-1817 are likely; and any subsequent breaks below this could see a retest of 1809.



FOREX

AUD/USD - 0.7148 ( +43 or +0.61% )

Despite closing slightly higher, the AUD was for the most part sideways all week.

VOLATILITY ALERT: Quarterly CapEx on Thursday.

For a move higher we would now see the AUD hold 0.7113, followed by a break and close above 0.7197. A break above this level may result in a move to 0.7229 - 0.7236 before a pause. Should we see a strong break and close above this area, the AUD could really rocket and we will then be watching for moves into 0.7305 and 0.7365.

If the AUD cannot hold 0.7113, we will be watching for a move back down to 0.7068. A break and close below below this could see quick moves into 0.7014 and 0.6997, and subsequent breaks below 0.6697 could see a quick moves down 0.6958, 0.6934 and finally 0.6917 before a pause. Should momentum remain strong to the downside, we will be watching for sharp moves down to 0.6830 and 0.6778.


EUR/USD - 1.1129 ( -126 or -1.12% )

A quiet week on the Euro saw some very small ranges last week. We will be watching for volatility to potentially pick up this week.

For a sustained move higher we would like to see strong breaks above 1.1163 and 1.1201. A break above 1.1201 may result in a retest of 1.1248, and if momentum remains strong we could see fast moves into 1.1347 and 1.1385 before a pause.

If the EURO cannot hold 1.1064 we will watch for a move back down to 1.1033 - 1.1026 before a pause. A strong break and close below this level may see the EURO move back down to 1.0977. If momentum remains very strong we could see a sharp move down to 1.0897.


GBP/USD - 1.4402 ( -102 or -0.7% )

In contrast to the EURO, the GBP was much more volatile as we inch closer to some major fundamental events currently playing out in the UK. These will be discussed in more detail in our MEMBER PORTAL.

For a move to the upside we would like to see 1.4259 hold as support, followed by a break of 1.4469. A break and close above this level could see the GBP retest 1.4635 before a pause. If the move to the upside is very strong, we will be watching for fast moves into 1.4790 and finally 1.4824.

On the downside, a strong break and close below 1.4382 could see a move down into 1.4259. A break and close below this level may result in quick moves to 1.4223 and 1.4194 before a pause. Should momentum to the downside remain strong, we will be watching for a sharp move down to 1.4039.


USD/JPY - 112.57 ( -64 or -0.57% )

The negative interest rate move announced by the BoJ has now been faded for the 3rd consecutive week. If the USD/JPY continues to fall we wonder- will the BoJ intervene again???

For a sustained move to the upside we like to see a strong break and close above 113.39. A break above may allow the USD/JPY to rally into 113.88, 114.08 - 114.14 before a pause. A break above 114.14 could result in a retest of 114.55, and if momentum remains strong we could see moves all the way higher into 115.53 and finally 116.08.

If the USD/JPY cannot close above 113.39, we will be watching for a move back down into 111.73. A break below this level may then result in a retest of 111.09. Should we see a strong break below 111.09 we could see a fast and sharp move all the way down to 109.94.


COMMODITIES

GOLD - 1226 ( -11 or -0.89% )

Gold was sideways for the most part of last week and as such our levels remain unchanged. We are still near an important level and will be discussing this further in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.

For a continued move to the upside we would first like to see 1222 hold, followed by a strong break and close above 1247. A break above 1247 may result in a retest of 1258, and if momentum remains very strong we could see another push into 1276 before a pause.

For a sustained move to the downside we would like to see GOLD break and close below 1222. A strong break below this level could result in a move back down to 1206. Should momentum to the downside remain strong we may see GOLD trade back down to 1187, 1181 and 1167.


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